Monday, June17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Estell Manor, NJ

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Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:28PM Monday June 17, 2019 5:03 PM EDT (21:03 UTC) Moonrise 8:54PMMoonset 5:47AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 408 Pm Edt Mon Jun 17 2019
.severe Thunderstorm watch 392 in effect until 11 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft early this evening, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms early, then showers and tstms likely this evening. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms early in the afternoon. Showers and tstms likely late.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Showers and tstms likely early in the evening, then showers likely in the late evening and overnight.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Showers likely early in the morning. A chance of showers late in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 408 Pm Edt Mon Jun 17 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A frontal boundary will remain stalled near the area through the week with several waves of low pressure moving along the boundary. The front will finally push to our south Friday as an area of low pressure strengthens and moves to our northeast. High pressure briefly affects the area Saturday before shifting offshore and to our south Saturday night into Sunday. A warm front will lift across the area Sunday night into Monday as an area of low pressure moves across the great lakes region into southeast canada.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Estell Manor, NJ
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location: 39.37, -74.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 172012
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
412 pm edt Mon jun 17 2019

Synopsis
A frontal boundary will remain stalled near the area through
the week with several waves of low pressure moving along the
boundary. The front will finally push to our south Friday as an
area of low pressure strengthens and moves to our northeast.

High pressure briefly affects the area Saturday before shifting
offshore and to our south Saturday night into Sunday. A warm
front will lift across the area Sunday night into Monday as an
area of low pressure moves across the great lakes region into
southeast canada.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
As of 405 pm, a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued from
about the philadelphia metro area on south and east. This is in
effect until 11 pm. Damaging straight-line wind gusts is the
main threat.

Otherwise, a nearly stationary front remains in our area with
persist cloud cover and some showers to its north, while south
of the front much more heating is occurring with temperatures
into the 80s. This front is draped from west to east, which is
more parallel to the mid level flow and could result in some
training of convective cells. Meanwhile, a weak short wave in
south- central pennsylvania this afternoon looks to be a weak
mcv and this will track eastward. This combined with orographic
forcing will assist in convective development across the area
into this evening. A band of light showers across parts of the
northern and far western areas is weak but has been persistent,
and plenty of cloud cover across the northern half of the area
is holding down the temperatures and thus the instability. Some
lower clouds are also occurring mainly north of the front.

A mesoscale analysis this afternoon indicates that surface-
based instability is in the 1000-2000 j kg range from roughly
the philadelphia metro southward with mixed-layer instability of
500- 1500 j kg. While the midlevel lapse rates are not all that
steep, the low-level lapse rates are steep across the southern
zones where temperatures are in the 80s. The flow aloft is
mostly westerly at 40- 50 knots of flow between 700 mb and 500
mb. This results in 30-40 knots of shear, which should tend to
favor organized clusters or line segments. The airmass is rather
warm with the freezing level near 13,000 feet with midlevel
lapse rates on the weak side, therefore severe hail may be less
of a threat unless some convection can develop some midlevel
rotation.

Given the parameters in place, any organized and stronger
convection is anticipated to be south of i-78 and especially
from near the philadelphia metro on southward. The greatest risk
area for severe thunderstorms is across about the southern half
of the area, and convective organization would greatly improve
cold pool development. The forecast soundings from around the
philadelphia metro into southern new jersey and northern
delaware do show some veering with height in the low levels this
evening, although the overall flow is light. This however could
be enough to get some low-level rotation and pose a non-zero
tornado risk, especially if some stronger storms track near the
stalled surface front. Overall, locally straight-line damaging
wind gusts are the main threat.

The flash flood threat mostly depends on if convection can
train over the same area for awhile. Some guidance continues to
hint at this idea, and given the warm and humid airmass in place
some potential still exists. Therefore, the flash flood watch
remains unchanged from previously.

As for the temperatures, mostly blended the MOS in with
continuity. It will be a muggy night although slightly drier air
may get into our far northern zones through the night.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
A similar synoptic setup for Tuesday as our region remains in a
more zonal flow aloft with a weak surface front oscillating
across our area. Within this flow regime, subtle short waves
will traverse our area and some of these will probably be
convective remnants (mcv) from previous day storms. One of these
may be moving across mostly the northern areas during the
morning, with associated mostly shower activity. Much of the
region should start the day with low clouds, with this most
likely along and north of the aforementioned surface front.

The convective evolution through the day Tuesday could be a
challenge due to morning clouds and showers. Convective
development could be enhanced a little though due to a subtle
weak southern stream short wave trough moving northeastward from
the southern states. It is the southern half of the area that
appears to have the better chance of achieving higher
instability, however the severe thunderstorm threat looks to be
reduced due to poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy. As a result,
the SPC has about the southern half of our area in a marginal
risk for severe thunderstorms.

An abundance of moisture will again be in place especially the
southern half of the area, with precipitable water values around
2 inches. This will result in locally very heavy rain and at
least a localized flash flood threat does exist. However, the
scope of the threat is less certain given uncertainty with the
overall convective evolution. We therefore held off with
extending the current flash flood watch beyond 6 am. This will
be re-evaluated with subsequent shifts. The flow in the mid
levels should be strong enough to promote storm organization
into clusters during the afternoon, and where the boundary layer
heating is maximized is where a locally strong to damaging wind
gust is possible.

Cloud cover and some morning showers will hold temperatures
down again across the northern areas, therefore the high
temperatures are mostly a MOS continuity blend which lowered the
highs some across the north especially.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
Unsettled weather continues to be expected for the middle to
end of the week, with drier conditions early in the weekend,
with more unsettled weather late in the weekend into early next
week.

A frontal boundary will remain near the area Tuesday night
through Thursday with multiple waves of low pressure moving
along this boundary. Meanwhile, multiple short waves vorticity
impulses will move across the area within the west to southwest
flow aloft. There will continue to be instability across the
area, there will continue to be a chance of thunderstorms as
well. Pw values will remain elevated with values 1.5-2.0 inches,
which will continue the threat for heavy rainfall. While it
will not rain the entire time, the periods with the greatest
rain chances will be tied to the strongest short wave vorticity
impulses and surface low passages. Tuesday evening, Wednesday
afternoon evening, and Thursday afternoon evening. The late
overnight and early morning periods may have breaks in
precipitation.

As we go later in the day Thursday into Thursday night, an area
of low pressure will be moving our north and strengthen as it
does so, which will drag a cold front across the area. This
front may not fully clear our area and push to our south until
during the day Friday. So this will keep enhanced precipitation
chances through Thursday night and Friday morning. There remains
instability later Thursday into Thursday night, so
thunderstorms will remain in the forecast, and with pw values
approaching 2.0 inches, heavy rainfall could continue to be a
threat. As the front pushes to our south and east during the day
Friday, the showers will come to and end. Winds could be quite
gusty later Friday, possibly reaching 20-30 mph during the
afternoon.

High pressure builds to our west on Friday night, briefly
building over the area Saturday, then shifting southward and
offshore Saturday night. Dry conditions are expected during this
period as the front will be south of the area. However, this
could begin to change by Sunday into Monday of next week as the
front to the south is forecast to begin moving back northward as
a warm front. This could bring a return of shower thunderstorm
chances late in the weekend into early next week.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of this afternoon... Some MVFR ceilings (near 2000 feet)
especially at abe to ttn, otherwise mainlyVFR. Some showers and
thunderstorms with times of MVFR ifr. Variable winds overall
near 5 knots, with some terminals favoring a south or southwest
wind. Low confidence on timing and areal extent of thunder.

Tonight... Some showers and thunderstorms with MVFR ifr at
times, with most of the activity before 06z 2am, then MVFR to
even ifr ceilings overnight. Winds light and variable overall.

Tuesday... MVFR to ifr ceilings in the morning should improve to
vfr at most terminals (abe to ttn may remain MVFR). Some rounds
of showers and mainly afternoon thunderstorms are expected,
which will result in times of MVFR ifr conditions. Light and
variable winds should turn light northerly before becoming
locally light south or southwest. Lowered confidence on the
extent of thunder and wind direction.

Outlook...

Tuesday night-Wednesday night... Periods of MVFR ceilings
possible. Showers and thunderstorms possible, which could lead
to lower conditions.

Thursday... Conditions may improve toVFR during the day.

However, showers and thunderstorms remain possible which may
lead to lower conditions. Southwest winds could gust 15-20 knots
at times.

Thursday night... VFR possible early, lowering to MVFR
overnight. Especially with any showers and thunderstorms.

Friday... MVFR conditions possible early, before improving to
vfr during the day. Winds shift to northwest with gusts 20-25
knots.

Friday night-Saturday...VFR conditions expected. Northwest
winds may gust 15-20 knots during the day Saturday.

Marine
The conditions are expected to remain below small craft
advisory through Tuesday. Winds should favor a southerly
direction, however then turn easterly across the far northern
atlantic coastal waters Tuesday afternoon. A few stronger
thunderstorms through this evening and then again Tuesday
afternoon could produce 34 knots or greater wind gusts.

Outlook...

Tuesday night-Thursday... Conditions expected to remain below
advisory levels. However, high winds and waves are possible in
and around thunderstorms.

Thursday night-Friday night... Small craft advisory conditions
possible with guts 25-30 knots possible.

Saturday... Conditions expected to drop below advisory levels by
Saturday.

Rip currents...

a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents is
expected to continue through Tuesday with waves in the surf zone
3 feet or less. A long period swell near 14 seconds could be
more present as we go through Tuesday and this could elevate the
rip risk, however waves are expected to remain on the lower
side.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Flash flood watch through late tonight for paz060-061-070-071-
101>106.

Nj... Flash flood watch through late tonight for njz009-010-012>027.

De... Flash flood watch through late tonight for dez001>004.

Md... Flash flood watch through late tonight for mdz008-012-015-019-
020.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Gorse
short term... Gorse
long term... Robertson
aviation... Gorse robertson
marine... Gorse robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 16 mi33 min 74°F 67°F1015.3 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 18 mi93 min ESE 6 74°F 1015 hPa64°F
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 31 mi33 min SSE 7 G 8.9 80°F 74°F1014.5 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 34 mi87 min 1016 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 35 mi33 min SSE 7 G 8 79°F 75°F1014.4 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi33 min 74°F 71°F1014.4 hPa
BDSP1 46 mi33 min 74°F 72°F1015.2 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 46 mi33 min SSE 6 G 11 81°F 72°F1015 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 47 mi39 min 1013.8 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 48 mi39 min NE 7 G 8 80°F 72°F1014.3 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 48 mi39 min 82°F 74°F1014.2 hPa

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ10 mi69 minWNW 310.00 miA Few Clouds87°F69°F55%1014.8 hPa
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ19 mi69 minW 10 G 1510.00 miFair88°F66°F50%1014.5 hPa

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S7S6N3E3CalmS3SW5SW5S3SW5W7W4SW5W6N74NW3W3CalmNW8NW7W3SE7
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Tide / Current Tables for River Bend Marina, Great Egg Harbor River, New Jersey
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River Bend Marina
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:31 AM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 04:34 AM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:22 AM EDT     3.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:35 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:39 PM EDT     4.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.42.41.40.5-0.1-0.10.41.42.33.13.63.532.21.40.70.20.20.71.72.83.74.44.5

Tide / Current Tables for Mays Landing, Great Egg Harbor River, New Jersey
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Mays Landing
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:31 AM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 05:20 AM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:00 AM EDT     4.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:21 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:17 PM EDT     5.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.63.62.41.30.4-0.2-00.81.933.84.23.93.12.21.40.60.20.31.12.33.64.65.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (17,4,5,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.