Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Townsend, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:24PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 12:02 PM EDT (16:02 UTC) Moonrise 6:24AMMoonset 7:12PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 1050 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Showers likely with isolated tstms late this morning and early afternoon...then showers likely late. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers in the evening. Patchy fog early in the evening. Patchy fog late in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm...decreasing to 1 nm or less late in the evening.
Wed..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft early in the morning...then 1 foot or less.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less...then 1 to 2 ft after midnight...then 1 foot or less late.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the evening...then 1 foot or less. Rain.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Rain in the morning...then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1050 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A warm front from south central new jersey through the delmarva will drift south today as low pressure in the ohio valley heads east...exiting seaward from the mid atlantic coast this evening. Large high pressure will build across the area Wednesday and then move east of the area by Friday morning. A low and its associated fronts will push across our region Friday and remain into Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Townsend, DE
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location: 39.4, -75.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 281321
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
921 am edt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
Weak low pressure will move across the middle atlantic region today
and then offshore tonight. Large high pressure will build across the
area Wednesday and then move east of the area by Friday morning. A
low and its associated fronts will push across our region Friday and
remain into Saturday. More high pressure will be over the area
Sunday and into Monday. Another disturbance may affect the area next
Tuesday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Cluster of showers and thunderstorms currently over central and
southern nj and over extreme SE pa (generally in/around philly),
and tracking to the northeast. Heavy rain, small hail, and
lightning with these storms, and the heaviest of the rain has
dropped a quick 3/4" QPF across parts of salem county before
departing. These storms moving into bucks, mercer, and monmouth
counties.

A secondary wave of showers and thunderstorms developing over
the DELMARVA and tracking to the northeast. So far, not nearly
as developed as the other storms in the cwa, but will monitor
their development. If they follow a similar track to previous
storms, then training could result in poor drainage flooding.

Otherwise, cloudy and murky with areas of fog giving way to
patchy fog this afternoon. Warm front lies right along the
nj/pa/de borders. South of the front, instability likely to
increase today, where best MLCAPE of less than 800j. Weak speed
shear so svr not expected. Pwat 1.25 so brief torrents of rain
possible in any shower.

Please follow later phi discussions and those of SPC regarding
svr potential.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday/
Any remaining showers end from west to east with a slightly
faster modeled end to the rain than 24 hours ago.

There could be some patchy fog, especially early at night in
the still moist boundary layer with a light north wind
increasing a bit late at night and trending northwest.

Fcst basis was a 50 50 blend of the 00z/28 gfs/nam mos.

Long term /Wednesday through Monday/
A rather steady progression of disturbances in the extended period
with a 2 day (or so) return period. Fair weather is expected for
much of Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure across canada ridges
southward across the area. Temperatures will be close to normal with
highs in the mid/upper 50s south and low/mid 50s north. Lows will be
in the mid/upper 30s north and low 40s south. It will be dry and
breezy Wednesday, but with wet ground conditions, fire weather
hazards will probably not be a big concern.

The first of two disturbances in the long term will affect much of
the area for much of Friday and Saturday. Low pressure will move up
the ohio valley Friday and then off the va tidewater area Saturday.

Our region will remain on the cooler nrly part of the system.

Occasional showers should occur much of the time. Depending on what
computer model, the rains could begin Thu night. Temperatures should
remain near or a little below normal thru the period. A couple
snowflakes across the highest elevations of the southern poconos are
possible.

Fair weather returns over the region for Sunday and persist into
Monday as high pressure to the north ridges across the area.

Temperatures will be a little above normal with upper 50s to low 60s
for highs in most areas. Another disturbance may approach for tue
with the latest ec model having a soaker system across the area and
the GFS much slower with the low and a fair weather day for tue. We
just have chc pops for now.

Aviation /13z Tuesday through Saturday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Variable conditions with general deterioration to ifr
conds in st/fog by 12z in the light northeast flow. The southerly
winds tafs of miv and acy could remainVFR much of the day except
lower in showers. Then considerable deterioration acy and miv
late today when the wind turns decidedly northeast.

Bands of showers and isolated tstms, some with brief heavy rain.

Light wind, mostly east or northeast at the TAF locations
except southeast to south at kmiv and kacy at least this
morning.

Tonight... MVFR/ifr conditions possible in showers and fog
early... BecomingVFR late. Light north winds will become north
to northwest overnight around 10 knots.

Outlook...

wed/thu...VFR expected. Gusty north winds wed.

Fri/sat... Lower cigs/vsbys expected. Showers.

Marine
Will cancel the dense fog advisory for nj coastal waters as
conditions on local web cams seem to be improving. Patchy fog
with vsbys down to 1 nm still possible through late morning.

Winds/seas will be under advisory criteria through tonight.

Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms through today, with
showers ending this evening.

Outlook...

wed... Sub-sca conditions.

Wed night/thu morning... Low end SCA near the nj coastal waters.

Thu afternoon thru fri... Sub-sca expected. Showers fri.

Fri night thru sat... SCA possible. Showers.

Equipment
Knel appears to be reading 10f too warm the past several days.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Drag/mps
short term... Drag
long term... O'hara
aviation... Drag/o'hara
marine... Drag/o'hara
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 11 mi44 min 51°F 45°F1012 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 13 mi44 min N 1.9 G 2.9 49°F 45°F1012.5 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 14 mi44 min NE 5.1 G 6 54°F 47°F1011.9 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 14 mi44 min 54°F 44°F1011.9 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 23 mi107 min SW 7 69°F 1012 hPa59°F
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 30 mi50 min 51°F 1011.8 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 36 mi44 min NNE 1 G 5.1 56°F 47°F1011 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 44 mi44 min 49°F 44°F1013.6 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 45 mi44 min E 2.9 G 4.1 59°F 45°F1011.6 hPa
BDSP1 49 mi44 min 49°F 1013.3 hPa

Wind History for Delaware City, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE19 mi71 minNNE 82.00 miThunderstorm Rain Fog/Mist51°F51°F100%1012.7 hPa
Dover Air Force Base, DE19 mi64 minSW 15 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F62°F83%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from ILG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6SW8SW7SW8SW5CalmCalmE4E5NE6E4NE7NE5NE7NE5NE6NE5NE7NE7N11NE13E9NE8E8
1 day agoE12E12NE9E10E10E11E11E11E11E9NE7NE8E8E9E6E7E7E5NE3CalmSE3N3CalmCalm
2 days agoSW7NW5SW5NW4NE9N9E5E16
G22
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G19
E11E13NE12E12NE10E13E13E11E12E11E11E10

Tide / Current Tables for Taylors Bridge, Blackbird Creek, Delaware River, Delaware
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Taylors Bridge
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Tue -- 01:33 AM EDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:35 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:57 PM EDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:56 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.93.23.22.61.810.4-0.1-0.10.31.122.73.13.22.92.21.30.60.1-0.10.20.91.8

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
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Tue -- 01:33 AM EDT     -2.11 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:46 AM EDT     0.08 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:10 AM EDT     2.26 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:00 AM EDT     -0.08 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     -2.05 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:14 PM EDT     0.08 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:30 PM EDT     2.11 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:02 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.7-2.1-2.1-1.8-1.20.61.422.32.11.50.1-1.4-1.9-2-1.9-1.4-0.61.11.72.12.11.60.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.