Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Joppae, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 4:52PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 6:41 PM EST (23:41 UTC) Moonrise 12:35PMMoonset 10:52PM Illumination 44% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 637 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am est Thursday through late Thursday night...
Tonight..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain with a slight chance of freezing rain or snow or sleet after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 ft. Rain or sleet or snow and freezing rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt...becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt late. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of rain or snow.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 637 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build over new england through tonight as low pressure develops over the tennessee valley. Another area of low pressure will develop along the carolina coast Thursday, strengthen into a gale, then move towards long island Thursday night as the high pressure center moves offshore. Another area of high pressure will build in from the ohio valley for the weekend. Gale warnings may be required Friday, and small craft advisories may be needed through early Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Joppae, MD
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location: 39.39, -76.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 142050
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
350 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build over new england through tonight as an
area of low pressure develops over the tennessee valley. This
area of low pressure will lift northward along the east coast
Thursday into Friday while the high pressure center moves
offshore. Another area of high pressure will build in from the
ohio valley over the weekend. A cold front will likely approach
from the great lakes early next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Latest surface analysis depicts a stalled front along the
southeast coast and high pressure extending from the great lakes
to texas. An area of low pressure is beginning to form in along
the front in northern alabama ahead of a cutoff upper level low.

For the remainder of the afternoon and evening, dense cirrus
will continue to stream over the area.

Winter headlines will go into effect late tonight for an early
season wintry mix. Moisture will begin streaming northward
ahead of the low late tonight. There's some indication the
thickening cloud cover may attempt to hold temperatures above
freezing, especially in many areas east of the blue ridge.

However, surface dew points will remain in the lower to mid 20s,
so the column should cool as precipitation starts. Have favored
href and NAM surface temperatures (which should handle low
levels better), which result in AOB freezing temperatures near
and west of i-95 by dawn. There are still a range of thermal
profile possibilities aloft amongst guidance, so confidence is
fairly low on precip type and duration of each type. The
farther north in latitude across the cwa, there is a better
chance for a period of wet snow at the onset. Some areas could
see a quick coating of several inches if the colder solutions
are correct, while the warmer models suggest little snow will
fall anywhere in the forecast area. Even in areas above
freezing, some sleet could mix in with the rain. Have upgraded
the watch to a warning, with an advisory east to i-95, including
the washington metro area. While accumulations will likely be
minimal immediately near i-95, we wanted to highlight the threat
for potential issues during the morning commute. Projected road
temperatures are near the freezing mark outside of the urban
core.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Friday night
A second low will develop over north carolina on Thursday and
strengthen through the day as it moves northeast under a coupled
upper level jet. Meanwhile, an upper low will push northeast
toward us from the south-central us. High pressure over new
england will keep damming of cold air going over the western
portions of the forecast area, while some cold air erosion looks
likely east of the blue ridge by afternoon. Thus, have
sleet rain along and east of i-95 transitioning to plain rain
through the day, with snow sleet freezing rain between the blue
ridge and i-95 changing to sleet freezing rain and then rain
very late. From the blue ridge west, cold air likely gets stuck,
so am keeping temps at or below freezing all day with
snow sleet freezing rain transitioning mainly to sleet freezing
rain. Potential for significant snow and ice exists given the
favorable synoptic set-up for cold air and heavy precipitation.

Caveats to this solution include prolonged periods of sleet, the
fact that heavy freezing rain is less efficient at accreting,
and that much of the precipitation will fall while there is
solar insolation. However, within the warned area, it is
important to note that hazardous wintry precipitation will be
falling most of the day and into the evening with temperatures
near or below freezing. Given the antecedent warm conditions,
accumulations will likely be greater on grassy and elevated
surfaces, as well as any areas which are typically shaded.

Even where precip is mainly rain, the hazard of heavy rain and
potential flooding will exist. See the hydro section below for
more details.

The surface low quickly lifts northeast Thursday evening, with a
mid-level dry slot working in around the low to our west.

Therefore precipitation will likely turn to light rain drizzle,
(freezing drizzle where surface temperatures remain AOB 32).

Later in the evening and overnight, wraparound moisture
associated with the passing upper low will bring a final shot of
precipitation, which would initially be rain freezing rain, but
could end as a period of snow. Any accumulating snow is most
likely over the mountains. Temps will likely be fairly steady
Thursday night.

Friday into Friday night, the system heads further away and we
have a comparatively mild westerly flow settling across the
region. Temps will actually be noticeably milder on Friday after
the clouds break, with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Lows
return near or below freezing Friday night with high pressure in
control.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
The long term period will start out with a weak ridge of high
pressure at the surface and zonal flow aloft. This will lead to
mostly sunny skies on Saturday, with temperatures maxing out in the
upper 40s to near 50. Cloudier, but still dry conditions are
forecast for Sunday, with temperatures once again reaching into the
upper 40s to around 50.

A cold front will progress through the area on Monday as a
vigorous shortwave trough traverses the great lakes region.

With the main forcing for ascent associated with the trough
displaced well to our north and limited moisture ahead of the
cold front, any precipitation is expected to be light and mainly
confined to upslope favored areas to the west of the blue
ridge. High pressure will move back in for Tuesday, resulting in
quiet weather conditions and below normal temperatures with
highs in the 40s.

Aviation 20z Wednesday through Monday
Vfr is expected through this evening, with mainly high clouds
and northwest winds around 10 kt. Clouds will lower as
precipitation arrives late tonight mainly rain expected at dca
(though there could be a brief period of sleet and snow), with
more of a mix of rain ice snow at the other terminals. Mrb is
likely to be the snowiest and iciest, though temperatures could
persist very close to freezing at cho, bwi, and iad into the
midday to afternoon hours. CIGS and vis also likely to be
significantly restricted on Thursday (ifr to lifr), even where
it is just plain rain. Low level wind is possible, although the
surface gradient may preclude it from reaching criteria.

Conditions improve later Friday night withVFR returning Friday
as the system pulls away. Conditions continueVFR Friday night.

Vfr conditions are expected through the weekend into early next
week.

Marine
High pressure sliding to the northwest has allowed winds to
start decreasing, although there will be an increase tonight and
low pressure approaches from the southwest. Therefore, a small
craft advisory remains in effect for the middle bay and lower
potomac. Winds shift more northeasterly Thursday and increase
potentially to 35 knots, with gales now up for the central bay.

As the low passes overhead Thursday evening, there will likely
be a lull in the winds, but they will increase again as the low
pulls away, so have left the headlines in effect. A gale warning
could potentially be needed for all waters by Friday morning.

Rain and fog, perhaps also some sleet, are hazards Thursday as
well, though the weather will clear on Friday. Winds will
gradually subside by Friday night as high pressure moves in.

Sca level winds may be possible very early Saturday morning before
winds relax as high pressure moves overhead.

Hydrology
A plume of 1.5+ inch pws will be advecting toward the mid-
atlantic Thursday on an anomalously strong 850 hpa easterly jet.

Though pws likely stay around 1-1.25 directly overhead, the
very strong low- level moisture advection coupled with strong
mid and upper jet dynamics will result in widespread moderate to
heavy precipitation. In the i-95 corridor where precipitation
is expected to fall as mainly liquid (and where 6-hr FFG is less
than 1.5 inches), some isolated minor areal flooding instances
could arise. Generally 1-2" QPF seems likely, but will be spread
out over a long duration. Latest mmefs nwm forecasts have
trended downward for streams and rivers, but some poor drainage
flooding is certainly possible, especially where leaves are
blocking storm drains.

Tides coastal flooding
Increasing onshore flow tonight into Thursday ahead of an
approaching coastal low will cause tidal anomalies to increase.

Although tides will be near astronomical minimums, minor
flooding is still possible for at least some areas along the
tidal potomac river and western shore of the chesapeake bay.

Climate
Here are the current rankings for wettest year on record
(through november 13th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 61.33 inches (1889)
2. 60.83 inches (2003)
3. 60.09 inches (1878)
4. 58.17 inches (1886)
5. 57.54 inches (1948)
6. 57.38 inches (2018)
7. 54.29 inches (1937)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 62.66 inches (2003)
2. 62.35 inches (1889)
3. 61.68 inches (2018)
4. 58.98 inches (1979)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 59.05 inches (1972)
3. 58.09 inches (1996)
4. 57.65 inches (2018)
5. 55.43 inches (1979)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Winter weather advisory from 4 am to 1 pm est Thursday for
dcz001.

Md... Winter storm warning from 4 am Thursday to 4 am est Friday for
mdz003-501-502.

Winter weather advisory from 4 am to 1 pm est Thursday for
mdz013-014-504.

Winter weather advisory from 4 am to 4 pm est Thursday for
mdz503.

Winter weather advisory from 7 am to 4 pm est Thursday for
mdz004>006-011-505>508.

Va... Winter storm warning from 1 am Thursday to 1 am est Friday for
vaz025-503-504-508.

Winter storm warning from 4 am Thursday to 4 am est Friday for
vaz026>031-507.

Winter weather advisory from 1 am to noon est Thursday for
vaz036>038-050-056.

Winter weather advisory from 4 am to 1 pm est Thursday for
vaz039-051>055-502.

Winter weather advisory from 4 am to 4 pm est Thursday for
vaz040-501-505-506.

Wv... Winter storm warning from 4 am Thursday to 4 am est Friday for
wvz050>053-055-501>506.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for anz532-
539-540-542.

Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to noon est
Thursday for anz532-540-542.

Gale warning from noon Thursday to 6 am est Friday for
anz532>534-537-540>543.

Small craft advisory from noon Thursday to 6 am est Friday for
anz535-536.

Small craft advisory until noon est Thursday for anz533-534-
537-541-543.

Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 6 am est Friday
for anz539.

Small craft advisory from 6 am Thursday to 6 am est Friday for
anz530-531-538.

Synopsis... Ads
near term... Ads
short term... Ads
long term... Kjp
aviation... Ads kjp
marine... Ads kjp
hydrology... Lwx
tides coastal flooding... Dhof mm
climate... Dhof


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 14 mi41 min NE 6 G 8 42°F 56°F1032 hPa (+0.5)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 14 mi41 min NNE 5.1 G 14 41°F 49°F1033.1 hPa (+1.1)
FSNM2 15 mi41 min NNE 8 G 8.9 41°F 1031.7 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 15 mi41 min NNE 7 G 8 42°F 1032.4 hPa (+0.5)
CPVM2 27 mi41 min 43°F 24°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 29 mi41 min 42°F 1031.9 hPa (+0.5)
44063 - Annapolis 29 mi35 min N 5.8 G 7.8 42°F 51°F1032.7 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 31 mi41 min N 2.9 G 5.1 40°F 48°F1033 hPa (+1.2)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 34 mi41 min N 8.9 G 11 42°F 51°F1033.1 hPa (+0.7)21°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 43 mi41 min N 11 G 13 41°F 45°F1032.6 hPa (+1.2)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 46 mi131 min N 1.9 41°F 1033 hPa23°F

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD5 mi56 minN 310.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F24°F53%1033.2 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD11 mi1.9 hrsNNW 57.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F19°F45%1033.2 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD15 mi47 minno data mi43°F18°F37%1032.3 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD21 mi47 minVar 310.00 miOvercast41°F19°F43%1032.3 hPa

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W7W6W9W6W5W15
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1 day agoE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNE3N3CalmN4CalmW8NW7--NW7W14W8S10
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2 days agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5E5SE4SE3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Battery Point, Gunpowder River, Maryland
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Battery Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:28 AM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:15 PM EST     1.01 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:03 PM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:52 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.51.41.10.90.70.60.50.50.60.70.9110.90.70.50.30.30.30.50.711.3

Tide / Current Tables for Bowley Bar, Middle River, Maryland
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Bowley Bar
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:01 AM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:02 PM EST     1.01 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:36 PM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:53 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.51.31.10.80.60.50.40.50.60.81110.80.60.40.30.30.40.60.81.11.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.