Sunday, September23, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Martinsville, IN

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 7:42PM Sunday September 23, 2018 10:43 PM EDT (02:43 UTC) Moonrise 6:22PMMoonset 4:56AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Martinsville, IN
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location: 39.39, -86.48     debug

Area Discussion for - Indianapolis, IN
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Fxus63 kind 240218
area forecast discussion
national weather service indianapolis in
1018 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018

The aviation section has been updated below.

Issued at 238 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018
high pressure over the eastern great lakes will exit farther east
tonight... Keeping dry weather across central indiana this
evening. Overnight a warm front will approach central indiana from
the tennessee river valley along with an upper level weather
disturbance. This will bring rain showers to central indiana
tonight and again on Monday.

Wet weather looks in store for the first part of the work week as
several upper level weather disturbances are expected to push
across central indiana... Resulting in rain showers.

The rain chances will end on Wednesday as a cold front crosses and
exits the area. Dry and seasonable weather is then expected as
the work week ends.

Near term tonight
Issued at 846 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018
short term model data suggest fringes of stronger lift from system
over the tennessee valley will begin moving into the southern
zones after about 240500z. As a result, should start to see the
shower threat increase from the south after that time.

Current forecast reflects this thinking. Will increase sky cover
some for the rest of the evening hours, given amount of high cloud
cover over the area.

Previous discussion follows.

Dry and cool weather is expected this evening followed by
increasing clouds overnight leading to chances for rain.

Surface analysis early this afternoon suggests large... Unorganized
high pressure in place over ontario... The great lakes and
indiana... Illinois and missouri. Low pressure was found across
south dakota. Goes16 showed a plume of moisture streaming from
louisiana to tennessee and kentucky... Then northeast toward new
york city. Skies were sharply clear across much of the forecast
area on the north side of this plume. Light easterly surface flow
remained in place with dew points in the 50s.

Models continue to suggest the surface high will continue it s
progression to the east. A return of southerly surface flow on the
backside will allow the plume of moisture to the south to return
to central indiana overnight. The GFS and NAM suggest the arrival
of lower level saturation after 09z as displayed within the time
height sections and forecast soundings. GFS 305k isentropic
surface shows decent isentropic lift arriving overnight... With
specific humidities quite high near 10 g kg. With ample forcing
expected to arrive aloft along with a poorly defined warm
front... Confidence for rain developing overnight is high. Thus
will keep dry forecast in place through the evening... But ramp up
toward categorical pops after midnight. Given the expected
increasing clouds and rain... Will trend overnight low at or above
the forecast builder blends.

Short term Monday through Wednesday
Issued at 238 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018
a wet period looks in store early in the work week... .Following by
thing drying out on Wednesday as a cold front passes.

The previously mentioned plume of moisture will be our main
weather feature the next couple of days. The GFS and NAM suggest several
embedded short wave are to push across the ohio valley on Monday
and a second wave arriving for Tuesday. Meanwhile a deeper upper
trough... Currently over the NW united states... Is expected to
progress eastward to the upper midwest by Tuesday. This upper
trough will again come into play on Tuesday along with the weaker
wave... Providing progressive SW flow aloft. Time height S continue
to suggest lower and middle level saturation through
Tuesday... Thus given this will continue to use pops at or above
the forecast builder. Given the expected clouds and rain... Will
trend highs cooler and lows warmer than the forecast builder

On Tuesday night and Wednesday... .A cold front associated with
the broad upper trough aloft will push across indiana. Again with
a warm and humid air mass in place on Tuesday night... And good
forcing provided by the cold front... Will trend toward pops at or
above the forecast builder on Tuesday night.

The GFS a suggests the front should be clear of central indiana by
12z Wednesday... Allowing high pressure to build in its wake. For
now will continue with some slight chance pops in the am on
Wednesday should the progression of these systems change... But
overall a drying trend should continue as Wednesday
progresses... Eventually drying out by the end of the day. Due to
the large change in the air masses... Will stick close to the
blends on temps.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
Issued at 240 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday high pressure moving in
behind a cold front will bring drier and cooler air Wednesday night
through Saturday. The next chance of rain is on Sunday ahead of a possible
front. Currently the models are not in agreement on the timing of the
front and rain at this point so confidence is low. High temperatures
will mainly be in the low 70s and the low temps will be in the 50s
with a chance of upper 40s across our northern counties on Thursday
and Friday night. There will be a weak warming trend over the weekend
though as high temperatures climb back into the upper 70s and even
low 80s on Sunday.

Aviation discussion for the 240300z kind TAF update
Issued at 1017 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018
no significant changes made to the forecast at this time. Previous
discussion follows.

Ceilings 040-050 expected to gradually spread over the terminals
from the south during the course of the early parts of tonight.

Continued warm and moist advection, along with the approach of an
elevated front from the south, should allow for ceilings to
gradually fall overnight. Potential for ifr ceilings to develop
over the southern terminals during the pre dawn hours of Monday.

As the elevated front moves into the area late tonight, showers
may develop in the vicinity of the southern and central terminals
after about 240800z. Short term models suggest only small amounts
of elevated instability, so the threat for organized lightning
activity appears low at this time.

Surface winds 070-090 degrees at 5-8 kts this evening will
gradually veer to 100-120 degrees by daybreak Monday.

Ind watches warnings advisories

Synopsis... Puma
near term... Puma jas
short term... Puma
long term... .Kh
aviation... Jas

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bloomington, Monroe County Airport, IN18 mi50 minESE 410.00 miOvercast69°F63°F81%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from BMG (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNE4E6E6E5E7E5E3E3NE3NE4NE4E6NE6E8E4E10E9E7E5E7E6E6CalmE4
1 day agoN6
2 days agoCalmS6S6S10S10S8S7SW4S6S7S7SW10

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Indianapolis, IN (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Indianapolis, IN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.