Monday, November19, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Gabbs, NV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 4:39PM Monday November 19, 2018 7:34 AM PST (15:34 UTC) Moonrise 3:59PMMoonset 3:39AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gabbs, NV
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location: 39.42, -117.91     debug

Area Discussion for - Reno, NV
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Fxus65 krev 191113 aaa
area forecast discussion
national weather service reno nv
309 am pst Mon nov 19 2018

Dry and stagnant conditions with valley inversions through
Wednesday morning. A pattern change will bring gusty winds, valley
rain and mountain snow Wednesday to Saturday. Be prepared for
slow travel and winter driving conditions Wednesday to Saturday.

Short term
After weeks of dry conditions under strong high pressure, a
significant pattern shift will occur by Wednesday as weak to
moderately strong weather system moves into the region. This
system will remain on the north side of a relatively strong jet
stream, 160+ kts, that will move through southern california and
nevada. However, it is also lifting which is characteristic of a
weakening wave. Additional systems will impact the region through
the holiday weekend. This means that today and Tuesday will be
the best days for those with travel plans this week.

Impacts: slick driving conditions are expected over sierra passes
that are above 7500 feet by late Wednesday morning . Wet roads
can be expected below 7500 feet and will be initially slick as
road residue, like oil, begins to wash off paved surfaces. Allow
for extra time on top of what you would have allowed for increased
traffic for the upcoming holiday. Your plan should include the
possibility of road closures especially for ebbetts(4),
senora(108), and tioga passes(120). Some moderate crosswinds will
be possible for west-to-east routes like highway 50 and interstate
80; there could be difficult spots for higher profile vehicles
where winds are channeled in more localized areas.

Timing: model timing for the onset of precipitation has slowed a
little for Wednesday from previous runs. Current trajectory for
the low favors a west-southwest to east-northeast track across
northern california. As such, precipitation chances were scaled
back a little until later Wednesday morning. Current projections
show that precipitation will begin in western lassen county by
6am, along the sierra crest by 10am, and in western nevada around

Snow levels and precipitation character: snow levels will start
around 5500 to 6500 feet early Wednesday morning, rise up to 7500
feet by the afternoon due to southerly flow, and then fall
overnight back to around 6000 feet. As such, snow will can be
expected for sierra passes by late Wednesday morning and continue
into thanksgiving day. Elevations below 7000 feet in the sierra
could see a mix during the day, with periods of rain or snow
depending on precipitation intensity. Finally, some snow will be
possible down to lake tahoe level by late Wednesday evening into
thanksgiving day. Lower elevations can expect mainly rain. The
heaviest period of precipitation is currently projected to occur
in the early afternoon through late evening which coincides with
the warmest period of Wednesday. This will leave snow
accumulations heaviest in highest elevations will little to no
snow at lake tahoe level until Wednesday night.

Totals: liquid equivalents through early thanksgiving day will
vary sharply from the sierra crest to western nevada which is
fairly typical. That said, totals did come in a marginally wetter
for the sierra crest while western nevada was scaled back due to
the south-to-north orientation of the moisture. Current snow
totals are generally 6-12 inches above 8000 feet and up to 4
inches down to lake tahoe level. Certainty for elevations around
lake tahoe level is fairly low and depends on timing of cold air,
precipitation intensity. If the system slows down a little more,
totals will likely be closer to 4 inches; if faster, only an inch
or so will be possible. Still, with preceding rain and warm
surfaces, any snow that falls will likely melt below 6500 feet.

Winds: with the jet displaced south of the region by Wednesday,
ridge gusts are only expect to be out of the southwest in the
60-85 mph range. Meanwhile, western nevada surface winds will
largely be directed south to southwest. This flow regime supports
gusts generally 25-40 mph for lower elevations and generally bumpy
conditions for aircraft. Boyd

Long term Thursday onward...

* changes to overall forecast thinking were minimal.

* strongest winds (sw-w) anticipated on Thursday, though it will
remain breezy on Friday.

* best post-thanksgiving travel window currently looks to be Sunday,
with Saturday afternoon and night looking decent as well.

The first system begins to exit Thursday, with the next wave of
moisture following right behind. There will likely be a break in
precipitation much of thanksgiving day in western nevada, while in
the sierra and northeast ca precipitation will be lighter, but
might not stop.

This lull in precipitation will coincide with increasing
southwesterly winds across the sierra into western nevada.

Forecast soundings and model cross-sections are indicating there
could be some downslope enhancement, but this does not look to be a
true downslope wind event. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph are possible,
with wind prone areas potentially reaching higher speeds. Winds will
remain breezy Thursday night into Friday morning as 700 mb winds
peak out around 50-60 kts with the atmosphere not expected to
decouple overnight.

This next storm for Thursday night into Friday is tapping into
deeper pacific moisture. Atmospheric river detection probabilities
for inland penetration are increasing, however, the latitude is a
bit far north for our region, around 40-43n. Coastal landfall progs
remain high down to about 36n. This could mean that the western
slopes of the sierra see significantly more precipitation from this
wave than the eastern sierra. It also means that the best chances
for precipitation from this system will remain north of
approximately us-50. With marked warm air advection associated with
the system, snow levels will begin to rise Thursday night into
Friday morning. The question is at what point snow may turn to
rain in the 5500-6500 foot range. Soundings are showing shallow
isothermal profiles, which along with increasing precipitation
rates could hold snow levels down until around daybreak Friday.

During the day Friday, snow levels should rise to around 7000-7500
feet. This storm has the potential to bring 6-18" of additional
snow accumulation above 7500 feet.

The final shortwave moves through the region over the weekend, but
is much weaker and faster moving than the first two. With the jet
stream focused into the pac nw, once again areas north of us-50
will be favored for precipitation. There are differences in the
track of the wave between operational models and their ensembles,
so next weekend remains lower confidence. The takeaway at this
point is that some lighter rain and snow could linger into
Saturday, but will start to clear late in the day. This will leave
late in the day Saturday and Sunday as decent travel windows
following thanksgiving.


Conditions will remainVFR through Tuesday with minor slantwise
visibility reductions possible as smoke from the camp fire filters
into the region aloft.

Significant changes are coming Wednesday through Saturday with a
series of storms moving through the region. Southerly winds will
begin to increase Wednesday which local studies have shown bring
the risk of llws to krno. Sw-w winds will further increase
Thursday and Thursday night bringing potential for turbulence and
mountain wave activity. Breezy winds continue into Friday,
followed by lighter winds for the weekend.

Periods of valley rain and mountain snow are also expected
Wednesday through Saturday morning leading to lowered ceilings and
visibility along with mountain obscuration. For krno and kcxp,
precipitation will stay as rain with less than a 10% chance of any
snow mixing in. Ktrk and ktvl will be going back and forth
between rain and snow through the event with minor accumulations
possible. Kmmh will likely be snow Wednesday and Thursday, with a
mix of rain and snow possible for Friday. The best chances for
accumulation for all mountain terminals will be Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. -dawn

Rev watches warnings advisories
Nv... None.

Ca... None.

For more information from the national weather service visit...

http: weather.Gov reno

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fallon, Naval Air Station, NV42 mi39 minSSW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy17°F12°F80%1020.9 hPa

Wind History from NFL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmS335553NE6NE7NE5N5N4CalmCalmCalmS4SW4CalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmSW3
1 day agoCalmSW3CalmCalmN43N6NE5N5N6CalmW5CalmSW4S5SE5CalmS4S3W4S4S5SW3SW3
2 days agoCalmCalmW3Calm3Calm3CalmN5NE4CalmW7SE5SE5SE6S4S4--NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Reno, NV (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Reno, NV
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.