Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chesapeake City, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:18PM Friday March 22, 2019 1:52 AM EDT (05:52 UTC) Moonrise 8:22PMMoonset 7:19AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 138 Am Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Overnight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 1 ft... Building to 3 ft late. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Waves 3 ft. Numerous showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 kt...becoming n. Waves 1 ft or less... Building to 2 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
ANZ500 138 Am Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will strengthen as it moves off to the northeast tonight through Friday night. High pressure will return for the weekend before low pressure and its associated cold front impact the waters early next week. A gale warning may be needed for portions of the waters late Friday night into Saturday morning. A small craft advisory will likely be needed later Saturday into Saturday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chesapeake City, MD
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location: 39.5, -75.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 220431
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1231 am edt Fri mar 22 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will strengthen as it moves northeast through the
mid- atlantic region tonight and into new england on Friday.

Behind the low, a cold front will cross our region on Friday.

Over the weekend, the low will move farther away into the
canadian maritimes, while high pressure will build in from the
great lakes on Saturday and then shift to our south on Sunday. A
cold front is forecast to cross the area on Monday, followed by
high pressure for much of the remainder of next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
The center of low pressure is currently over delaware
bay extreme southern nj and will continue to lift to the
northeast through daybreak Friday. The heaviest of the rain
seems to be winding down, but with all the rain that fell across
the region, it will not take much additional rainfall to result
in street and small stream flooding. Will keep flood watch up
through the late night hours. Some snow is possible across the
highest elevations of the southern poconos late.

There may be some locally dense fog across southern nj as the
low passes overhead.

Short term 6 am this morning through Sunday
The low will continue to deepen through Friday as it moves ne
through new england. Main concern for Friday and beyond will be
strong winds on the backside of the system due to the strong
pressure gradient, deep mixing, and cold advection pattern.

Friday morning may end up mainly dry before a strong shortwave
associated with the main upper level low drops S E into the
area. This will result in scattered showers redeveloping that
could continue to be mixed with some snow across higher
elevations in the southern poconos. Otherwise main focus will be
on the winds. Winds will ramp up through the day and expect by
mid to late afternoon W NW winds will be 15 to 25 with gusts of
at least 30 to 40 mph. Winds will likely be even stronger for a
time Friday night. Highs Friday will range from the upper 30s to
mid 40s over the southern poconos and NW nj to the upper 40s to
low 50s elsewhere.

Friday night... Secondary cold front crosses the area early in the
evening potentially resulting in a surge of stronger wind gusts.

Profiles indicate 40 to 50 knot winds in the boundary layer but
limiting factor for full mixing will be loss of heating with the
diurnal cycle. Nevertheless, still think there will be a good
potential for wind gusts at least 35 to 45 mph to be realized across
much of the area so wind advisory may end up be needed. Otherwise,
except for some scattered snow showers continuing in the southern
poconos conditions should become mainly dry. Lows by Saturday
morning will range from the 20s across the southern poconos and nw
nj to the low to mid 30s elsewhere.

For Saturday, the low pulls away into the canadian maritimes with
strong NW winds continuing in its wake as high pressure moves into
the ohio valley keeping a tight gradient over the area. Otherwise it
will be dry but seasonably cool under mainly sunny skies.

High pressure moves in for Saturday night and Sunday resulting in
winds finally diminishing with temperatures returning to
seasonable by Sunday afternoon under continuing mainly clear
skies.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
This extended forecast period will start out with a fairly strong
cold front passage on Monday, followed by canadian high pressure for
Tuesday through Thursday. On Monday a shortwv trof is forecast to
move east into the ohio valley with moisture spreading ahead of it
across the mid-atlantic region. Both the latest GFS and ecmwf
are showing precip spreading across the area on Monday and
continuing into Monday night in association with this feature
and with the frontal passage.

Temperatures ahead of the front on Monday should be warm enough for
rain everywhere, but fairly strong cold advection behind the front
may result in precip changing to snow from north to south Monday
night. No significant snow accumulation is expected at this time.

Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday look to be a bit below normal,
but may moderate to near normal again by Thursday.

Aviation 06z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Through tonight... Low pressure will intensify as it moves
northeast through coastal de and nj tonight. CIGS will
generally range between low MVFR and ifr. Vsbys will lower in
areas of heavier rainfall. Precip should end from south to north
during the early overnight, but CIGS will remain mostly ifr
overnight. Winds will veer from ene to NW with the passage of
the low
Friday... Conditions should improve toVFR by mid-morning but nw
winds will likely gust 25 to 30 kt during day. Brief local MVFR
conditions are possible in scattered showers.

Outlook...

Friday night and Saturday...VFR conditions expected but NW winds
will continue to gust 30 to 35 kt.

Saturday night through Sunday night...VFR conditions with winds
generally 10 kt or less.

Monday and Monday night... MVFR countdowns possible in areas of
rain or snow showers. Winds around 10 kt shifting from SW to n
on Monday.

Tuesday...VFR conditions with NE winds around 10 kt.

Marine
A gale warning remains in effect for all waters, though there is
a lull in the gales that should last into daybreak, then
northwest winds will crank up once again to above gale force
through Friday.

Outlook...

Friday night and Saturday... Northwesterly gales continue for
much of this period, but wind speeds should gradually drop off
late Saturday into Saturday night.

Sunday into Monday... Winds and seas are expected to be below
small craft advisory conditions.

Monday night and Tuesday... Northeasterly winds are likely to
increase starting Monday night and continuing into Tuesday. Seas
should subsequently increase as well.

Hydrology
During the last 24 hours, forecast models have been trending
upward with their qpf, especially across SE pa. The 72 hour
precip forecast, out of the marfc, now has a large swath of 1.50
to 3.00 inches of rainfall across the southern poconos, berks
county, the lehigh valley, the philly suburbs, and NW nj.

As a result, our river stream forecast points are responding.

We now have about a dozen gages in at least caution action
stage. While we will see a significant response across nj, SE pa
has a greater chance to see water over banks. Across the
intricate passaic basin in northern nj, there are about 5 gages
now forecast to climb above caution stage. If the heaviest
rainfall expands east into this area, minor flooding would then
be expected. The millstone river in the raritan basin could also
see some minor flooding.

With the heaviest rainfall expected across SE pa, this is where we
are seeing the most significant rises. Portions of the schuylkill
and brandywine are now expected to flood. The smaller creeks and
streams across SE pa and across northern delaware will also see
levels approach or exceed bankfull. Additionally, the perkiomen
creek, the neshaminy creek and portions of the lehigh system,
especially the headwaters of the little lehigh need to be monitored.

In terms of timing, the heaviest rains will fall between 18z today
and 06z tonight. Poor drainage and low-lying flooding, like it
always does, will initiate first. That will start to develop this
afternoon. This rain runoff will move into fast responding creeks
this evening. That water will then bleed into the larger rivers and
streams overnight.

If the rainfall and the flooding comes to fruition, I would
expected river flooding to persist across SE pa through at least
Friday. The passaic basin in nj responds more slowly. Any
flooding that might develop there will be slower to do so and
most likely last into the weekend.

Tides coastal flooding
No changes to the coastal flood warnings advisories have been
made with the general expectation that widespread minor coastal
flooding will occur with this evening's high tide. Local
moderate flooding may be observed in coastal locations of
middlesex and monmouth counties, though stevens institute
ensemble guidance is indicating the more likely outcome is for
levels just under moderate flood stage in most locations.

In the advisory area of coastal new jersey and delaware, concern
is increasing for somewhat higher levels than guidance is
currently suggesting. Winds have been stronger than expected
this afternoon, with gale-force gusts occurring on delaware bay
and the atlantic waters for the past couple of hours. Models
have trended a little higher with projected gauge levels this
evening, and this makes sense owing to recent conditions. Though
widespread minor flooding is the more likely outcome in these
areas, some spotty instances of moderate flooding cannot be
ruled out. Minor flooding is also expected on the tidal
delaware river overnight.

Additionally, the slowing trend of the associated coastal low
with today's model runs leads to somewhat increased potential of
another round of minor flooding for Friday morning's high tide,
especially on the new jersey coast. If current trends continue,
additional advisories for this high tide will be required.

Strong offshore flow will commence on Friday, which will end
the coastal flooding threat for subsequent high tides.

No flooding is expected on the upper eastern shore of
chesapeake bay.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Flood watch until 6 am edt early this morning for paz060>062-
070-071-101>106.

Coastal flood advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for
paz070-071-106.

Nj... Flood watch until 6 am edt early this morning for njz007>010-
012-015>019.

Coastal flood advisory until 1 am edt early this morning for
njz020>027.

Coastal flood advisory until 2 am edt early this morning for
njz016.

Coastal flood advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for
njz015-017>019.

Coastal flood warning until 2 am edt early this morning for
njz012>014.

De... Flood watch until 6 am edt early this morning for dez001.

Coastal flood advisory until 1 am edt early this morning for
dez002>004.

Coastal flood advisory until 2 am edt early this morning for
dez001.

Md... Flood watch until 6 am edt early this morning for mdz008-012.

Marine... Gale warning until 6 pm edt Saturday for anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... Amc
near term... Fitzsimmons johnson mps
short term... Fitzsimmons
long term... Amc
aviation... Amc mps
marine... Amc johnson mps
hydrology...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 6 mi59 min N 8 G 11 48°F 48°F996.2 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 18 mi53 min NNE 19 G 22 47°F 42°F995.3 hPa (-3.7)
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 19 mi59 min 994.8 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 26 mi53 min N 18 G 21 48°F 48°F996.9 hPa (-1.9)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 32 mi53 min N 6 G 8 48°F 45°F994.2 hPa (-3.1)
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 34 mi53 min 48°F 46°F995.1 hPa (-4.7)
FSNM2 37 mi59 min NW 25 G 29 46°F 996.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 38 mi53 min N 14 G 22
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 38 mi53 min NW 20 G 22 47°F 997.1 hPa (-1.9)
CPVM2 43 mi53 min 47°F 47°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 46 mi53 min 47°F 996.9 hPa (-1.2)

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE21 mi62 minNNE 17 G 224.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist48°F46°F93%996 hPa

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Last 24hr------------------NE8NE10NE10NE12CalmNE5E3N5NE10E10--NE14NE12
G23
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1 day ago------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4S10S10SE10SE10--SE10NE9E12E12
2 days ago------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmN6NE3NE6NE7S8S10S12SE10S7S8S5

Tide / Current Tables for Old Town Point Wharf, Maryland
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Old Town Point Wharf
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Fri -- 05:31 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:37 AM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:08 PM EDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.11.50.90.40.100.30.91.62.32.72.72.41.81.10.4-0.1-0.3-0.20.30.91.62.1

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:34 AM EDT     -2.20 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:05 AM EDT     0.10 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:02 AM EDT     2.37 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 12:12 PM EDT     -0.09 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:04 PM EDT     -2.09 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:33 PM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:21 PM EDT     2.21 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1-1.8-2.1-2.2-1.9-1.4-0.41.52.12.42.21.70.7-1.3-1.9-2.1-2-1.6-111.82.22.11.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (1,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.