Sunrise 5:31 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 12:31 PM   Moonset 12:23 AM

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FXUS65 KREV 142039 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 139 PM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

SYNOPSIS

Gusty winds will result in critical fire weather conditions and choppy lakes today, and possibly on Sunday. Steady cooling is expected over the weekend, bringing temperatures back towards seasonal averages. Below normal temperatures and a slight chance of showers near the Oregon border is anticipated on Monday before slow warming and dry conditions settle in for the rest of next week.

DISCUSSION

Abundant sunshine and warm weather is well underway across the Sierra and western Nevada per latest observations. West to southwest winds will strengthen through the afternoon with gusts of 30-40 mph expected across western Nevada. As such, choppy lake waters and heightened fire weather concerns will serve as the primary weather issues today (more details in the Fire Weather section below).

A well-timed reprieve from the heat is in store for Father's Day weekend as highs reach the 70s and 80s for Sierra locales and western Nevada valleys, respectively. Each afternoon this weekend will be breezy, but Sunday afternoon presents the best opportunity for more impactful winds in regard to recreation and fire weather.
Southwest to west gusts will strengthen to 25-35 mph Sunday afternoon into the early evening, owing to increasing 700mb flow amid effective boundary layer mixing. As such, turbulent lake waters and renewed fire weather concerns are possible for Father's Day.

An upper shortwave will eject across the Pacific Northwest late Sunday into Monday, dislodging a cold front that will advance through the region on Monday. As a result, Monday will be the coolest day of the next seven days with daytime highs in the 60s and 70s. A few light showers are possible near the Oregon border where blended guidance has a 10-20% chance of rain on Monday. Mid-level height rises will induce slow warming after Monday, bringing temperatures back towards seasonal averages. Ensembles advertise rather mundane weather next week characterized by mild temperatures and dry conditions.

-Salas

AVIATION

Widespread VFR conditions will prevail today with gusty west winds up to 30 kts through the afternoon for Sierra Front terminals. LLWS and light to moderate turbulence are possible for KTRK/KTVL/KMMH through 03-06Z as FL100 winds strengthen to 30-40 kts above light surface winds.

-Salas

FIRE WEATHER

A Red Flag Warning will go into effect this afternoon for portions of western Nevada where gusty winds and low daytime humidity overlap with receptive fine fuel beds.

Latest surface observations reveal many sites within the area of concern are flirting with critical fire weather conditions with even a few sites meeting Red Flag criteria as winds continue to increase.
Southwest to west winds of 15-25 mph with gusts upwards of 40 mph and daytime humidity below 15% will support a 4-8 hour period of critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening across the northern Sierra Front into the Basin and Range where receptive fine fuels reside. Winds are expected to wane around or just after sunset, which will mitigate the threat somewhat, but critical fire weather conditions will persist well into the evening until wind gusts weaken in earnest. Furthermore, overnight recoveries this weekend will be quite poor for the valley floors and mid-slopes of western Nevada as humidity struggles to exceed 40% each night.

A very brief period of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions may exist Saturday afternoon under typical breezy winds, but strongest winds will be much weaker and less widespread compared to today. It is worth mentioning that a cold frontal passage will induce a wind shift from W to NW/N Saturday night, which may impact any new or existing ignitions across western Nevada. Sunday afternoon will feature the potential for a multi-hour period of critical fire weather conditions once again for western Nevada as winds strengthen.

-Salas

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening NVZ420.

Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening NVZ001>004.

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening NVZ423-429.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening CAZ071-072.

Sacramento, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

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Fri -- 01:28 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:32 AM PDT     2.47 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:41 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:00 AM PDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:36 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:48 PM PDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:31 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:32 PM PDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
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Sacramento, Tide feet

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