Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 2:11 AM   Moonset 12:44 PM

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FXUS65 KREV 022005 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 105 PM PDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS

Warmer temperatures continue today through tomorrow, with periods of showers likely along the Oregon border and breezy winds creating choppy lakes this afternoon. Active weather returns with a storm system bringing gusty winds along with valley rain and mountain snow, with conditions slowly improving Sunday. Early next week, a slow warming trend with low chances for precipitation remain in the forecast.

DISCUSSION

This afternoon's radar depicts the showers along the Oregon border as a weak trough swings across the Pacific Northwest. Plan on this trend continuing through today, with chances for additional showers dwindling through the afternoon.

* REST OF TODAY: Choppy waters will become a concern for anglers on Pyramid Lake due to gusty winds today. Sustained breezes up to 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph are possible and will kick up choppy lake waters through this evening. Shower chances mentioned above will be greatest for Surprise Valley and far northern Washoe county, around a 30-55% chance.

* ENJOY FRIDAY: Our recent above average temperatures will settle in for one more day, with light winds making for a great day to get outdoors. But do not be fooled by this, the rest of the weekend will not be as ideal for outdoor recreation. A saying that comes to mind is, 'make hay while the sun shines' for this Friday. Our only shot at any showers for Friday will be for the Sierra in Mono County, with only a slight (10-15%) chance for an afternoon shower.

* WEEKEND: Spring really can be fickle, and this weekend will be a great example of the variability we can see in this region during May. While this type of system would be less troublesome in January, the depth of the incoming trough and attendant cold air promises a noticeable change for May standards. Southwest winds will increase late Friday into the overnight, and by Saturday Sierra ridges will see gusts up to 90+ mph. Wind prone areas such as US-395 from Reno through Mono County and US-95 in Mineral County near Hawthorne could see gusts reaching 55 mph.
There is a 40-60% probability for damaging winds from south of I-80 into Douglas, Lyon, Mineral and Mono counties. Blowing dust could be lofted by high winds near dry lake beds, creating reductions in visibility. High profile vehicle travel on north- south oriented roads may be difficult, while aviation travelers may experience bumpy plane rides. The winds will be followed closely by mountain snow showers and valley rains, although the Saturday night into Sunday timeframe will see snow levels crashing to 5,000-5,500 feet. The best chances for snow accumulations will be above 7000 feet, during the overnight Saturday into Sunday hours. Higher end scenarios are indicating messy Sierra passes are possible before daybreak, with 8-10 inches as a first guess along Donner Pass. Spring sun angle will work to compete with snow accumulations first thing Sunday morning, so accumulations on roadways should be short-lived. All told, most of the region will have at least a decent chance for wetting rains, with a 50-60% chance for at least 0.5" of liquid precipitation across the Tahoe Basin. Recent ensemble forecasting for the snow amounts seems to struggle with these colder spring systems, but the overall pattern with a deep negative-tilted trough, and ample moisture shown in the IVT>250 kg/ms for the weekend leans us into thinking the amounts may increase a bit in future iterations. For now, 1-2 inches at lake level in Tahoe is not out of the question, with potential for up to 3-4 inches on elevated surfaces. HRICH

AVIATION

* VFR conditions through today, although westerly winds will increase this afternoon for western Nevada valley terminals to 25- 30 kts.

* Friday will feature pleasant flying conditions with light winds and clear skies though around 03z. There is a slight (10-15%)
chance for showers for KMMH Friday afternoon.

* SW winds will increase Friday night into Saturday morning, signaling the arrival of the next system. Mountain snow showers and valley rains are possible through Saturday, with a colder airmass allowing snow levels to drop to 5000-5500 feet. This may affect Sierra valley runways KTRK and KTVL for Sunday morning with snow accumulations possible before the sunrise. HRICH

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 8 AM PDT Sunday NVZ002.

High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening NVZ001-003.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 8 AM PDT Sunday CAZ071>073.

Sacramento, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

Sacramento #4
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Thu -- 03:14 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:42 AM PDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:21 AM PDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:50 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:15 PM PDT     2.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:59 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:10 PM PDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
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Sacramento #4, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

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