Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Martinsville, IN
May 20, 2024 5:41 AM EDT (09:41 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:26 AM Sunset 8:58 PM Moonrise 5:22 PM Moonset 3:43 AM |
Area Discussion for - Indianapolis, IN
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FXUS63 KIND 200703 AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 303 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Some showers and thunderstorms possible in the northwest and north late today into tonight.
- An isolated strong to marginally severe storm cannot be ruled out northwest late today into this evening.
- Unseasonably warm through Tuesday...highs in the mid to upper 80s, with overnight lows as high as 70F Tuesday night
- 1-2 rounds of strong/severe t-storms possible Tuesday night through Wednesday evening...especially north/west of Indianapolis
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Early this morning, an upper level ridge remained across central Indiana. An old surface boundary was near the far northern forecast area, but all convection that had been associated with it had ended.
Convection was ongoing across Iowa and Missouri associated with an upper wave.
The aforementioned convection should move northeast in the upper flow overnight and into the daylight morning hours today. Central Indiana will see some high clouds from these through the first half of the day today.
Later today, another upper wave will move toward the area and then weaken as it moves in tonight. This, plus perhaps the tail of another upper wave that will move farther northwest of the area will bring some forcing. Instability will be present thanks to temperatures in the mid and upper 80s with dewpoints in the 60s.
Thus, will add some low PoPs to the northwest and far northern forecast area very late today (21Z or so) into tonight. Best shear and forcing will remain northwest of the area, but there is enough instability for some gusty winds and hail, especially in the far northwest.
Farther southeast in central Indiana, some CAMs do bring in storms tonight with the southern upper wave. However, instability will be on the wane, and forcing will be diminishing as the wave weakens.
Will keep the remainder of the area dry for now but will have to watch trends in the wave's behavior during the day today.
The clouds today will not be enough to significantly limit heating, so highs again will be in the upper 80s to perhaps 90 in a few areas. With no change in airmass, lows tonight will remain in the 60s.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Tuesday through Wednesday...
Unseasonable warmth approaching record highs for late May will be on display for a third and final day Tuesday as central Indiana continues to catch the western side of an amplified upper ridge extending from South Texas to Maine. Meanwhile the next weather system will be deepening over the Plains, with surface low pressure advancing from Kansas to the Twin Cities while dropping to 990 mb...
and perhaps a stray light shower along a weak warm-frontal type boundary during the day Tuesday. Larger focus will be subsequent risk of convection going into Tuesday night where showers/t-storms are expected to enter at least western/northern counties...and possibly continue into the Indy Metro later at night. This threat is conditional, with greater chances north/west and overall later at night. Appears damaging winds and large hail would be greatest threats, with coverage most likely around the Upper Wabash Valley.
Wednesday should see the slow west-to-east passage of the system's cold front while the deep surface low departs across Ontario.
Despite several convective ingredients, including 2000-2500 J/kg of CAPE and adequate lapse rates...latest guidance is showing less confidence in forcing aloft/lift as well as variable levels of vertical wind shear across the CWA Certainly afternoon to evening storms are on the table, likely in a linear orientation ahead of and then with the arriving front...although coverage of strong/severe cells could be limited by less lift. Convection may linger into overnight hours across eastern/southern zones with a slower frontal passage perhaps per lack of flow aloft. Mid-week temperatures will exhibit a downward trend from near-record warmth...with highs trending from upper to low 80s...and morning lows decreasing from around 70F to near 60F.
Thursday through Sunday,,,
Despite the cold front having passed the region...the corresponding frontal zone lingering just to our south, and the poor attempt of weak surface high pressure to advance any closer than the Great Lakes...at least slightly above normal temperatures will continue through the late week. Stronger short wave troughs will continue to be focused across southern Canada and the northwestern CONUS, leaving more of a quasi-disturbed zonal pattern of small, embedded vort maxs flowing from the central Plains through the Midwest.
Brief precipitable water minimums should occur around Thursday night before moderate humidity returns to central Indiana. Occasional, diurnally-enhanced, isolated/scattered showers can be expected, especially with the small wave expected to lift to the Ohio Valley around Friday...and then towards latter portions of the weekend when the next cold front arriving from the northwest promotes organized showers and at least isolated thunder. Temperatures should display a fairly slow/steady moderation with early-summer like readings increasing from the mid-upper 70s to low-mid 80s.
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Impacts:
- MVFR fog at KLAF overnight
Discussion:
With rain haven fallen earlier, fog has already developed at KLAF.
With just some passing high clouds and light winds, this fog should persist overnight. Cannot rule out below MVFR conditions at times, but not confident enough to add at this time.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with some mid and high clouds along with a few cumulus during the afternoon. Will watch how things develop today to see if convection has to be added to KLAF for late afternoon onward.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 303 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Some showers and thunderstorms possible in the northwest and north late today into tonight.
- An isolated strong to marginally severe storm cannot be ruled out northwest late today into this evening.
- Unseasonably warm through Tuesday...highs in the mid to upper 80s, with overnight lows as high as 70F Tuesday night
- 1-2 rounds of strong/severe t-storms possible Tuesday night through Wednesday evening...especially north/west of Indianapolis
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Early this morning, an upper level ridge remained across central Indiana. An old surface boundary was near the far northern forecast area, but all convection that had been associated with it had ended.
Convection was ongoing across Iowa and Missouri associated with an upper wave.
The aforementioned convection should move northeast in the upper flow overnight and into the daylight morning hours today. Central Indiana will see some high clouds from these through the first half of the day today.
Later today, another upper wave will move toward the area and then weaken as it moves in tonight. This, plus perhaps the tail of another upper wave that will move farther northwest of the area will bring some forcing. Instability will be present thanks to temperatures in the mid and upper 80s with dewpoints in the 60s.
Thus, will add some low PoPs to the northwest and far northern forecast area very late today (21Z or so) into tonight. Best shear and forcing will remain northwest of the area, but there is enough instability for some gusty winds and hail, especially in the far northwest.
Farther southeast in central Indiana, some CAMs do bring in storms tonight with the southern upper wave. However, instability will be on the wane, and forcing will be diminishing as the wave weakens.
Will keep the remainder of the area dry for now but will have to watch trends in the wave's behavior during the day today.
The clouds today will not be enough to significantly limit heating, so highs again will be in the upper 80s to perhaps 90 in a few areas. With no change in airmass, lows tonight will remain in the 60s.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Tuesday through Wednesday...
Unseasonable warmth approaching record highs for late May will be on display for a third and final day Tuesday as central Indiana continues to catch the western side of an amplified upper ridge extending from South Texas to Maine. Meanwhile the next weather system will be deepening over the Plains, with surface low pressure advancing from Kansas to the Twin Cities while dropping to 990 mb...
and perhaps a stray light shower along a weak warm-frontal type boundary during the day Tuesday. Larger focus will be subsequent risk of convection going into Tuesday night where showers/t-storms are expected to enter at least western/northern counties...and possibly continue into the Indy Metro later at night. This threat is conditional, with greater chances north/west and overall later at night. Appears damaging winds and large hail would be greatest threats, with coverage most likely around the Upper Wabash Valley.
Wednesday should see the slow west-to-east passage of the system's cold front while the deep surface low departs across Ontario.
Despite several convective ingredients, including 2000-2500 J/kg of CAPE and adequate lapse rates...latest guidance is showing less confidence in forcing aloft/lift as well as variable levels of vertical wind shear across the CWA Certainly afternoon to evening storms are on the table, likely in a linear orientation ahead of and then with the arriving front...although coverage of strong/severe cells could be limited by less lift. Convection may linger into overnight hours across eastern/southern zones with a slower frontal passage perhaps per lack of flow aloft. Mid-week temperatures will exhibit a downward trend from near-record warmth...with highs trending from upper to low 80s...and morning lows decreasing from around 70F to near 60F.
Thursday through Sunday,,,
Despite the cold front having passed the region...the corresponding frontal zone lingering just to our south, and the poor attempt of weak surface high pressure to advance any closer than the Great Lakes...at least slightly above normal temperatures will continue through the late week. Stronger short wave troughs will continue to be focused across southern Canada and the northwestern CONUS, leaving more of a quasi-disturbed zonal pattern of small, embedded vort maxs flowing from the central Plains through the Midwest.
Brief precipitable water minimums should occur around Thursday night before moderate humidity returns to central Indiana. Occasional, diurnally-enhanced, isolated/scattered showers can be expected, especially with the small wave expected to lift to the Ohio Valley around Friday...and then towards latter portions of the weekend when the next cold front arriving from the northwest promotes organized showers and at least isolated thunder. Temperatures should display a fairly slow/steady moderation with early-summer like readings increasing from the mid-upper 70s to low-mid 80s.
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Impacts:
- MVFR fog at KLAF overnight
Discussion:
With rain haven fallen earlier, fog has already developed at KLAF.
With just some passing high clouds and light winds, this fog should persist overnight. Cannot rule out below MVFR conditions at times, but not confident enough to add at this time.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with some mid and high clouds along with a few cumulus during the afternoon. Will watch how things develop today to see if convection has to be added to KLAF for late afternoon onward.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBMG MONROE COUNTY,IN | 18 sm | 48 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 63°F | 61°F | 94% | 29.95 | |
| KGPC PUTNAM COUNTY RGNL,IN | 24 sm | 26 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 63°F | 63°F | 100% | 29.96 |
Indianapolis, IN,
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