Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bowleys Quarters, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 7:19PM Thursday March 21, 2019 7:30 AM EDT (11:30 UTC) Moonrise 7:12PMMoonset 6:47AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 618 Am Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through late tonight...
.gale warning in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening...
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm... Decreasing to 1 nm or less this afternoon.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt... Increasing to 35 kt late. Waves 3 ft. Scattered showers.
Fri night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Waves 4 ft.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming n. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely .
ANZ500 618 Am Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will pass through the waters today and it will strengthen as it moves off to the northeast tonight through Friday night. High pressure will return for the weekend before low pressure and its associated cold front impact the waters early next week. A gale warning may be needed for portions of the waters late Friday night into Saturday morning. A small craft advisory will likely be needed later Saturday into Saturday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bowleys Quarters, MD
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location: 39.33, -76.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 210757
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
357 am edt Thu mar 21 2019

Synopsis
Coastal low pressure will pass through the area today. The low
will intensify as it moves off to the northeast tonight through
Friday night and high pressure will return for the weekend. Low
pressure may impact the area early next week with more
unsettled conditions possible.

Near term through tonight
Two potent shortwaves associated with the northern stream energy
are beginning to phase over the ohio and tennessee valleys
early this morning. A potent ridge upstream over the plains and
northern rockies will allow for the northern stream energy to
dig farther south, increasing the likelihood for phasing. As
these systems phase, the upper-level trough axis will swing
toward a negative tilt and closed upper-level low will develop
overhead. The dynamics and divergence aloft will cause coastal
low pressure to strengthen as it passes through our area today.

For early this morning, moisture from the atlantic has already
gotten drawn into this system, and overrunning has led to
increasing coverage of rain, and that trend will continue for
this morning, especially east of the interstate 81 corridor to
the bay.

The coastal low will strengthen as it moves into the area later
this morning from the south, and at the same time an upper-level
low will be closing off overhead. This will cause rainfall rates
to increase, with moderate to heavy rain expected near and east
of the blue ridge and catoctin mountains. The moderate to heavy
rain will continue through this afternoon, first ahead of the
coastal low and then from wrap around moisture behind the
coastal low toward this evening. Farther west (near and west of
interstate 81), there will be a tight gradient between
significant rainfall and little rainfall. However, latest
guidance does indicate that this system should track far enough
west for rain to occur across these areas as well. Rainfall
amounts will be noticeably lower due to less moisture and less
forcing farther away from the coastal low.

Guidance continues to be in good agreement with 1-3" of rain
most likely from near the the blue ridge and catoctin mountains
to the bay. Will continue with the flood watch for north-
central maryland as well as the washington and baltimore
metropolitan areas. FFG is a bit lower particularly in the urban
areas, so this may lead to creeks and streams rising out of
their banks as well as flooding in low-lying urban areas. The
best chance for flooding will be this afternoon into this
evening. Did contemplate extending the watch farther south and
west for areas between the blue ridge and interstate 81 corridor
as well as the virginia piedmont. Rainfall amounts may be just
as high across these areas. However, FFG is a bit higher given
the recent dry conditions so confidence was too low at this time
to extend. Will continue to monitor rainfall rates throughout
the day.

Bottom line for today, a soaking rain will occur for most of the
day and flooding is possible, especially in the washington and
baltimore metropolitan areas into north-central maryland.

There may be just enough cold air for snow along the ridge tops
above 3000 feet. However, precipitation rates will not be as
heavy this far west so dynamical cooling may not be quite as
prominent as it would have been if the axis of heavier
precipitation were to occur farther west. Therefore, at this
time latest thinking is that snowfall amounts would be light and
confined to the highest elevations above 3kft in highland and
pendleton county as well as the blue ridge mountains.

The coastal low will continue to strengthen as it moves off to
our north and east this evening. Wrap around moisture will
continue to bring rain, especially across northern and central
areas. A northwest flow will develop on the back side of the
low, and cold advection will increase the chances for snow
showers along and west of the allegheny front. The low will
continue to move off to the northeast overnight and drier air
will gradually work its way into most areas, but again more
upslope snow showers are expected along and west of the
allegheny front.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
The coastal low will continue to intensify over new england
Friday as it phases with more northern stream energy from the
great lakes. The shortwave energy will pass through our area
Friday afternoon, and this will lead to scattered showers across
most areas. A rumble of thunder or small hail cannot be ruled
out due to an abundant amount of cold air aloft that will be
associated with the shortwave energy diving through. For
locations along and west of the allegheny front, snow showers
are expected and accumulation is likely. There is some
uncertainty as to how much accumulation there will be due to the
higher Sun angle this time of year, but it does appear that
there will be times of hazardous conditions due to heavier snow
showers. In fact, a few snow squalls cannot be ruled out given
the unstable atmosphere.

As the low intensifies later Friday afternoon and Friday night,
this will cause a strong pressure gradient overhead in response
to the low over eastern maine and high pressure over the western
great lakes. The strong gradient along with subsidence behind
the departing shortwave energy will lead to gusty northwest
winds. Wind gusts around 50 mph are possible, especially across
the ridges but even in the valleys across eastern west virginia
toward northern virginia and the washington and baltimore
metropolitan areas. Confidence for the strong winds is not quite
as high as the ridges since the best forcing will be somewhat
displaced from daytime heating. However, given the latest
guidance it does appear that the low should strengthen rapidly
enough to overcome that factor. Wind advisories may be needed
during this time.

Winds will subside a little for Saturday and it will be dry
ahead of building high pressure. However, there should be enough
of a gradient for blustery conditions to continue, despite winds
diminishing a little. The high will build overhead Saturday
night and winds will diminish along with dry conditions.

However, it will be chilly.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Surface high pressure will be centered over the area early
Sunday and will quickly move offshore. With a ridge axis also
passing by aloft, warm advection will begin and help boost
temperatures above normal... Likely in the 60s for many. It will
be dry, but mid and high level clouds will increase during the
afternoon.

While the 00z runs of the main operational models have converged
a bit on a solution early next week, it's important to point out
the upper level pattern is complex and ensembles continue to
paint a range of solutions. A southern stream shortwave
ejecting eastward from the plains will interact with a northern
stream shortwave (and associated strong cold front) dropping
south from canada. If this happens quickly enough, the
associated surface low will likely pass to our northwest, and
the frontal progression will be quicker.

Some light precipitation may arrive as early as Sunday night as
moisture and ascent increases, but the highest chance of rain
looks to hold off until at least later Monday at this time. In
the more progressive solution, precipitation would exit by
Tuesday morning, with strong canadian high pressure building
southeast from the great lakes. This would result in qpf
amounts on the lighter side and any wintry precipitation more
unlikely, except maybe some brief upslope snow showers. Given
the recent flux of the forecast, won't be entirely removing pops
from Tuesday at this time, but the trend is in that direction.

The surface high should settle into the area Wednesday.

Temperatures will likely remain above normal Monday but then
tumble behind the frontal passage. Highs will only be in the 40s
and 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday, with lows in the 20s and
30s... About 10-15 degrees below normal for late march.

Aviation 07z Thursday through Monday
Coastal low pressure will bring a soaking rain to the terminals.

Rain will be heavy at times along with ifr conditions.

Northwest winds will gradually dry things out tonight with
slowly improving CIGS vsbys. Gusty northwest winds are expected
Friday into Saturday. The strongest winds are most likely Friday
afternoon and Friday night with gusts around 40 knots possible.

Scattered showers are expected Friday afternoon, and some of
those showers may produce small hail and perhaps even a rumble
of thunder.

High pressure will bringVFR conditions for Saturday through
Sunday. Winds will diminish Saturday night.

A frontal system will approach the area on Monday. While there
will be an increasing chance of rain, the forecast remains
uncertain, both in terms of timing and any impacts to aviation.

Marine
Coastal low pressure will pass through the waters today and then
it will move off to our northeast tonight through Friday night
while it strengthens.

The gradient will strengthen today, but it may be suppressed by
the lack of a mixing layer due to rainfall. Therefore, left the
headlines for now, with an SCA this morning for the lower
portion of the bay and lower tidal potomac river, then for the
the middle and lower portions of the bay and lower tidal potomac
river this afternoon. Would not be surprised to see some sca
gusts across northern portions of the waters later this
afternoon, but confidence was too low for a headline at this
time.

As the low strengthens and moves off to the northeast tonight,
northwest winds will increase and an SCA is in effect for all of
the waters. The low will continue to strengthen Friday through
Friday night before finally moving well off the new england
coast Saturday and Saturday night. Gusty northwest winds are
expected during this time. A gale warning is in effect for the
waters Friday through Friday evening. The strongest winds are
most likely late Friday afternoon and evening. The gale warning
may need to be extended overnight Friday into Saturday morning.

Gusty northwest winds will gradually subside later Saturday into
Saturday night as high pressure approaches.

One thing to note is that scattered showers are expected Friday
afternoon. The atmosphere will be unstable enough for the
possibility of a thunderstorm and small hail. Locally gusty
winds outside of the gradient winds are possible in convection
as well.

Light winds will become southerly on Sunday as high pressure
moves offshore. A frontal system will approach the area Monday.

While there will likely be an increase in winds with this
system, the timing and magnitude of the stronger winds remains
uncertain at this time.

Hydrology
Strong mid upper height falls PVA jet divergence and low-level
moisture flux as well as elevated instability will contribute to
a widespread soaking moderately heavy rain, generally from near
the blue ridge and catoctin mountains to the bay. Amounts of
1-2+ inches are likely here, with isolated totals around 3
inches possible. Should these higher totals be realized,
especially within a 6-9 hour window, minor flooding issues of
small creeks, streams and urban areas may result. The heaviest
and steadiest rain looks to be between 10 am and 6 pm today.

However, residual runoff issues may persist through the evening.

Tides coastal flooding
Increasing onshore flow ahead of a developing coastal low
pressure system will cause tidal anomalies to continue to
increase, with minor flooding possible this afternoon and
evening. Have favored the higher side of the guidance envelope
with support from the stevens ensemble, although will have to
monitor trends closely. Annapolis, straits point, and dc sw
waterfront have the highest probability of reaching minor flood
stage.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Flood watch from 10 am edt this morning through this evening
for dcz001.

Md... Flood watch from 10 am edt this morning through this evening
for mdz004>006-011-013-014-503>508.

Va... Flood watch from 10 am edt this morning through this evening
for vaz052>054-505-506.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon today to 6 am edt Friday for
anz532-533-540>542.

Gale warning from 6 am Friday to midnight edt Friday night for
anz530>543.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 6 am edt Friday
for anz530-531-535-536-538-539.

Small craft advisory from 6 am this morning to 6 am edt Friday
for anz534-537-543.

Synopsis... Bjl
near term... Bjl
short term... Bjl
long term... Ads
aviation... Bjl ads
marine... Bjl ads
hydrology... Dfh bjl
tides coastal flooding... Bjl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 9 mi36 min E 7 G 14 46°F 47°F1016.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 13 mi36 min ENE 8.9 G 9.9 45°F 1016.4 hPa
FSNM2 13 mi36 min NE 8.9 G 11 44°F 1015.8 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 14 mi36 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 44°F 47°F1016.2 hPa
CPVM2 23 mi36 min 46°F 46°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 25 mi36 min 46°F 1015.6 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 30 mi30 min E 8 G 8.9 46°F 45°F1016.7 hPa (-2.7)46°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 31 mi36 min E 5.1 G 7 44°F 48°F1017.7 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 43 mi120 min NNW 2.9 42°F 1017 hPa42°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 43 mi36 min E 7 G 8 44°F 43°F1017.6 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 43 mi36 min 1017 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 48 mi36 min NNE 1 G 5.1 44°F 50°F1016.1 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD5 mi45 minNE 53.00 miLight Rain46°F46°F100%1017.3 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD13 mi40 minNE 104.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist43°F41°F93%1017.6 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD15 mi36 minno data mi45°F42°F90%1016.6 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD20 mi36 minNE 52.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist44°F43°F96%1016.1 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD24 mi50 minE 63.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist46°F0°F%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5SE7SE6SE3CalmCalmNE4E6E9E7E8E8E4CalmE3NE3CalmCalmN4NE5
1 day agoCalmNW3CalmE5S7SE8SE8SE11SE10SE8SE7S6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE3NE5NE6NE10NE12E9SE7SE5SE6SE7SE5SE4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW4NW5W5NW4NW3NW3

Tide / Current Tables for Battery Point, Gunpowder River, Maryland
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Battery Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:00 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:31 AM EDT     1.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:21 PM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:12 PM EDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.40.100.10.40.91.21.51.51.310.60.2-0.1-0.2-0.20.10.50.91.31.41.41.2

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:00 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:07 AM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:13 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:20 PM EDT     -1.00 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:28 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:30 PM EDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:31 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1-0.9-0.5-00.50.910.90.60.1-0.4-0.8-1-0.9-0.7-0.20.30.70.90.90.70.3-0.2-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (7,2,3,4)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.