Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cecilton, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 8:22PM Saturday May 27, 2017 11:49 AM EDT (15:49 UTC) Moonrise 6:37AMMoonset 9:26PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1031 Am Edt Sat May 27 2017
Rest of today..NE winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Scattered showers late this morning, then numerous showers with isolated tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Scattered showers.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tue..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1031 Am Edt Sat May 27 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move off the mid-atlantic coast today while a warm front lifts into the area. The front will stall out near the waters through Sunday before a cold front moves into the area Monday. The boundary will stall south of the waters for Tuesday and Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cecilton, MD
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location: 39.46, -75.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 271524
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1124 am edt Sat may 27 2017

Synopsis
As a front remains draped to our south today and tonight, weak
low pressure will track along it and exit off the mid atlantic
coast tonight into Sunday. Another low pressure system is
forecast to consolidate just north of the great lakes Monday and
then gradually shift eastward through Wednesday. An associated
cold front moves through our area later Monday, then a secondary
cold front arrives during Tuesday. High pressure builds from
the midwest to the carolinas Wednesday and Thursday, then closer
to our area Friday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Good weather across the area so far today will yield to increased
clouds and some showers as a short wave approaches the region.

The short wave is across WRN pa ATTM and should continue to slip
se through the afternoon and evening. Clouds have reached most
areas except ERN nj as of the late morning. Sct showers are
approaching from the west.

We are anticipating only isolated to scattered rain showers in
eastern pennsylvania and new jersey for this afternoon. There
appears to be a better chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms in northeastern maryland and delaware.

No changes were made for temperatures. Highs should be within a
couple degrees of normal for today, ranging from the upper 60s
in the elevated terrain to the middle 70s on the coastal plain.

Maximum temperatures are forecast to be in the middle and upper
60s right along the coast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
Lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible on the upper
delmarva this evening, then we are not expecting any additional
precipitation overnight. Partial clearing is anticipated, mainly
over eastern pennsylvania, and northern and central new jersey.

Another mid level short wave trough is expected to move from
the ozarks vicinity this morning to north carolina late tonight.

A weak surface low associated with the mid level trough is
forecast to pass off the coast between the virginia capes and
cape hatteras late tonight. It is not anticipated to have much
impact on our region.

The wind should be light tonight, with its direction favoring
southeast to northeast. Lows are expected to be mainly in the
50s.

Long term Sunday through Friday
Summary... Unsettled at times through early next week. After a
cooler Sunday especially closer to the coast, warmer
temperatures (close to where they should be this time of year)
are expected next week.

Synoptic setup... While a weak ridge slides across the northeast
Sunday, a closed low in south-central canada is forecast to
amplify south and eastward through the middle of next week
before weakening some Thursday and Friday. It is forecast to
remain centered well to our north, however cyclonic flow will be
in place along with several short waves revolving around it.

This will drive a couple of fronts eastward. The exact timing of
the embedded features are less certain given an amplified
pattern with a closed low involved, however a model consensus
now indicates that Sunday is drier than Monday. We used a
model continuity blend for Sunday through Monday night, then
blended in the 00z wpc guidance thereafter. Some adjustments
were then made following additional collaboration with our
neighboring offices.

For Sunday... A weak ridge is forecast to slide across the east,
however it should quickly move off the coast in the afternoon.

This will take weak surface high pressure to off the coast of
new england through the afternoon, meanwhile a front remains
draped to our south with weak low pressure slowly moving
offshore of the mid atlantic coast. A closed low centered just
north of the great lakes is forecast to expand south and east
some through Sunday. This will drive weak surface low pressure
up across the eastern great lakes, then it should consolidate
eventually north of the great lakes at night. The frontal zone
to our south should lift northward some, however weak surface
high pressure wedged southwestward will keep an onshore flow in
place and probably hold back the surface front. What appeared to
be an unsettled day may end up being dry, at least for the
daylight hours. A cold front or occluded front looks to arrive
later at night, and enough lift and moisture should result in
some showers and perhaps thunderstorms mainly at night as we
wait for convection to our west to arrive. The onshore flow
should result in a fair amount of clouds (perhaps low
clouds drizzle to start Sunday), and therefore temperatures are
anticipated to be held down at least some especially closer to
the coast.

For Monday and Tuesday... The center of a closed low is forecast
to slowly move across southeastern canada, mostly near james
bay. A short wave trough with an embedded stronger short wave
lifts up across the northeast Monday. This will be accompanied
by a weakening front, however enough lift and instability should
be present to result in some showers and thunderstorms Monday.

The greatest deep- layer shear is forecast to be to our south
Monday, however if enough instability can develop then an
isolated strong severe thunderstorm is possible across our
southern zones. The initial front may dissipate as it shifts
east Monday night into Tuesday, however a secondary front is
forecast to arrive during Tuesday. The forcing looks weaker for
Tuesday with the incoming secondary front, however cyclonic flow
combined with some height falls may allow for limited
convective development in the afternoon especially near the
higher terrain. We therefore have the highest pops on Monday,
then lower on Tuesday when isolated to perhaps scattered
convection is possible. We are anticipating warmer temperatures
ahead of the weak fronts.

For Wednesday and Thursday... As the center of the closed low
gradually shifts east more across eastern canada, it amplifies
across the northeast and northern mid atlantic for at least a
time. At least some guidance shows a pronounced short wave
rotating around the closed low late Wednesday into Thursday as
it crosses the eastern great lakes then slides across interior
new england. This may be accompanied by a surface trough
especially during Wednesday with potentially some convection
with it. There is still some resemblance of a surface trough on
Thursday, however much of the forcing is forecast to shift into
new england. Meanwhile, surface high pressure is forecast to
build from the midwest to the carolinas during this time frame.

Due to the cyclonic flow, daytime temperatures will be in the
70s to about 80 degrees each day. The pops were kept at low
chance or less.

For Friday... As the closed low gradually weakens and heads
toward the canadian maritimes, a lobe of vorticity may sharpen
the western part of the upper-level trough as is swings across
the great lakes and northeast. Weak high pressure is forecast to
be building much closer to our area from the west and south,
however another weak front or surface trough slides across our
area. Depending on the moisture available along with the
sharpness of the trough, some convection cannot be ruled out
especially in the afternoon and early evening. As of now, kept
slight chance pops.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Vfr conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. We
are anticipating an increase in cloud cover for the afternoon and
then partial clearing for tonight.

There is a chance of showers from this afternoon into the early
evening. The showers are expected to be isolated to scattered
around krdg, kabe, kttn, kphl, kpne and kacy. There is a
slightly better chance for showers around kilg and kmiv along
with a small potential for thunder. The impact of the showers is
anticipated to be limited.

A light west wind this morning is forecast to become variable
for this afternoon. The wind should favor the southeast to
northeast tonight at 8 knots or less.

Outlook...

Sunday... MVFR ifr possible to start due to low clouds and or
some fog, otherwise mainlyVFR during the remainder of the day.

Lower confidence regarding low clouds fog in the morning.

Ceilings should then lower to MVFR or ifr at night as some
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm moves through.

Monday... MVFR ifr conditions with some showers and
thunderstorms. Some improvement may occur in the afternoon and
at night as a cold front moves through. Some fog is possible
later at night. Lower confidence regarding timing of improving
conditions and timing coverage of showers thunder.

Tuesday and Wednesday... Some fog possible to start Tuesday,
otherwise generallyVFR through Wednesday. Some showers and
thunderstorms still possible mainly Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

Marine
The wind is forecast to back from the northwest and west to the
south and southeast today at speeds of 5 to 10 knots. The wind
should become east to northeast tonight around 10 knots.

Wave heights on our ocean waters will be mainly in the 2 to 3
foot range. Waves on delaware bay will be 2 feet or less.

Rip currents...

a light northwest to west wind this morning is expected to
become south to southeast this afternoon. Wave heights off the
coast should be 2 to 3 feet. As a result, we are anticipating a
low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for
today.

For Sunday, an onshore flow is forecast to strengthen some and
this may result in the rip current risk approaching moderate
especially for the coast of new jersey.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday... The conditions are anticipated to be
below small craft advisory criteria. East to southeast winds
however should increase Sunday with some gusts to around 20
knots at times. The seas are currently expected to be 4 feet or
less.

Some showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially later
Sunday night and Monday.

Tides coastal flooding
No coastal flooding is anticipated with this morning's high
tide. However, we will issue another coastal flood advisory for
tonight's high tide. It will be in effect for the coastal
counties of new jersey and delaware, and for the counties along
delaware bay and the lower delaware river up to near the
commodore barry bridge.

The guidance is suggesting the tonight's coastal flooding will
be greater than that on Friday evening and a bit less than what
occurred on Thursday evening. The loss of the offshore wind
should allow some water to return back toward the coast, so the
guidance seems reasonable.

We will continue to keep an eye on Sunday evening's high tide
as well since the surface wind is expected to be onshore at that
time and the astronomical tides will remain high.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... Coastal flood advisory from 8 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Sunday for njz012>014-020>027.

Coastal flood advisory from 11 pm this evening to 3 am edt
Sunday for njz016.

De... Coastal flood advisory from 8 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Sunday for dez002>004.

Coastal flood advisory from 11 pm this evening to 3 am edt
Sunday for dez001.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Gorse
near term... Po iovino
short term... Iovino
long term... Gorse
aviation... Gorse iovino
marine... Gorse iovino
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 6 mi50 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 68°F 68°F1012.9 hPa (-0.4)
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 12 mi40 min NW 1.9 G 3.9 69°F 1012.3 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 17 mi50 min 68°F 66°F1012.5 hPa (+0.0)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 17 mi50 min Calm G 1.9 69°F 65°F1012.9 hPa (+0.0)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 26 mi50 min W 1.9 G 1.9 67°F 66°F1013 hPa (-0.4)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 28 mi50 min NW 6 G 7 66°F 65°F1012.7 hPa (+0.3)
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 34 mi50 min 67°F 1012.2 hPa (+0.0)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 34 mi95 min WNW 2.9 69°F 1013 hPa55°F
44043 - Patapsco, MD 35 mi40 min SE 3.9 G 3.9 66°F 1013.4 hPa
FSNM2 39 mi50 min Calm G 1 69°F 1012.6 hPa (-0.3)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 39 mi50 min S 1 G 1.9 67°F 1012.8 hPa (-0.4)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 40 mi50 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 69°F 67°F1012.5 hPa (+0.0)
CPVM2 42 mi50 min 67°F 58°F
44063 - Annapolis 46 mi40 min SE 3.9 G 5.8 66°F 1012.9 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 46 mi50 min 68°F 1012.4 hPa (-0.5)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 49 mi50 min SE 2.9 G 2.9 65°F 65°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD16 mi1.9 hrsN 310.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F54°F64%1013.8 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE21 mi59 minW 410.00 miA Few Clouds71°F54°F55%1013 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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NW9NW6W6W4CalmCalmW4CalmW4W3W3CalmCalmCalmN5N3NE4
1 day agoSE5CalmW7SW8W3E3NE4CalmSW12SE5SW4SW5W8W5SW4SW3CalmSW4W6W8W7W7W10
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2 days agoE8E6E8E6SE4SE4E7SE5SE6SE8SE8E11E12
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Tide / Current Tables for Old Town Point Wharf, Maryland
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Old Town Point Wharf
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Sat -- 04:49 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:45 AM EDT     4.02 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:52 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.31.91.30.80.40.30.61.11.82.73.43.943.73.12.41.71.10.60.50.71.11.72.2

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:25 AM EDT     -2.51 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:09 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:19 AM EDT     2.50 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:57 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:14 PM EDT     -1.66 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:13 PM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:20 PM EDT     1.94 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:36 PM EDT     -0.10 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.8-2.2-2.5-2.5-2.1-1.6-0.61.42.12.52.421.4-0.3-1.3-1.6-1.6-1.2-0.511.61.91.81.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.