Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Palmyra, IL
April 28, 2024 9:55 PM CDT (02:55 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:02 AM Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM Moonset 7:56 AM |
Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 282338 AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 638 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- The threat for severe thunderstorms this evening is greatly diminished due to a lack of appreciable instability. If a stronger storm can develop, marginally-severe wind and hail is still an outside possibility. A tornado cannot be ruled out as well, but is very unlikely.
- Heavy rain has a 30% chance in causing nuisance flooding overnight in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. More dramatic impacts are not forecast given the general lack of rainfall and progressive nature of the storms.
- Temperatures remain above-normal into the work week, with sporadic rain chances through the week. The highest chance for rain will accompany a cold front near the end of the week.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Monday Night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Abundant cloud cover plagues the Mid-Mississippi Valley, per latest GOES-East satellite imagery. A sluggish surface low is tracking northeast out of the central Great PLains into Iowa, leaving our region in the open warm sector ahead of a cold front extending south from the low. Despite this, the clouds and persistent showers are drastically hindering diurnal heating, keeping temperatures far more moderated than forecast. Aloft, heights have either remained steady or risen slightly in the amplified southwest flow of a closed shortwave over the northern Great Plains. The limited cooling aloft and stunted diurnal surface heating is keeping destabilization in the warm sector to a minimum.
The cold front will advance east this afternoon into the evening, serving as the catalyst for another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Despite nearly every CAM's poor attempt at modeling the instability, the mitigating factors listed above will likely win the day and hamper any threat for strong to severe thunderstorms in the forecast area. While isolated instances of marginally-severe convection can't be ruled out along the front itself, posing a damaging wind and brief, weak tornado threat, most showers and/or thunderstorms will not pose a severe weather threat. Ahead of the front, a low-level jet across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois will intensify nearly parallel to the boundary, leading to more widespread rain in that area. Given PWATs exceeding the 90th climatological percentile, deep warm cloud depths, and skinny CAPE profiles in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois, rainfall will be rather efficient and there's a 30% chance for some degree of nuisance flooding. That said, the front will keep things progressive enough to preclude any noteworthy flash flooding. The rain will also fall in an area that's largely missed out on the heavy rain that the rest of the region saw over the last few days.
The front will gradually exit the region to the southeast tomorrow and become more diffuse. While low (15-25%) PoPs linger in our far southeast region, most of the bi-state will be dry. Little to no cold air advection will be present aloft, so temperatures will stay warm to start the work week. High pressure builds into the region more prominently on Monday night amidst weak ridging aloft, sending temperatures into more comfortable low/mid-50s overnight.
MRB
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
The unsettled weather pattern will continue through most of this week into next weekend. The LREF supports most of the global models in showing quasi-zonal flow on Tuesday becoming more southwesterly by Thursday when a deeper trough moves into the Plains with the GEFS/Canadian showing a deeper and slightly slower solution than the ECWMF. At the surface, a surface front will move north of the area on Tuesday leaving the area dry before it moves down into northern parts of the CWA Tuesday night into Wednesday night bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. The aforementioned trough will bring increased ascent over the area Thursday into Thursday night along with the front, so will keep the NBM's likely/categorical PoPs as it moves across the area. Depending on the timing of the trough, chances will decrease on Friday with just slight chances currently next weekend as some of the ensemble members (10-20%) have rain chances in the zonal flow aloft. The amount of CAPE/shear seen in the LREF and the global models do not support any widespread risk for organized severe thunderstorms over the area this week which go along with the CIPS/CSU probabilities.
Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday look like they will be 10-15 degrees above normal as 850mb temperatures climb to around +15C in the warm sector. Temperatures will drop back closer to normal over the weekend behind the cold front, though the NBM IQR shows a larger spread which reflects the uncertainty associated with the zonal flow.
Britt
AVIATION
(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Showers are beginning to enter central Missouri and will continue to push east/northeastwards through the evening and overnight hours. A few thunderstorms have the potential to become strong late this evening with the passage of a cold front that is currently over far eastern Kansas. However, heavy rainfall is becoming the more likely scenario. Expect low VFR to MVFR ceilings with these showers and embedded thunderstorms through Monday morning.
After the passage of the cold front, winds will become westerly with VFR flight conditions by late Monday morning.
MMG/Britt
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 638 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- The threat for severe thunderstorms this evening is greatly diminished due to a lack of appreciable instability. If a stronger storm can develop, marginally-severe wind and hail is still an outside possibility. A tornado cannot be ruled out as well, but is very unlikely.
- Heavy rain has a 30% chance in causing nuisance flooding overnight in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. More dramatic impacts are not forecast given the general lack of rainfall and progressive nature of the storms.
- Temperatures remain above-normal into the work week, with sporadic rain chances through the week. The highest chance for rain will accompany a cold front near the end of the week.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Monday Night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Abundant cloud cover plagues the Mid-Mississippi Valley, per latest GOES-East satellite imagery. A sluggish surface low is tracking northeast out of the central Great PLains into Iowa, leaving our region in the open warm sector ahead of a cold front extending south from the low. Despite this, the clouds and persistent showers are drastically hindering diurnal heating, keeping temperatures far more moderated than forecast. Aloft, heights have either remained steady or risen slightly in the amplified southwest flow of a closed shortwave over the northern Great Plains. The limited cooling aloft and stunted diurnal surface heating is keeping destabilization in the warm sector to a minimum.
The cold front will advance east this afternoon into the evening, serving as the catalyst for another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Despite nearly every CAM's poor attempt at modeling the instability, the mitigating factors listed above will likely win the day and hamper any threat for strong to severe thunderstorms in the forecast area. While isolated instances of marginally-severe convection can't be ruled out along the front itself, posing a damaging wind and brief, weak tornado threat, most showers and/or thunderstorms will not pose a severe weather threat. Ahead of the front, a low-level jet across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois will intensify nearly parallel to the boundary, leading to more widespread rain in that area. Given PWATs exceeding the 90th climatological percentile, deep warm cloud depths, and skinny CAPE profiles in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois, rainfall will be rather efficient and there's a 30% chance for some degree of nuisance flooding. That said, the front will keep things progressive enough to preclude any noteworthy flash flooding. The rain will also fall in an area that's largely missed out on the heavy rain that the rest of the region saw over the last few days.
The front will gradually exit the region to the southeast tomorrow and become more diffuse. While low (15-25%) PoPs linger in our far southeast region, most of the bi-state will be dry. Little to no cold air advection will be present aloft, so temperatures will stay warm to start the work week. High pressure builds into the region more prominently on Monday night amidst weak ridging aloft, sending temperatures into more comfortable low/mid-50s overnight.
MRB
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
The unsettled weather pattern will continue through most of this week into next weekend. The LREF supports most of the global models in showing quasi-zonal flow on Tuesday becoming more southwesterly by Thursday when a deeper trough moves into the Plains with the GEFS/Canadian showing a deeper and slightly slower solution than the ECWMF. At the surface, a surface front will move north of the area on Tuesday leaving the area dry before it moves down into northern parts of the CWA Tuesday night into Wednesday night bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. The aforementioned trough will bring increased ascent over the area Thursday into Thursday night along with the front, so will keep the NBM's likely/categorical PoPs as it moves across the area. Depending on the timing of the trough, chances will decrease on Friday with just slight chances currently next weekend as some of the ensemble members (10-20%) have rain chances in the zonal flow aloft. The amount of CAPE/shear seen in the LREF and the global models do not support any widespread risk for organized severe thunderstorms over the area this week which go along with the CIPS/CSU probabilities.
Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday look like they will be 10-15 degrees above normal as 850mb temperatures climb to around +15C in the warm sector. Temperatures will drop back closer to normal over the weekend behind the cold front, though the NBM IQR shows a larger spread which reflects the uncertainty associated with the zonal flow.
Britt
AVIATION
(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Showers are beginning to enter central Missouri and will continue to push east/northeastwards through the evening and overnight hours. A few thunderstorms have the potential to become strong late this evening with the passage of a cold front that is currently over far eastern Kansas. However, heavy rainfall is becoming the more likely scenario. Expect low VFR to MVFR ceilings with these showers and embedded thunderstorms through Monday morning.
After the passage of the cold front, winds will become westerly with VFR flight conditions by late Monday morning.
MMG/Britt
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
Airport Reports
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Central Illinois, IL,
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