Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cecilton, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:46PM Sunday November 19, 2017 4:45 PM EST (21:45 UTC) Moonrise 7:40AMMoonset 5:57PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 332 Pm Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.gale warning in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday afternoon...
Rest of this afternoon..W winds 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 3 ft...except around 1 ft near the mouth of the susquehanna.
Tonight..W winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 332 Pm Est Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build to our south through Monday. The high will move offshore Tuesday and a cold front will pass through late Tuesday night into Wednesday and high pressure is most likely to return for Wednesday night through thanksgiving day. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Tuesday through Wednesday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cecilton, MD
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location: 39.46, -75.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 192015
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
315 pm est Sun nov 19 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure over southeast canada will continue to lift to the
north and east tonight. Meanwhile, high pressure over texas
builds east through the gulf coast states and will move off the
mid-atlantic coast Monday night. A cold front approaches
Tuesday night and passes through the region on Wednesday. At the
same time, low pressure over the southeast approaches the mid-
atlantic and moves out to sea. High pressure builds through the
region to close out the week. A cold front passes through the
region Saturday, then low pressure will be over eastern canada
over next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Strong northwest flow continues across the area between an area
of low pressure to our northeast across southeastern canada,
and high pressure to our southwest across the lower mississippi
valley. This tight pressure gradient will continue through
tonight and will keep winds elevated overnight. However, wind
gusts will continue to diminish this evening, and may drop off
for many locations overnight.

With the northwest flow, clouds will continue to to be trapped
under inversion around 4,000-6,000 feet and remain across most
of the area. The thickest clouds cover will be from the i-95
corridor northward.

A short wave vorticity impulse and an area of enhanced low
level lift and moisture will move across the northern half of
the area later this evening and overnight. The combination of
the lift and moisture associated with the short wave vorticity
impulse may be enough that may help any lake effect streamers
within the northwest flow may make their way into portions of
our area overnight. There will be a slight chance of isolated
snow showers flurries later tonight for areas along and north of
the i-78 corridor. The poconos may have the better shot of
seeing any accumulation if any showers do occur.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
Monday is expected to be a fairly nice day. The pressure
gradient relaxes some during the day as high pressure builds to
our south, but there will remain a steady breeze through the
day. Also, winds will be gusty around 20-25 mph through much of
the day as well, but much less windy than Sunday.

There will remain some scattered cloud cover across the area,
especially in the morning hours and areas along and north of the
i-95 corridor. Skies are expected to begin to clear out by he
afternoon. No precipitation is expected through the day on
Monday as any lake effect streamers will get cut off or push
north of our area as the flow turns more west to southwesterly
through the day and moisture lift becomes limited as well.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
High pressure over the mid-atlantic moves out to sea Monday
night and will be off the mid-atlantic coast on Tuesday. Return
flow sets up, and highs on Tuesday will be about 3-5 degrees
above normal, topping off in the 40s in the poconos, otherwise
in the low to mid 50s north and west of i-95, and near 60s in
the DELMARVA and southern nj. S to SW winds increase Tuesday
afternoon to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

High pressure moves out to sea late Tuesday as a cold front
moves through the great lakes and ohio valley. Meanwhile, low
pressure develops over the gulf coast on Tuesday, and that low
moves off the southeast u.S. Coast Tuesday night. Tuesday night
through Wednesday morning, that low approaches the mid-atlantic
coast and drifts out to sea. That cold front will pass through
the region Wednesday afternoon. Based on latest model guidance,
will carry a swath of likely pops across southern de and
southeast nj, and chance pops for most areas south and east of
the fall line. Cooler temps will move into the poconos Wednesday
afternoon, but stronger CAA will not be underway until
Wednesday night.

Chilly high pressure builds through the region thanksgiving day
with temperatures 6-8 degrees below normal. Highs top off in
the mid and upper 30s in the poconos, otherwise in the low to
mid 40s.

High pressure reestablishes itself over the area Friday with
highs a few degrees warmer than Thursday.

Low pressure passing well north of the region will drag a cold
front through the region on Saturday, and then low pressure
remains over eastern canada through next weekend. Unsettled
weather possible.

Aviation 20z Sunday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR conditions expected. Slight chance of an isolated
snow shower overnight for abe and rdg, which may briefly lower
conditions if any showers occur. Winds remain gusty into this
evening, then gusts drop off overnight, although a steady breeze
will remain. High confidence inVFR conditions. Low confidence
in showers. High confidence in winds.

Monday...VFR conditions expected. Winds expected to increase
and become gusty again later in the morning and through the day.

High confidence inVFR conditions and winds.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday...VFR. SW winds 5-10 kt Monday
night increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt Tuesday
afternoon.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... MainlyVFR. Rain possible south
and east of i-95 Tuesday night through Wednesday morning with
MVFR or lower conditions. SW winds 5-10 kt become NW Wednesday
afternoon and increase to 10-20 kt.

Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR. NW winds gradually
diminishing. A storm system is currently expected to remain
offshore. Forecast confidence: medium to high.

Friday...VFR. NW winds 5-10 kt.

Marine
A gale warning is in effect for all areas through tonight.

Winds are expected to diminish through the night, and should
fall below gale force by daybreak Monday. Then small craft
advisory level conditions will likely continue through the day
Monday.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday night... Brief lull in sca
conditions late Monday night through Tuesday morning. Otherwise,
25-30 kt wind gusts, primarily on the ocean waters, may
possibly over lower de bay Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday... Lull in SCA conditions possible Wednesday morning.

Otherwise, winds shift to the NW and increase to 15-20 kt with
25-30 kt gusts.

Thursday through Friday... Sub-sca conditions expected.

Tides coastal flooding
There is a potential for blow out tides this evening, mainly
for the upper delaware bay. We will maintain the low water
advisory as it is with no extension in time, or expansion in
area.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 5 am est Monday for anz430-431-450>455.

Low water advisory until 7 pm est this evening for anz430.

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Robertson
short term... Robertson
long term... Mps
aviation... Robertson mps
marine... Robertson mps
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 6 mi45 min WSW 17 G 22 48°F 49°F1006.8 hPa (+2.7)
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 12 mi35 min WNW 16 G 23 47°F 1007.4 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 17 mi45 min 48°F 49°F1005.6 hPa (+2.6)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 17 mi45 min WNW 15 G 22 48°F 48°F1005.9 hPa (+2.7)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 26 mi45 min WNW 25 G 29 48°F 52°F1007.8 hPa (+2.7)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 28 mi45 min W 25 G 33 49°F 53°F1004.9 hPa (+2.5)
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 34 mi45 min 48°F 54°F1005.3 hPa (+2.6)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 34 mi75 min WNW 7 51°F 1005 hPa30°F
44043 - Patapsco, MD 35 mi35 min WNW 21 G 25 47°F 2 ft1008.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 39 mi45 min W 20 G 23 47°F 1007.9 hPa (+2.9)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 40 mi45 min NW 13 G 17 47°F 55°F1007.9 hPa (+2.6)
CPVM2 42 mi45 min 48°F 26°F
44063 - Annapolis 46 mi35 min NNW 21 G 29 48°F 1 ft1008.9 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 46 mi45 min 47°F 1008.1 hPa (+2.8)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 49 mi45 min NW 26 G 30 47°F 54°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD16 mi1.8 hrsWNW 15 G 2510.00 miA Few Clouds48°F28°F46%1006.4 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE21 mi54 minWNW 20 G 2310.00 miOvercast and Breezy49°F28°F46%1005.8 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S7S10SW9S16
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S3S7S5S7S11S6S8S8S9
2 days agoNW7
G16
NW10
G19
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W8W6
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W6W6W5W6SW5W5W5W4W3W5W4NW7NW5
G14
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G17
NW7NW6
G14
NW6Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Old Town Point Wharf, Maryland
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Old Town Point Wharf
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:48 AM EST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:39 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:57 AM EST     1.86 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:39 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:57 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 10:44 PM EST     2.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.421.410.60.60.711.41.81.91.71.30.80.30-00.20.71.31.92.52.82.9

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:02 AM EST     -1.65 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:19 AM EST     0.07 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:10 AM EST     1.99 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:39 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:42 AM EST     -0.09 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:10 PM EST     -2.25 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:00 PM EST     0.02 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:56 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:51 PM EST     2.25 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:21 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.4-1.6-1.5-1.2-0.611.721.81.2-0.8-1.6-2-2.2-2.1-1.8-1.3-0.11.52.12.221.50.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.