Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fort Bragg, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 8:01PM Sunday August 20, 2017 8:30 AM PDT (15:30 UTC) Moonrise 4:16AMMoonset 6:32PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ455 Cape Mendocino To Pt Arena Out 10 Nm- 219 Am Pdt Sun Aug 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..SW winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts to around 35 kt. Waves N 5 ft at 7 seconds...and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy smoke.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves N 4 ft at 7 seconds...and sw 2 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog.
Mon..SW winds up to 5 kt. Waves N 4 ft at 7 seconds...and nw 2 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog.
Mon night..W winds up to 5 kt. Waves nw 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves nw 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves nw 4 ft at 7 seconds...and nw 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves nw 8 ft at 7 seconds...and nw 4 ft at 11 seconds.
PZZ400 219 Am Pdt Sun Aug 20 2017
Synopsis for northern california waters..Northerly gales will continue across the outer waters through tonight. Gale force gusts will be possible nearshore, primarily near point saint george and cape mendocino. Seas will be large and steep through tonight. Marine conditions are expected to settle by the middle of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fort Bragg, CA
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location: 39.42, -123.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Eureka, CA
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Fxus66 keka 201136
afdeka
area forecast discussion
national weather service eureka ca
436 am pdt Sun aug 20 2017

Synopsis Northeasterly winds will continue to transport smoke
across the redwood coast through early next week. Thunderstorms
will be possible over portions of trinity and northeastern
mendocino counties during the afternoon and evening hours of
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

Discussion High pressure off the coast and low pressure over
southern ca continues to bring a strong pressure gradient over the
northern portion of the area. North to northeast winds of 10 to 20
mph with gusts to 35 mph continue this morning. This offshore flow
is keeping most of the area clear of clouds and fog. There is
still fairly widespread smoke, especially in the northern portion
of the area. As the low starts to move north towards the area the
pressure gradient is weakening along the mendocino coast. This is
allowing a southerly surge of winds and stratus to start pushing
northwards.

Tonight offshore flow weakens considerably. Models are showing
that this will allow the stratus to spread northward. There is
still some weak offshore flow at 925 mb limit the stratus slightly
in humboldt and del norte counties. This is expected to start
burning off by mid morning, but will likely persist at the
immediate coast through late morning. In mendocino county the
southerly winds at the surface will likely push the stratus up
into the coastal areas from point arena to CAPE mendocino. This
may be slow to burn off as well.

Monday afternoon there is the potential for some thunderstorms
over the interior. Current models show the best potential to be
over the yolla bolla's. A storm or two could form in this area,
but it is not expected to be very widespread. Monday night stratus
will likely be more widespread at the coast and the marine layer
will deepen.

Tuesday afternoon looks to have the best chance for
thunderstorms. The upper level low continues to push north in this
pattern putting us in southeast flow. There is decent instability
and mid level lapse rates are around 7c km. Storm motion will be
weak, around 5 to 10 kt. This should help limit the potential for
lightning fires, but they may hold over until the warm weather
later in the week. Tuesday night the marine layer is expected to
be deep once again. Wednesday there is another chance for
thunderstorms. It certainly does not look as favorable as on
Tuesday. Another upper level trough starts to approach the area
bringing us southwest flow. This is much drier and mid level lapse
rates are poor as well. Left thunderstorms in the forecast, but if
models continue to show conditions this stable they may need to be
removed.

Thursday the upper level trough moves past the area. This will
likely be the coolest day with temperatures in the 80s to low 90s
in the inland areas. Friday into the weekend high pressure builds
back in the area bringing above normal temperatures again. This
also brings some more offshore flow which should limit the coastal
clouds. Additional smoke is possible, but this is difficult to
predict due to uncertainty on the size of the fires. Mkk

Aviation Due to fire in SW oregon near brookings and low level
northeasterly winds, there were smoke in the area including crescent
city and arcata. With the steep seas, there were also sea sprays in
the area. Do expect a combination of sea sprays and smoke will
reduce visibilities in crescent city and arcata airports today.

Think that smoke will be more dominant, so put that as the weather
group. Do expect conditions to lower to MVFR at times, otherwise it
should remain mostlyVFR for kcec and kacv. Do expect the gusty
north winds in crescent city to continue.

Meanwhile, marine stratus is trying to sneak into ukiah from the
south early this morning. If it does so, do expect the conditions to
lower to MVFR or ifr. If there is any marine stratus, it should
quickly burn off this morning, giving way toVFR conditions for the
rest of the day for ukiah.

Marine Steep seas and gale conditions will continue through
tonight. Overnight last night, buoys in NW california reported gale
force wind gusts with steep seas up to 16 to 18 feet. The active
marine weather is caused by a tight pressure gradient off nw
california coast, as a strong high pressure pinches against the west
coast while thermal low persists over central california. Do expect
improving conditions by Monday. Before then, we have gale warning
for the outside waters, small craft advisory for the inside waters,
and hazardous seas warning for the northern inside waters through
tonight.

Changes to the previous forecast package were minor. Utilized gfs
and NAM as the models of choice.

Fire weather Northeasterly winds gusting from 20-30 mph are
occurring this morning for elevations above 1500 feet in del
norte county. These winds combined with poor overnight rh recovery
of 30 to 45 percent and sufficiently dry fuels will yield a
locally critical fire weather threat. A red flag warning remains
in effect for fire zone 203 (upper smith) in interior del norte
county from through 8am Sunday for elevations above 1500 feet.

Surrounding the red flag warning, slightly weaker winds will limit
the severity of the
there is a chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening hours of Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday across trinity and
northeastern mendocino counties. Current models show the best
chance for storms on Tuesday. These storms are expected to move
very slowly, which will favor wetting rainfall collocated with
lightning. Late in the week warm and dry conditions are expected
to return which will allow any holdover fires to continue to burn
and strengthen. Mkk

Eka watches warnings advisories
Ca... Red flag warning until 8 am pdt this morning for caz203.

Northwest california coastal waters...

small craft advisory until 3 am pdt Monday for pzz450-455.

Hazardous seas warning until 9 am pdt this morning for pzz450.

Gale warning until 3 am pdt Monday for pzz470-475.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46014 - PT ARENA - 19NM North of Point Arena, CA 16 mi31 min S 9.7 G 14 1012.3 hPa (+1.3)
ANVC1 - 9416841 - Arena Cove, CA 35 mi43 min ESE 6 G 9.9 56°F 55°F1012.6 hPa

Wind History for Arena Cove, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ukiah Municipal Airport, CA37 mi35 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F54°F93%1011.7 hPa

Wind History from UKI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmE34SE7SE9SE9SE8SE7S7S7S7S6S5S7S6S4S8S6S4SE4SE3Calm
1 day agoSE3CalmCalmE33SE8SE6SE844NE5E3S7S6S6SE6S4S4S5E3CalmCalmCalmSE3
2 days agoCalmE3CalmCalmE5CalmCalmNW10NW8N8N8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S5S5S6S5CalmSE4

Tide / Current Tables for Noyo River, California
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Noyo River
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:51 AM PDT     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:16 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:32 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:25 AM PDT     5.17 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:35 PM PDT     2.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:32 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:03 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:43 PM PDT     6.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.33.71.90.4-0.6-0.9-0.40.72.13.54.65.15.14.53.62.72.12.12.63.64.866.86.9

Tide / Current Tables for Point Cabrillo, California Current
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Point Cabrillo
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Sun -- 01:49 AM PDT     -1.57 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:17 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:43 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:33 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:49 AM PDT     1.30 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:58 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:27 PM PDT     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:43 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:32 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:03 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:36 PM PDT     1.06 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:28 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1-1.5-1.6-1.4-1.1-0.50.20.81.21.31.10.6-0-0.6-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.40.20.7110.80.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Eureka, CA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Eureka, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.