Sunday, June25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Butler, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:37PM Sunday June 25, 2017 11:45 PM EDT (03:45 UTC) Moonrise 6:24AMMoonset 9:04PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1031 Pm Edt Sun Jun 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 5 am edt Monday...
Rest of tonight..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Wed night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1031 Pm Edt Sun Jun 25 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build west of the area through Tuesday as a series of weak cold fronts cross the waters. The high pressure center will then move over the area Wednesday before shifting into the atlantic Thursday. Small craft advisory conditions are possible over portions of the waters Tuesday and again Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Butler, MD
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location: 39.3, -76.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 252226
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
626 pm edt Sun jun 25 2017

Synopsis
A large area of high pressure will slowly move through the eastern
u.S. Early this week before moving offshore Wednesday and Thursday.

A series of surface lows will move from the northern and central
plains to the great lakes and northeast from mid to late week,
ushering in warmer and more humid air late this week and the
upcoming weekend.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
The mid and upper level shortwave trough now over the eastern
great lakes region will lift northeast through the evening and
early overnight hours. A few additional showers are possible
across portions of the CWA through the early evening hours.

However, after 00z, the diurnally driven activity will
dissipate. The latest run of the hrrr indicates that even the
more widespread shower activity associated with the main trough
axis now in western pennsylvania will also dissipate by
midnight.

Temperature wise, as the drier air continues to filter into our
area, expect efficient radiational cooling to result in lows
slightly below normal, ranging from the lower 50s to mid 60s.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
Main story through this period is a cold front at the surface which
will approach our region late in the day. There may be enough lift
with this to once again result in isolated convective initiation
across the higher terrain of eastern pa and NW nj.

In the mid and upper levels, an approaching trough will result in
decreasing 1000 to 500 mb thicknesses which should also translate to
slightly lower temperatures than what we have seen lately. Highs are
expected to range from the upper 60s in the higher terrain of the
poconos to the lower 80s across central delmarva.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
Main forecast challenges for the long term include a deep trough
passage around midweek and increasing warmth and precipitation
chances late week into this weekend.

A potent shortwave trough is poised to move through the larger-
scale trough in eastern north america early this week, with
passage through the northeastern u.S. In the Tuesday-Wednesday
time frame. Large-scale ascent in advance of the attendant
vorticity maximum will allow for increased cloud cover on
Tuesday and fairly cool temperatures for this time of year.

Forecast highs are around 5-10 degrees below seasonal averages.

Forecast confidence is a little below average on Tuesday,
however, given some lingering disagreement among the operational
models regarding strength orientation of the trough axis,
extent of large-scale ascent in advance of the trough in the
mid-atlantic, and associated frontal timing. The 12z GFS cmc are
fairly dry across the area, but the 12z ECMWF does generate
some precipitation along the front and offshore. Though there is
much improved agreement on the specifics of a developing low
off the coast with the 12z simulations, the QPF discrepancies do
not bode much confidence in the sensible weather details,
particularly in southern eastern portions of the area -- which
will be in closer proximity to the developing low and the last
to be passed by the remnant surface boundary moving through the
region. Decided not to stray much from forecast continuity for
this period.

Upstream ridging will move into the east on Wednesday, with a
broad surface high migrating to the coast by 00z Thursday. This
should allow for a dry day with continued pleasant (slightly
below average) temperatures.

As the surface ridge moves offshore by Thursday, return flow
commences. Temperatures are likely to rapidly warm in this
regime, with substantial warm moist advection occurring in
advance of another potent vorticity maximum moving into the
great lakes and adjacent southern southeast canada by this time.

Midlevel ridging in advance of the vort MAX should permit the
warm sector to surge well north of the area, which will prevent
associated surface fronts from reaching the area likely through
the end of the long term period.

This means the main questions regarding the Friday-Sunday
forecast revolve around heat humidity and chances for
precipitation, as the rapid warmth of Thursday will likely be
followed by more gradual increases in temps dew points
thereafter. Additionally, with the mid-atlantic becoming more
and more on the fringes of midlevel ridging, large-scale ascent
(pronounced in advance of west-to-east moving vorticity maxima)
will at least glance the area, especially the northern western
cwa. As such, the models (to varying degrees) suggest increasing
chances for precipitation as a surface boundary sags southward
from canada through this period.

There is pretty decent agreement on timing location of the first
vorticity maximum on Thursday (generally in new york new
england), so kept pops pretty low in the CWA during this time
frame (only mentionable in the southern poconos and vicinity).

However, Friday through Sunday feature increasing chances for
convection as faster southwest flow slowly edges toward the area,
though pinpointing exact locations and timing (the latter of
which will be closely tied to upstream vorticity maxima this
weekend) is a dubious exercise at this time range given the
somewhat unpredictable pattern (and associated poor phasing
agreement among the ECMWF gfs cmc). Generally broad-brushed
slight chance to chance pops through the CWA this weekend as a
result, with a general blend of the above-mentioned models and
heavy weighting to continuity wpc guidance.

Regarding heat humidity, kept the forecast fairly tame during
this period (and close to statistical guidance) given potential
complications from proximity convection. However, if the ridge
remains more prevalent across the area, forecast could be too
cool this period. Regardless, a sultry weekend is anticipated.

Aviation 22z Sunday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

MostlyVFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There is
a slight chance showers and thunderstorms after 18z Monday across
the higher terrain (including krdg and kabe). If any showers move
over the TAF sites, MVFR or lower conditions are possible, but it is
too uncertain to include in any of the tafs at this time.

Winds will stay mostly light out of the west or southwest through
the TAF period. The one exception is kacy, where south southeasterly
winds are expected to persist through at least 00z in the wake of a
sea breeze. There is a chance a sea breeze could redevelop after
18z Monday and once again shift the winds at kacy.

Outlook...

Monday night and Tuesday: predominantlyVFR, though
isolated scattered showers storms are possible. Winds generally
west or southwest 5 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts during the
day. Confidence average.

Tuesday night through Wednesday:VFR. Winds generally northwest
5 to 15 kts. Confidence above average.

Wednesday night and Thursday night:VFR. Winds generally
southwest under 10 kts at night and 10 to 20 kts during the day.

Confidence above average.

Thursday night and Friday: generallyVFR, though there is an
increasing chance for showers storms, especially north west of
kphl during this period. Winds generally southwest 5 to 15 kts
with gusts to 20 kts during the day. Confidence below average.

Marine
Winds and seas are expected to stay below small craft advisory
criteria tonight and tomorrow. Westerly wind gusts up to 20 kt are
possible on the atlantic coastal waters overnight, but should stay
below 25 kt.

Outlook...

Monday night through Wednesday night: sub-advisory conditions
expected. A slight chance of showers storms on Tuesday and
Tuesday night.

Thursday through Friday: advisory winds seas possible as
stronger southwesterly winds become established. A slight chance
of storms on Friday.

Rip currents
The outlook for tomorrow is that the low risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents will continue.

Tides coastal flooding
Very high astronomical tides are expected to continue today and
tomorrow. There is a chance that minor tidal flooding could occur
especially along the northern nj shore with the high tide cycle this
evening. However, models over the last few days have had a high
bias, and the winds have been light though the day today. Therefore,
do not expect widespread tidal flooding today. Tomorrow water levels
should be slightly lower as well.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Cms
near term... Johnson miketta
short term... Johnson
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms johnson
marine... Cms johnson miketta
tides coastal flooding... Johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 7 mi46 min WNW 12 G 15 78°F 82°F1016.8 hPa (+1.0)
44043 - Patapsco, MD 16 mi26 min NW 14 G 16 78°F 1017 hPa
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 17 mi26 min WNW 9.7 G 12 77°F 1016 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 20 mi46 min W 8 G 9.9 76°F 1016.4 hPa (+1.0)
FSNM2 20 mi46 min WNW 12 G 14 76°F 1016.6 hPa (+1.0)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 22 mi46 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 76°F 80°F1016.3 hPa (+0.9)
CPVM2 24 mi46 min 76°F 51°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 25 mi46 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 74°F 83°F1016.5 hPa (+1.1)
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 27 mi46 min 75°F 1016.3 hPa (+1.1)
44063 - Annapolis 28 mi26 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 76°F 1016.9 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi46 min NW 8.9 G 11 77°F 79°F
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 36 mi46 min 75°F 80°F1015.6 hPa (+1.0)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 36 mi46 min NW 8 G 12 73°F 78°F1015.9 hPa (+1.0)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 41 mi91 min W 1 73°F 1016 hPa53°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 42 mi46 min WNW 11 G 13 77°F 78°F1015.5 hPa (+0.9)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 46 mi136 min Calm 73°F 1016 hPa60°F

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD12 mi1.8 hrsWNW 410.00 miFair72°F50°F47%1016.9 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD14 mi52 minW 610.00 miFair70°F51°F53%1017.3 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD23 mi52 minno data mi77°F48°F36%1016.9 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD24 mi56 minNW 610.00 miOvercast77°F53°F44%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW8SW8SW9W11W10W10W11----W4NW3
1 day agoSW10
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2 days agoSW3SW5SW5CalmSW6SW4SW5SW7SW11SW9SW10SW9SW9S13S9SW12SW14
G23
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SW12SW9SW8SW9SW10

Tide / Current Tables for Worton Creek entrance, Maryland
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Worton Creek entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:45 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:24 AM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:47 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:48 PM EDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.50.30.20.40.81.31.82.32.52.52.31.91.51.10.70.40.40.50.91.21.51.61.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:05 AM EDT     -0.74 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:45 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:27 AM EDT     1.33 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:54 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:13 PM EDT     -1.24 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:52 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:24 PM EDT     0.66 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:07 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.7-0.6-0.30.10.61.11.31.310.5-0.1-0.6-1-1.2-1.2-0.9-0.40.10.40.60.60.40-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.