Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Townsend, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:10PM Friday January 19, 2018 6:17 PM EST (23:17 UTC) Moonrise 8:50AMMoonset 7:42PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 252 Pm Est Fri Jan 19 2018
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves around 3 ft. Rain, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 252 Pm Est Fri Jan 19 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Surface high pressure will remain across the southeast and adjacent western atlantic ocean this weekend before moving east next week. A surface low progressing across southeast canada this weekend may bring a slow-moving cold front into southern new england and the northern mid-atlantic on Sunday and Sunday night before retreating as a warm front on Monday. A cyclone in the central plains will race northeastward through the great lakes Monday night to the canadian maritimes on Tuesday, bringing a strong cold front through the region late Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure will build into the eastern united states for the rest of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Townsend, DE
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location: 39.4, -75.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 192005
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
305 pm est Fri jan 19 2018

Synopsis
Surface high pressure will remain across the southeast and adjacent
western atlantic ocean this weekend before moving east next week. A
surface low progressing across southeast canada this weekend may
bring a slow-moving cold front into southern new england and the
northern mid-atlantic on Sunday and Sunday night before retreating
as a warm front on Monday. A cyclone in the central plains will race
northeastward through the great lakes Monday night to the canadian
maritimes on Tuesday, bringing a strong cold front through the
region late Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure will build into
the eastern united states for the rest of the week.

Near term through tonight
Overnight, our area will be in between the large high pressure to
our south and the low progressing east across ontario and quebec.

The low will be far enough north that we don't expect any impacts
save for a few high clouds. Temperature wise, models have been
underestimating the valley radiation effects across the southern
poconos and NW nj the last two mornings. Therefore, undercut
guidance in these areas, with teens likely in the valleys.

Otherwise, expect mostly 20s across the region.

Short term Saturday
The small warming trend is expected to continue into tomorrow as the
low will move further away from the region, allowing 1000-500 mb
thicknesses to increase. Highs are expected to be about 10 degrees
above normal, ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
A strong storm system will move through the region early next
week, bringing a good chance for rain to much of the area.

Otherwise, the pattern will be relatively benign during the
long-term period.

There are indications that a surface low moving across southeast
canada this weekend will bring a slowing cold front into new
england and (perhaps) the northern mid-atlantic on Sunday. How
far south this progresses is somewhat in question, but I suspect
given the strength of the surface high encompassing the western
atlantic and southeastern u.S. That the front will struggle to
make much progress into our area. Nevertheless, there is some
potential for a high-temperature bust on Sunday should the front
progress farther south than forecast. Currently, highs on Sunday
are forecast to be about 10-15 degrees above seasonal averages,
though a little bit lower in the northern CWA to at least
account for the potential for the front to progress a little
farther south. Saturday night and Sunday should be dry.

Operational models have trended slower with the cyclone in the
central plains Sunday and Monday, and this means the earlier-
progged isentropic ascent along the developing baroclinic zone
in the northern mid-atlantic during this period would be
strongest farther west. Previous shift reduced pops Sunday night
and Monday to adjust for this trend, and I have continued this
trend with today's update. I also fine-tuned the precipitation
type forecasts based on somewhat increased confidence in hourly
temperatures during this period (though this should not be
assumed to be high confidence). The setup is favorable for
liquid precipitation, but temperatures will be close to or even
somewhat below freezing at times in the far northern cwa, so any
precipitation that falls in the southern poconos and adjacent
northwest new jersey may be freezing rain. Of course, given the
trends in the cyclone track to the west, the odds of
precipitation occurring are lower... Too low to introduce ice
accumulations into the grids at this time. We will continue to
monitor this potential as the event approaches.

The cyclone makes the move northeast into the great lakes and
southeast canada Monday afternoon through Tuesday, and a strong
cold front will sweep across the eastern half of the u.S. During
this period. Widespread frontal lift will be accompanied by
larger-scale ascent via warm advection and considerable
differential cyclonic vorticity advection downstream of a potent
midlevel trough. Models continue to generate widespread rain
near and ahead of the front, but the timing of the front still
has about a 6-12 hour difference between the faster GFS and
slower ecmwf. The cmc remains in the middle ground, but using it
as consensus is troubling because its QPF field makes little
sense in our area given the strong lift and moisture advection
preceding it. Here, the GFS and ECMWF are in stronger agreement
with widespread 0.50-1.00 inch totals in most of the cwa. As a
result, weighted the forecast toward an ECMWF gfs blend, which
includes the timing of the frontal passage. This continues to
favor the 06z-18z Tuesday time window for highest pops.

Temperatures should be warm enough for all rain during this
period.

Most models keep the area dry Tuesday night through Friday with
strong high pressure developing into the region. However, there
continue to be indications of at least one perturbation moving
through the zonal to northwest flow upstream of the trough, the
timing of which would be Wednesday into Wednesday night. This
system would be moisture-starved, but the lift may be strong
enough to generate a few snow showers in the southern poconos
and vicinity (though the ECMWF cmc GFS are not indicative of
this at the moment). No pops were included at the moment, and
given the surface high the gfs ECMWF depict late this week, have
the forecast dry through the whole period.

The origin of the surface high is western central canada, so the
near-average temperatures MOS is giving for this period may be
too conservative (i.E., too warm). Euro MOS trends are down, and
mex MOS is at least edging that way. Though I did not stray from
consensus too far this period, I have a suspicion the forecast
may end up being too warm Wednesday through Friday.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR conditions are expected with few high clouds. Light
(less than 10 kt) southwesterly winds through the night.

Tomorrow...VFR conditions with few, if any, clouds. Westerly winds
near or below 10 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday night and Sunday... PredominantlyVFR, though clouds
will be increasing Sunday, potentially to sub-vfr late (and
especially north of philly). Winds generally west or southwest
and light. Average confidence.

Sunday night and Monday... Periods of sub-vfr possible, with a
chance of rain primarily north of the mason-dixon line. Winds
predominantly south or southeast below 10 kts. Below average
confidence.

Monday night and Tuesday... Periods of sub-vfr likely with a good
chance of rain, especially from around midnight to noon. South
winds 5 to 15 kts (potentially gusty at the coast) becoming west
10 to 20 kts (potentially gusty everywhere) subsequent to a
frontal passage some time during this period. Slightly below
average confidence, particularly regarding timing of
cigs vsbys wind shift.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR with west to northwest winds
10 to 20 kts during the day and 5 to 15 kts at night. Some
potential for gusts Wednesday afternoon. High confidence.

Marine
For the delaware bay, delaware and far southern nj coastal waters:
winds and seas should stay below small craft advisory criteria
tonight and tomorrow, though gusts near or just above 20 kt are
possible Saturday morning.

For the northern and central nj coastal waters: winds will increase
late tonight, with gusts to 25 kt expected before sunrise Saturday
morning.

Outlook...

Saturday night and Sunday... Sub-advisory conditions and fair
weather expected.

Sunday night and Monday... Sub-advisory conditions, though there
is a slight chance of rain off the new jersey coast during this
period.

Monday night and Tuesday... Strong south winds and building seas
will likely generate at least advisory-level conditions, if not
marginal gales before frontal passage on Tuesday. Thereafter,
winds should become westerly and may again reach gale-force for
a time thereafter. A good chance of rain during this period,
with some visibility restrictions possible.

Tuesday night... Residual gale-force gusts possible with strong
northwest winds.

Wednesday... At least advisory-level conditions likely, though
the trend in winds and seas will be downward.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 am to 6 pm est Saturday for
anz450>452.

Synopsis... Cms
near term... Johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms johnson
marine... Cms johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 11 mi48 min 41°F 32°F1016.1 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 13 mi48 min S 1 G 2.9 43°F 30°F1016.5 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 14 mi48 min SW 8.9 G 8.9 43°F 31°F1016.7 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 14 mi48 min Calm G 1.9 42°F 32°F1016.8 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 23 mi108 min SW 1.9 47°F 1017 hPa16°F
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 30 mi48 min 41°F 36°F1016.1 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 36 mi48 min S 4.1 G 6 39°F 33°F1017.3 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 38 mi48 min S 12 G 13 41°F 1017.9 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 44 mi48 min 42°F 32°F1016 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 45 mi48 min S 7 G 8 37°F 33°F1017.2 hPa
BDSP1 49 mi48 min 41°F 37°F1016.2 hPa

Wind History for Delaware City, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE19 mi27 minSW 310.00 miFair42°F18°F38%1016.8 hPa
Dover Air Force Base, DE19 mi22 minS 510.00 miFair38°F22°F53%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from ILG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW4CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmSW4W4CalmCalmCalmW3CalmSW4W9W7W11W9
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1 day agoNW12NW11
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2 days agoSE5CalmN3NW4NW5N3NW4N8NW8NW7NW9NW6NW15NW10NW10NW11NW15NW16NW15NW14NW15NW13NW15NW10

Tide / Current Tables for Taylors Bridge, Blackbird Creek, Delaware River, Delaware
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Taylors Bridge
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Fri -- 02:05 AM EST     2.55 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:38 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:12 PM EST     2.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:42 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 08:21 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.12.42.52.31.70.90.30-0.10.20.91.72.42.82.92.82.21.40.80.3-000.51.2

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:05 AM EST     -1.55 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:41 AM EST     0.06 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:23 AM EST     1.84 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:37 AM EST     -0.09 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:10 PM EST     -2.17 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:08 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:40 PM EST     0.08 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:43 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:04 PM EST     2.13 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.8-1.3-1.5-1.4-0.90.61.11.51.81.81.2-0.9-1.6-2-2.2-2.1-1.7-10.71.41.92.121.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.