Saturday, May27, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Hamilton, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 8:57PM Saturday May 27, 2017 1:20 PM EDT (17:20 UTC) Moonrise 7:14AMMoonset 10:02PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamilton, OH
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location: 39.4, -84.57     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 271523
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
1123 am edt Sat may 27 2017

With warm and moist air over the ohio valley, there will be
occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend. After a cold front moves through the region Sunday
night, drier conditions are expected for Monday.

Near term through tonight
A fair amount of sc has developed across the area this morning,
especially along and south of a weak boundary that is laid out
across our area. These clouds should begin to mix out lift into
more of a CU field as we progress through this afternoon and
begin to destabilize. Good instabilities are progged to develop
through this afternoon with ml capes forecast up into the
2000-3000 j kg range by mid to late afternoon. Forecast
soundings continue to show some capping along and north of the
boundary, but across our south it does appear that at least some
scattered thunderstorms development will be possible. This may
be aided somewhat by a very weak wave that is forecast to push
east along the boundary through mid to late afternoon. Wind
fields are not all that impressive though with both the 0-3 km
and 0-6 km shear values somewhat marginal for organized storms.

However, given the degree of instability, some strong to severe
storms will be possible with any development later this
afternoon into early evening with the main threat being large
hail and damaging winds. With mid and upper level flow parallel
to the boundary, some training storms may also be possible if
things do get going. This combined with pws forecast to push up
into the 1.5 to possibly 2.0 inch range, would support a locally
heavy rain flash flood threat.

Short term Sunday
After any storms along the boundary have dissipated or moved se
of the iln CWA this evening, another break in the action is
expected. From here, attention will turn to the severe
(potentially very severe) convection occurring well upstream
across missouri and southern illinois. This activity is not even
expected to reach the lower ohio valley until late evening, and
thus, any impacts on the iln CWA will be well into the overnight
hours. 00z runs across the suite of models have been fairly
consistent in depicting this activity propagating into the
instability greater theta-e air mass, roughly along an ese
trajectory. The iln CWA will be on the northern fringe of this,
still in a favorable area for convection to develop ahead of a
mid-level shortwave, but removed from the best thermodynamic
environment at a sub-optimal time of day. A severe threat will
exist -- mainly a damaging wind threat -- but should not be as
significant as areas further south and west. The main focus here
will be in the overnight early Sunday morning hours.

Once the morning activity has passed east, another break is
expected through the first half of Sunday. Additional storms
associated with the cold front will be discussed in the long
term afd section below. With less certainty in the pattern, will
not allow a completely dry forecast for this time period, as
there should still be some isentropic ascent with continued warm
advection aloft.

The temperature forecast through the first three periods of the
forecast is one that is largely dependent on convection and
clouds, so perhaps it would be better read as a mid-point of the
expectations -- get some clearing and it will be too low, get
some convection and it will be too high. There will be a general
sw-to-ne gradient in temperatures across the iln CWA through the
period, and depending on the position of the surface boundaries,
a tighter gradient may exist than what is currently in the

Long term Sunday night through Friday
A cold front will move east through the region Sunday night.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of
the front. A few strong to severe storms will be possible late
Sunday afternoon into the evening hours with damaging winds and
large hail the primary severe weather threats. Precipitation should
exit east of the eastern cwfa after midnight, with clearing expected
behind the front.

The first half of the week will feature a large closed upper level
low which is forecast to rotate slowly east across ontario. Embedded
disturbances rotating around the low, along with weak sfc trof axes,
will bring a low chance threat of a few showers from time to time,
mainly during the peak heating of the day. Otherwise, partly cloudy
conditions with seasonable temperatures in the 70s are expected.

As the upper level low finally rotates farther east by the end of
the work week, we should finally see a distinct dry period as
surface high pressure settles over the ohio valley. Again,
temperatures will be near seasonal normals.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
Some patchy MVFR ceilings remain in place across the region, but
these should lift toVFR over the next few hours, andVFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the day today.

Chances for precipitation will be limited to passing light
showers this morning, before dry conditions are expected late
morning into the afternoon. Winds will be westerly to
northwesterly at generally around 10 knots.

During the mid to late afternoon, there will be a chance of some
showers and storms developing near cincinnati. However,
confidence remains too low to include specifically, so a vcsh
will be used in the tafs.

Additional chances for showers and storms will be possible late
Saturday night into Sunday morning, along with MVFR ceilings.

Outlook... Intermittent chances of thunderstorms along with MVFR
ceilings will be possible from Saturday night through Monday

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Hatzos
near term... Jgl
short term... Hatzos
long term... Hickman
aviation... Hatzos

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Butler County Regional Airport, OH4 mi28 minWSW 69.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F69°F77%1011.6 hPa
Hook Field Municipal Airport, OH13 mi26 minSW 610.00 miOvercast77°F66°F70%1012.2 hPa
Cincinnati, Cincinnati Municipal Airport Lunken Field, OH22 mi28 minWSW 68.00 miOvercast78°F70°F76%1011.4 hPa
Dayton, Dayton-Wright Brothers Airport, OH23 mi28 minVar 610.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F66°F74%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from HAO (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW8SW9SW66SW655S3S543CalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmW4W7W7SW5SW6SW6
1 day agoW9
2 days agoE6E5E6W4W144NW8NW6NW4W4W3W7W5SW4SW4SW4SW5SW3S4W3NW5NW5W6W8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.