Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cecilton, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:22PM Sunday March 26, 2017 7:12 AM EDT (11:12 UTC) Moonrise 5:14AMMoonset 4:55PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 642 Am Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..E winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain with patchy drizzle this morning...then patchy drizzle with a chance of rain this afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy drizzle and rain likely.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 642 Am Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will drop south into the mid-atlantic tonight before returning north as a warm front Monday. A cold front is expected to cross the chesapeake bay region Tuesday night. Small craft advisories are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday behind the cold front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cecilton, MD
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location: 39.46, -75.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 260804
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
404 am edt Sun mar 26 2017

Synopsis
Canadian high pressure is our primary weather influence today.

Low pressure from the mississippi valley into the great lakes
on Monday will draw a warm front northward through most of our
region. The low will move into southern new england Tuesday
night pulling the frontal system off the coast. Canadian high
pressure will edge into our area Wednesday and Thursday.

Thereafter, low pressure in the ohio valley on Friday should
exit seaward from the mid altantic coast next Saturday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
High pressure across quebec/maine will move offshore today while
weak low pressure slowly moves to near chicago by evening. A
steady onshore flow will continue across our area thru the day.

This will promote an abundance of low clouds and fog along with
some light rain and drizzle at times. Pops will be greatest
across the northern areas where we have hi chc pops and the pops
taper off s/e to slgt chc across SRN de. Unlike Saturday,
temperatures will be below normal, with highs only in the 40s in
most areas, and a few low 50s over delmarva.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday/
The overall pattern will not change much tonight with high
pressure north/east and weak low pressure moving closer across
the great lakes. The onshore flow will continue and the chances
for more measurable rains will increase tonight. The best
chances will again be across the southern poconos, lehigh valley
and north nj where we will have categorical pops. The pops
decrease back to likely over the del valley and cntrl nj and the
chc pops over south nj and SRN de. Patchy fog and drizzle will
occur between the bouts of rain. Overall QPF will not be that
great, a few hundredths across the south and up to 1/4 inch up
north.

Long term /Monday through Saturday/
500 mb: a southern stream weakening short short wave crosses our
area Monday followed by a strengthening northern stream short wave
Tuesday, that closes off off east of new england Wednesday. The
next southern stream short wave probably passes to our south at
the end of the week. Westerly flow should follow for the weekend
before a trough tries to form in the mississippi valley early next
week.

Temperatures: calendar day averages Tuesday 10 to 15 degrees above
normal, near 5 above normal Wednesday, nearly normal Thursday
through Saturday.

Forecast basis: 50 50 blended 00z/26 gfs/nam MOS Monday-Tuesday,
then 00z/26 mexmos Tuesday night and thereafter wpc guidance
Wednesday-Saturday.

The dailies...

Monday... Despite winds turning south or southeast, the question
becomes how much warming can occur with a lack of mixing and
considerable cloud cover. Showers possible with the short wave
passage and waa, especially early in the day. Dense fog may
form along the warm front and along the water where the
dewpoints exceed the ssts in the 40s.

Tuesday... Dense fog potential early in the day. Now that we've had
almost a day of southerly flow, it may be easier to warm to the
guidance values. There should be a batch of showers associated
with a developing negative tilt northern stream short wave that
will shove all the moisture out to sea at night with a wind
shift to westerly. (ec and to an extent the ggem are 6-12 hrs
slower but sided with the previous fcst for continuity as well
as the 00z/26 GEFS which emphasizes low pressure tracking ewd
from northern pa to near pou by 23z/27.

Wednesday... Partly sunny and nice. Northwest wind gusty 20 to
30 mph.

Thursday... Fair. Northwest gusty 15 mph.

Friday... Mostly cloudy with a chance of precipitation, mostly rain
if it occurs. Lots of uncertainty on track of the event with a
wide ranging set of model solutions , inclusive of a little wet
snow potential near and N of i80. Low confidence and have
followed wpc guidance. GEFS confluence of the NRN and SRN stream
is across northern pa.

Saturday... Clearing after any pcpn ends in the morning. Below
average confidence on pcpn occurrence.

Aviation /08z Sunday through Thursday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Not a particularly great day for flying across the delaware
valley and surrounding areas with a prolonged onshore flow and
low clouds expected today and tonight. CIGS are lowering across
the area early this morning from N to S over the region behind
the cold front which crossed the area earlier. Ocnl drizzle and
fog will occur as the lower level moisture thickens up. Overall
confid in tafs as to when precip will occur is limited. NE to e
winds mostly 10 to 15 kts today and tonight.

Outlook...

Monday thru Monday night... Periods of MVFR/ifr in low clouds
and fog, with showers especially to start the day.VFR CIGS may
still develop Monday afternoon from around i-95 and points
southeast. South to southwest wind. Confidence: average
Tuesday... Ifr/lifr st/fog possible in the morning but would probably
becomeVFR CIGS in the afternoon, with a period of MVFR/ifr
conds possible in shower, some during the afternoon or evening.

There is some cape, some instability and a neg tilt short wave
so a TSTM is possible. Confidence: average
Wednesday...VFR. Northwest gusty 25 kt. Confidence: average
Thursday...VFR. Northwest gusty 15 kt. Confidence: average

Marine
We will keep the SCA flags as they are on the waters and just
raise the next segment with the 330 am issuance, instead of
waiting until 6 a.M. The onshore flow will continue today and a
gradual building of seas will continue. Scattered showers and
patchy fog expected.

Outlook...

Monday thru Wednesday... Seas may remain elevated Monday into
Tuesday, and the SCA may need to extended into this period.

Quite a bit of uncertainty with regards to winds and seas on
Wednesday, which may be near SCA thresholds. Confidence: average
Thursday... Sub-sca. Confidence: above average

Tides/coastal flooding
Onshore flow is expected through Monday morning, with easterly
wind gusts up to 25 mph at times today. Astronomical tides are
also increasing, coincident with the new moon this Monday, march
27. The estofs remains most aggressive of the guidance suite,
with near minor flooding for the sunrise Monday high tide along
the de and nj oceanfront, and it has has outperformed the other
guidance recently. Both the sit multi model review and GFS etss
are more conservative. Estofs trends for positive departures
(surge) appear to be lessening. The wind will also be trending
more parallel (southerly) to the shore by sunrise Monday, so any
minor tidal inundation flood risk remains a low confidence forecast
with no action at this time.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Monday for anz452-453.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Monday for anz450-451.

Synopsis... Drag 404
near term... O'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Drag 404
aviation... Drag/o'hara 404
marine... Drag/o'hara 404
tides/coastal flooding... 404


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 6 mi43 min ENE 8.9 G 14 44°F 45°F1027.1 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 17 mi43 min E 13 G 15 44°F 46°F1027.9 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 17 mi43 min 44°F 44°F1027.5 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 26 mi43 min ENE 5.1 G 8.9 45°F 47°F1027 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 28 mi43 min ENE 12 G 14 44°F 43°F1026.7 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 34 mi43 min 44°F 1027.6 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 34 mi58 min ENE 5.1 45°F 1027 hPa42°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 39 mi43 min ENE 12 G 13 45°F 1026.7 hPa
FSNM2 39 mi43 min ENE 15 G 17 45°F 1026.2 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 40 mi43 min E 9.9 G 13 46°F 47°F1026.5 hPa
CPVM2 42 mi43 min 47°F 43°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 46 mi43 min 47°F 1025.9 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 49 mi73 min E 18 G 19 46°F 45°F43°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD16 mi75 minE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy45°F39°F80%1027.4 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE21 mi22 minENE 1310.00 miOvercast44°F37°F79%1028.1 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmW4W6W8SW8W5SW11SW6S7SW5SW4W4CalmE13E11
G20
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1 day agoS43SW13
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S13SW11SW12S10SW6SW5SW5W3W4W4W4NW3CalmCalmW3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalm6CalmW54S9S9S9S9S8SW5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3S4S3

Tide / Current Tables for Old Town Point Wharf, Maryland
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Old Town Point Wharf
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Sun -- 03:22 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:12 AM EDT     2.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:29 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:48 PM EDT     2.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.510.60.40.40.71.21.72.12.32.21.81.30.80.30.10.10.30.81.422.32.42.2

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:05 AM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:29 AM EDT     2.08 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:07 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:22 PM EDT     -2.10 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:49 PM EDT     0.03 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:59 PM EDT     2.14 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:44 PM EDT     -0.06 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.9-1.7-1.2-0.41.11.7221.60.5-1.3-1.8-2.1-2-1.7-1.10.51.41.92.11.91.3-0.7-1.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.