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FXUS65 KREV 170946 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 246 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS

Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist through Saturday with afternoon breezes continuing into next week. Regionally, conditions will remain mostly dry with the exception for low shower and thunderstorm chances in the eastern Sierra and far western NV south of Highway 50 on Saturday. Low pressure digging south will keep the breezes around for next week with seasonally mild temperatures.

DISCUSSION

* Unseasonably warm temperatures through Saturday with highs remaining about 5-10 degrees above normal.

* Afternoon breezes (typical of early summer) continue into the weekend. Look for locally choppy conditions on lake waters and impacts to activities that are more sensitive to breezy winds.

* 10% chance of thunder along the Mono County crest late this afternoon and a 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms south of Hwy 50 Saturday afternoon that may extend into far western NV locations. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail through the weekend.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

Ridge winds slacked up a bit overnight, and look to increase this morning into the afternoon as a weak cold frontal boundary continues across the northeast CA into the western NV and the Great Basin in general. As westerly winds turn more northerly behind the weakened front, we’ll will see the first phase of cooling spreading into the region today. If you feel a bit cooler this afternoon it won’t be your imagination. With the cooling across the region, upper levels will be cooling a bit faster which results in increased instability. With the current period of warmer May surface temperatures, this in turn will increase thunderstorm chances across the Sierra crest south of the Lake Tahoe Basin. Therefore, don’t be surprise if you see an isolated storm or two pop-up along higher complex terrain areas south of Markleeville into the the eastern Sierra-Mono County this afternoon. A few Hi-Res ensemble members have also added to the point spread for a 10-20% for storms that includes a few tenths of light QPF sprinkled on top for good measure.

On Saturday, an upper trough driving into the Pacific Northwest will sag south over northern areas of CA-NV, and increase westerly breezes over the region. The strongest winds will be north of Hwy 50 where gusts to 30-35 mph may be sufficient enough to bring some localized choppy lake waters across larger area lakes. Looking farther south through Mono-Mineral-S. Lyon counties, ensemble guidance projects a 20-30% potential for isolated-scattered showers/storms during the afternoon into the evening hours. Blended and ECS shift of tails ensemble guidance show a higher energy availability that still shows that a few stronger cells will be capable of some small hail, wind gusts to 40 mph, lightning and brief heavy rainfall.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND:

Ensemble clusters show a back-door like upper trough dropping into the region with afternoon breezes and temperatures cooling back to near or slightly above normal levels. With this projection still a few days out, some uncertainty prevails as to the definite track of this system will take as it pushes into the region. Cluster ensemble guidance, however, favors a more eastern trajectory for this incoming system. Therefore, blended guidance projects a wider spread of temperatures early next week. Although guidance is leaning drier overall with lowered shower chance for showers, much variability will follow forecast temperature and precipitation projections for the remainder of May. -Amanda

AVIATION

30-HR Operating Period (through 18/18Z): Look for VFR conditions for main terminals through the forecast period. FL100 winds from the West 15-25kts kts shifting to the North-Northwest after 18-21Z Friday after cold front passage through western NV with surface wind gust to20 kts through 03Z. A 10-15% chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms after 21Z near the Sierra crest south of KTVL after 21Z in vicinity of KBAN-KMMH. -Amanda

HYDROLOGY

Unseasonably warm daytime temperatures and mild nights, combined with higher solar angles, longer days, and limited cloud cover, will continue to increase snowmelt rates late week. Even the higher elevation deeper snow areas have begun to melt in earnest.

This rapid melt will lead to elevated flows with rivers and streams running cold and fast, most notably in areas draining significant terrain over ~7500 feet from Lake Tahoe south through Mono County. Rivers and streams in this area will remain high through the weekend, with the highest flows likely Thursday into Saturday.
Cooler temperatures and a depleting snow-covered contributing area will help reduce flows somewhat Sunday into early next week.

While these high and cold flows can be hazardous to recreationalists, flooding is very unlikely. Remember the highest flows are significantly lagged from the heat of the day and can often occur at night.

More steady high flows will also continue along the Lower Humboldt, with additional rises likely in very late May or early June.

Please use extra caution around local rivers and streams which will be running fast and cold and can be very hazardous if entered.

TB/Amanda



REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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