Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Butler, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:50PM Friday February 22, 2019 11:32 AM EST (16:32 UTC) Moonrise 9:37PMMoonset 8:53AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 937 Am Est Fri Feb 22 2019
Rest of today..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sat..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain likely.
Sat night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Becoming sw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 ft after midnight.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 937 Am Est Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A front will stall across the carolinas through tonight as high pressure builds to the north toward new england. Low pressure developing over the middle mississippi river valley will strengthen as it moves northeastward across the great lakes into canada this weekend. High pressure will build from the northern great plains toward the great lakes and eventually into the northeast through the first half of next week. Gale conditions are likely over the waters Sunday into Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Butler, MD
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location: 39.3, -76.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 221418
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
918 am est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build in from the northwest and west to close out
the work week, before moving offshore on Saturday. Strong low
pressure lifts northeast across the great lakes over the weekend and
its associated fronts will affect our area. More high pressure will
build in for the beginning of next week. The next low pressure
system may approach from the west and affect the area by next
Wednesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
No major changes to the forecast with the mid morning update.

Expecting a blissfully quiet day (at least weather-wise) as
surface high pressure migrates eastward toward the area with
near-zonal flow prevailing aloft on the northern edge of the
subtropical atlantic ridge. Little cloud cover is expected for
most of the area outside of a fairly abundant cirrus deck and
maybe some scattered cold-advection cumulus. High temperatures
will remain near normal with highs generally in the mid to upper
40s (30s in the poconos).

The rain showers have moved south of the region. Therefore, have
lowered pops across DELMARVA through the remainder of the day.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Friday night will be quiet weather-wise with the surface high
centered just to our north. Light winds with only cirrus will allow
for lows to get below freezing in most locations outside of far
southern nj southern DELMARVA where temperatures may be a bit warmer
due to thicker mid-lvl cloud cover (although this cloud cover could
remain just south of the area).

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
Saturday through Monday...

the main story for this period continues to be strong area of
low pressure that will affect the area late Saturday through
Sunday.

To start the period early Saturday, aformentioned low will be
developing near the texas panhandle while strong high pressure
remains centered over the northeast conus. This high will move
offshore through the day while the low moves northeast toward
missouri. Expect clouds to increase with rain beginning to move
in from SW to ne... Most likely beginning in the mid to late
afternoon and reaching the philadelphia area by evening. The
airmass ahead of this system won't be very cold with highs
Saturday mostly in the 40s so expect precip to be all rain just
about everywhere. However the one area of concern will be across
the far north from the southern poconos into sussex co. Nj. As
precip moves into this area early Saturday evening temperatures
may fall to near freezing for a time so there could be a period
of freezing rain in spots... Especially the higher elevations.

However as the deepening low takes a track well to our north and
west into the upper great lakes it will push a warm front
through changing precip to all rain by the overnight so don't
expect this to be a major or widespread icing event. Otherwise,
the rain may fall moderate to even heavy at times as the system
will be drawing on lots of moisture from the south. In fact
pwats look to reach upwards of 1.5 inches by later Saturday
night. A couple limiting factors though for excessive rainfall
will be that the main upper level forcing will be well to our
north west with this system and the elevated instability looks
to stay just to our south. That said, hydro will have to be
monitored as there will be rises on rivers and streams with a
few of the more sensitive points along the rancocas creek and in
the raritan and passaic basins potentially getting into action
stage or minor flood stage by late in the weekend into early
next week.

The heaviest steadiest rain should be tapering off by around
midday Sunday as the deep low moves into northern ontario and
the system's triple point moves through. Total rain amounts by
this time look to generally be .75 up to 1.5 inches with the
delmarva into southern nj most favored to get the highest
amounts. Beyond this time concern will be strong winds Sunday
afternoon and beyond as a deep mixed layer develops with with
winds in the boundary layer progged to reach 40-50 knots. We
increased the wind gusts with this update as I expect by late
afternoon gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be quite possible.

Temperatures will be quite mild though with highs generally in
the 50s to low 60s.

The winds may abate somewhat for a time Sunday night however by
late night expect another cold front to move through with the
pressure gradient tightening up even more as the low moves into
the canadian maritimes while the next high moves south into the
central conus. It is at this time I expect the best potential
for very strong, potentially damaging W NW winds to occur with
gusts possibly in the 50 to 60 mph range. This would be
beginning near dawn Monday lasting at least through midday. Will
continue to highlight this potential in the hwo. Temperatures
return to near average for Monday with dry conditions and highs
ranging from the 30s across the southern poconos to the 40s
elsewhere.

Monday night through Thursday...

winds abate Monday night with broad high pressure moving in for
Tuesday bringing fair, seasonable weather. Forecast uncertainty
increases beyond this time as the GFS and the gem bring the
next system (a weaker one) in by next Wednesday while the ecmwf
maintains high pressure over the area. For this reason we just
keep low pops in the forecast for the Wednesday Thursday time
frame of next week.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR conditions expected at all terminals with primarily
only cirrus. Winds northerly northwesterly under 10 knots. High
confidence
tonight...VFR, with light northerly or light and variable winds.

High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR through most of the day. Restrictions possible
late day as rain begins to move in from the sw. Winds SE around
5 knots. Moderate confidence.

Saturday night... Cig vsby restrictions expected in rain and fog.

Winds E SE 3-8 knots. High confidence.

Sunday... Am restrictions in rain, low clouds with pm
improvement. W SW winds increasing to 15 to 25 knots with gusts
of 30 to 35 knots by late day continuing into the evening.

Moderate confidence.

Monday...VFR but with strong W NW winds expected at 20-25
potentially gusting 40 to 50 knots. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday...VFR with NW winds 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Marine
A northwest wind 10 to 15 knots is forecast this morning. Wind
speeds are expected to fall to 5 to 10 knots by this afternoon.

Wave heights on our ocean waters should be 3 to 4 feet
this morning, lowering to 2-3 feet by the afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday... Sub-sca. Rain possible by late day Saturday.

Saturday night thru Sunday... Winds seas increasing with sca
conditions possible by late Saturday into early Sunday and gale
conditions possible by late day Sunday.

Sunday night thru Monday night... W NW gales expected. Storm
force winds possible Monday.

Tuesday... Winds seas diminish to below SCA levels.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Fitzsimmons
near term... Carr johnson
short term... Carr
long term... Fitzsimmons
aviation... Carr fitzsimmons
marine... Carr fitzsimmons


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 7 mi38 min N 5.1 G 5.1 41°F 40°F1030 hPa
FSNM2 20 mi38 min N 7 G 8.9 44°F 1029.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 20 mi38 min NE 7 G 8 44°F 1030 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 22 mi38 min NNE 7 G 9.9 44°F 39°F1029.7 hPa
CPVM2 24 mi38 min 41°F 35°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 25 mi38 min N 5.1 G 7 43°F 39°F1029.6 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 27 mi38 min 44°F 1029 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi32 min N 8 G 8.9 42°F 38°F1030.3 hPa (+1.3)29°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 36 mi38 min N 4.1 G 5.1 41°F 36°F1029.3 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 36 mi38 min 1028.8 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 41 mi122 min N 1.9 44°F 1029 hPa30°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 42 mi38 min NNE 6 G 7 41°F 38°F1029 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 46 mi122 min N 1 43°F 1029 hPa40°F

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD12 mi1.7 hrsNW 68.00 miOvercast41°F26°F57%1029.8 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD14 mi47 minWNW 810.00 miOvercast45°F30°F57%1030.1 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD23 mi38 minno data mi45°F25°F46%1030.1 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD24 mi52 minN 610.00 miFair43°F33°F71%1029.8 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4S5NW5--W10W10CalmCalmCalm------------------NW4NW4CalmNW4NW6N6
1 day agoN5W12N12NW10NW10N5N4--N4------------------SW5CalmCalmS4SW5SW5
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Worton Creek entrance, Maryland
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Worton Creek entrance
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Fri -- 04:09 AM EST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:52 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:43 AM EST     1.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:23 PM EST     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:49 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:18 PM EST     1.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.50.2-0.1-0.2-0.10.20.611.31.31.20.80.50.1-0.2-0.4-0.3-0.10.30.81.21.41.3

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Fri -- 12:51 AM EST     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:02 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:09 AM EST     1.00 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:53 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:18 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:19 PM EST     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:23 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:50 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:25 PM EST     0.89 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:25 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1-1.1-0.9-0.5-00.50.810.90.60.2-0.3-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.6-0.20.30.70.90.90.60.2-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.