Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Millington, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 4:46PM Monday November 19, 2018 10:28 AM EST (15:28 UTC) Moonrise 3:07PMMoonset 2:44AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 636 Am Est Mon Nov 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night...
Today..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 636 Am Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A weak area of low pressure north of the waters will pull off to the northeast today as a frontal boundary lingers nearby. Another wave of low pressure will move across the waters tonight as a cold front sweeps through on Tuesday. A more potent cold front will navigate across the waters late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Strong canadian high pressure will build over the waters for the remainder of the work week. Small craft advisories may be required for portions of the waters Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Millington, MD
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location: 39.26, -75.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 191136
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
636 am est Mon nov 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure over the canadian maritimes continues to drift
out to sea. Meanwhile, several weak clipper systems will move
across the region through Tuesday. A cold front crosses the area
Wednesday night. Arctic high pressure builds east for
thanksgiving and moves offshore on Friday. Another storm system
may affect the area next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
630 am update: fog and low stratus have become denser and more
prevalent as expected early this morning. Issued sps to cover
the threat, as the fog is quite variable transient (i.E., not
widespread and or dense enough for an advisory). Temperatures in
rural new jersey are slightly below freezing, so a few sites
have reported freezing fog at times (e.G., kvay kmjx). Suspect
that the occurrence of this is highly localized given the
overall patchy nature of the fog and marginal temperatures.

The fog may persist into mid morning but is expected to
dissipate gradually thereafter. Forecast is in good shape at
the moment, so no changes were made at this time.

Previous discussion...

a weak perturbation is moving through the northern mid-atlantic
at this time, with a band of (very) light rain snow traversing
southern new york and central pennsylvania. The strongest lift
with the perturbation is to the north of the cwa, with only
sprinkles flurries occurring in the poconos and vicinity so far.

Have diminished pops considerably late tonight and early
tomorrow, since measurable precipitation looks quite difficult
to come by, in general.

Meanwhile, sky cover and visibility forecasts remain quite
challenging, with highly variable conditions occurring across
the area. A low cloud deck persists in the northern CWA near the
aforementioned band of precipitation, but farther south, the
low clouds scatter out. High clouds continue within relatively
strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow. However, these clouds
are not enough to prevent the formation of some patchy fog
generally south of the i-78 corridor. Have maintained mention of
patchy fog through mid morning, with the expectation that
visibilities will be worst right around and just after sunrise.

Already seeing some visibilities go down to about a mile in
delmarva, and I suspect these lower visibilities will become
more prevalent farther north into southeast pa southern nj for a
brief period of time.

As the perturbation lifts out this morning, the area will be in
a region of fairly neutral advection. However, upstream, a weak
surface low will develop and move into the appalachians by
afternoon, with warm advection commencing again immediately
downstream. Though cloudiness will continue to be variable,
would expect an increase with time as this warm advection
increases. Additionally, some light precipitation should break
out or redevelop to our west in concert with the increase in
low-level isentropic ascent. The question is how far east this
precipitation will make it, with overall consensus suggesting it
will have a hard time entering the cwa, at least through the
day. Cannot discount pops entirely, at least from the lehigh
valley northwestward, but given that the region will remain
rather displaced from the stronger lift (which is not all that
strong anyway), am rather skeptical that measurable
precipitation will spread into even these areas during the day.

The temperature forecast is somewhat tricky owing to
uncertainty with cloud cover, but the periods of warm advection
and broad west- southwest midlevel flow downstream of a
developing surface low suggest temperatures will be warmer
today, perhaps by quite a bit according to mav ecs guidance. The
met looks too cold based on the past two days' observed maximum
temperatures. Generally used a blend of the warmer statistical
guidance and continuity, which generally raised temperatures 1-3
degrees from the previous forecast. I am somewhat worried the
temps are still too low, especially from the urban corridor
southeastward.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
A weak surface low will move northeastward through the region
tonight, downstream of a digging vort MAX approaching the
eastern ohio valley by the end of the period. A combination of
differential cyclonic vorticity advection downstream of the vort
max and fairly strong concentrated low-level isentropic ascent
along the northeastward-extending baroclinic zone should allow
for some light precipitation to develop and move through much of
northern central pennsylvania and northern new jersey during
the night. The lift diminishes quickly to the southeast of the
fall line, and I have diminished pops accordingly in these areas
overnight, though a few showers down to the urban corridor are
plausible, especially late as the vort MAX makes its push
eastward. Temperatures look fairly warm, at least southeast of
the poconos and far northwest new jersey, so most of the
precipitation is expected to be liquid. However, thermal
profiles are questionable enough to include a mention of rain or
snow north of i-80, with the potential likely greatest near
sunrise as some cooling aloft permits most of the profile to be
near below freezing, even with slightly above-freezing surface
temps. Given the light QPF and warm surface, not expecting
appreciable snow accumulations overnight in these
areas... Perhaps a a couple tenths in the higher elevations.

Temperatures will be warmer tonight with increased cloud cover
as the vort MAX approaches. Used a statistical guidance blend,
which suggests lows near freezing in the poconos, in the mid 40s
along the beaches and lower delmarva, and in the upper 30s to
lower 40s elsewhere.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Weak clipper system moves through the region on Tuesday. Models
trending a bit dryer, and cold air will be limited to the
southern poconos, northern nj, and lehigh valley, where snow in
the morning mixes with rain as the afternoon progresses. Qpf
amounts on Tuesday will generally be less than 1 10", and less
than an inch of snow is possible for the southern poconos and
northern nj.

A cold front ahead of an arctic airmass approaches on Wednesday
and moves south through the region late Wednesday night and
thanksgiving morning. Upper trough with strong shortwave energy
remains north and east of the region, so any precip with the
passage of the front will be limited to the southern poconos and
northern nj. For now, will cap pops at chance Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Since the atmosphere will be fairly dry,
qpf amounts will be limited, and snowfall amounts may be less
than an inch.

From there, a bitterly cold airmass seeps southward into the
northeast and mid-atlantic. 850 mb temps will fall to around
-10c in DELMARVA and to -19c in the southern poconos and
northern nj. Lows Wednesday night will drop into the teens and
low 20s, and highs on thanksgiving will not be much higher than
what will occur around midnight or so Wednesday night. Daytime
temperatures on thanksgiving will remain in the teens and 20s,
maybe touching freezing in southern delmarva. Thanksgiving
night, lows will drop into the single digits in the southern
poconos, and otherwise in the teens for most of southeast pa and
nj, and in the low 20s in delmarva.

Wind chills will largely be in the teens for most of the region
Wednesday night through thanksgiving night, and maybe as low as
10 below in the southern poconos.

High pressure from the north and west builds overhead by Friday
morning, then moves offshore during the day. Return flow sets
up behind the high, and temperatures begin to warm back up going
into the weekend.

A storm system then develops over the gulf coast and southeast
and appears on models to make a run up the coast over the
weekend. Current model trends have temperatures warm enough to
keep precip mostly as rain for the duration.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

This morning... Highly variable conditions expected, with
occasional sub-vfr (possibly ifr or worse) CIGS and or vsbys
with low stratus and fog. Conditions should gradually become
more consistentlyVFR after mid morning, but unsure of the
timing given the highly variable nature of the stratus fog.

Winds light variable. Very low confidence.

This afternoon... Improvement to predominantlyVFR, though brief
sub-vfr conditions may occur if lower clouds develop,
especially (but not confined to) northwest of phl. Winds
light variable. Low confidence.

Tonight... Periods of sub-vfr probable, especially after
midnight and especially north west of phl. Rain may occur at
rdg abe, though effects at the terminals would be minimal. Winds
light variable. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday... MVFR or ifr with rain snow possible at krdg kabe and
rain elsewhere. Improving conditions late.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...VFR.

Wednesday night through Thursday... MainlyVFR. Gusty N winds.

Friday...VFR.

Marine
Sub-advisory winds seas are expected through the period with
generally fair weather. Winds will predominantly be
southwesterly from 5 to 15 kts, possibly with gusts to 20 kts or
so overnight. Seas will primarily be near or below 3 feet.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday... SCA conditions possible with wind
gusts to 25 kt.

Wednesday night... A period of gale force winds is possible
Wednesday evening. Otherwise, SCA conditions with gusty nw
winds. There is a chance for freezing spray, mainly across
northern ocean zones.

Thursday... SCA conditions possible. Freezing spray possible.

Thursday night through Friday... Conditions subside to sub-sca
conditions.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Cms
short term... Cms
long term... Mps
aviation... Cms mps
marine... Cms mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 19 mi41 min ENE 1 G 1.9 42°F 46°F1020.5 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 22 mi41 min WNW 1 G 1 45°F 46°F1020.3 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 24 mi119 min SW 1 43°F 1020 hPa43°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 25 mi41 min SW 6 G 6 45°F 50°F1020.1 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 26 mi41 min Calm G 1 43°F 42°F1020.2 hPa
CPVM2 34 mi41 min 47°F 42°F
FSNM2 36 mi41 min Calm G 1.9 44°F 1019.7 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 37 mi41 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 44°F 1020.2 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 38 mi35 min 47°F 1020.6 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 39 mi47 min SE 1 G 1 45°F 51°F1019.8 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 39 mi41 min 47°F 1019.8 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 40 mi29 min S 4.1 G 4.1 46°F 49°F1020.9 hPa (+0.0)42°F
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 43 mi41 min 1020.8 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 44 mi47 min 42°F 44°F1020.1 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 49 mi47 min 51°F 49°F1020.1 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dover Air Force Base, DE21 mi2.5 hrsN 00.25 miFog42°F42°F99%1021 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD23 mi2.6 hrsN 30.25 miFog39°F39°F100%1021 hPa

Wind History from DOV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE8E6E5E6E9E7E6SE5SE5SE5SE6S4S3CalmCalmS3S3SE4S4S4CalmS3Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Millington, Maryland
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Millington
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Mon -- 02:44 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:03 AM EST     2.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:19 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:56 PM EST     2.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.81.21.622.22.11.81.51.10.70.40.20.30.61.21.72.12.22.11.91.61.30.9

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:05 AM EST     0.04 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:43 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:33 AM EST     2.03 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:17 AM EST     -0.09 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:28 AM EST     -1.95 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 01:03 PM EST     0.07 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:04 PM EST     1.98 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:49 PM EST     -0.07 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:48 PM EST     -1.78 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.311.6221.60.7-1.1-1.6-1.9-1.9-1.6-1.1-0.31.21.721.81.2-0.5-1.3-1.7-1.8-1.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.