Thursday, November22, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Hamilton, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 5:19PM Thursday November 22, 2018 5:23 AM EST (10:23 UTC) Moonrise 5:22PMMoonset 6:33AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamilton, OH
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location: 39.4, -84.57     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 220830
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
330 am est Thu nov 22 2018

High pressure to the east of the region will provide dry
conditions through late Friday before the approach of an upper
level system brings rain back to the area Friday night into
Saturday. Another system will affect the area Sunday night into
early Monday. Slightly below normal temperatures will trend to
slightly above normal for this weekend.

Near term through tonight
Expansive surface high pressure will build into the interior
northeast u.S. Through today, providing quiet weather conditions
across the entire ohio valley region.

Locally, the iln fa will contend with a mix of Sun and clouds,
with a trend toward cloudier conditions for the northeast half
of the area and generally clearer conditions for the
southwestern counterpart. This fine line in cloud cover will
slowly erode with daytime heating, but conditions may not go
completely clear for central ohio until well after sunset. Thus,
skies will be mostly sunny toward the tri-state area and
generally partly sunny to mostly cloudy for central ohio
throughout the daytime hours. The dichotomy of cloud cover in
the area will yield relatively variable temperature trends, even
through peak heating hours. As such, anticipate a fairly good
temp gradient to exist this afternoon from SW to NE across the
iln fa. Highs will top out in the low mid 40s in the SW to the
low mid 30s in the ne.

Surface flow will begin to veer late this evening into the
overnight hours as the surface high pressure drifts further east
of the region. This will allow easterly flow to go more
southeasterly and eventually southerly toward the end of the
near term period.

Despite the trend toward southerly surface flow tonight, do
think that with gradually clearing skies, lows will bottom out
in the lower 30s in the southwest to the lower mid 20s in the

Short term Friday
Southerly surface flow will slowly increase during the day on
Friday as the pressure gradient becomes a bit tighter with the
ohio valley temporarily scrunched between high pressure to the
east and low pressure to the west. This will allow for
noticeably warmer temperatures to filter into the area during
this time frame, with highs anticipated to top out near 50
degrees in the north to possibly the mid upper 50s in the

Aloft, a somewhat potent S W will approach the ohio valley from
the west during the day on Friday. By Friday evening, the
shortwave trough may even become slightly negatively tilted,
which will provide more than enough forcing lift to generate
widespread light to occasionally moderate rain by Friday night.

Recent model guidance has trended a bit slower with the onset of
pcpn, but perhaps only by a few hours. As such, most of the
rain will likely hold off until after the conclusion of the
short term period.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Mid level short wave energy will lift up across the region Friday
night through Saturday. This will allow for widespread rain to
develop Friday night and continue into Saturday morning. The rain
should then taper off southwest to northeast through the afternoon as
the system shifts into the lower great lakes. Highs on Saturday will
range from the upper 40s in the northwest to the low to mid 50s in
the south.

We will briefly dry out for Saturday night into Sunday morning.

However, short wave energy moving out of the central plains will
rotate across the ohio valley and lower great lakes Sunday night
into Monday. This will help carve out a broader upper level trough
that will remain in place across the eastern CONUS through at least
the middle part of next week. This initial short wave will also
allow for a developing surface low pressure system to lift from the
mid mississippi valley Sunday morning into southern ontario through
Monday night. As a result, expect to see an increasing chance of
rain across our area later Sunday afternoon and then continuing
Sunday night, before tapering back to a chance of showers through
the day on Monday. Highs on Sunday will be in the 50s but cooler air
will filter into the area by Monday with highs mostly in the upper
30s to lower 40s. This could allow for some snow to mix with any
lingering rain showers across at least parts of our northwest
through Monday afternoon.

In northwest flow aloft and with our area on the edge of some better
cyclonic low level flow situated over the lower great lakes, suppose
a few snow showers will be possible on Tuesday, particularly across
our northeast. Temperatures through the remainder of the long term
period will remain below normal with highs generally in the 30s
for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
A cloud deck consisting of a mix of MVFRVFR clouds continues to
stretch northwest to southeast across the region, with MVFR cigs
expected from time to time for northern sites of kday, kcmh, and
klck. Kiln will be on the very edge of this cloud deck through
the mid-morning hours and may briefly go MVFR at times --
although confidence on this occurring precluded inclusion in
the fcst at this time.

Kcvg and kluk will have mostly clear skies through the remainder
of the overnight period -- and as such are already seeing some
signs of br forming which will lead to MVFR or even brief ifr
vsbys until about 13z.

The lingering cloud cover for northern sites should
scatter lift somewhat during the daytime hours, yielding
increasingly clear skies through the afternoon. Nevertheless,
anticipateVFR conditions area-wide past mid-morning.

Light northeasterly winds will go more easterly and eventually
southeasterly through the period -- but should stay at 10kts or

Outlook... MVFR conditions are possible Friday night through
Saturday night, and again from Sunday night into Monday.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Kc
near term... Kc
short term... Kc
long term... Jgl
aviation... Kc

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Butler County Regional Airport, OH4 mi31 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist27°F23°F85%1030.4 hPa
Hook Field Municipal Airport, OH13 mi29 minNNE 35.00 miFog/Mist29°F27°F94%1029.8 hPa
Cincinnati, Cincinnati Municipal Airport Lunken Field, OH22 mi31 minN 01.25 miFog/Mist27°F27°F100%1030.4 hPa
Dayton, Dayton-Wright Brothers Airport, OH23 mi31 minENE 55.00 miFog/Mist30°F26°F85%1029.6 hPa

Wind History from HAO (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW43S36SW7W7SW7W6W43NW8N6N6N5N6NE5CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoW5W8W5W5NW9W8W8NW9W7W7W8W6W5W8SW4CalmW4CalmSW3W8W7W7W6SW6
2 days agoCalmNE3E4E4E3CalmCalmNW4NW3NW5W5CalmW4W7W4W6W4NW3W4NW8NW10NW7W3W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.