Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Absecon, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 7:19PM Monday March 27, 2017 12:48 AM EDT (04:48 UTC) Moonrise 6:44AMMoonset 6:57PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 937 Pm Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
.dense fog advisory in effect until 8 am edt Monday...
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday evening...
Overnight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Mainly in ne swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Areas of fog. Isolated showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt...becoming s. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in ne swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Areas of fog early in the morning. Patchy fog late in the morning. Isolated showers until late afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less early in the morning.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Mainly in ne swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 5 seconds. A chance of showers.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt... Becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 937 Pm Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure moving from the mississippi valley into the great lakes will lift a warm front northward through our region overnight and Monday morning, followed by a cold front Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure will build into the area Wednesday through Friday. Low pressure and its associated fronts in the ohio valley on Friday will move through our region on Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Absecon, NJ
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location: 39.42, -74.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 270134
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
934 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure moving from the mississippi valley into the great
lakes will lift a warm front northward through our region overnight
into Monday morning, followed by a cold front Tuesday night.

Canadian high pressure will build into the area Wednesday through
Friday. Low pressure and its associated fronts in the ohio valley on
Friday will move through our region on Saturday. A weak area of high
pressure is expected to move into our region from the west on Sunday.

Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/
The marine influence, courtesy of a cold air damming setup and
onshore, will maintain stratus and some fog across the area.

The extent of the fog may worsen for a time overnight as warmer
air starts to move northward, and the forecast soundings
indicate the inversion lowers some. The extent of any dense fog
is less certain, however the higher terrain of the northwest
zones and closer to the coast may have the highest chance of
occurrence. We went with areas of fog with the drizzle until
pops increase enough to include a shower mention.

Temperatures remain around freezing at elevations mainly at and
above 1400 feet in the southern poconos over to northwestern
sussex county in new jersey, so light glazing is probably
continuing on elevated surfaces. This is mainly from freezing
fog/drizzle so far. There may be a little freezing rain as the
showers arrive later on, however temperatures should warm ever
so slowly overnight. No societal impacts have been noted with
the frozen precipitation and since it is confined to the higher
elevations we are highlighting this with a special weather
statement.

A short wave and associated surface low will track into the
eastern great lakes overnight. The associated ascent will mostly
affect our western zones, and therefore showers are expected to
increase and become more numerous across these areas. The
highest pops therefore remain for these areas, with these
decreasing with an eastern and southern extent. It appears that
there should not be enough elevated instability, therefore no
thunder was included at this time.

The hourly temperature and dew point grids were adjusted based
on the latest observations, then some high-res guidance was
blended in to try and better capture the colder air in the
poconos. Low temperatures were lowered a little for several
areas given a slight downward adjustment to the current
temperatures.

Short term /6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday/
By Monday morning, the shortwave trough in the great lakes is
expected to continue northeastward into the st. Lawrence valley,
with the organized large-scale ascent moving into new england
and adjacent southeast canada. Precipitation will likely become
more showery by late morning, with perhaps even hints of blue
sky in portions of DELMARVA during the afternoon. The warm front
will sweep northward well into new england by this point, and
with the warm southerly fetch, temperatures will warm
substantially above today's values. Forecast highs are 15-25
degrees above today's values. Forecast temperatures may be on
the low side if partial sunshine occurs, especially considering
the general negative bias of guidance in warm sector regimes
this winter.

There is some question if localized lift can generate more
convective showers during the Monday afternoon. Forecast
soundings are at least marginally supportive of this,
particularly northwest of i-95, where residual colder air at
midlevels combined with a well-mixed boundary layer may permit
development of isolated/scattered showers. Felt compelled to
include a mention of isolated thunder during the afternoon given
the indications of positive buoyancy during peak heating. This
is conditional, however, as transient ridging upstream of the
departing shortwave trough may preclude sufficient lift
necessary for the development of any convection.

Long term /Monday night through Sunday/
A split flow regime will continue across the CONUS during this period.

While the northern stream remains displaced to the north, our primary
weather makers will be in the southern stream. A closed low along the
lee of the rockies will gradually open and eject northeastward. Its
associated weak surface reflection and cold front will traverse the
middle atlantic, impacting our sensible weather Monday night into
Tuesday night. A cyclonic flow aloft on Wednesday will gradually give
way to ridging on Thursday. The next southern stream system in the
pipeline will impact our region Friday into Saturday.

With good run to run model consistency in terms of the timing of the
cold frontal passage Tuesday night, the next challenge will be how the
next southern stream system is handled during the Friday and Saturday
period, including the extent of phasing with the northern stream. In
particular, the track of this system and the extent of the cold air to
the north will have implications on any potential p-type issues.

Temperature-wise, around 10 to 15 degrees above normal on Tuesday, then
generally normal to several degrees above normal from Wednesday through
next weekend.

Another round of showers is expected mainly after midnight Monday night
into Tuesday night across the entire region. With the cold frontal passage
Tuesday night, showers should move offshore prior to Wednesday morning. We
do not anticipate any p-type issues during this period. We expect patchy fog
Monday night, which may linger into Tuesday afternoon north of a pa turnpike
to i-195 line. Within the warm sector in advance of the cold front, we expect
sunshine to break out, especially south of the aforementioned line with
temperatures reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s. A low-level moist
tongue will also be in place across this area, with dew points well
into the 50s. Models indicate some weak ml cape, along with negative
lifted and showalter indices, within an environment characterized by
poor lapse rates and weak shear. We have included a chance of thunder
in the forecast, and there may be some localized heavier downpours as
well. Given low precipitable water values around one inch, urban and
small stream flooding is not a concern.

In the wake of the cold front, expect a return to fair weather for
Wednesday and Thursday.

Beyond day four, the models have come into better agreement on the
Friday-Saturday system, but there still remains uncertainty regarding
the degree of phasing between the northern and southern stream,
including p-type implications. The gfs, ecmwf, and canadian take low
pressure from the ms valley into the great lakes, with varying degrees
of secondary development over the middle atlantic. The UKMET is an
outlier, maintaining a purely southern stream system, with the primary
low moving through the middle atlantic. In fact, the UKMET represents
yesterdays GFS solution, as it was previously in the former camp. The
forecast brings in chance pops Friday into Saturday. Also, given the
orientation of the surface high, cold air damming to some extent is
likely. Thickness values indicate the cold air is right on our door
step, so p-type could be an issue, especially across the northern half
of our cwa.

Aviation /01z Monday through Friday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Overnight... Ifr ceilings, lowering to lifr at times, along with
areas of MVFR/ifr visibility due to fog and some drizzle. The
extent of the visibilities due to fog is less certain. Some
showers are expected to develop between through 06z at krdg and
kabe and toward 08z at kttn, kpne, kphl and kilg. East-northeast
winds mainly 10 knots or less, becoming southeast late.

Monday... Ifr conditions (ceilings and fog) should improve to
MVFR during the morning, thenVFR during the afternoon. Some
showers should continue through the day (most coverage in the
morning north and west of kphl). A thunderstorm may occur during
the afternoon mainly north and west of kphl, however coverage
should be isolated. The chance of showers is lower at kacy amd
kmiv, although there may be some drizzle in the morning.

Southeast winds up to 10 knots, turning south during the morning
then southwest in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday night... Periods of MVFR/ifr likely in low clouds and fog
across all TAF sites.

Tuesday... MVFR likely Tuesday morning at all TAF sites, with improvement
toVFR by afternoon at all but abe, rdg, and ttn.

Tuesday night... MVFR possible at abe, rdg, and ttn early, otherwise,
vfr.

Wednesday thru Thursday... PredominantlyVFR conditions expected.

Friday...VFR conditions may deteriorate to MVFR with the arrival of
the next weather system.

There is the potential for northwest wind gusts up to around 25 knots
Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Marine
A dense fog advisory (visibility 1 nm or less) remains in effect for
all zones through 8 am Monday. Coastal observations along with
some web cams indicate fog development continues especially
across the southern areas, and this should thicken and expand
northward through the night as warming occurs aloft and dew
points increase some.

Marginal but persistent small craft advisory conditions will
continue through Monday. East to southeast winds 10-20 kts with
higher gusts will occur. Seas will likely remain elevated
(at or above 5 feet) offshore the new jersey coast through at
least Monday afternoon. As a result, the small craft advisory
goes through 7 pm Monday.

Outlook...

seas may remain elevated into Monday night, and the SCA may
need to extended into this period. A period of northwesterly
wind gusts may reach SCA criteria on Wednesday. Sub-sca
conditions are expected on Thursday. The approach of the next
system may lead to a return to SCA conditions by Friday.

Climate
March as a whole for phl, is still on track to average one half
to 1 degree below normal, despite the warmth of ydy through
Wednesday.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until 8 am edt Monday for anz430-431-
450>455.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt Monday for anz450>453.

Synopsis... Franck
near term... Cms/gorse
short term... Cms
long term... Franck
aviation... Franck/gorse
marine... Cms/franck/gorse
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 6 mi48 min 44°F 43°F1023.8 hPa (-1.9)
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 8 mi78 min NNE 6 43°F 1025 hPa42°F
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 40 mi48 min E 5.1 G 8.9 45°F 45°F1023.3 hPa (-1.9)
44091 46 mi48 min 43°F6 ft
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 47 mi48 min 43°F 43°F1023.5 hPa (-1.5)
BDSP1 49 mi48 min 41°F 1025.2 hPa (-1.4)
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 49 mi48 min 41°F 42°F1024.6 hPa (-1.6)

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ5 mi54 minNE 71.50 miFog/Mist44°F43°F96%1024.7 hPa

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE12
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1 day agoSW5SW8SW8SW7SW8SW9SW8SW9SW10
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W9W8SW7SW6W8W8E16NE10NE14
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2 days agoS5S3S5S5SW3CalmS5S8S12S13
G20
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G21
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G26
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G23
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S11S7SW8S7SW8S5SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Absecon, Absecon Creek, U.S. Hwy. 30 bridge, New Jersey
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Absecon
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Mon -- 03:00 AM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:05 AM EDT     4.58 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:25 PM EDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:26 PM EDT     4.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.80.7-0.1-0.4-00.92.23.44.24.64.33.62.41.10.1-0.5-0.40.41.62.93.94.44.43.8

Tide / Current Tables for Ventnor City, ocean pier, New Jersey
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Ventnor City
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Mon -- 01:28 AM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:34 AM EDT     4.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:49 PM EDT     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:55 PM EDT     4.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.3-0.3-0.20.51.83.14.14.84.84.12.91.60.5-0.3-0.5-01.22.63.94.74.94.53.52.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.