Thursday, November23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pleasantville, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 4:39PM Thursday November 23, 2017 11:00 PM EST (04:00 UTC) Moonrise 11:51AMMoonset 10:01PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 926 Pm Est Thu Nov 23 2017
Overnight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Fri night..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of showers late.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ400 926 Pm Est Thu Nov 23 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure currently over the region will move slowly offshore on Friday as a cold front approaches the region from the west. This cold front will pass through the region on Saturday. Another area of high pressure will build into the region for the early part of next week then move offshore with the approach of another cold front by the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pleasantville, NJ
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location: 39.38, -74.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 240224
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
924 pm est Thu nov 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure currently over the region will move slowly
offshore on Friday as a cold front approaches the region from
the west. This cold front will pass through the region on
Saturday. Another area of high pressure will build into the
region for the early part of next week then move offshore with
the approach of another cold front by the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
High pressure located over virginia this evening will continue
to influence our weather overnight.

An area of high based stratocumulus was approaching from
western and north central pennsylvania this evening. However,
the guidance continues to suggest that it will erode before
reaching our region. As a result, we are expecting a mostly
clear sky.

The light wind will allow for nearly ideal radiating
conditions. We are anticipating low temperatures to be mostly in
the 20s with some upper teens readings up north and in the
interior of southern new jersey.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday
Sunny. Milder in the afternoon after a chilly start. Light wind
trending south to southwest in the afternoon. MAX temps
generally within 2f of normal. Due to poor mixing despite a
sunny day and after early morning chill... Think phl MAX will be
51.

There may be a signal developing in some of the guidance with a
long dry spell apparently developing. High pressure and
radiation cooling options at night may verify temps lower than
guidance. Ggem seems to have that idea. This is due to lack of
mixing except a day before a frontal passage (gradient SW flow).

Daytime max's may not be as high GFS guidance suggests... In
part because of short days.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
Friday night through Saturday night:
high pressure will continue to move offshore Friday night
giving way to an approaching cold frontal boundary. This cold
front will move through the area on Saturday. Overall, timing
remains consistent on various models and ensembles for an
afternoon evening frontal passage. Enough lift and moisture
should be present for a few spotty rain showers, primarily in
the afternoon hours. Temperatures Saturday morning may be close
enough to freezing in the southern poconos and NW nj for a
freezing rain concern. Right now any precipitation is expected
to hold off till mid-morning when it warms well above freezing.

Precipitation looks very light, only a few hundredths at best. A
few southerly wind gusts in the afternoon around 15 mph are
possible before the frontal passage. Northwest flow on the
backside of the front could also kick off some sprinkles and
flurries toward sunrise that could be enhanced where the
elevation is highest (southern poconos and NW nj).

Sunday through Thursday:
a fairly strong push of cold air advection will occur behind
the front. This will lead to another period of more winter like
temperatures across the region with stronger northwest winds,
gusting perhaps to 25 mph on Sunday. The northwest flow may also
allow for some moisture to transport southeast off of the great
lakes. The moisture could be enhanced by the higher terrain.

Highs Sunday and Monday will generally be in the 40's with
overnight lows will be in the 20's and 30's. Conditions are
expected to clear later Sunday and Monday as the northwest flow
weakens and high pressure builds into the region.

We should see a fairly quick rebound Tuesday and Wednesday with
temperatures into the 50's, maybe 60 Wednesday? Right now the
forecast stays close or a little above to the mean of the
ensemble guidance on Tuesday and Wednesday. A majority of
ensemble guidance does indicate a pattern favorable for a period
of warm weather. However, the 12z op ec 11 23 does indicate a
stronger push of cold air advection from the northwest Monday
into Tuesday which would lead to lower temperatures. The op ec
looks like an outlier solution at this time. Some uncertainty is
also present with the speed of a cold frontal boundary moving
toward the area sometime Wednesday or more likely Thursday of
next week. For now, went middle of the road between the GFS and
ecmwf and brought in a chance of showers on Thursday. This has
trended a little slower the last couple of model runs. After a
warmer Wednesday, temperatures Thursday should cool a few
degrees back closer to normal.

Happy thanksgiving from all of us here at the national weather
service in mount holly!

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Overnight...VFR conditions with a mostly clear sky. A light and
variable wind.

Friday...VFR conditions with a clear sky. A light and variable
wind becoming southwest around 4 to 6 knots.

Outlook...

Friday night:VFR, westerly winds becoming southwesterly but
staying at 10 knots or less. High confidence.

Saturday and Saturday night: sub-vfr possible with some
scattered showers primarily from 15 to 23z. Southerly wind gusts
10-15 knots, becoming northwest Saturday night. Medium to high
confidence.

Sunday and Sunday night:VFR, a few sprinkles or flurries
possible at kabe Sunday morning. Northwest wind gusts from 20-25
knots. Medium confidence.

Monday through Tuesday night:VFR, west winds around 10-15
knots becoming more southerly on Tuesday. High confidence.

Marine
No marine headlines anticipated through Friday. A 3 foot se
swell at 10 seconds is the primary driver of the atlantic
coastal waters forecast.

Outlook...

Friday night: sub-sca southwesterly wino below SCA levels under
15 knots and seas around three feet. High confidence.

Saturday and Saturday night: seas building late Saturday but
staying under 5 feet. Southwesterly wind gusts 15-20 knots in
the afternoon. Winds becoming northwesterly Saturday night and
increasing to 20- 25 knots. Medium confidence.

Sunday and Sunday night: seas steady just under five feet with
some northwest wind gusts around 25 knots. An SCA currently
looks like it will be needed in this period. Medium confidence.

Monday through Tuesday night: westerly wind gusts generally
around 15 knots but increasing on Tuesday closer to 25 knots.

Seas decrease Monday but should begin to build up by Tuesday
close to five feet. Low to medium confidence.

Climate
As it stands with our 330pm forecast. It appears the month will
average about a degree or 2 below normal vcnty i-80, near or
slightly below normal remainder of the area except about a
degree above normal near ged. Short waves passing through
eastern canada have not dug quite as far south as indicated 8
days ago when it appeared a below normal month was probable.

This would end up being about degree warmer than our
deterministic solution from the 15th.

There is still uncertainty regarding how temperatures verify
from Tuesday the 28th onward. Todays 12z 23 ggem and ecmwf
operational cycles for 2m temps are significantly cooler for a
day or two between Tuesday and Thursday (28-30th). For now we
lean with the warmer GFS per the GEFS and even the ecefs.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Gaines
near term... Iovino
short term... Drag
long term... Gaines
aviation... Gaines iovino
marine... Drag gaines
climate... Drag


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 6 mi43 min 37°F 51°F1018.5 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 11 mi91 min SSW 2.9 28°F 1018 hPa25°F
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 37 mi43 min WNW 5.1 G 7 40°F 50°F1018 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 42 mi49 min WNW 8.9 G 12 41°F 1018.8 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 46 mi43 min WSW 7 G 8 39°F 50°F1018.1 hPa

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ6 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair30°F23°F75%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11NW6CalmW3NW5W3W3NW5NW6NW6NW9NW10NW7N5W5NW7W5W6W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS11
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S9S9W11SW7S7S3S5NW5W7NW9NW11NW12NW12
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2 days agoS5S4S3S5S5S4S6SW8S6SW8S12
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Tide / Current Tables for Pleasantville, Lakes Bay, Great Egg Harbor Inlet, New Jersey
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Pleasantville
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:22 AM EST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:10 AM EST     4.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:06 PM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:01 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:49 PM EST     3.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.32.82.11.40.90.60.71.32.33.23.843.93.52.71.81.10.60.40.61.32.22.93.2

Tide / Current Tables for Atlantic City, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Atlantic City
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:44 AM EST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:09 AM EST     4.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:45 PM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:00 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:39 PM EST     3.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.61.91.20.80.711.62.53.444.24.13.62.71.81.10.60.50.81.42.22.83.13.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.