Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairlee, MD

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Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 8:36PM Thursday June 20, 2019 7:45 PM EDT (23:45 UTC) Moonrise 10:19PMMoonset 7:32AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 737 Pm Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from midnight edt tonight through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..W winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt until early morning. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms through the night.
Tue..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 737 Pm Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure tracking to the north will sweep a cold front through the area tonight. High pressure nudging southward from canada will dominate over the waters through the weekend. A warm front will then cross the waters Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairlee, MD
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location: 39.29, -76.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 202240
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
640 pm edt Thu jun 20 2019

Synopsis
An area of low pressure will move to our north tonight, pulling a
cold front across the area tonight, with a second front or surface
trough moving across the area Friday morning. Steady northwest flow
will develop Friday into Saturday, before high pressure briefly
affects the area Saturday night, before shifting offshore and to our
south Sunday. A warm front will lift across the area Sunday night
into Monday as an area of low pressure moves across the great lakes
region into southeast canada. High pressure builds to our south
through the middle of next week, while a surface trough develops
across the east coast.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
630 pm update: adjusted temp, dewpoint, pop, and weather grids
to match current trends. The secondary round of showers and
storms has proven to be less robust than originally forecast,
so generally lowered pops area wide. Still expecting the broken
line of showers and storms across NE pa to continue moving
southeast into our forecast area over the next couple of hours.

It appears that the biggest flash flood and severe risk has
ended, but we still cannot rule out additional threats with the
storms moving through the evening and early overnight hours.

Previous discussion... Several round of showers and
thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon, this evening, and
overnight across the area. Each is tied to a short
wave vorticity impulse that will move across the area at
different times. The first is moving across the area this
afternoon. The second will come by sunset this evening, while
the third will come overnight around or after midnight.

An area of low pressure will move to our north tonight, which will
bring a cold front across the area. Until this front moves across
the area, the airmass will remain very moist with pw values 1.75-
2.00 inches. Meanwhile, CAPE values have reached 1,500-2,000+ j kg
for much of the area this afternoon now that the warm front has
lifted north of the area. With mid level flow increasing to 30-40
knots, bulk shear has increased to 35-45 knots. This should be
sufficient to allow for some storms to become severe, potentially
producing damaging winds and hail.

As mentioned, the airmass remains very moist, so any showers and
thunderstorms could produce very heavy rainfall in a short amount of
time. An additional 1-3 inches is possible for some locations, which
would produce additional flash flooding, especially those areas that
received a lot of rainfall last night. Therefore the flash flood
watch remains in effect into the overnight hours.

There is also a chance for patchy fog to develop later tonight,
especially for northeast pennsylvania and northern new jersey where
any winds become lighter and rain falls this afternoon and evening.

We do not expect dense fog as there will likely be some wind and
enough mixing with any additional short wave vorticity impulses and
showers moving through.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Saturday night
The low pressure will continue moving to our northeast offshore of
new england through Friday. It will drag a surface trough across the
area during the morning while a short wave vorticity impulse moves
across the area. As this impulse moves across during the morning,
another round of showers will impact the area through the morning
hours. There is very little, if any instability, so we do not expect
thunderstorms. However, pw values remain 1.50-1.75 inches until the
through moves through, so some showers could have a brief period of
moderate to heavy rainfall. Once the showers move through the area,
skies will begin to clear out and winds will become gusty as there
will be a tight gradient with low pressure to our northeast and high
pressure to our northwest. This will likely lead to be quite gusty
during the day Friday, possibly reaching 20-30 mph.

High pressure remains to our west for Friday night into Saturday,
briefly building over the area Saturday night. This will keep dry
conditions across the area through Friday night and Saturday. Winds
will likely gust again Saturday, but not as gusty as Friday,
generally 15-20 mph.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
Overview...

we will finally see some changes in the long term, as the mid-
atlantic will for a few days find itself downstream of a ridge over
the great lakes and upstream a departing trough associated with a
departing surface low. This will mean a well-deserved multi-day
break in rainfall across our area, as high pressure builds in to the
northwest and guides any ridge-riding convective disturbances to our
south. And such disturbances will exist, as the ridging to our west
is not very long in wavelength, and ample troughing continues to
exist further west, which will keep the pattern active over the
plains and midwest. That then raises questions for our weather going
further into next week. It appears likely the ridge to our west will
start to flatten out, with renewed troughing pushing into the great
lakes. Thus, it is likely we will be dealing with another frontal
system by early next week. Early indications are that we will not
deal with such a prolonged and impactful stretch of unsettled
weather. However, the one constant in the hemispheric pattern
remains a seemingly unbreakable block over greenland, which should
briefly relax over the weekend but then looks to build right back in
next week. Because of this, even as longwave ridging attempts to
build over the conus, we continue to see frequent troughing over
southern canada with the trough unable to lift out. This leaves us
vulnerable to additional frontal disturbances even in a pattern
which is trying to trend warmer and drier overall. We may get there
eventually, but for now after the break over the weekend it appears
next week will be on the unsettled side with a return of higher
humidity and occasional shower and storm chances.

Dailies...

Sunday... A pleasant and quiet weekend awaits us as high
pressure moves overhead. The trough from Friday will still not
have fully pulled away by Saturday, and flow will remain
northerly or northwesterly, so this will keep temperatures a
little below normal even with sunshine. By Sunday, winds turn
out of the west as the trough pushes further off to the east,
and we start to advect in warmer air. So Sunday looks several
degrees warmer than Saturday, with highs mostly in the mid 80s
and dew points creeping up a little but still comfortable.

Monday-Tuesday... A warm frontal passage is expected Sunday night or
early Monday as low pressure tracks into the great lakes. Time
constraints prevented any detailed analysis for this period, but the
chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to return. In addition,
behind the warm front, higher dew points and warmer temperatures are
expected, and some areas may see highs approach 90 by Monday.

Mid-week beyond... Low confidence. Guidance is widely spread on
whether the early week system or an additional frontal system may
continue to impact the region, or if high pressure and hotter
weather will build in. No strong preference at this time.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Outside of showers and thunderstorms,VFR conditions
will continue through this afternoon into this evening. Winds
will remain southwest for the rest of the afternoon into this
evening.

Another round of showers is expected later this evening and
overnight. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible. Conditions are
expected to lower to MVFR later this evening and possibly ifr
overnight for some areas. Winds will shift to the west through the
overnight and become light for some areas.

Friday... MVFR or ifr conditions will start the forecast for Friday
morning. A slow improvement is expected through the morning into the
afternoon toVFR. Winds will become gusty out of the northwest by
later morning into the afternoon. Wind could gust 20-25 knots.

Outlook...

Friday night-Saturday night...VFR conditions expected.

Northwest winds may gust 15-20 knots during the day Saturday.

Sunday... VFR. High confidence. Southwesterly winds 5 to 10 kt.

Sunday night-Monday... Periods of cig and vsby restrictions
possible along with scattered showers and tstms. Southwest winds
of 5 to 10 kt.

Marine
Timing of the small craft advisory has been adjusted as winds
along the delaware and new jersey atlantic coastal waters are
already gusting around 25 knots. The northern new jersey
atlantic coastal waters was started earlier as well as seas may
build sooner. Delaware bay was left as it is.

All advisories will continue through the day Friday. An
occasional wind gust may reach close to 35 knots on Friday.

Outlook...

Friday night-Saturday night... Conditions expected to drop below
advisory levels by Friday night and remain below advisory
levels through Saturday night.

Sunday-Tuesday... Sub-sca conditions expected for most of the
weekend into early next week.

Rip currents...

there is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at
the nj and de ocean beaches today. Winds become south with waves in
the surf zone about 3 feet.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Flash flood watch until 10 pm edt this evening for paz054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.

Nj... Flash flood watch until 10 pm edt this evening for njz001-
007>010-012>027.

De... Flash flood watch until 10 pm edt this evening for dez001.

Md... Flash flood watch until 10 pm edt this evening for mdz008-012.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Friday for anz451>455.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 6 pm edt
Friday for anz450.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Friday for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Robertson staarmann
short term... Robertson
long term... O'brien
aviation... Robertson o'brien
marine... Robertson o'brien


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 6 mi45 min NW 11 G 12 999.1 hPa (-0.3)
FSNM2 18 mi51 min WNW 16 G 20
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 19 mi45 min WNW 17 G 22 84°F 998.7 hPa (-0.3)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 21 mi45 min N 9.9 G 13 998.6 hPa (-0.0)
CPVM2 23 mi45 min 78°F 76°F
44063 - Annapolis 26 mi27 min SSW 7.8 G 7.8 78°F 77°F999.1 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 26 mi45 min 80°F 998.3 hPa (-0.3)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 26 mi45 min WNW 6 G 8.9 998.9 hPa (-0.5)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 30 mi45 min W 1.9 G 2.9 81°F 76°F999.7 hPa (-0.5)65°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 38 mi51 min NW 5.1 G 9.9 998.7 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 38 mi51 min 998.2 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD12 mi2 hrsWSW 137.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F66°F52%998.9 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD13 mi60 minW 12 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F64°F49%999.3 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD22 mi51 minno data mi86°F62°F45%998.6 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD23 mi65 minSSW 510.00 miLight Rain79°F73°F84%999 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3------------------CalmS3SW4SW7SW8S6S6SW6S13S6W5--W13W7
1 day agoSW7------------------CalmCalmS5S3S3S5SW4CalmS6S7S5S7SW4S6
2 days ago--S4----------------CalmE3CalmCalmCalmS3SW5S6SW9S6SW8W11W9--

Tide / Current Tables for Worton Creek entrance, Maryland
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Worton Creek entrance
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Thu -- 03:57 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:43 AM EDT     2.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:06 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:10 PM EDT     1.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.210.70.60.50.60.81.21.61.92.12.22.11.81.51.20.90.70.60.60.81.11.31.5

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Thu -- 01:41 AM EDT     -0.52 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:10 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:53 AM EDT     1.03 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:15 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:41 PM EDT     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:25 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:02 PM EDT     0.56 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:56 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.10.30.70.910.90.60.1-0.4-0.8-1-1-0.9-0.6-0.20.20.50.60.50.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.