Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Estell Manor, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 6:53PM Saturday September 23, 2017 4:08 PM EDT (20:08 UTC) Moonrise 10:02AMMoonset 9:08PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 316 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 14 seconds.
Sun..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 14 seconds.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 15 seconds.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 15 seconds.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..NE winds around 15 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
ANZ400 316 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure remains entrenched over the northeast before weakening by the middle of the week. Hurricane maria will track northward over the atlantic waters, approaching the coastal carolinas on Wednesday, then curving out to sea on Thursday as a cold front passes through the region. High pressure builds east to close out the week. &&

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Estell Manor, NJ
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location: 39.37, -74.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 231935
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
335 pm edt Sat sep 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure remains entrenched over the northeast before weakening
by the middle of the week. Hurricane maria will track northward over
the atlantic waters, approaching the coastal carolinas on Wednesday,
then curving out to sea on Thursday as a cold front passes through
the region. High pressure builds east to close out the week.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
High pressure will remain nearby tonight and fair weather is
expected tonight. Under clear skies, temperatures will drop into the
low mid 60s in most areas. There could be a few patches of ground
fog overnight, confid in this is low however. I will keep it out of
the public fcst for now. Winds will be light and variable after
sunset.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
The surface high will remain just west of the region Sunday while
the upper high remain overhead. A continuation of fair weather along
with very warm temperatures is expected. We expect high temperatures
to be around 90 degrees in many areas, a bit cooler at the shore and
in the poconos. Humidity levels will be a little higher, but overall
not too uncomfortable. Winds will be light from the NE during the
morning then E or SE during the afternoon.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
Monday... Surface high remains over the region. As a result
expect continued dry and very warm weather. We could get close
to record highs at inland locations (see climate section for
the current record highs for those days). Forecast is a few
degrees above most guidance as the increasing thicknesses and
abundant sunshine should win out over the light northerly flow.

Closer to the coast however, a light onshore flow could temper
the warming trend.

Tuesday... Surface high weakens. As it does so, we could have
some showers develop, primarily diurnally driven (rain
associated with the low over eastern canada will stay well to
our northwest.

Wednesday... Depending on how close hurricane maria gets to the
outer banks during this period, we may see some outer rain bands
reach the coastal plains in our area. The center of maria is
expected to stay well to our south (by a few hundred miles)
through this period. Please see the forecast discussion from the
national hurricane center for the latest information on the
track.

Thursday... There are two things to watch through this period. First,
the cold front still looks on track to propagate through our region
late Wednesday night into Thursday. That will bring us back to near
normal temperatures (although depending on how quickly it moves
through, we may not notice it until Friday). The other thing we will
be watching is the eventual track of maria. Nearly all guidance
continues to show the storm taking a hard turn to the right
during this period in response to the cold front moving off
shore. If this trend continues, even tropical storm force winds
should stay well south of our region.

Friday and Saturday... Cooler and drier air should settle in
over the region. Temperatures through this period are likely to
be near or slightly below normal (in stark contrast to the
beginning of the week).

Aviation 20z Saturday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

High pressure across the area will ensure a continuation ofVFR
conditions with few clouds through Sunday. Winds which are mostly
from the N this afternoon will decrease to less than 5 knots
overnight. Winds on Sunday may become NE or E by afternoon, but
remain under 10 knots. It appears to be too dry to support anything
more than patchy fog overnight. We will leave it out of the tafs
attm.

Outlook...

Monday... MostlyVFR conditions are expected.

Tuesday and wedensday... MostlyVFR conditions expected. There is a
chance for showers both days (if any showers move over a taf
site, MVFR or lower conditions are possible). Northeasterly
wind up to 10 kt possible.

Thursday... A cold front will bring a shift to northwesterly
winds and a slight chance for showers. Otherwise, mostlyVFR
conditions are expected.

Marine
We will continue with the SCA for hazardous seas across the
southern waters and drop it further north. The wave heights
continue to slowly decrease and are mostly around 3-4 ft north
and around 5 ft south attm. Guidance shows that this decreasing
trend will continue into the evening and then slowly reverse Sunday.

Eventually, the SCA flag will return to the northern waters later
Sunday when seas could reach 5 to 6 ft again. Overall, a long period
swell with the offshore tropical systems and some minor winds waves
too. Fair weather tonight and Sunday.

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday... An SCA will likely be needed for the
entire period on the ocean waters as elevated seas due to
swells associated hurricane maria will be observed through this
time. Seas will gradually build to 8-12 feet by Wednesday. Gusts
up to 25 kt will be possible especially on the delaware coastal
waters Tuesday and Wednesday. Elevated waves will be possible
at the mouth of the delaware bay. Otherwise, winds and waves
should stay below SCA criteria on the bay.

Thursday... A cold front will bring a shift to northwesterly
winds and gusts above 25 kt likely on the atlantic coastal
waters. In addition, seas will likely still be elevated due to
swells from maria.

Rip currents...

swells from the remains of jose will continue today (generally
4 to 6 feet from the northeast with a period of 9-10 seconds),
but with time, swells from maria will become a bigger player
(generally 2-3 feet from the southeast with a period of 13-16
seconds). For this evening, this will create rather chaotic
surf. Based on reports we've had from local officials, we've
upgraded to a high threat for the formation of dangerous rip
currents today. If entering the surf zone, be especially
cautious today. Only swim in the presence of lifeguards beach
patrols, and heed the advice of local officials.

Sunday... A moderate risk for dangerous rip currents is expected
for Sunday.

Monday... A 5 or 6 foot SE swell of 15 seconds is expected to be
dominant and could result in a high risk.

Tuesday... An 8 foot 15 second swell should be dominant by that
time. If this trend continues, this would result in a high risk.

Wednesday... Around an 11 to 13 foot SE swell at 15 seconds. This
would mean a high risk.

Thursday the 28th... Still a 10 foot SE swell at 14 seconds. This
would mean a high risk.

Friday... Maybe down to 5 or 6 feet and a moderate or high risk.

Climate
With high temperatures making a run at 90 Sunday and Monday across
portions of the region, some record high temperatures may be tied or
broken. The highest chances are for inland locations as onshore flow
may slightly temper the warming trend at acy and ged.

Here are the records for both days.

Sunday
acy-92(2010)
phl 95(1970)
ilg-92(2010)
abe-92(1970)
ttn-92(1970)
ged-97(2010)
rdg-95(1970)
mpo-85(2010)
Monday
acy-91(1970)
phl-92(1970)
ilg-93(1970)
abe-92(1970)
ttn-92(1970)
ged-92(2010 and 1970)
rdg-92(1970)
mpo-85(1970)

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... High rip current risk until 9 pm edt this evening for njz014-
024>026.

De... High rip current risk until 9 pm edt this evening for dez004.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 pm edt Sunday
for anz452>455.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... O'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Johnson
aviation... Johnson o'hara
marine... Johnson o'hara
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 16 mi51 min 75°F 74°F1016.7 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 18 mi99 min NW 2.9 85°F 1017 hPa65°F
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 31 mi51 min NW 8 G 9.9 79°F 74°F1016.2 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 34 mi57 min NW 5.1 G 6 79°F 1017.1 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 35 mi51 min WNW 8.9 G 9.9 79°F 74°F1016.3 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 43 mi159 min NNW 5.1 83°F 1018 hPa64°F
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi51 min 86°F 73°F1016 hPa
BDSP1 46 mi51 min 85°F 1016.8 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 46 mi51 min NNW 6 G 7 77°F 73°F1016.7 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 47 mi51 min 84°F 75°F1016.4 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 48 mi57 min 86°F 76°F1016.5 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 48 mi51 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 82°F 71°F1016.7 hPa

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ10 mi75 minNW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F64°F49%1016.4 hPa
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ19 mi75 minN 910.00 miFair88°F66°F48%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W8NW5W6NW3NW4N4NW5NW4NW5N7N8N7N7N7N7N8N8N10N8
G15
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1 day agoNE7Calm--CalmCalmCalmN3CalmNW6CalmNW4N4NW4NW6N5N10NW9N11NW7N11
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2 days agoN11NW10N4NW4N4NW3N5NW4NW4NW5NW5NW3NW4NW4NW7NW7N10N11N14
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G16
NE7

Tide / Current Tables for River Bend Marina, Great Egg Harbor River, New Jersey
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River Bend Marina
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:02 AM EDT     4.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:29 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:27 PM EDT     4.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 06:57 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
43.83.22.31.40.70.30.30.91.82.83.74.14.13.62.921.10.60.40.71.42.33.1

Tide / Current Tables for Beesleys Point, New Jersey
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Beesleys Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:32 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:13 AM EDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:57 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:29 PM EDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.62.92.11.20.50.10.10.81.92.93.74.143.42.61.710.40.20.51.52.53.23.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.