Wednesday, March22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fort Bragg, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 7:29PM Wednesday March 22, 2017 5:29 PM PDT (00:29 UTC) Moonrise 2:51AMMoonset 1:06PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ455 Cape Mendocino To Pt Arena Out 10 Nm- 210 Pm Pdt Wed Mar 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning...
Tonight..N winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves nw 3 ft at 6 seconds...and W 9 ft at 11 seconds.
Thu..E winds up to 5 kt...becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Waves S 2 ft at 5 seconds...and W 7 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of rain.
Thu night..SE winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to around 35 kt. Waves S 7 ft at 8 seconds...and W 5 ft at 15 seconds. Rain.
Fri..S winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves sw 10 ft at 11 seconds.
Fri night..S winds up to 5 kt. Waves sw 8 ft at 10 seconds... And W 5 ft at 15 seconds.
Sat..NW winds up to 5 kt. Waves W 8 ft at 15 seconds.
Sun..S winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves S 4 ft at 6 seconds...and W 7 ft at 15 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves W 11 ft at 15 seconds.
PZZ400 210 Pm Pdt Wed Mar 22 2017
Synopsis for northern california waters..An area of high pressure will allow winds and steep seas to settle briefly overnight. A strong weather front will approach the area from the west by tomorrow morning. This will lead to southerly gales and large steep waves for late Thursday afternoon through the overnight hours. Winds and waves will subside on Friday. The westerly swell will diminish during the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fort Bragg, CA
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location: 39.42, -123.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Eureka, CA
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Fxus66 keka 221122
afdeka
area forecast discussion
national weather service eureka ca
422 am pdt Wed mar 22 2017

Synopsis
Rain showers and higher elevation snow showers remain possible
through this evening. A brief drying period will then commence and
persist through at least the first half of Thursday, before another
storm system approaches the region. Gust wind will develop during
the day Thursday for the coastal ridges, with rain spreading
eastward as we head through the day. A generally wet period with
rain and higher elevation snows, will continue through early next
week, as a series of storms move across northern california.

However, this time period will not be a complete washout, as brief
dry spells are anticipated between systems.

Discussion
Short term
(today and tonight)
an unsettled weather pattern will continue through this afternoon,
as a deep upper-level trough is approaching the coastal waters as we
speak. This system has been unusually intriguing, as this
morning's water vapor imagery shows several (upwards of 6) smaller
circulations withing and along the leading edge of the trough. In
fact, a few of these disturbances crossed the region yesterday,
spanning a few thunderstorm clusters that exhibited a decent amount
of lightning (for this area and time of year), strong enough to
produce small hail across the interior and transient mesocyclones
over the outer waters. Once the system tapped into a better
shear/instability combo to our east, a few severe thunderstorm and
tornado warnings had to be issued by the sacramento forecast office.

As the trough axis crosses the region today, diurnal heating and
cooling temperatures aloft (850mb temps cool about 3 deg. C on
average) along with an onshore flow will help kick up the shower
activity by afternoon. Snow levels will be running in the ~4000 to
4500 feet range, with higher elevations snows expected. As the
previously mentioned vort maxes trek eastward, periodic bursts of
ascent could help foster some small hail or a few lightning strikes
in the more robust convection. However, confidence in how widespread
this potential would be was insufficient to include any thunder or
hail mention in the forecast at this time, but, we'll continue to
monitor this potential as we head through the morning.

Otherwise, look for cooler temperatures area-wide this afternoon due
to the onshore flow and cooling aloft previously mentioned. With
todays precipitation having more of a instability-driven component,
things should start to sputter out towards sunset, as loss of
heating/nocturnal stabilization puts the ki-bosh on any
precipitation. Increasing subsidence on the back side of the trough
will also assist in this, while helping scour out cloud cover. How
quickly the clouds thin out is another forecast factor to monitor
tonight, as increased clearing could lead to some patchy fog or
frost development, if skies become more clear than currently
anticipated. For now, temperatures look to remain just warm enough
for patchy frost to be fairly isolated across mendocino county to
preclude the issuance of a frost advisory.

Long term
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Thursday will be the proverbial calm before the storm, as the day
will start out dry. This will change by afternoon though, as a cold
front trailing south from a pacific northwest coastal low approaches
the redwood coast. Ahead of this feature, a strong low-level jet
will develop, with 925mb winds progged to top 50 knots. Thus, the
coastal ridges may well see advisory level winds develop. We were
tempted to hoist the advisory, before deciding to give it another
couple of runs and let the day shift decide for elevation and
temporal considerations. Southeast down-sloping coastal winds are
also likely to develop, which could help push afternoon temperatures
above current guidance from the eel river valley northward, and this
is something we'll be keeping an eye on.

Heading into the latter half of the afternoon and into Friday,
widespread precipitation will develop along the advancing front.

Some of this precipitation maybe moderate to heavy at times, as some
appearance of an atmospheric river setup looks to impact the area.

In fact, precipitable water values are forecast to be in the 1 to
1.1 inch range. These values are around the 97th percentile for this
time of year, adding to the heavy rainfall concerns. The
counterpoint to this is the bulk of the guidance has significantly
reduced the precipitation amounts and longevity of the heavier rain
rates, which has resulted in minimal hydro concerns for the area
rivers. As it stands right now, some nuisance urban flooding and
perhaps some rises in the smaller creeks appear to be about all this
system will muster in that department. Instability also looks almost
nill, with thunderstorms development unlikely.

A few showers will linger through the first part of Saturday, before
short-wave ridging briefly builds back across the region during the
latter half of the day into Sunday morning. For those of you who
want more rain though, never fear, another front brings more
widespread rainfall and higher elevation snows back to the region
for the Sunday afternoon into Monday time frame. High pressure
returning to the region will let us dry out for Tuesday. Temperature
wise, look for mainly seasonal values to dominate through the
forecast period. /pd

Aviation
Showers will slowly diminish through the day as a
shortwave embedded in the upper trough slides over the region.

Expect mostlyVFR conditions today with possible MVFR with shower
activity. Low clouds may develop along parts of the coast tonight
due to the abundant moisture, however, the transition to south-
southeasterly surface flow late tonight should inhibit this
development. For now, just hinted at scattered clouds but haveVFR
prevailing tonight. /kml

Marine
The small craft advisories across the coastal waters
expired early this morning as winds and seas fell below criteria
levels. Nearshore buoys reported westerly 6 to 9 ft waves around 15
seconds and should remain on this track through the remainder of the
day. Building high pressure should not only bring showers to an end
today but it will also weaken the pressure gradient bringing light
to moderate northerly winds across the coastal waters. This good-
weather window will be shortlived as a front brings another round of
potent south winds and large, steep seas for late Thursday afternoon
and evening. Winds with this system will be strongest across the
northern waters with gale force gusts, and even isolated storm force
gusts, possible across the northwest california coastal waters. As a
result, a gale watch was issued for the entire waters. High pressure
will quickly move in behind this front once again resulting in a
weakened pressure gradient and lighter winds for the weekend. Steep
waves will gradually subside in response to the winds with a
westerly swell decaying through the weekend. /kml

Eka watches/warnings/advisories
Ca... None.

Northwest california coastal waters... Gale watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
for pzz450-455-470-475.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46014 - PT ARENA - 19NM North of Point Arena, CA 16 mi30 min NW 12 G 16 52°F 1019.6 hPa (+0.0)46°F
ANVC1 - 9416841 - Arena Cove, CA 35 mi42 min WNW 8 G 14 53°F 56°F1020 hPa

Wind History for Arena Cove, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ukiah, Ukiah Municipal Airport, CA37 mi34 minW 11 G 1710.00 miOvercast56°F41°F57%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from UKI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5E5CalmSE3S3S5SE3SW3CalmCalmNW3N3W3Calm334355Calm----W11
G17
1 day agoS7
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2 days agoCalmNW3S4CalmS3S6S5S6S8SE8S9S6S8S10S4S4SE3SE4SE6SE7SE9
G16
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Tide / Current Tables for Noyo River, California
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Noyo River
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:11 AM PDT     3.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:50 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:07 AM PDT     5.07 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 02:06 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:24 PM PDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:29 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:19 PM PDT     4.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.33.13.23.544.54.95.14.94.43.62.71.710.60.71.11.82.73.544.34.34

Tide / Current Tables for Point Cabrillo, California Current
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Point Cabrillo
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:38 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:50 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:16 AM PDT     0.52 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:15 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:02 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:08 AM PDT     -1.01 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:06 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:19 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:28 PM PDT     0.84 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:29 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:32 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:51 PM PDT     -0.60 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-0.3-0.20.10.40.50.50.30-0.4-0.8-1-0.9-0.8-0.5-0.10.30.70.80.80.60.3-0.2-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Eureka, CA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Eureka, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.