Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Frederick, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:30PM Monday March 27, 2017 12:28 PM EDT (16:28 UTC) Moonrise 5:56AMMoonset 6:09PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 1117 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Rest of today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Scattered showers late this morning...then scattered showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 10 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers through the night.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1117 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will push through the mid atlantic this morning. A cold front is expected to cross the chesapeake bay region Tuesday night. High pressure will build across the waters for midweek, followed by a low pressure system moving towards the region on Friday. Small craft advisories are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday behind the cold front, and again on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Frederick, MD
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location: 39.43, -77.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 271431
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md/washington dc
1031 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Synopsis
A warm front will positioned over southern virginia will
track north through the mid atlantic through the afternoon. A
cold front will cross the area late Tuesday. High pressure will
build over the region Thursday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Dense fog advisory no longer in effect... As visiblities have
been rapidly improving over the past half hour. Though, marine
stratus layer with low ceilings will remain until warm front
lifts through the area over the next several hours.

As is often the case, guidance is struggling somewhat with the
temporal evolution of the northward moving warm front and
removes the cad wedge along and east of the blue ridge a bit too
quickly. Thus, low ceilings may remain in portions of the area
through mid-afternoon (especially across N md). Currently don't
think this will impact todays highs too much... As expecting a
rapid warmup once front lifts through the area (highs m70s).

Cape gradient sets up this afternoon roughly from montgomery
county to the south... With ~500 j/kg of MUCAPE (250 j/kg ml
cape) expected across central/northern va into south central
md. Thus, could be a few scattered thunderstorms this afternoon
with the differential heating boundary across these areas. 0-6
shear generally near 30-35 kts suggests a storm could briefly
become somewhat organized. Though, lack of deep quality
moisture coupled with long skinny CAPE profiles and relatively
weak winds aloft likely limit any stronger thunderstorms. Gusty
winds and small sub-severe hail the primary threats in any
activity this afternoon. Thunderstorm chances rapidly decline
after sunset.

Short term /6 pm this evening through Wednesday/
While we will be forecasting "chance of showers" overnight
believe for the most part the nighttime hours will be dry. If it
does the best chances will probably be late ahead of the
approaching short wave. Lows generally in the mid 50s.

Tuesday could see thunderstorm activity as the shortwave tracks
through the mid atlantic. SPC has placed much of the forecast
area east of the mountains in a marginal risk of severe storms.

Neither the CAPE or helicity look particularly impressive for
us.

Chances for precipitation should be ending Tuesday evening as
the shortwave moves off the coast. High pressure will return
overnight and for Wednesday. Back on the roller coaster...

temperatures Wednesday should be almost ten degrees cooler than
the previous two days.

Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/
High pressure will be building into the northeastern united states
Wednesday night, sliding east on Thursday. This will lead to drier
and cooler weather, although still near climatological normals. Good
radiational cooling night Wednesday night will lead to widespread
lows in the 30s, with highs rebounding back through the 50s on
Thursday.

Meanwhile, a strong closed low will be moving northeastward out of
the southern plains on Thursday, into the mid-mississippi valley
Thursday night, and towards the mid atlantic states by later Friday,
becoming vertically stacked and gradually weakening. Model guidance
is in relatively good agreement with this progression and timing. As
the system makes its way to the eastern seaboard, some redevelopment
off of the mid-atlantic coastline Friday night into Saturday morning
is also projected.

Therefore, chances for rain showers increase Thursday night into
Friday morning with initial warm air advection, followed by bulk of
the rainfall likely coming Friday and Friday night with main frontal
push and any subsequent redevelopment. A drying trend should develop
on Saturday, with the chance for some lingering showers as the low
pulls away. High pressure will then build in for Sunday.

Temperatures in the Thursday night - Sunday time period will be
relatively seasonal, skewing slightly above normal. Lows will be
mainly in the 40s. Highs coolest on Friday in the 50s with
clouds/showers, rising into the 60s for the weekend.

Aviation /14z Monday through Friday/
Slow improvement expected over the next few hours as ceilings
slowly rise. Conditions are expected to reachVFR this
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. There
will be chances of rain showers late tonight at all taf
sites..And then possible thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Dca
has the best chance for strong gusty winds.

Vfr Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Vfr expected Wednesday night and Thursday, but chances for sub-vfr
conditions increase Thursday night and Friday with rain and low
clouds as next system moves into the area. Winds light Wednesday
night into Thursday will increase out of the southeast later
Thursday and Friday.

Marine
Sca currently in effect for the southern portion of the waters.

An isolated thunderstorm with gusty winds is possible this
afternoon into the early evening across the waters.

Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon, some of which
could produce smw level winds. This will need to be monitored.

Sub-sca conditions expected Wednesday night and Thursday. Potential
for SCA then increases Thursday night and Friday with increasing
southeasterly winds ahead of an approaching system.

Lwx watches/warnings/advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for anz533-
534-537-541>543.

Update... Mse
products... Woody!/mjm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 44 mi40 min S 7 G 8 53°F 49°F1017.6 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 45 mi40 min S 1.9 G 1.9 47°F 47°F1017.8 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 49 mi40 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 46°F 1018.2 hPa
FSNM2 49 mi40 min E 1.9 G 1.9 47°F 1017.7 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frederick Municipal Airport, MD2 mi41 minSW 43.00 miFog/Mist54°F53°F100%1019 hPa

Wind History from FDK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE5E9SE6E5E8SE8Calm----E3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--SW4
1 day agoSW6SW7S5SW5CalmCalmSE3Calm----CalmN9E10
G14
E7NE8NE8NE6NE6NE5NE6E6E3E3SE8
2 days agoSW11SW10SW8--SW10SW10
G18
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------CalmCalmS3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW6SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:09 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:45 AM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:38 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:10 PM EDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.80.30.10.30.91.92.73.23.332.31.610.50.10.10.51.42.333.23.12.5

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, Washington, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:12 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:46 AM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:40 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:11 PM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.40.80.40.10.30.91.92.73.13.22.92.31.610.50.10.10.51.42.32.93.232.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.