Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Martinsville, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 8:39PM Thursday August 17, 2017 1:35 PM EDT (17:35 UTC) Moonrise 1:34AMMoonset 4:19PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Martinsville, IN
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location: 39.39, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Indianapolis, IN
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Fxus63 kind 171703
afdind
area forecast discussion
national weather service indianapolis in
102 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017

Update
The aviation section has been updated below.

Synopsis
Issued at 207 am edt Thu aug 17 2017
low pressure over the upper midwest will provide a warm and humid
southwest flow of air to central indiana today. This will result
in chances for showers and thunderstorms today. A cold front
associated with the low will pass through indiana tonight ending
the rain chances.

Weak high pressure over the central plains is expected to pass
across indiana on Friday and and Friday evening... Providing dry
weather.

A quick moving upper level weather disturbance is them expected
to sweep across the region overnight on Friday and early on
Saturday. This will result in another chance for showers and
storms.

The weekend will conclude and the next work week will start with
dry weather as large high pressure builds across the region.

Near term today
Issued at 207 am edt Thu aug 17 2017
surface analysis early this morning shows low pressure in place
over minnesota with a trailing cold front stretching southwest
across iowa to western missouri. Goes16 shows SW flow ahead of
this system streaming in to the ohio valley along with strong
convection across oklahoma. National radar mosaics show more
showers over southern missouri and a few isolated showers storms
within the SW flow across illinois and SRN indiana.

Models remain in pretty good agreement today... Keeping indiana
within the warm and moist SW flow. Dew points across the area
remained in the very moist lower 70s. GFS 310k isentropic surface
shows central indiana within an favorable lift area today with
specific humidities over 9 j kg. Time height sections show a
saturated column amid lift... And forecast soundings show deep
saturation through the morning hours... Suggesting rain with some
drying within the column by afternoon. Furthermore... .Forecast
soundings suggest some instability should convective temperatures
in the middle 80s be reached. By afternoon... CAPE soars to a
healthy 2800 j kg. Thus if it fails to rain this morning... Heating
and instability should lead to rain this afternoon. Hrrr seems to
be taking the approach of pushing the more organized showers north
of the forecast area this morning and developing convection in
the afternoon.

Given all the favorable scenarios for rain will trend pops at or
above the forecast builder blend through the day. Confidence is
low for specific timing location. Will stick close to the forecast
builder blend on highs.

Short term tonight through Saturday night
Issued at 207 am edt Thu aug 17 2017
gfs and NAM show the best forcing... Dynamics and moisture are
lost quickly this evening. The 310k GFS shows drying arriving
within subsidence by 03z. Forecast soundings also show rapid
drying and stabilization within the column after 00z. Best
forcing associated with the upper through to the north looks to
pivot to the east as a weak trough axis moves across indiana. Thus
will keep some low pops prior to 03z... Particularly across the
eastern parts of the forecast area due to proximity. However... The
overall trend will be toward a dry forecast overnight. Will stick
close to the blend on lows.

Gfs and NAM suggest high pressure and a dry column across the
area on Friday. Forecast soundings show a mid level inversion with
attainable convective temperatures that should lead to some flat-
topped afternoon cu. Thus partly cloudy with a blend on temps
will work fine.

The high will maintain control of the weather on Friday
evening... However both the GFS and NAM again suggest a secondary
upper wave pushing toward central indiana after 06z
Saturday... Before exiting by Saturday afternoon. Lower levels
respond by showing a weak surface trough passing across the area
sate wit this feature. Forecast soundings also show a quick surge
of a saturated column. Thus we will need to continue to include
pops for late Friday night and early Saturday. Will trend toward
wetbulbs on Friday night.

By Saturday afternoon the models allow the short wave to quickly
exit as stronger ridging and high pressure build across the area.

Thus will trend toward a dry forecast for Saturday afternoon and
Saturday night.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
Issued at 358 am edt Thu aug 17 2017
long term period looks dry save for the late Monday night through
early Wednesday time frame, when a low pressure system will move
through the great lakes. This will necessitate some chance pops
for showers and storms during that time period, with the highest
chances Tuesday into Tuesday night. Bumped some likelies down to
high chance given model fluctuations in the longer term, but
otherwise left blended initialization alone.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable. Should start on the
warmer side then see temperatures cool somewhat as the week wears
on and high pressure builds in behind the frontal system.

Aviation (discussion for the 171800z TAF issuance)
Issued at 102 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017
vfr conditions expected for most of the period. Lower conditions
possible in convection this afternoon.

Main lines of convection has passed the TAF sites, but additional
convection may develop this afternoon with cold front still to the
west. Based on latest hi res model data, have only put vcts in at
kbmg, with just vcsh at most other sites. However, can't rule out
thunder at any site during the afternoon.

Some MVFR ceilings may work into mainly the northern sites this
afternoon based on upstream conditions, but at the moment confidence
is not high enough to put in the taf.

Winds will be gusty this afternoon. Tonight Friday drier air will
work in and keep conditionsVFR.

Ind watches warnings advisories None.

Synopsis... Puma
near term... Puma
short term... Puma
long term... Nield
aviation... 50


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bloomington, Monroe County Airport, IN18 mi43 minW 710.00 miOvercast78°F71°F79%1011.6 hPa

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Last 24hrSE10S8S65S9SW9S8S4S4S3S4S6S5S5S4S6S6S5S9S10SW8S12
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1 day ago5SW5SW5W6S4W6NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SE5SE7S7
2 days ago--S6SW5S8S10S6SW8W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm44NW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Indianapolis, IN (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Indianapolis, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.