Wednesday, May23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Butler, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:21PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 6:42 AM EDT (10:42 UTC) Moonrise 1:20PMMoonset 1:43AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 508 Am Edt Wed May 23 2018
Today..SW winds 5 kt...becoming nw late this morning and afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog this morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Sun..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day. A chance of tstms. Showers likely through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 508 Am Edt Wed May 23 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the waters today. High pressure will follow Thursday through Friday before moving offshore during the weekend. A low pressure system may approach the area by early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Butler, MD
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location: 39.3, -76.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 230745
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
345 am edt Wed may 23 2018

Synopsis
Weak low pressure will track north of the region into this
morning dragging a cold front south across the area. High
pressure builds in tonight and Thursday before shifting offshore
Friday. A cold front is forecast to move southward across our
area later Saturday night through Sunday, then stall in our
vicinity early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Low pressure and an associated cold front are affecting the area
early this morning. Frequent showers across the north and areas of
fog elsewhere will be found through the early morning. After
sunrise, an improvement in conditions from NW to SE is expected as
drier and cooler air arrives across the area. Skies will become
partly sunny by mid late morning and then mostly sunny this
afternoon. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s low 80s in
most areas. Winds will become northwest and increase to 10 to 15 mph
by afternoon.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
High pressure will remain west of the area tonight. We will be in a
much drier and somewhat cooler air mass. Under mostly clear skies,
temperatures should drop into the low mid 50s across the northern
areas and upper 50s low 60s across the urban areas and delmarva.

Winds will be light from the nw.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Thursday through Friday night...

high pressure will maintain fair and dry weather across the area
through this period with lots of sunshine. As this high moves over
the area Thursday, it will bring sunny skies with light winds and
low humidity. Highs will generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s
except several degrees cooler over the southern poconos as well as
along the coast where a sea breeze will likely kick in by afternoon.

Thursday night into Friday, the high will move offshore setting up a
return flow from the SW bringing in warmer temperatures and
increasing dew points as well... Though still not too humid.

Highs by Friday afternoon will generally reach the low to mid
80s except again, cooler near the coast and across the southern
poconos. Lows Thursday night will generally be in the 50s to low
60s but as dew points continue to creep up Friday night it will
keep temperatures up as well with lows in the 60s.

Saturday through Tuesday...

sw flow ahead of the next wave continues to bring in warmer and
more humid air Saturday with some scattered to isolated showers
and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, mainly north and
west of the i-95 corridor. Highs should reach the mid to upper
80s away from the coast with 90 degrees not out of the question.

Dew points in the mid to upper 60s will also make it feel quite
muggy. Right along the coast as well as the southern poconos it
will still be cooler... Generally in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Saturday night and beyond, the forecast gets more complex. The
gfs and the gem both drag a backdoor cold front southward across
the area Sunday as high pressure moves into eastern canada
while the ECMWF keeps this front to the north. Based on the
models recent handling of these types of patterns, tend to favor
the colder solution that brings the front south. At the same
time, tropical moisture associated with a large low over the
gulf of mexico will be pulled north into the area around high
pressure in the western atlantic. This looks to set up a more
unsettled pattern Sunday into memorial day with increasing
chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which
could be heavy. Temperatures should be cooler with highs Sunday
mainly in the 70s to low 80s and highs Monday possibly only in
the 60s north and the 70s south. Again though, there is
increasing uncertainty in the forecast through this time
period... Especially regarding the placement of the front which
will have an impact on both temperatures and precipitation. By
next Tuesday, the front may start to lift back to the north as
the next wave approaches from ontario and quebec but tropical
moisture looks to remain in the vicinity so we keep chances for
showers and storms in the forecast.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Poor conditions with mostly ifr conditions early then
improvement from NW to SE after sunrise with a cold front crossing
the area. The timing of the improvement is somewhat in question, but
probably with a hour or so in the 06z tafs. Drier air arrives today
on a NW wind so onceVFR return, it should stay that way. Winds will
be mostly 320-340 at 10-15 knots late this morning and into the
afternoon.

Tonight... MostlyVFR expected with clear skies. Winds will be light
nw or calm. The air mass will probably be too dry to support much in
way of fog tonight, perhaps some patchy ground fog in rural areas.

It will probably mot be included in the 12z tafs with overall low
confid in its occurrence.

Outlook...

Thursday and Friday...VFR. Northerly winds around 10 knots early
Thursday backing to light SW by late Thursday with SW winds
increasing to near 10 knots Friday.

Saturday and Sunday... MainlyVFR Saturday and Saturday night. Sub-
vfr conditions may occur at times with developing showers and
thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions are expected today and tonight with high pressure
building in. Except for some scattered showers through the early
morning, fair weather is expected through the period. Seas on the
ocean will be mostly 2 to 3 ft.

Outlook...

Thursday... The conditions are anticipated to be below small
craft advisory criteria.

Friday and Saturday... Southwesterly flow increases allowing the seas
to build some. It is possible that wind gusts approach small craft
advisory criteria at times Friday night and Saturday
Sunday... The conditions should be below small craft advisory
criteria as a front settles southward.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Fitzsimmons
near term... O'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Fitzsimmons
aviation... Fitzsimmons o'hara
marine... Fitzsimmons o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 7 mi42 min SSW 4.1 G 6 68°F 68°F1013.3 hPa (+0.3)
FSNM2 20 mi42 min W 8.9 G 9.9 67°F 1013 hPa (+0.3)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 20 mi42 min W 7 G 8 68°F 1013.2 hPa (+0.4)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 22 mi42 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 68°F 72°F1012.9 hPa (+0.5)
CPVM2 24 mi42 min 68°F 68°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 25 mi42 min N 2.9 G 2.9 66°F 69°F1013.5 hPa (+0.5)
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 27 mi42 min 67°F 1012.8 hPa (+0.5)
44063 - Annapolis 27 mi32 min W 3.9 G 3.9 68°F 1013.7 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi42 min S 6 G 7 68°F 68°F1013.9 hPa (-0.0)68°F
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 36 mi42 min 66°F 68°F1013 hPa (+0.6)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 36 mi42 min ENE 1 G 1.9 66°F 64°F1013.4 hPa (+0.6)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 41 mi132 min SSW 5.1 66°F 1013 hPa66°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 46 mi132 min S 2.9 61°F 1013 hPa61°F

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD12 mi1.7 hrsN 00.63 miFog/Mist63°F62°F100%1013.2 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD14 mi57 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F68°F100%1013.2 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD23 mi48 minno data mi69°F66°F93%1013.2 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD24 mi67 minSSW 47.00 miFair68°F66°F94%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE3SE4--------E6E7NE4E4NE3NE3E4E4NE4CalmCalmCalmSW5CalmW3CalmCalm
1 day agoNE5NE6NE7E5E6E3CalmNE7E7E6E7SE6SE4CalmSE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago----------------------------------------------N5

Tide / Current Tables for Worton Creek entrance, Maryland
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Worton Creek entrance
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Wed -- 02:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:25 AM EDT     1.78 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:01 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:41 PM EDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:36 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.31.61.81.81.61.31.10.80.60.50.60.91.21.61.81.81.71.41.20.90.60.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:48 AM EDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:04 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:56 AM EDT     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:50 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:56 PM EDT     0.70 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:52 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:13 PM EDT     -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:27 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.80.70.40-0.3-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.30.10.40.60.70.60.3-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.20.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.