Wednesday, September19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palmyra, IL

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 7:03PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 12:15 PM CDT (17:15 UTC) Moonrise 3:18PMMoonset 12:27AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palmyra, IL
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location: 39.42, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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Fxus63 klsx 191132
afdlsx
area forecast discussion... Updated aviation
national weather service saint louis mo
632 am cdt Wed sep 19 2018

Short term (through late tonight)
issued at 329 am cdt Wed sep 19 2018
a quasi-stationary fnt currently lies across the NRN portions of the
cwa. The exact location is somewhat difficult due to its diffuse
nature as well as outflow boundaries in the region. Generally, it
appears to be from near k3lf nwwd to near kirk.

Mdls suggest this fnt will lift north late this morning or early
afternoon. Mdls that suggest slower propagation north also suggest
more precip along north of the fnt. Regardless, the fnt shud be well
north of the CWA by peak heating this afternoon. Mdls suggest
similar 850mb temps this afternoon compared to yesterday. However,
expect the region to have more sly winds thru low levels compared to
yesterday. Have therefore gone just a degree or two warmer today
compared to yesterday. This puts most locations with a couple of
degrees of records for today, which well within reason to be tied or
broken today. See climo section below for details.

Precip will once again be difficult to pin down timing and location.

At this point, the hrrr has a reasonable soln, with good support
from the hi-res window as well of the nssl wrf, tho believe the nssl
generates too much convection and too far west. Given the
uncertainty as well as the expected limited coverage, have kept pops
in the slight chance range. Have some pops lingering into early
evening across ERN portions of the CWA where some stronger WAA and
moisture convergence lingers. Otherwise, activity shud dissipate
quickly with sunset.

Tilly
bsh

Long term (Thursday through Tuesday)
issued at 329 am cdt Wed sep 19 2018
upper level ridging will remain in place through Thursday before a
shortwave sweeps across the northern CONUS on Friday. In the low
levels, a seasonably strong cyclone associated with the shortwave
will race from NW kansas on Thursday morning to SE canada by
Friday morning. The deepening low will result in gusty
southwesterly winds on Thursday, helping the very warm and moist
air remain in place. Forecast sounding continue to show few-to-
scattered clouds, and the GFS is evening spitting out a few
afternoon showers associated with that convection. I will keep the
forecast dry for the time being, but an isolated shower could be
possible. The bigger concern will be the heat. Forecast guidance
on the upper end of the envelope of solutions has been
performing well of late, and is showing mid-to-upper 90s across
the area.

High temperatures will be considerably cooler on Friday due to the
cold front from the previously mentioned cyclone sliding into the
region. Most guidance shows the front arriving in the northern
cwa in the morning, pushing through the area into the afternoon.

If storms don't stray too far ahead of the front, MLCAPE will
could reach into the 1500-2000 j kg range in our southern cwa,
setting the stage for thunderstorms. With deep layer shear around
30 kts, there could be an isolated severe threat.

Beyond Friday, forecast guidance becomes rather divergent. The
gfs continues to show the front sweeping well south of the area.

Meanwhile, the euro is still developing a cyclone along the ok tx
border, causing our front to stall out across southern mo with
considerable precip just south of our area through the weekend.

Given little in the way of upper level forcing for ascent, I have
my doubts about a) the front crashing far south out of the area
or b) the red river cyclogenesis. The most likely scenario seems
to be that the front will stall out somewhere across southern mo
as shown by the euro, with some on-and-off light precip through
early next week. Fortunately, guidance is a bit closer together
on temperatures, showing much more seasonable conditions settling
over the area through early next week.

Bsh

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 623 am cdt Wed sep 19 2018
showers with isod TS may impact kuin kcps briefly this morning and
have kept vcsh going for a couple of hours. However, this activity
shud continue to move east out of the region of the terminals.

Otherwise, winds will become sly today as a wrmfnt lifts north of
the region. Isod showers storms are expected once again today and
into early evening. However, at this time, probability of
impacting a terminal is far to low to include in tafs attm.

Specifics for kstl: sly winds today, backing slightly this
evening. Isod storms are expected today, but probabilities too low
to mention in TAF attm.

Tilly

Climate
Issued at 329 am cdt Wed sep 19 2018
record high temperatures for today and Thursday.

Today Thursday
stl 96 97
cou 94 98
uin 95 95

Lsx watches warnings advisories
Mo... None.

Il... None.

Wfo lsx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville Municipal Airport, IL26 mi40 minN 010.00 miFair82°F69°F66%1015.6 hPa

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Last 24hrCalmSW5SW6NW3CalmN4N8
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N8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE3E3CalmCalmN4E4E3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmNW4N6NW5NW6NW6NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW3CalmNW4CalmNW3CalmN4N3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmN3NE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Illinois, IL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.