Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essex, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:49PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 4:23 PM EST (21:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:14PMMoonset 7:44AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 339 Pm Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Rest of this afternoon..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sleet, rain and snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain and sleet.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of rain.
Sat..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming w. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
ANZ500 339 Pm Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong low pressure system will impact the region through tonight. Low pressure will then push off to the north and east on Thursday as a frontal boundary passes through the waters. High pressure will build to the north on Friday and another cold front will cross the waters on Sunday. Small craft conditions will be possible on Thursday, and likely on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essex, MD
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location: 39.29, -76.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 202014
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
314 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
Primary low pressure over the great lakes will track into
southern canada tonight while secondary low pressure will move
up the atlantic coast. High pressure returns briefly on
Thursday. A cold front will cross the region Thursday evening
and stall to the south on Friday. Another large and complex low
pressure system will move northeast across the region Saturday
into Sunday.

Near term through Thursday
Warm air has spead cross the region today aloft, with most
precipitation now mainly in the form of sleet, freezing rain and
plain rain where temps have risen above freezing. There are
still significant pockets of sub-freezing air across the i-95
corridor, but these are likely to dwindle over the next several
hours, so freezing rain is likely to change to rain as the
evening progresses. Temps will struggle further northwest in the
i-81 corridor, so warnings remain in effect until after midnight
in these areas.

Precip should clear the region late tonight, but low clouds may
linger into the morning hours. After westerly winds kick in,
temps should surge as clouds break, with many areas likely to
touch 50. Will have to watch out for potential for the low
clouds to linger longer than expected, but otherwise, Thursday
should be much nicer than today.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night
Weak front crosses the region late Thursday afternoon evening,
perhaps with some showers or a little rain, especially in
central va. Cooler air will move in for Friday behind this
front, with temps closer to seasonable norms (40s). With the
front stalling just to the south, some rain may linger in
central va. Complex low pressure will then start to organize to
the southwest, sending warm advection our way Friday night. Will
need to watch temps closely Friday night as the rain oversprads
the region again, as northern areas could slip below freezing
overnight and result in some freezing rain. Temps will
generally be in the 30s Friday night.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
A warm front will approach the region from the south on
Saturday. Overrunning precipitation ahead of the warm front is
forecast to start affecting our region as early as Friday
evening.Winds will be mainly out of the south behind the warm
front leading to advection of warm and moist air into our
region. As the warm front shifts northward and moves our our
region, the models are trying to transfer energy from the
surface low too form a secondary low along the warm front that
shifts eastward to the eastern seaboard near the mid-atlantic
coast. This would lead to increased precipitation focused over
our region. Models indicate the potential for over a inch of
liquid during the warm front transition northward. The warm
front is forecast to shift to our north as the cold front
approaches from the west early on Sunday. The cold front is
expected to move through our region Saturday afternoon. Winds
will become westerly behind the frontal passage. Temperatures
have the potential to reach into the 60s on Sunday ahead of the
frontal passage.

High pressure will build into our region behind the cold
frontal passage through midway next week. Winds will start out
of the west but as the high moves over our region, winds will
become more northerly. Temperatures will be mild to slightly
below average through early next week.

Aviation 20z Wednesday through Monday
MVFR ifr CIGS and vis with lingering rain, with freezing rain
and sleet at the colder terminals. Precip ends after midnight
and CIGS vis improve late tonight early Thursday.VFR should
predominate after that until later Friday night, when the next
system brings rain back to the region.

Rain will move into our region with winds becoming southerly on
Saturday. Subvfr conditions are likely.

On Sunday, rain will move through the area by the afternoon.

Winds will be strong aloft with the potential for gusts over 30
knots. Subvfr conditions are possible.

Marine
Marginal SCA will ebb tonight as low pressure developing along
the coast pulls away to the northeast. As another weak front
crosses the region later Thursday into Thursday evening, SCA may
be needed especially over northern waters, less likely to the
south. Light winds are likely Friday and Friday night as high
pressure settles to the north, followed by the approach of the
next system from the southwest.

On Saturday, rain will move through the waters. Winds aloft
will hover near the 10 to 15 knot range. Small craft likely wont
be needed at this time.

Sunday, showers will move through the water Sunday afternoon.

Winds aloft will be strong above 35 knots with the potential to
reach up to 40 knots. This indicates that at least a small craft
advisory will be needed with the potential for a gale warning
on Sunday.

Hydrology
Ultimately, our upcoming flood potential will be determined
after we see exactly how much snow fell on Wednesday and how
much liquid is in that snow. A good melt is ahead for Thursday
and Friday with temperatures above freezing and a decent amount
of sunshine. That will elevate streams and keep them elevated,
ahead of the next system which affects us over the weekend. That
event looks like all rain. Current indications are for between
0.5 inch (low-end) and 2.0 inches (high-end) of rain over the
weekend, on top of remaining snowmelt. If there's still snow on
the ground and if the higher rainfall amounts are realized, this
combination would produce flooding both on small and larger
streams starting late Saturday through possibly early next week.

We will continue to monitor the potential in the coming days.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for dcz001.

Md... Winter storm warning until 10 pm est this evening for mdz005-
006-503>507.

Winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for mdz011-
013-014-508.

Winter storm warning until 1 am est Thursday for mdz003-004-
501-502.

Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
mdz016>018.

Va... Winter storm warning until 10 pm est this evening for vaz025-
026-503-504-506>508.

Winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for vaz054.

Winter storm warning until 1 am est Thursday for vaz027>031-
040-501-505.

Winter weather advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
vaz036>039-050>053-502.

Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
vaz055>057.

Wv... Winter storm warning until 10 pm est this evening for wvz505-
506.

Winter storm warning until 1 am est Thursday for wvz050>053-
055-501>504.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for anz532-
533-540-541.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for anz534-
537-543.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Rcm
short term... Rcm
long term... Jmg
aviation... Rcm jmg
marine... Rcm jmg
hydrology... Je


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSNM2 6 mi42 min NE 6 G 7 30°F 1026.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 6 mi36 min E 5.1 G 6 30°F 1027.4 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 7 mi42 min E 6 G 7 30°F 38°F1027.1 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 13 mi36 min NNE 1.9 G 4.1 31°F 39°F1027.5 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 21 mi42 min 33°F 1026.7 hPa
CPVM2 21 mi36 min 33°F 33°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 27 mi24 min E 8 G 9.9 32°F 37°F1027.2 hPa (-4.0)32°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi114 min E 1 33°F 1029 hPa31°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 38 mi36 min E 6 G 8 31°F 38°F1028.1 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 41 mi42 min Calm G 1.9 32°F 41°F1027.5 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD4 mi39 minN 02.00 miFog/Mist32°F32°F100%1028.1 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD8 mi30 minno data mi32°F28°F85%1027.3 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD13 mi30 minNNE 52.50 miLight Freezing Rain Fog/Mist31°F28°F92%1027.1 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD21 mi30 minE 52.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist36°F32°F86%1026.9 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD21 mi42 minE 43.00 miOvercast32°F30°F93%1027.8 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD23 mi64 minN 07.00 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist32°F32°F100%1027.8 hPa

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E4SE5E6SE9E5NE7E6NE5NE4NE4Calm
1 day agoNW21
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W12W11W5NW7NW4NW7NW6NW4NW5NW10
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2 days agoE3SE3SE7SE6SE4CalmSE6SE5SE3SE5SE9CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW10W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Bowley Bar, Middle River, Maryland
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Bowley Bar
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:13 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:34 AM EST     1.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:43 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:55 PM EST     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:47 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:23 PM EST     1.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30-0.1-0.10.20.50.811.10.90.50.2-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.10.40.81.21.41.41.20.9

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:46 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:35 AM EST     0.81 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:43 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:28 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:29 AM EST     -0.87 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:23 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:43 PM EST     1.11 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:48 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:56 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.1-0.8-0.40.10.50.80.80.60.2-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.20.30.711.10.90.5-0-0.5-0.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.