Saturday, August18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Edgewood, MD

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Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 7:57PM Saturday August 18, 2018 12:32 PM EDT (16:32 UTC) Moonrise 1:09PMMoonset 11:37PM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1103 Am Edt Sat Aug 18 2018
Rest of today..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers and tstms late this morning, then scattered showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Scattered showers and tstms. Patchy fog.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers through the day. A chance of tstms through the night. Showers likely through the night.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1103 Am Edt Sat Aug 18 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will approach from the northwest and slowly cross the waters today into Sunday. High pressure will build to the north on Monday before a warm front lifts northward through the waters on Tuesday. A cold front will sweep to the east by Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Edgewood, MD
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location: 39.39, -76.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 181525
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1125 am edt Sat aug 18 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will slowly approach from the northwest today,
then gradually cross the region tonight into Sunday. High
pressure will build to the northeast Monday before low pressure
passes northwest of the area toward the middle of next week.

Near term through tonight
Surface cold front has finally pushed southeast into
northwestern pa late this morning. It will slowly slide
southeast today. There will also be a surface trough near
southeastern portions of the cwa. In between these features,
there may actually be a minima of convective development. A
shortwave trough may help organize convection to our south, and
if anything, any stronger storms may be in this vicinity, where
shear will be slightly higher (but still less than 30 kt). With
lower instability and shear and poor mid level lapse rates,
severe weather is a lower threat overall. There could be a heavy
rain threat along the cold front late this afternoon and
evening with precipitable water AOA 2 inches, a deep warm cloud
layer, and possible training. Based on cams, this threat may be
a touch higher along the pa border (perhaps aided by a weak wave
of low pressure), but do not see a strong enough signal to
issue a flash flood watch at this time. Abundant cloud cover
will keep highs in the mid to upper 80s in most locations.

While the cold front will be progressing south through the area
tonight, instability will be weak enough that most of the
convection should show a decreasing trend through the evening,
with an exception perhaps across southern maryland. Lows will be
in the mid 60s to lower 70s, with patch fog possible.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
While the surface boundary should make it most if not all of
the way through the area by Sunday, the frontal zone will remain
nearby, and thus some instability could linger, especially in
southern portions of the cwa. This area will have the highest
chances of showers and storms, although there is some model
spread on the areal coverage. Some drier air works in by Sunday
night as high pressure builds over new england, so shower
chances should decrease. Light upslope flow could cause a shower
over the mountains though. Highs will back off into the lower
to mid 80s with lows in the 60s.

The high to the northeast will wedge into the area on Monday,
likely leading to a drier day. It's possible there could be some
low clouds around to start the day with improving conditions by
afternoon. Can't totally rule out some precipitation,
especially in southern areas, since the frontal zone will be
just south of the area. The front will buckle back north on
Monday night, with warm moist advection beginning from the
southwest. Shower chances will increase in the mountains. Highs
will remain in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the 60s.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Amplifying upper trough with attendant occluding surface low
will pass northwest of the mid-atlantic Tuesday, sending a cold
front through the area. The approaching trough will act to
increase mid upper flow, and this coupled with increasing low-
level moisture on southerly flow will result in a sheared and
unstable airmass. Severe weather seems quite plausible in this
scenario if the pattern holds. Increasing the threat would be
potential increased low-level shear in the vicinity of a warm
front that will be developing over the area. Questions remain
this far out on details such as timing and cloud cover actual
realized instability as well as storm mode.

Strong high pressure will build into the area during the second
half of the week behind the front leading to an early taste of
fall-like weather over the region.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
While at present, weather is pretty quietVFR, we will see
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening, although many of the terminals may be in a "dry
slot" between the approaching front from the northwest and a
trough to the southeast. Mrb- bwi mtn will have the highest
chance of thunderstorms, potentially with heavy rain.

The front will push south on Sunday, with the highest chances
for any additional showers and storms on Sunday and Monday being
near cho (but far from a certainty). The main aviation concern
will be low cloud formation Sunday and Monday nights as marine
air advects in on northeast winds.

Sub-vfr likely in any shra tsra tue. S flow 10 kts. MainlyVFR
wed with winds becoming nw.

Marine
Winds have dropped below SCA criteria and have allowed advisory
to expire. The cold front well to our northwest will slowly
cross the region today into Sunday, bringing the potential for
scattered t-storms will again be possible each day. There may be
a brief window for SCA conditions this evening near the front,
but think the probability is low.

High pressure will build over new england on Monday. There
could be another period sometime Sunday night into Monday where
east northeast winds could near SCA criteria, but the
probability is low at this time.

Sca conditions are possible ahead of an approaching cold front
Tuesday, and behind said front Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night, which may
result in locally gusty winds.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ads
near term... Ads rcm
short term... Ads
long term... Dhof
aviation... Ads dhof rcm
marine... Ads dhof rcm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 12 mi32 min WSW 6 G 8 81°F 84°F1012.4 hPa (-0.9)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 18 mi32 min W 9.9 G 13 83°F 1011.8 hPa
FSNM2 18 mi32 min W 9.9 G 13 83°F 1011.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 19 mi32 min WNW 5.1 G 11 85°F 85°F1011.5 hPa (-1.0)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 26 mi38 min WSW 5.1 G 9.9 83°F 84°F1011.8 hPa
CPVM2 28 mi32 min 82°F 74°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 30 mi38 min 87°F 1011.8 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 31 mi32 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 83°F 83°F1012.6 hPa (-0.8)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 35 mi32 min SW 7 G 8 82°F 83°F1013.2 hPa (-0.9)72°F
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 38 mi32 min 84°F 83°F1010.7 hPa (-1.0)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 38 mi32 min WSW 5.1 G 8.9 84°F 78°F1011.4 hPa (-1.0)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 47 mi32 min W 11 G 13 82°F 83°F1011.3 hPa (-0.8)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 48 mi122 min SW 1.9 76°F 1013 hPa71°F
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 48 mi122 min SW 4.1 84°F 1012 hPa73°F

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD9 mi47 minSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F77°F75%1012.5 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD20 mi38 minno data mi88°F71°F57%1011.9 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------CalmCalmCalmSW3S3S5S6S8S9S11S9S11
G17
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1 day ago------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalm3S5SW7S8SW5CalmCalm
2 days ago------------------W4W4SW3W544NW6W8------W8W6W3SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Pond Point, Bush River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Pond Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:57 AM EDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Sat -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:40 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:42 PM EDT     1.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:43 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.61.91.91.81.61.41.10.80.70.70.811.21.41.41.31.10.80.50.40.30.40.7

Tide / Current Tables for Battery Point, Gunpowder River, Maryland
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Battery Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:09 AM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Sat -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:19 AM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:55 PM EDT     1.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.921.91.81.61.31.10.90.80.811.21.41.51.41.20.90.70.50.40.40.60.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.