Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairton, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:11PM Monday January 22, 2018 5:23 AM EST (10:23 UTC) Moonrise 10:23AMMoonset 10:40PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 338 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon...
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late. A chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft until late afternoon, then 2 ft or less. Periods of rain in the morning, then showers likely early in the afternoon. A chance of showers late.
Tue night..W winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming S around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 338 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure off the southeast united states coast continues to drift offshore today as a warm front ahead of low pressure over the central plains lifts north through the region. That low moves through the region on Tuesday, and then a cold front passes through the region Tuesday night. High pressure builds into the region through the end of the week before moving offshore on Saturday. Another low pressure system looks to affect the region next weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairton, NJ
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location: 39.38, -75.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 220836
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
336 am est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
High pressure off the southeast united states coast continues
to drift offshore today as a warm front ahead of low pressure
over the central plains lifts north through the region. That low
moves through the region on Tuesday, and then a cold front
passes through the region Tuesday night. High pressure builds
into the region through the end of the week before moving
offshore on Saturday. Another low pressure system looks to
affect the region next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Tricky forecast today, as a cyclone in the central plains
(currently in northwest missouri) and its eastward-extending
baroclinic zone are expected to move little through the daylight
hours. Isentropic lift atop the boundary in the northern mid-
atlantic has generated patchy drizzle and fog in the northern
cwa and even some light showers north of i-78, though these
should shift east of the area within the next few hours. With
very little movement expected with the surface low during the
next 12 hours, I am very skeptical that the warm front in our
region will be moving much today. Surface obs do not provide a
very obvious position of the boundary (with associated gradients
in potential temperature, mixing ratio, and winds rather
diffuse), but there is reason to suspect that the i-
76 i-276 i-195 corridors are a good starting point with most of
the accumulating precipitation to the north, and this may be
"north-generous" given the sharper temperature gradient and
more noticeable wind shift increase in the DELMARVA peninsula.

Some of the hi-res models are beginning to clue in on this
slower retreat of the warm front northward today, and even
statistical guidance is hinting at east or northeast winds north
of i-78 through most if not all of the day. Should such flow
become established, topographic effects (i.E., cold air damming)
could prove too much for the warm front to overcome today in
the northern cwa. With collaboration from okx, decided to lower
hourly temperatures in the northern third to half of the cwa
quite a bit today (in some cases, by 3-7 degrees). There is real
potential for large errors in MAX temperature forecasts across
the area. Note that current (3 am) temperatures in southern
delaware are in the mid 50s, with upper 30s in the northern cwa.

It is quite possible northern new jersey and eastern pa
struggle to reach the middle 40s while georgetown, de, is
flirting with the middle 60s. For the philadelphia metro, the
current forecast is for highs in the middle 50s, but anything
between 50 and 60 is certainly plausible.

Regarding precipitation, think very little measurable
precipitation will occur in our CWA today. North of the warm
front, patchy fog and drizzle should occur and have modified the
grids considerably to indicate this. A vort MAX will approach
the northeast late today, but the strongest lift looks to be to
our northwest, with little QPF generated in most of the models
(hi- and lo-res) in our cwa. Retained occasional slight chances
in the poconos and vicinity, but confidence in occurrence,
coverage, and timing is not high.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
The surface cyclone in the central plains gets a boost from a
digging shortwave trough in south-central canada tonight, and it
will begin to lift east-northeast to the great lakes by 12z
Tuesday. This should allow the warm front across the area to
lift gradually northward overnight (though I suspect not as
aggressively as most of the models are depicting). Residual
fog drizzle was extended in the forecast through the evening
hours approximately north of i-80 to account for the suspected
sluggishness of this northward retreat.

Meanwhile, a strong vort MAX will approach the mid-atlantic
tonight, and large-scale lift via the combination of
differential cyclonic vorticity advection, rather pronounced
warm advection (especially near north of the warm front), and
improved positioning of an approaching upper-level jet streak
will generate widespread showers and maybe even a lightning
strike or two to our west overnight. This precipitation should
spread into our area with time, most likely after midnight.

The synoptically-induced low-level jet stream will be quite
strong (925-mb flow of 50+ kts). Though mixing of these winds to
the surface will be mitigated by nocturnal stabilization, even
weak downdrafts in convective showers may provide the means to
do so. Think this threat is more pronounced after the short-term
period, but we will need to monitor this threat as the
precipitation approaches the region.

The good news is that cell motions will be fast, so heavy
rainfall is not a particularly major threat. Nevertheless, model
qpf is certainly decent with the precipitation reaching the
area by daybreak, with widespread totals of 0.25-0.50 inches
generally along west of the fall line (with likely more to come
on Tuesday).

Regarding temperatures, do not see considerable drop-off from
daytime temps given overcast conditions. It is quite possible
forecast lows are too cool south of the boundary, especially in
delmarva (particularly given temperatures observed early this
morning).

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
By Tuesday morning, deep low pressure will be over the great
lakes and will continue to lift to the north and east throughout
the day. A strong cold front will lie across western ny and
western pa and will extend through the ohio valley, and that
front will move across the region Tuesday afternoon, and then
strong CAA develops behind the departing cold front Tuesday
night and Wednesday.

Strong WAA out ahead of the cold front will usher an
unseasonably warm and humid airmass into the region with highs
generally in the 50s and 60s, and surface dewpoints in the 50s
as well. Pwats will range from 1 to 1.3". Meanwhile, a 130 kt
jet streak will dig into the region, and then will strengthen a
llj from 55-65 kt to 65-75 kt across eastern nj and into
southern de. This allows for a period of elevated instability
with mu CAPE of up to 500 j kg. Will continue to carry isolated
thunder, and some of the stronger showers and possible
thunderstorms could mix down some of those stronger winds. Do
not think there will be full mixing of those winds to the
surface, but cannot rule out a marginally severe storm or two
Tuesday morning, especially over southern nj and the delmarva.

Locally heavy rain is possible as well, but given that 6 hour
flash flood guidance values are 1-2 inches over northern nj and
3-4 inches over southern nj, and storm total QPF Monday night
and Tuesday looks to be around 1 inch north and west of the fall
line, and between 1 2 and 3 4 inch south and east of the fall
line, not expecting flash flooding, but poor drainage flooding
is possible. Have to watch how rivers respond as well.

Showers taper off from west to east Tuesday afternoon.

Temperatures fall into the mid 20s in the poconos, and into the
low to mid 30s elsewhere. Behind the cold front Tuesday
afternoon, west to northwest winds increase to 10-20 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph. Think there will be a long enough period
between the end of the rain and onset of the sub-freezing
temperatures to where a flash freeze should not be much of an
issue, especially with the gusty winds Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

High pressure builds in from the north. With strong caa, and
with falling heights and thicknesses, highs on Wednesday will be
in the 20s in the poconos, and in the 30s and 40s for the rest
of the region.

Dry weather through the end of the week. The coldest day looks
to be Thursday with highs in the 30s. The high moves offshore on
Saturday, and return flow sets up and allows for strong WAA and
highs climbing up into the 40s and 50s.

The next low may impact the region Saturday night and Sunday,
and based on latest model guidance, precip should be rain.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight... Current thinking is that CIGS will
predominantly remainVFR the rest of the night, but vsbys may
lower to MVFR at rdg abe with patchy fog drizzle. Remaining
sites will likely continue to seeVFR. Winds nearly calm.

Overall confidence is average.

Monday... Any sub-vfr conditions should gradually becomeVFR
across the area by 15z. Winds light variable becoming
predominantly south or southeast during the afternoon south of
philly but perhaps more easterly or even northeasterly at
rdg abe ttn. Speeds should remain below 10 kts. Overall
confidence is below average.

Monday night... Conditions are expected to deteriorate to sub-
vfr during the late evening and overnight hours (possibly ifr or
worse after 06z), with showers moving in from the west
generally after 06z, perhaps reaching the philly terminals after
09z. A couple lightning strikes cannot be ruled out. Low-level
(southwesterly) wind shear is probable, with a strong jet stream
developing during the evening and continuing through most of
the night. Meanwhile, surface winds will likely be between
southeast and southwest around or below 10 kts. Overall
confidence is somewhat below average.

Outlook...

Tuesday... Ifr or lower in rain and isolated tsra. Locally heavy
rain possible. Gusty winds possible in heavier showers and
isolated tsra. Showers taper off from west to east Tuesday
afternoon as cold front moves through the region. South winds
15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt Tuesday morning become w-nw in
the afternoon.VFR conditions likely in the afternoon. Llws
issues possible. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night...VFR. West winds 10-15 kt. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday through Friday...VFR conditions expected. West to nw
winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt during the day Wednesday
and Thursday. Light and variable winds Friday. High confidence.

Marine
Sub-advisory conditions are expected today across the waters.

However, there may be some patchy fog drizzle off the
northern central nj coast, with occasional localized visibility
restrictions.

Tonight, south winds should begin to increase, especially after
midnight, with speeds reaching small-craft advisory criteria a
couple of hours before daybreak. No changes to the current
marine headlines were made, with more discussion in the
"outlook" section below. A chance for showers increases by
daybreak Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday... Gale watch remains up on the ocean waters Tuesday
morning and afternoon, but confidence is low that widespread
gales will develop. Although there will be a strong llj, there
will be an inversion over the ocean that should inhibit those
winds from mixing down. The exception will be in heavier showers
and isolated thunderstorms. Marine weather statements and
possibly a special marine warning may be needed for these
locally stronger winds. Otherwise, small craft advisory
conditions will be in place for the ocean. SCA conditions
expected for de bay Tuesday. South winds in the morning abruptly
shift to the w-nw in the afternoon behind the passage of a cold
front.

Tuesday night through Thursday... SCA conditions likely on at
least the ocean waters during this time.

Friday... Winds and seas are expected to stay below sca
criteria.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
anz450>455.

Small craft advisory from 4 am to 6 pm est Tuesday for anz430-
431.

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Cms
short term... Cms
long term... Mps
aviation... Cms mps
marine... Cms mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 9 mi53 min E 4.1 G 5.1 38°F 32°F1020 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 21 mi53 min 39°F 33°F1020.1 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 23 mi53 min Calm G 1 39°F 30°F1020.5 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 23 mi113 min SSW 5.1 50°F 1020 hPa41°F
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 28 mi53 min SW 15 G 16 49°F 1020.6 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 31 mi53 min 40°F 34°F1020 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 32 mi53 min Calm G 2.9 38°F 33°F1020.7 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 32 mi53 min SW 5.1 G 8 49°F 34°F1020.3 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 39 mi53 min 42°F 33°F1020 hPa
BDSP1 42 mi53 min 41°F 35°F1020.1 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 42 mi53 min WSW 8 G 15 54°F 34°F1020.3 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 42 mi53 min E 1.9 40°F 1020 hPa35°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 44 mi53 min 40°F 36°F1021.1 hPa

Wind History for Ship John Shoal, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ9 mi29 minN 010.00 miOvercast44°F39°F85%1020.4 hPa
Dover Air Force Base, DE21 mi27 minSSW 710.00 miOvercast51°F43°F75%1020.6 hPa

Wind History from MIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3N7NW7W5NW4S4SW4CalmS3CalmSE3CalmCalmS33Calm3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmSW3SW5SW8W9W11W13W12W16
G24
W11W10W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmSE4W4CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSW3W4W8W8W11
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W7SW3SW4CalmS3CalmCalmSW5SW4SW4SW3W4W3

Tide / Current Tables for Tindalls Wharf, Cohansey River, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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Tindalls Wharf
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Mon -- 03:00 AM EST     5.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:17 PM EST     5.81 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:16 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:40 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.24.45.15.34.93.72.10.80.100.41.434.55.45.85.64.631.40.4-00.10.7

Tide / Current Tables for Newport Landing, Nantuxent Creek, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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Newport Landing
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:56 AM EST     3.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:15 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:13 PM EST     3.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:50 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:40 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.93.53.63.42.61.70.80.200.10.61.72.93.73.93.83.22.21.20.50.1-00.21.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.