Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 8:49 PM Moonrise 3:14 PM   Moonset 2:55 AM

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FXUS61 KILN 190229 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1029 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Much above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected for Sunday and Monday, with a chance of showers and storms returning as early as Tuesday. The next widespread chance for showers and storms is likely Wednesday and Wednesday night, with slightly cooler conditions for the second half of the workweek.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
For the overnight hours, mostly clear skies and light to calm winds can be expected. There will be some patchy to areas of fog, but most of this should be relegated to the river valleys.
Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
Narrow mid level and surface ridges to build into the area Sunday. This will allow for dry and mostly sunny sky conditions.
A warm day is in store for the region with highs generally in the mid 80s.

The mid level ridge axis looks to continue protecting the area from pcpn Sunday night. Axis of weak instability will slip into areas to the north around the periphery of the ridge. Have a few mid level clouds spilling into the northwest with lows from 60 to 65.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Warm conditions with highs in the 80s will be in place Monday and Tuesday with the potential for a few pop up showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will approach on Wednesday and move through Wednesday night into Thursday. There will be the potential for severe weather on Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty with the strength of this system and timing. Due to this, held off on adding to the HWO at this time until more details are resolved.

After the passage of the front cooler will conditions will be in place for Thursday with highs generally in the 70s. There is still model variance and uncertainty for Friday into Saturday on whether a cooler and drier pattern will set up or whether there will be a surge in moisture from the south. Continued to limit precipitation chances to the chance category until models come more in line.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Weak mid level disturbance over east central Ohio will drift slowly south overnight. Diurnal instability and weak lift has resulted in isolated convection east of the KCMH/KLCK terminals.
Precipitation should weaken and dissipate after sunset as the airmass stabilizes.

For the overnight period, mostly clear skies and light to calm winds can be expected. There will be some patchy to areas of fog developing after 06Z Sunday. However, most of this will be relegated to river valleys. That's where IFR or lower conditions could occur, such as at KLUK.

On Sunday, mid level ridging will build northeast across our region. Fog should lift between 12Z and 14Z. Some FEW-SCT cumulus clouds can then be expected to develop around 16Z. Winds will become north to northeast around 5 knots. A weak front dropping southeast into the central Great Lakes should stay mainly northwest of our forecast area.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely Wednesday into Wednesday night.
MVFR/IFR ceilings possible Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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Wilmington, OH,