Saturday, May25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Butler, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:22PM Saturday May 25, 2019 7:16 AM EDT (11:16 UTC) Moonrise 12:20AMMoonset 10:40AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 435 Am Edt Sat May 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from noon edt today through this afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt until early morning. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Patchy fog.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 435 Am Edt Sat May 25 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will shift offshore of the eastern united states through today. A weak cold front will approach the waters Sunday, lingering nearby through Monday. High pressure off the southeastern united states coast will then be in control in the middle of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Sunday night into Monday and again on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Butler, MD
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location: 39.3, -76.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 250732
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
332 am edt Sat may 25 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will shift offshore today with a warm front lifting
north across the area tonight. A weak cold front will then move
through the area late Sunday, with weak high pressure then returning
to start the week. Multiple areas of low pressure will track north
of the area across the great lakes through the middle of the week
with generally warm and unsettled weather prevailing.

Near term today
High pressure will be across the area today before heading out
to sea. Clouds will overspread the area by afternoon as a warm
front approaches from the west. Tstms across mi early this
morning will send some debris cloudiness in from the NW by dawn
and this will spread se. A dry day is expected, by-in-large, but
a few sct showers are possible across the far NW during the
late afternoon early evening.

High temperatures will probably be a bit cooler than Friday, owing
to the extra cloudiness expected. The 00z NAM was quite cool with
its maxt for today, be didn't go quite that low, but instead blended
it in with the previous fcst. Highs will be mostly in the low mid
70s with some upper 60s far nw. Humidity levels will still be
comfortable for the most part, but will begin to creep up across the
sw areas later today.

Short term tonight
The warm front will cross the area tonight and it will
bring some sct showers and perhaps a TSTM to most areas. We have keep
pops in the NW areas in the chc range, but a bit lower than the
previous fcst. Other area will continue with slgt chc or low chc
pops for the overnight. Lows will be mild across DELMARVA and SRN nj
with readings only dropping into the 60s. Further N ne, lows will be
in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Long term Sunday through Friday
Overview: most of the extended will be characterized by a
similar pattern to the past week with troughing over the
western us and ridging over the southeast. The surface low
track generally will remain north of the area over the great
lakes and southern canada. Similar to this week, upstream
convective systems will be significant players in sensible
weather locally. However, global guidance typically does not
handle these systems and their downstream impacts well
introducing an extra measure of uncertainty into the forecast.

Generally we will remain warm in this pattern with a chance of
storms everyday except Monday.

The pattern potentially shifts towards the end of the week as a
more significant shortwave lifts out of the western us and is
absorbed into the longwave trough setting up over hudson bay.

This amplifying northern trough may flatten the ridge enough
locally to allow for more substantial (at least from a dynamic
standpoint) systems to move through in the following week
(although uncertainty is naturally high given the time frame).

Dailies:
Sunday... A very warm day and humid day is likely as we will be
in the warm sector on Sunday. High temperatures will likely
approach 90 in the southern half of the area with dewpoints
rising to the mid to upper 60s. These factors will create an
unstable airmass with MLCAPE values over 1000 j kg (possibly
approaching 2000 j kg). Our storm chances will largely depend
upon the track evolution of an upstream MCS and convectively
enhanced shortwave, however a lack of directional shear (mostly
zonal flow at all levels) will likely limit severe chances
despite the fairly substantial instability. That being said
can't rule out some stronger storms particularly in western
portions of the area
Monday... Memorial day looks fairly quiet as we dry out behind
Sunday pm's cold front (maybe a slight chance of lingering
storms in delmarva). Highs generally in the low 80s with a good
amount of sun.

Tuesday... Moisture instability return as another weak surface
low tracks north of us and the warm front crosses the area.

Convection will be possible although once again difficult to
pinpoint due to upstream effects. Maxes similar to Monday but
more uncertain due to cloud cover and onshore flow potential.

Wednesday... Unfortunately guidance starts to diverge here, with
the GFS cmc indicating a very warm day (highs in the 90s over
the southern half of the area) although mostly dry. The 00z ec
on the other hand tracks Tuesday's low much closer to the area
and pushes a cold front through by early Wednesday, and then
reignites convection later in the day. Leaned more towards the
gfs cmc solutions this package as they seems more logical given
the synoptic pattern.

Thursday Friday... A stronger wave frontal system may approach
the area in this time frame, but details are lacking. Thursday
still looks quite warm (possibly warmer than Wed if the ec
solution verifies).

Aviation 07z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... High pressure across the area this morning moves
offshore late. A warm front approaches from the w. Clouds will
increase over the area today, but conditions will remainVFR.

Mostly hi mid clouds early then some low clouds W NW late. Winds
will be mostly light this morning then veer to E SE at 5 to 10
knots. Winds may further go mostly S by dusk.

Tonight... The warm front crosses the region tonight. Guidance
varies greatly with regards to CIGS with the NAM being pessimistic
and the mav not so bad. We have opted to go the mav route presently,
but if showers become more of an issue overnight, I could see more
lower CIGS like the NAM has. The 12z tafs may try to fine tune the
details better. Winds S early then SW behind the front. Sct showers
psbl.

Outlook...

Sunday... MostlyVFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible Sunday pm, which may briefly lower conditions at select
terminals. Winds veering from westerly to northerly by Sunday
night Monday morning
Monday... VFR conditions expected, winds light and variable.

Tuesday Wednesday... VFR conditions prevailing, however
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible both days.

Marine
Today... Fair weather expected with sub-sca conditions. Winds will
become SE this afternoon and wind speeds will increase with some
gusts around 20 knots across delaware bay.

Tonight... A sct TSTM is possible, but mostly fair weather overnight.

Winds will become S and increase to near SCA conditions, we will
hold the gusts below SCA criteria for now, with the warmer air
across the colder waters. A few gusts to 25 knots are still
possible however.

Outlook...

sub-sca conditions expected through at least Wednesday.

There will be some chance of thunderstorms every day except
Monday however.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Cms
near term... O'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Carr
aviation... Carr o'hara
marine... Carr o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 7 mi47 min E 1.9 G 6 64°F 70°F1022.7 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 20 mi47 min E 9.9 G 9.9 65°F 1022.4 hPa
FSNM2 20 mi47 min E 11 G 12 65°F 1022.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 22 mi47 min SE 6 G 8.9 66°F 69°F1022 hPa
CPVM2 24 mi47 min 66°F 57°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 25 mi47 min ESE 1.9 G 6 62°F 70°F1022.6 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 27 mi29 min SSE 9.7 G 14 65°F 68°F1022.7 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 27 mi47 min 66°F 1021.7 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi17 min ESE 8.9 G 11 64°F 67°F1023.6 hPa (+2.4)55°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 36 mi47 min SE 7 G 11 61°F 64°F1022.4 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 36 mi47 min 1021.9 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 42 mi47 min SE 16 G 18 61°F 69°F1022.5 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD14 mi27 minE 710.00 miClear64°F53°F68%1023.4 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD23 mi23 minno data mi66°F52°F61%1022.9 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD24 mi37 minSE 810.00 miOvercast64°F55°F73%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------NW4W6W8W8W10NW13W10NW15W14W14W14N14NW5W8SW5
1 day ago------------------CalmCalmCalmS13S15SW8S10S8S7S9S6SW8SW11SW8SW6
2 days ago------------------CalmCalmCalmNE5CalmE75E3SE3S3SW5SW8SW6SW5SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Worton Creek entrance, Maryland
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Worton Creek entrance
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Sat -- 01:19 AM EDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:04 AM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:29 PM EDT     1.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:42 PM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.51.41.31.10.90.70.70.70.91.11.41.71.81.81.71.51.210.80.70.60.71

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Sat -- 01:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:18 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:50 AM EDT     -0.40 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:18 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:49 AM EDT     0.72 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:00 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:31 PM EDT     -0.87 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:08 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.30.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.10.20.50.70.70.60.40-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.9-0.7-0.4-00.30.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.