Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Townsend, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 6:23PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 9:40 PM EDT (01:40 UTC) Moonrise 1:15PMMoonset 11:10PM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 930 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A slight chance of showers late.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight, then 2 ft or less late.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft early in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 3 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 3 ft.
ANZ400 930 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will lose its influence over our weather tonight. A cold front approaching from the northwest is forecast to arrive on Wednesday afternoon. High pressure is expected to build across our region from the west on Thursday and Friday. Another cold front is anticipated on Saturday afternoon, followed by high pressure for Sunday and Monday. The next in the series of cold fronts is expected on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Townsend, DE
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location: 39.4, -75.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 170139
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
939 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will lose its influence over our weather tonight.

A cold front approaching from the northwest is forecast to
arrive on Wednesday afternoon. High pressure is expected to
build across our region from the west on Thursday and Friday.

Another cold front is anticipated on Saturday afternoon,
followed by high pressure for Sunday and Monday. The next in the
series of cold fronts is expected on Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
930 pm update: cooled low temps a couple degrees tonight based
on temperatures starting to tank in the susceptible spots.

Otherwise, no significant changes to note.

700 pm update: forecast is in good shape. Made some minor
adjustments to temperatures and dew points for tonight based on
latest trends.

Previous discussion...

dry weather conditions are expected to continue into this
evening with just some cirrus overhead associated with an upper
level jet.

An impulse traveling in the mid level flow was bringing some
rain to the tennessee river valley and vicinity this afternoon.

The feature is expected to progress east northeastward, passing
off the middle atlantic coast late tonight. The northern edge of
the area of rain is anticipated to brush across the middle
delmarva and far southern new jersey overnight. The remainder of
our forecast area should stay precipitation-free.

Low temperatures are expected to range from the upper 30s in
parts of the poconos, the lehigh valley and northern new jersey
to around 50 in southern delaware and in the adjacent counties
of eastern maryland. The wind should be light and variable.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
A mid level trough is forecast to move from the great lakes on
Wednesday morning to the northeastern states on Wednesday
afternoon and evening. A surface cold front associated with the
mid level feature is expected to pass through our region on
Wednesday afternoon. The system will lack any significant
moisture, so clouds will be limited and we will mention only a
slight chance of showers from the poconos into northern new
jersey.

A gusty west wind is anticipated to develop on Wednesday with
sustained speeds increasing to 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to
30 mph. High temperatures will likely be in the 50s up north and
in the lower and middle 60s in the rest of our forecast area.

The sky is expected to be mostly clear on Wednesday night.

Temperatures should drop into the 30s and lower 40s. The wind is
forecast to be from the northwest around 10 mph, precluding the
development of frost in areas that fall below the upper 30s.

Nevertheless, we could see some sub-freezing temperatures in the
elevated terrain of the pocono and far northern new jersey.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Thursday and Friday... The main influence through this period
will be a surface high slowly building east in combination with
a mid and upper level ridge propagating east as well. The
combination of these two factors will lead to dry weather, and a
warming trend. The warming trend will be especially noticeable
Friday into early Saturday as the surface high builds east of
our region, leading to low level southwesterly flow. Before the
warming trend gets started, we could see a round of frost
Thursday night for location northwest of the i-95 corridor.

Saturday... Cold front should arrive through the second half of
the day. Unlike with the Wednesday front, there should be plenty
of moisture advection ahead of this front, thanks in large part
to the southwesterly flow ahead of the front. For now have kept
the weather type as showers, but depending on the arrival time
of the front, especially if it arrives before sunset, we could
see some thunderstorms across the region.

Sunday through Tuesday... Dry and cool conditions are expected
through this period. Frost or even a hard freeze is possible
especially Sunday night into Monday morning.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR with light west or southwest winds. High
confidence.

Wednesday...VFR with winds becoming west-northwest and
increasing to 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to or even potentially
exceeding 30 kts. High confidence onVFR; moderate confidence
on winds.

Wednesday night...VFR. Northwest winds around 10 kts. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday through Friday...VFR conditions expected. Light wind
becoming southwesterly on Friday around 10 kt.

Saturday... MostlyVFR though temporary visibility and ceiling
restrictions are possible with showers. Winds starting
southwesterly, but an abrupt shift to northwesterly is expected
late in the day Saturday.

Saturday night and Sunday...VFR conditions expected. Northwest
wind 5 to 10 knots Saturday night increasing to 10 to 15 knots
on Sunday.

Marine
We are anticipating a westerly wind less than 15 knots into
this evening. Wind speeds are forecast to increase gradually
late tonight with gusts in excess of 25 knots expected to
develop on Wednesday morning. As a result, a small craft
advisory is in effect for Wednesday on our ocean waters and on
delaware bay. The trend toward higher wind speeds will continue
into Wednesday night, with gale force gusts likely at that time
on our ocean waters and on lower delaware bay. A gale warning
outlook...

Thursday... Northwesterly wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt are
expected.

Thursday night and Friday... No marine headlines are
anticipated.

Friday night and Saturday... Southwesterly wind gusts around 25
kt are possible with an abrupt shift to northwesterly late in
the day Saturday with gusts up to 30 kt possible.

Saturday night and Sunday... Northwesterly wind gusts of 25 to
30 kt are expected.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 11 am to 6 pm edt Wednesday for
anz431-452>455.

Gale warning from 6 pm Wednesday to 9 am edt Thursday for
anz452>455.

Small craft advisory from 8 am to 6 pm edt Wednesday for
anz450-451.

Gale warning from 6 pm Wednesday to 6 am edt Thursday for
anz431-450-451.

Small craft advisory from 11 am Wednesday to 6 pm edt Thursday
for anz430.

Synopsis... Iovino
near term... Cms iovino
short term... Iovino
long term... Johnson
aviation... Cms johnson
marine... Iovino johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 11 mi40 min 66°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 13 mi40 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 53°F 60°F1019.5 hPa (+0.3)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 14 mi40 min WSW 12 G 13 58°F 68°F1019.2 hPa (+0.0)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 14 mi40 min SSW 1 G 1 52°F 64°F1019.7 hPa (+0.3)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 23 mi130 min Calm 52°F 1020 hPa48°F
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 30 mi40 min 54°F 65°F1019.1 hPa (+0.0)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 36 mi40 min WSW 7 G 9.9 59°F 65°F1019.8 hPa (+0.0)
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 38 mi40 min WSW 13 G 15 60°F 1020 hPa (+0.0)
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 44 mi40 min 54°F 62°F1018.6 hPa (+0.0)
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 45 mi40 min WSW 9.9 G 11 59°F 67°F1019.1 hPa (+0.0)
BDSP1 49 mi40 min 55°F 62°F1019.2 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Delaware City, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE19 mi49 minW 410.00 miFair52°F42°F69%1019.8 hPa
Dover Air Force Base, DE19 mi1.7 hrsWSW 410.00 miFair54°F44°F69%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from ILG (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmSE3E3E4SE4CalmS8S5S8S10S8SW6S8S9SW7SW7SW7SW6SW6SW11SW7SW6SW4SW6
2 days agoCalmW5NW5NW5NW6NW5NW5CalmCalmN3CalmNW4CalmCalmSE35SW5SW7W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Taylors Bridge, Blackbird Creek, Delaware
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Taylors Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:35 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:09 AM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:34 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:27 PM EDT     3.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.50.81.41.92.32.62.82.621.30.80.50.50.81.42.12.52.93.132.61.91.3

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
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Tue -- 01:05 AM EDT     2.05 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:33 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:51 AM EDT     -1.36 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:41 AM EDT     0.05 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:08 PM EDT     1.71 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:23 PM EDT     -0.09 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:02 PM EDT     -2.03 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:57 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.821.91.50.8-0.7-1.2-1.4-1.1-0.70.411.51.71.50.9-1-1.6-1.9-2-1.9-1.6-1.10.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.