Monday, June24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essex, MD

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Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:38PM Monday June 24, 2019 1:24 PM EDT (17:24 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 11:23AM Illumination 53% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 1037 Am Edt Mon Jun 24 2019
Rest of today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Scattered showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Wed night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Thu..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1037 Am Edt Mon Jun 24 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will slowly lift northward across the area today while a weak cold front approaches from the ohio valley. The cold front will cross early Tuesday as it weakens further. High pressure will build from the tennessee valley toward the mid-atlantic during the second half of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essex, MD
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location: 39.29, -76.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 241432
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1032 am edt Mon jun 24 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will lift north through the region today, with a
weak cold front also approaching from the west. The cold front
pushes through Tuesday, but will be very weak, likely having no
cooling effect on temperatures. Hot and humid through the end of
the week, as high pressure builds in from the tennessee valley,
eventually moving offshore late this week into the weekend.

Next frontal system could push through this weekend.

Near term through tonight
Warm front arcs from eastern WV panhandle across the central va
piedmont as of mid morning, and the intersection of this with
differential heating terrain boundaries and a subtle
perturbationleftover from convection yesterday evening over
the ohio valley is expected to initiate scattered thunderstorms
shortly after noon. A few storms could be strong with isolated
damaging wind gusts possible, though lapse rates CAPE shear are
more marginal until later this afternoon and evening. With
weaker flow aloft this afternoon and the presence of a slowly
advancing surface warm front, locally heavy rainfall is possible
as well. Most of the afternoon activity (at least the more
intense updrafts) should stay generally west and south of the
dc baltimore metro areas.

A shortwave trough will push through the great lakes later this
afternoon, with an area of surface low pressure tracking along
with it. The cold front associated with the low will approach
the area from the west late this afternoon into the evening. A
line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to push through at
least western portions of the region late this evening. The
storm prediction has western portions of the CWA in a slight
risk for severe weather as a result, with areas east of the blue
ridge only in a marginal, as the storms should run out of steam
as they track to the east. However, if the line does get
organized enough, it could very well maintain itself and track
east along the warm front. This could lead to increased severe
threat east of the blue ridge. At this time, not much guidance
is supporting that, but will have to monitor the development of
the line as it approaches.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
With the weak cold front near the chesapeake bay by early Tuesday
morning, any chance of showers will be coming to an end with drying
westerly flow. Some moisture banked up against the appalachians may
result in a few showers along the allegheny front through the
morning. Otherwise, the front is cold in name only, with high
temperatures near or even slightly warmer than what they will be
today (mid 80s - low 90s), with downsloping offsetting any minimal
cold advection. Dew points will be lower though, making it feel less
humid. There will also be a breeze, which will be strongest in the
morning.

Surface high pressure will build across the area Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. With weak flow, the very warm airmass will
remain in place, although dew points will be slower to rise through
the lower and mid 60s. There will be a trough to the northwest on
Wednesday, and some convection may fire along it. Some of these
showers and storms may approach the potomac highlands and northern
maryland late in the afternoon or evening, but should be in a
dissipating state if they occur due to loss of diurnal heating and
the strong ridge to the southeast.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
The mid and upper level ridge will be building Thursday and Friday
while the surface high remains nearby. This should largely suppress
convection, though wouldn't totally rule out a stray "airmass"
shower or storm with increasing humidity and potential for terrain
circulations and subtle perturbations in the flow. More areas will
likely reach highs in the 90s. Current most-likely heat index
forecasts range from 95-100, short of headline criteria. Overnight
lows may fail to drop below 70, especially by Friday night.

Heights begin falling Saturday as a closed low drops from hudson bay
toward new england. This may result in a little better chance for
pop-up storms. There is still some model spread on the timing of the
associated cold front dropping southward through the area, which
could ultimately determine which day of the weekend has the highest
storm chances. If this front can indeed press south sometime over
the weekend or early next week, there should be a slight reprieve
from the heat.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
Showers and storms become much more likely in the
afternoon evening hours at all terminals, but especially mrb.

Could see very heavy rainfall, along with some gusty winds, so
restrictions to ifr are a possibility. Best chance for first
round of tsra near mrb possibly to near cho 18-22z. Generally
expecting flow out of the SW at 5-10 kts throughout the day, but
again, could see some higher gusts in stronger thunderstorms,
especially at mrb. Rain chances decrease through tonight, with
vfr conditions expected to prevail once more.

Westerly winds may gust to around 20 kt Tuesday behind the weak cold
front, andVFR conditions will prevail. High pressure will build
across the area Wednesday through Friday. Storm chances will be
minimal and winds will be light.

Marine
Southwest flow expected today across the region, which will lead
to some enhanced wind gusts on the waters, which will reach sca
criteria in the central bay, so have maintained the small craft
advisory for that area this afternoon through tonight. An
isolated stronger thunderstorm is possible this afternoon and
evening, especially south of the bay bridge on the chesapeake
and over the tidal potomac river.

Winds will turn westerly early Tuesday morning in the wake of a weak
cold front. There could be several hours of marginal SCA conditions,
especially across northern parts of the bay, but don't have the
confidence to issue an advisory at this time.

High pressure will then build over the area Wednesday through
Friday. Winds will be from a southerly or westerly direction and
should remain below advisory criteria. A pop-up storm in heat and
humidity can't totally be ruled out, but chances are very small.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for anz534-537-543.

Synopsis... Cjl
near term... Dhof cjl
short term... Ads
long term... Ads
aviation... Ads dhof cjl
marine... Ads dhof cjl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSNM2 6 mi61 min E 8 G 8.9 77°F 1011.9 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 6 mi55 min SE 8.9 G 9.9 76°F 1011.8 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 7 mi55 min S 7 G 8 78°F 76°F1011.4 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 13 mi61 min SW 5.1 G 7 78°F 77°F1012.1 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 21 mi55 min 83°F 1011.5 hPa
CPVM2 21 mi55 min 77°F 73°F
44063 - Annapolis 23 mi43 min S 9.7 G 12 76°F 77°F1012 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 27 mi85 min SE 11 G 11 75°F 75°F1013.1 hPa (-0.6)67°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 38 mi55 min SSW 5.1 G 8 81°F 78°F1012 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 41 mi55 min S 8 G 8.9 82°F 79°F1011.8 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD4 mi40 minESE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F71°F70%1012.5 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD8 mi31 minno data mi85°F66°F55%1011.5 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD13 mi31 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy88°F64°F46%1011.1 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD20 mi99 minS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F64°F61%1012.5 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD21 mi31 minSE 1210.00 miFair81°F71°F72%1012 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD21 mi43 minSW 410.00 mi82°F68°F62%1012.5 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD23 mi45 minSSE 910.00 miFair86°F68°F55%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE9SE9SE11SE8SE9S5S5SW3S3SW3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SW4SE4SE6SE6SE8
1 day agoN7NW8NW10NW9W8NW8NW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmW5CalmW3CalmW3NW6NW8N4CalmCalm
2 days agoW22
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Tide / Current Tables for Bowley Bar, Middle River, Maryland
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Bowley Bar
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:17 AM EDT     1.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:02 AM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:09 PM EDT     1.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:52 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.51.51.31.10.90.80.80.80.91.11.41.51.61.61.41.20.90.70.60.50.60.81

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Mon -- 12:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:20 AM EDT     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:57 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:08 AM EDT     0.58 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:03 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:34 PM EDT     -0.81 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:59 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.2-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.200.30.50.60.50.30-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.400.30.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.