Saturday, March25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairlee, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:24PM Saturday March 25, 2017 11:41 AM EDT (15:41 UTC) Moonrise 4:37AMMoonset 3:50PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1032 Am Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Sunday evening...
Rest of today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain with patchy drizzle.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain with patchy drizzle.
Sun night..SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
ANZ500 1032 Am Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain over bermuda through today. A backdoor cold front will pass through the area tonight before returning north as a warm front Monday. A cold front is expected to cross the chesapeake bay region Tuesday night. Small craft advisories are likely Sunday night through Monday. Another small craft advisory is possible Wednesday behind the cold front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairlee, MD
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location: 39.29, -76.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 251411
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1011 am edt Sat mar 25 2017

Synopsis
A cold front over the southern tier of new york will sag south
across our area this afternoon and evening, becoming nearly
stationary just south of delaware on Sunday. It then returns slowly
north as a warm front into our area Monday and Tuesday. Low pressure
crosses new jersey Tuesday evening pulling the front out to sea.

Canadian high pressure follows into the northeast united states late
Wednesday and Thursday. Low pressure in the nations midsection on
Friday develops a warm front toward our area.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
As of mid-morning, broken mid and high-level clouds are moving
across the area, with more solid clouds noted north of a frontal
boundary roughly along the ny/pa border. Radar shows bands of
light precip falling but mostly not reaching the ground.

Temperatures range from around 40 in far northern nj to around
60 in southern de. This contrast will continue or even increase
a bit during today with somewhat greater daytime heating
expected over delmava and southern nj. The frontal boundary
noted above has started to push south into northern nj and this
trend will continue through the afternoon. Increasing clouds and
ne winds will limit heating over northern nj and adjacent pa
where afternoon highs are expected to be only in the 50s to low
60s. The chances for light rain or sprinkles will also increase
behind the front.

Previous discussion below:
mild and dry weather early will be replaced by clouds and
higher chances for showers from north to south today. The
northern half of the area will have pops >= 50 % today and these
tail off to the south. A front will be moving N to S today and
cooler air will seep in behind it. Before the front moves thru
high temperatures will reach the 50s over the north and mid 70s
over delmarva. Readings will trend downward once the front
passes. Models are offering somewhat different solutions with
regards to coverage and timing of showers. Confid in precip
timing is rather limited.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday/
The front continues to drop southward across the area and there
are better chances for overcast skies and scattered showers
along with it. Temperatures will slowly fall through the night
reaching the low/mid 30s across the higher elevations to the
north and mid 40s over delmarva. The precipitation could become
a little ice at the highest elevations across the southern
poconos late tonight. It appears the the chances will be low
enough as to not have to issue an advisory at this point.

Long term /Sunday through Friday/
**damp weather will be featured tonight - Tuesday**
500 mb: a strong ridge over the northeast usa Sunday weakens
considerably as a southern stream closed low in the ohio valley
opens up and moves into the northeast on Monday. It is followed
by a northern stream short wave in central canada Tuesday,
which intensifies into quebec Wednesday. The next southern
stream short wave should affect our area toward the end of the
week.

Temperatures: calendar day averages 5 to 10 degrees above normal
Monday, 10 to 15 above normal Tuesday, 5 to 10 degrees above
normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday and Friday.

Forecast basis: 50 50 blended 00z/25 gfs/nam MOS Sunday-Monday
blended downward with 2m NAM temps, then 00z/25 mexmos Monday
night-Tuesday and thereafter wpc guidance Tuesday night-Friday.

The dailies...

Sunday... There may need to be an icing hazard for the poconos
and far northwest nj (elevations north of i80). Despite warm
ground, if rain or drizzle develops as expected, it would glaze
on trees/wires, bridges and overpasses first. While QPF amounts
would not be heavy, the upslope and misty rain expected could
add up to a tenth of an inch of radial icing. Thats a worst case
scenario. Elsewhere... Much much cooler Sunday afternoon compared
to this Saturday afternoon S of i-78 (20-25f cooler). Stratus
overcast and chance of a little light rain or drizzle but
confidence on rain/drizzle occurrence is average. East to
northeast wind may gust 15-20 mph.

Monday... East-west front south of delaware attempts to edge
north as a warm front. Not convinced about how far north it can
move due to mostly west southwest flow aloft. The boundary layer
will be quite moist and there should patchy fog and measurable
drizzle/scattered showers in a cool inverted marine layer. Some
of the fog could be quite thick, especially elevations, near the
waters and along the warm front. I think the cooler NAM should
be more accurate, but since there is considerable uncertainty,
the forecast result was blended temps between the warmer and
cooler model solutions.

Tuesday... May be our best chance to warm up... And thin out the
murky low level cloudiness. Uncertainty. Also, a short wave
should organize low pressure development somewhere in the mid
atlantic states with a batch of showers, especially near the
convergence associated with the low center Tuesday evening.

In terms of hydrology, given the above normal temperatures
through the long term, the snow pack north of i-78 will continue
to melt. The model consensus brings additional rainfall amounts
of three quarters of an inch to two inches across this area
through Tuesday evening. Unless there are significant changes,
we expect rises on area streams and rivers, but no flooding
concerns at this time.

Tides Sunday and Monday sunrise: at this time... Expected to
remain below advisory threshold but will be monitored.

Wednesday... Clearing with north or northwesterly flow.

Thursday... Increasing clouds later on. Small chance pcpn arrives
thu night?
Friday... Southern stream short wave crossing the lower mississippi
valley should spread precipitation into our area, mostly rain.

Aviation /14z Saturday through Wednesday/
Vfr conditions in most areas early this morning with mostly ci/cs
clouds over the area. There could be a few patchy lower clouds or
some light fog before dawn, but mostly good weather early today
before a front moves thru and brings poorer conditions from N to s.

Cigs will decrease as the chcs for rains develop this afternoon and
persist into tonight. Ifr conditions with rain and fog will arrive
over most areas. Timing of the decreases is somewhat uncertain.

Winds will shift to E or NE behind the front. The ifr conditions
will persist into Sunday morning.

Outlook...

Sunday and Sunday night... CIGS 500-1500 ft vsby ocnl below 3 mi in
patchy rain/drizzle/fog with icing on the ridges of NE pa and
nw nj in layers below 3000 ft msl. Patchy lifr in st/fog/drizzle
possible late at night. East northeast flow. Confidence: above
average.

Monday and Monday night... Ifr conditions with periods of rain and
drizzle. Patchy lifr possible. Easterly flow may turn southeast
to south Monday afternoon or night vcnty kmiv/kacy/kilg.

Confidence: average.

Tuesday... Ifr conditions to start the day could improve toVFR
cigs in the afternoon with a light south to southwest flow?
confidence: below average due to the position uncertainty of
the northward moving warm front.

Wednesday... Morning MVFR orVFR CIGS becoming sct clouds near 4000
ft in the afternoon. Northwest wind gusty 20 kt. Confidence:
above average.

Marine
Seas continue to slowly decrease on the northern nj coastal waters.

It looks like we will be able to drop the SCA flag for these waters
with the 330 issuance. Seas could linger close to 5 ft thru dawn
however. At 630 it looks like we will need another SCA flag for
tonight and into Sunday with a NE flow behind the front bringing
seas back up and gusts also should be around 25 kts. Looks like
just the NRN nj waters will need the SCA for now the Sat night
period. Scat showers expected later this afternoon and tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday-Sunday night... Small craft advisory in effect for the nj
waters for combined seas increasing to 5 or 6 feet and
scattered gusts 25 kt.

Elsewhere, no SCA at this time for the de waters though this is
being monitored. Confidence: average.

Monday-Tuesday... Winds may be below advisory levels, but seas could
remain elevated, possibly leading to small craft advisory levels
for the nj and de atlantic waters. Confidence: average.

Wednesday... Northwest wind... Gusty 20 kt. Small chance gusty 25
kt. SCA possible but not likely. Confidence: average.

Climate
Record high temperatures today march 25 for reference... Not
impossible to see one or 2 about 2f from record... Closest
possibilities appear to be acy ged
acy-79 1963
phl-82 1910
ilg-80-1939
abe-77 1988, 1963
ttn-78 1963
ged-79 1959
rdg-81 1910
mpo-72 1939
march monthly average temp: while the negative departures will
diminish considerably the next few days... The month as a whole
for phl is currently expected to end up about one half to 1
degree below normal.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am Sunday to 2 am edt Monday for
anz452-453.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 2 am edt Monday
for anz450-451.

Synopsis... Drag
near term... Amc/o'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Drag
aviation... Drag/o'hara
marine... Drag/johnson/klein/o'hara
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 6 mi42 min SSW 7 G 8.9 64°F 45°F1022.1 hPa (+0.0)
FSNM2 18 mi42 min WSW 5.1 G 7 67°F 1021.4 hPa (+0.0)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 19 mi42 min W 1.9 G 2.9 65°F 1021.7 hPa (+0.0)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 21 mi42 min W 2.9 G 6 67°F 45°F1021.4 hPa (+0.0)
CPVM2 23 mi42 min 53°F 47°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 26 mi42 min 53°F 1021.4 hPa (+0.0)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 26 mi42 min SSW 7 G 11 65°F 44°F1021.1 hPa (+0.0)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 30 mi42 min SSE 13 G 13 57°F 45°F47°F
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 38 mi42 min 65°F 44°F1021.1 hPa (+0.0)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 38 mi42 min SW 6 G 8 65°F 44°F1021.5 hPa (+0.0)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 42 mi87 min SSW 8.9 67°F 1022 hPa51°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 43 mi42 min N 5.1 G 6 58°F 42°F1021.4 hPa (+0.0)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 45 mi132 min SSW 5.1 64°F 1023 hPa48°F

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD12 mi1.7 hrsWSW 610.00 miFair58°F48°F68%1022.7 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD13 mi57 minN 010.00 miOvercast64°F53°F68%1022.3 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD22 mi1.8 hrsno data mi64°F46°F54%1022.8 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD23 mi67 minS 57.00 miFair with Haze68°F50°F53%1022.3 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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S13SW11SW12S10SW6SW5SW5W3W4W4W4NW3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmW4W6W8
1 day agoW54S9S9S9S9S8SW5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3S4S3S43SW13
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2 days agoN11
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N115--------N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm6Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Worton Creek entrance, Maryland
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Worton Creek entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:55 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:19 AM EDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:49 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:56 PM EDT     1.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.30.40.60.91.21.31.31.10.90.60.30.10.10.20.50.81.21.41.51.41.20.90.7

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:16 AM EDT     0.66 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:11 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:12 AM EDT     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:05 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:24 PM EDT     0.88 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:35 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:45 PM EDT     -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.5-0.20.20.50.70.60.40.1-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.4-00.40.70.90.80.60.3-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.