Sunday, September23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
George, MD

Version 3.4
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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:01PM Sunday September 23, 2018 9:05 AM EDT (13:05 UTC) Moonrise 5:41PMMoonset 4:13AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 735 Am Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Monday afternoon...
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely.
Thu..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
ANZ500 735 Am Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A frontal boundary will stall south of the waters through Monday. The front will return northward as a warm front Tuesday. Another cold front will then approach the waters Wednesday, and may stall near or south of the waters Thursday. Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near George, MD
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location: 39.3, -76.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 231024
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
624 am edt Sun sep 23 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build in from the north as low pressure slides
along the stalled front south of our area. The stalled front will
lift north as a warm front late Monday into Tuesday. A cold front is
expected to pass through the region late Wednesday into Thursday.

High pressure will then build in behind this front into next
weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The front that crossed the area Friday night has moves to the
tidewater va area where it has stalled. Weak low pressure will
move along it today and cause moisture to spread northward into
our area. The rains associated with it are already moving inti
the SRN wrn areas and this should continue to move into the srn
and central parts of the CWA today. We have raised pops into the
categorical range with this package. The northern most areas
will have a cloudy day, but the pops there are only low chc or
slight chc. Temperatures will be cool today with readings
topping out mostly in the low 60s north and mid upper 60s
elsewhere. Rainfall will be 1 4 to 1 2 inch across the SRN areas
today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
The pattern will remain the same tonight, but much of the
organized rains will end by evening with lowering chc from N to
s. We will still have low chc pops across DELMARVA for tonight.

Drier air from the north will return across NRN nj and NE pa. We
will not any precip in these N NW areas. Lows tonight will drop
into the upper 40s to low 50s across the north and remain in
the mid upper 50s in most other areas.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Summary: an unsettled weather pattern through out the week, but
there are two main time periods we are focused on. First with a
warm frontal passage Monday into Tuesday, there is some risk of
heavy rain. Second, Wednesday into Thursday, a cold front will
bring the next widespread chance for rain.

Details:
Monday and Monday night... Warm front is expected to lift north
through our region through this period. As a result, expect rain
across much of the area for at least part of this period. Given
a very robust mid level inversion, expect mostly stratiform rain
through this period. Consequently, not expecting any
thunderstorms. However, there is a concern for heavy rain given
precipitable water values above 1.6 inches for much of the area.

While this is a far cry from the 2 inch+ amounts we were
discussing just a few weeks ago, it is significantly above
normal for this time of year. Additionally, an easterly low
level jet will result in persistent moisture advection through
the period.

Tuesday... Once we get in the warm sector, there should be
modest instability so we could see the precipitation transition
to more convective showery. Instability will be limited though,
so expecting mostly showers, with a few thunderstorms possible.

Precipitable water values will continue to be well above normal
through this period, so the risk for heavy rain remains the
primary concern.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... The main concern in this period is
when or even if we will see the dry slot ahead of the next round
of precipitation associated with the cold front. Thus, kept the
mention of showers and thunderstorms through this period, but it
is not expected to be a washout through the entire period.

Wednesday night through Saturday... Most of the 00z models
depict the first cold front completely clearing our area
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning before stalling
southeast of our area. This is a change from the 12z model
runs, where some depicted the front stalling over our area
before a secondary frontal passage later Friday. None the less,
even with the front stalling south of our area, we could see
additional showers Thursday into Thursday night as a low
propagates along the front. Given the lack of run to run
consistency, stayed close to the previous forecast through
Friday with low chance mention of showers, with a dry forecast
from Friday night onward.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Increasing and lowering CIGS this morning from SW to NE as a
weak low moves along a front to the south. Most locations will end
up at MVFR by mid day and have a steady light rain through much
of the day. Kabe will be further away from the main precip, so
higher CIGS (vfr) and smaller chcs for rain are expected there.

Winds will be mostly light and variable, but winds from the ne
are possible towards evening.

Tonight... Slow improvement both to CIGS and vsbys as the rains end
from SW to NE this evening. A trend back toVFR is expected for the
delaware valley sites while the sites further south kacy kmiv may
take longer to arrive back atVFR. Winds will be mostly light
from the N or nw.

Outlook...

Monday and Monday night... Some locations may startVFR, but
expect ceilings to lower to MVFR through the day. Localized ifr
conditions are possible especially Monday night. The chance for
rain increases from south to north through the day as well.

Easterly winds 10 to 15 kt with higher gusts possible. Moderate
confidence.

Tuesday... Starting MVFR or even ifr, but should see gradual
improvement through the day. Chance for showers and even a few
thunderstorms through the day. Winds shifting to southeasterly and
decreasing through the day. Low confidence.

Tuesday night... VFR conditions possible in the evening, but fog
and or stratus may develop overnight. Light and variable winds. Low
confidence.

Wednesday and Wednesday night... MostlyVFR conditions are expected.

However, lower conditions are possible with a period of showers and
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Once the cold front passes,
expect a shift to northerly winds and improving conditions. Moderate
confidence.

Thursday and Thursday night... MostlyVFR conditions, though there is
a chance for showers which could briefly lower conditions. Low
confidence.

Marine
Winds and seas are expected to increase later today and
therefore we will leave the SCA flag 'as is' for now. Rain will
overspread the waters this morning and persist into the afternoon.

Seas will be mostly 3 to 4 ft across the ocean and 1 to 2 ft across
delaware bay.

Outlook...

Monday and Monday night... SCA conditions for both gusty
easterly winds and elevated seas are expected.

Tuesday through Thursday... Winds are expected to remain below sca
criteria, so SCA conditions are unlikely on the delaware bay.

However, elevated seas on the ocean waters may continue through at
least Wednesday night. An abrupt wind shift to northerly winds is
expected Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Rip currents...

a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents
is expected today.

Tides coastal flooding
An increasing onshore flow is expected for Monday and the
astronomical tides will be high due to the full harvest moon. As a
result, there may be some minor flooding along the coasts and bays
of new jersey and delaware, as well as along the tidal delaware
river, with the high tide on Monday evening and Monday night.

The onshore flow is forecast to continue through Monday night before
veering to the south on Tuesday, from south to north. As a result,
there may be another round of minor flooding with Tuesday morning's
high tide, especially along the new jersey coast from the atlantic
city area northward. While the etss output is indicating that the
highest water levels will be on Monday evening, the estofs is
hinting at more of a problem on Tuesday morning in spots. We will
continue to monitor the trends in the forecast models.

Equipment
Kdix is currently off line. Technicians are on their way to the
radar to trouble shoot the issue. We apologize for any
inconvenience.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 6 am edt Tuesday
for anz452-453.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Monday to 6 am edt Tuesday for
anz450-451.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 6 am edt
Tuesday for anz454-455.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Monday to 2 am edt Tuesday for
anz430-431.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... O'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Johnson
aviation... Johnson o'hara
marine... Johnson o'hara
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 6 mi36 min 61°F 72°F1022.6 hPa
FSNM2 17 mi36 min 60°F 1021.8 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 17 mi36 min 61°F 1022.2 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 19 mi36 min 62°F 76°F1022 hPa
CPVM2 23 mi36 min 64°F 61°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 26 mi36 min 64°F 1021.6 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 27 mi36 min 60°F 72°F1022.9 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 30 mi66 min NE 12 G 14 63°F 73°F1022.2 hPa (-0.3)60°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 39 mi36 min 62°F 67°F1022.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 44 mi96 min N 1.9 57°F 1022 hPa57°F
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 44 mi96 min N 1.9 64°F 1022 hPa62°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 45 mi36 min 64°F 75°F1021.9 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD11 mi21 minN 07.00 miLight Rain61°F60°F100%1023 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD21 mi12 minno data mi62°F57°F86%1023.1 hPa

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW9N8N6NW10NW6N7
G15
NW9NW7N3N3CalmCalm--------------CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE9SE9SE9S7
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S11S5S5--------------CalmW3NW4NW5
2 days agoE5E5SE6SE5SE6E6E5E5E7E5E8E10SE10
G15
--------------SE10SE8SE7SE8

Tide / Current Tables for Pooles Island, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.