Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Townsend, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 8:35PM Friday June 23, 2017 6:11 AM EDT (10:11 UTC) Moonrise 4:17AMMoonset 7:04PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 541 Am Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from noon edt today through this evening...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft early this afternoon. Showers with a chance of tstms until late afternoon, then a slight chance of showers and tstms late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this morning and early afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 3 ft early in the evening, then 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Showers likely with a chance of tstms late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Showers with a chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers early in the evening.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Mon night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 541 Am Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure will track well north of our area today and Saturday. An associated cold front will cross our region during Saturday as some tropical moisture moves ahead of and along it. High pressure will then build well to our southwest Sunday into Monday. A weak cold front will move through our area later Monday. High pressure will then build across the mid atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday, before shifting offshore Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Townsend, DE
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location: 39.4, -75.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 230951
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
551 am edt Fri jun 23 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will track well north of our area Friday and Saturday.

An associated cold front will cross our region during Saturday as
some tropical moisture moves ahead of and along it. High pressure
will then build well to our southwest Sunday into Monday. A weak
cold front will move through our area later Monday. High pressure
will then build across the mid atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday,
before shifting offshore Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Showers with heavy rain developing from a spoke of mid-level
shortwave energy associated with the remnant low of cindy are
moving through the appalachians and into the mid-atlantic and
delmarva. These showers should enter northeast maryland,
southeast pa by the start of the morning commute, and then these
showers will spread north and east as the morning progresses.

These showers are moving into a humid and unstable airmass with
surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s and ml mucape
values around 1000 j kg. Although there is no lightning
currently with these showers, going through this morning, there
should be enough instability for at least scattered
thunderstorms to develop. Given the abundant low level moisture
across the region with pwats between 1.7-2", rain may be heavy
at times.

Wave passes through by midday, and any showers and thunderstorms
will taper off. With the approach of another shortwave this
afternoon and early evening, conditions will become unstable enough
to potentially support strong to severe thunderstorms. Will have
pops capped at chance for now.

With SW flow tapping into a subtropical airmass, highs today should
top off in the upper 70s to low 80s north and west of i-76, and in
the mid to upper 80s across most of southern and eastern nj,
southeast pa, and the delmarva. With dewpoints in the low 70s, the
heat index will be in the low to mid 90s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday
Any showers and thunderstorms early will taper off in the evening.

Warm and humid conditions remain in place as the subtropical airmass
remains over the region. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid
70s, and dewpoints will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

The remnant low of cindy moves towards the appalachians this
evening, and then towards the DELMARVA prior to daybreak Saturday.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will move into far western zones
after midnight, and then the heaviest precip will hold off until the
pre-dawn hours. Given the abundant moisture across the region, rain
may be heavy at times, and cannot rule out localized flooding.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
A ridge of high pressure will be across the middle atlantic region
Sunday. A fair weather day is expected with temperatures right
around seasonal norms. The airmass will be much drier than both
Friday and Saturday, so it will be a good day for outdoor
activities.

A surface cold front and a slow moving upper trough will affect the
weather from Monday afternoon into Tuesday. The system will not have
a great deal of moisture to work with, but the colder temperatures
aloft will help develop showers and a few tstms during the period.

Pops are only in the slight chc or low chc range attm. Temperatures
thru the period will mostly be around 5 degrees below normal for
late june. Highs will be in the mid upper 70s across the north and
close to 80 near metro philadelphia and over delmarva.

The rest of the long term looks dry with slowly moderating
temperatures and rising humidity levels. Highs will remain below
normal Wednesday and then rise to near normal for Thu fri. Most of
the models are showing high pressure across the area, slowly moving
offshore by Friday. A few showers Fri afternoon far N W are
possible according to the 00z ec.

Aviation 10z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

MVFR ifr conditions will develop in shra and scattered tsra this
morning, and thenVFR conditions once those showers move north and
east of the local terminals. Another round of shra tsra possible in
the afternoon and early evening, and some storms could be strong to
possibly severe. Heavy rain is possible, and MVFR ifr conditions
possible.

Conditions dry out in the evening, and then heavy rain, scattered
thunderstorms, and ifr and lower conditions possible in the pre-dawn
hours Saturday morning.

Sw flow 5-10 kt today through tonight. Gusts to 20 kt possible this
afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday Saturday night... Lower CIGS vsbys with showers and
tstms mostly in the morning. Conditions improving late.

Sunday Monday morning...VFR expected.

Monday afternoon thru tue... MostlyVFR. Sct showers tstms.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions through this morning. SCA conditions develop this
afternoon on the ocean with 25-30 kt gusts and 4-6 ft seas. Will
also hoist a SCA for de bay, as 25 kt gusts likely, but that would
be for this afternoon and early evening.

Sca conditions on the ocean through tonight.

One round of showers and scattered thunderstorms will impact the
waters this morning through midday, and then another round of
showers and potentially strong thunderstorms possible late this
afternoon and early this evening.

The remnant low of cindy will approach late tonight, and showers and
scattered thunderstorms with heavy rain will move into the waters
after midnight tonight and into the pre-dawn hours on Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Saturday night... SCA conditions. Showers tstms
Saturday and Saturday evening.

Sunday Sunday night... Sub-sca conditions. Fair.

Monday tue... Sub-sca with sct showers late. Few tstms tue.

Rip currents...

there is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents at nj ocean beaches and a low risk for the development
of dangerous rip currents at de ocean today. However, even with
a low risk... The bigger diurnal difference in the tide cycle as
we approach the date of this months new moon could mean some
rapidly changing conditions.

Tides coastal flooding
High astronomical tide levels are expected in association with the
new moon today. Based on the latest guidance, not expecting
widespread minor coastal flooding with the high tide cycle this
afternoon and evening. Will hold off on issuing a coastal flood
advisory, as tide levels should fall just short of minor flooding
thresholds.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon today to 6 pm edt Saturday for
anz450>455.

Small craft advisory from noon today to 9 pm edt this evening
for anz430-431.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Mps
short term... Mps
long term... O'hara
aviation... Mps o'hara
marine... Mps o'hara
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 11 mi42 min 74°F 79°F1010.7 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 13 mi42 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 75°F 77°F1011 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 14 mi42 min SW 9.9 G 13 77°F 77°F1010.8 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 14 mi42 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 74°F 82°F1011.3 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 23 mi57 min SSW 2.9 73°F 1012 hPa71°F
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 27 mi22 min SSW 9.7 G 12 79°F 1010.5 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 30 mi42 min 76°F 1010.2 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 36 mi42 min S 5.1 G 7 77°F 80°F1011.4 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 38 mi42 min SSW 12 G 12 75°F 1011.9 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 44 mi42 min 77°F 76°F1010.2 hPa
44043 - Patapsco, MD 45 mi22 min WSW 12 G 16 77°F 1011.8 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 45 mi42 min SSW 7 G 9.9 75°F 67°F1011.4 hPa
BDSP1 49 mi42 min 77°F 1010.8 hPa

Wind History for Delaware City, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE19 mi81 minS 49.00 miFair75°F73°F94%1011.1 hPa
Dover Air Force Base, DE19 mi74 minSSW 810.00 miFair76°F75°F100%1011.1 hPa

Wind History from ILG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3CalmCalmSE3SE5S8SE11W7W9SW9W11SW6SW6SW8SW3SW5SW4SW4SW3SW3SW5SW3S4S5
1 day agoCalmSW6W8SW8W8W11
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W10NW10W5SW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3Calm
2 days agoW7W8W9W9W8W11SW12SW8W12SW11SW13SW8SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Taylors Bridge, Blackbird Creek, Delaware River, Delaware
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Taylors Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:21 AM EDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:41 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:54 PM EDT     3.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:42 PM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.63.52.92.11.30.70.1-00.41.11.92.52.93.12.71.91.10.60.100.41.22.12.9

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:20 AM EDT     -2.53 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:11 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:15 AM EDT     2.46 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:56 AM EDT     -0.09 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:08 PM EDT     -1.58 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:55 PM EDT     0.07 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:12 PM EDT     2.00 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:31 PM EDT     -0.02 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.5-2.5-2.1-1.6-0.71.42.12.42.41.91.3-0.3-1.3-1.6-1.4-10.31.21.721.91.2-1.1-1.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.