Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fort Bragg, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 8:04PM Friday August 18, 2017 11:19 AM PDT (18:19 UTC) Moonrise 2:06AMMoonset 4:53PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ455 Cape Mendocino To Pt Arena Out 10 Nm- 837 Am Pdt Fri Aug 18 2017
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 15 to 25 kt with gusts to around 35 kt. Waves nw 5 ft at 7 seconds...and nw 4 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy smoke.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to around 35 kt. Waves N 7 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy smoke.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to around 40 kt. Waves N 8 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves N 7 ft at 10 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves nw 7 ft at 10 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves nw 5 ft at 7 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves N 3 ft at 6 seconds.
PZZ400 837 Am Pdt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis for northern california waters..Strong to gale force winds will persist across the outer waters for the next several days as a thermal trough intensifies over interior california. Very steep seas will build in response to the winds and will persist through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fort Bragg, CA
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location: 39.42, -123.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Eureka, CA
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Fxus66 keka 181339 cca
afdeka
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service eureka ca
639 am pdt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will maintain hot weather conditions
for the interior through the weekend. Temperatures will moderate
early to mid next week with better chances for thunderstorms across
the interior.

Discussion
As has been the pattern this week, persistent upper level ridging is
in place over NW ca. This has led to warm hot and dry conditions
across the region. This has also increased the fire activity across
our region which in turn has increased the amount of smoke. With the
current offshore flow aloft most of del norte and northern humboldt
county has been inundated with smoke from the orleans complex.

Fortunately the smoke from the chetco fire (which has had a
persistent visible elevated plume early this morning) in southern
oregon is flowing offshore. These smoke plumes can have drastic
effects on temperatures across the region by blocking sunlight
during the day leading to colder afternoon temperatures and warmer
nighttime temperatures due to the smoke acting as a blanket
preventing the heat from escaping into the atmosphere. The larger
the concentration of aerosols the more drastic the effect is and
unfortunately these concentrations are not well forecasted ahead of
time.

Coastal regions have been under the influence of a compact marine
layer which has prevented the stratus from becoming too widespread.

North of CAPE mendocino the stratus has been primarily around
humboldt bay with only a recent push further north towards
crescent city. Where the stratus has developed, visibilities have
been greatly reduced to less than half a mile at times. The
shallowness of the marine layer should allow for rapid stratus
burnoff today as winds increase and the inversion is dissolved by
early afternoon.

Models indicate a shortwave trough digging south from oregon on
Saturday afternoon however only the GFS produces precipitation over
the higher terrain. At the moment have decided to keep Saturday dry
due to convective parameters being meager at best with limited
moisture return to the area. However, this feature will help
establish a cut-off low to the west of central california early next
week. This will promote southeast flow aloft across northwest
california which will allow monsoonal moisture to stream back into
the region. This will enhance thunderstorm chances Monday and
Tuesday afternoon across interior regions with storms primarily
tied to the terrain. This increase in moisture and cloud cover
will bring slightly cooler temps to the interior as well. Later
in the week models indicate that an even more substantial trough
will approach the region which would bring temperatures down even
more. Wci

Aviation Coastal stratus is in place along much of the coast
this morning. This is bringing a range for ifr to lifr conditions.

This is expected to clear fairly quickly this morning in humboldt
and del norte counties, but is expected to stay fairly locked in
on the mendocino coast. Tonight expect ifr clouds will return in
the evening to kacv, but areas farther north such as crescent city
will be much slower to see clouds return due to offshore flow.

Interior areas will remainVFR with the exception of areas of
downwind from the fires where lower conditions may be observed.

Mkk

Marine Winds and seas remain elevated, mainly over the northern
outer waters. The evening ascat showed winds of 15 to 30 kt over
the northern outer waters. The gale warning looks to be on track.

Closer to the coast there were some southerly winds earlier in the
day, but these have mainly switched back to northerly. Tonight
models are indicating winds will increase once again. Added a
gale watch for the southern outer waters starting Saturday
morning when winds really start to increase. This may need to be
started earlier. Also on Saturday the stronger winds will likely
push into the southern inner waters and SCA will be needed. There
is the potential that a hazardous seas warning will be needed over
the inner waters due to the large waves propagating into them.

Monday models are in decent agreement that winds will diminish
fairly dramatically as the ridge of high pressure breaks down.

Waves will mainly be locally generated and steep. There will also
be a small northwest swell with a period of around 10 seconds. Mkk

Fire weather Light to moderate offshore flow will persist
across the upper elevations of zones 203, 204, and 211 for the
next several days and nights. Decided to headline this event only
as it seems very marginal per our requirements for a red flag
warning. Winds would need to be a bit stronger and rh's a bit
lower for criteria to be met. The day crew will keep an eye on
things to make sure a red flag warning isn't required. Otherwise,
hot and dry conditions will continue to prevail through the
weekend.

We will have a pattern shift late this weekend as a shortwave is
forecasted to move south and then get cut off from the flow. This
will promote moisture being transported to the north and better
thunderstorm dynamics Monday and Tuesday afternoon primarily for
zones 283 and 277. These storms should be wet and it appears that
Tuesday will have a higher chance of seeing thunderstorms however
the overall coverage is still in question due to model
variability. Wci

Eka watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Northwest california coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 9 pm pdt Sunday for pzz450.

Gale warning until 9 pm pdt Sunday for pzz470.

Gale watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for
pzz475.

Small craft advisory until 9 am pdt Saturday for pzz475.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46014 - PT ARENA - 19NM North of Point Arena, CA 16 mi39 min SSE 3.9 G 7.8 1016.8 hPa
ANVC1 - 9416841 - Arena Cove, CA 35 mi49 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 54°F 52°F1017.5 hPa

Wind History for Arena Cove, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ukiah Municipal Airport, CA37 mi83 minN 010.00 miFair68°F55°F65%1015 hPa

Wind History from UKI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE5CalmCalmNW10NW8N8N8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S5S5S6S5CalmSE4SE3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalm535NW11
G14
N11N6NE7N73S7S6S5S4S5S3S4S4S3CalmCalmCalmE3Calm
2 days ago3SE9SW7--SW7
G17
W10E6E4N3S3S6S5S5S7S5SE3SE3S5S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Noyo River, California
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Noyo River
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:06 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:12 AM PDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:30 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:51 AM PDT     4.58 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:41 PM PDT     2.49 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:53 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:56 PM PDT     6.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.51.10-0.4-0.20.51.62.73.84.44.64.33.73.12.62.52.93.74.75.86.56.86.45.4

Tide / Current Tables for Point Cabrillo, California Current
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Point Cabrillo
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:07 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:00 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:31 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:09 AM PDT     1.09 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:20 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:37 PM PDT     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:54 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:53 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:47 PM PDT     0.87 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:38 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.4-1.3-1-0.6-00.60.91.110.70.2-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.300.50.80.90.70.3-0.2-0.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Eureka, CA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Eureka, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.