Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fallston, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:46PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 2:00 PM EST (19:00 UTC) Moonrise 2:08PMMoonset 2:33AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 1237 Pm Est Tue Dec 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
This afternoon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Fri..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 1236 Pm Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build into the region and linger through Wednesday. The next system will approach from the southeastern united states late Thursday and cross the region Friday. Gale conditions are possible Thursday night through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fallston, MD
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location: 39.5, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 181448 aaa
afdlwx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
948 am est Tue dec 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will be in place through Wednesday. A large area
of low pressure will impact the region Thursday and Friday.

Surface high pressure will move back towards the region by late
Saturday.

Near term through tonight
Tranquil weather today as high pressure builds from the west.

Breezy NW winds will gradually diminish through the day.

Maxt will be in the mid 40s.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
The flow aloft will turn southwesterly later this evening and
tonight, and this will likely lead to some high clouds moving
across the region. However, these should be thin enough to allow
for significant cooling tonight in what will otherwise be a
great radiational cooling setup given surface high directly
overhead. Lows will range from near 20f in the sheltered valleys
to the low 30s in the urban centers and along the larger bodies
of water.

The surface high will shift eastward and offshore on Wednesday,
allowing for the return of southerly flow. Some high clouds will
be around, but partly-mostly sunny skies are still expected.

Temperatures will moderate with highs from the mid 40s to low
50s.

A low pressure system will then organize in the deep south, with
warm air advection increasing significantly out ahead of it
over the mid- atlantic states Wednesday night. This will lead to
increasing and thickening clouds with lows in the 30s.

The low will then move towards the carolinas and strengthen
during the day Thursday with strong southerly flow and warm air
advection occurring aloft. Precipitable water values are
currently modeled to surge to around 1.25" by 00z Friday, which
would be near the MAX moving average for the date at iad per
spc sounding climatology. This will lead to widespread rain
overtaking the region, especially in the afternoon and evening
hours, and persisting through the night. By Friday morning,
areal average amounts will likely range from 1-1.5", which may
lead to incidents of flooding given wet antecedent conditions.

Long term Friday through Monday
On Friday, a strong upper level 500 mb trough will dig down into the
southeastern united states and the gulf of mexico. The exact
location of this trough differs between the 00z GFS and euro. The
european model has a stronger trough that remains further westward
putting our region in a favorable area for moisture transportation.

European solution would argue for the potential for some severe
weather on Friday as pw rise above 1.5 inches along with strong
850mb winds above 30 knots. The GFS keeps the upper level trough
slightly further eastward limiting the amount of moisture that makes
it into our region. The 500mb trough is weaker in the GFS run and
would lower pw's and focus closer to the chesapeake and the coast.

Both models agree a surface low will track northward on Friday
bringing widespread rain to the region. As most of the region
remains pretty saturated due to the previous rain this past weekend,
flooding will be possible on Friday due to sustained heavy
rain. Wpc has the potential for our region to see one to three
inches of rain through Saturday morning.

Saturday into Sunday, the surface low pressure system will move out
of our region early on Saturday. Some showers will linger into the
morning periods on Saturday especially to our northeast. A westerly
flow will form behind the surface frontal passage leading to upslope
induced showers over higher elevations. Some of these elevated areas
may see a mix of snow and rain showers. Upslope induced
precipitation will be possible over the western mountains through
early Monday. Day time highs will be considerable cooler Saturday
and Sunday in the the low to mid 40s with overnight temps in the 30s.

On Monday, a weak upper level disturbance will move through the
region. The models are diverging on how much moisture this system
will carry into our region. The european model is the wettest
solution with precipitation over the western mountains and along the
mason-dixon line. The GFS keeps precipitation focused over the
higher elevations. Both models agree that precipitation will occur
mainly during the morning periods on Monday. High pressure is
forecast to build into our region during the afternoon periods on
Monday and linger through the later parts of next week.

Aviation 15z Tuesday through Saturday
Vfr is expected through at least Wednesday night as high
pressure moves overhead. Gusty northwest winds to about 20 knots
are expected into early this afternoon before waning by later
today. Potential then increases for MVFR ifr during the day
Thursday and will be near certain for Thursday night as rain and
low stratus develop and move overhead. Low level wind shear will
also become a concern by Thursday night as southerly flow
increases aloft.

On Friday, rain will be likely with low visibilities and cloud bases
possible. Winds will be mainly out of the south to southeast. There
will be the potential for some convection depending on the
exact track of the system. Sub-vfr conditions likely.

Saturday, rain will move out of the region early in the day. Low
clouds look to clear out with higher clouds lingering through
Saturday. Stronger winds over 25 knots will be possible. Sub-vfr
conditions will be possible early on Saturday.

Marine
Sca continues for all waters through 1 pm today, with locations
aside from the middle and upper tidal potomac continuing until 6
pm this evening. Gusty northwest winds 20-28 knots are forecast
through the morning hours, before gradually slackening during
the afternoon hours as high pressure builds into the region.

Sub-sca winds then return tonight through Thursday morning, with
the next possible SCA coming Thursday afternoon and Thursday
night as the next system approaches the waters.

On Friday, rain will be likely with winds out of the southeast.

There will be the potential for some gusty showers thunderstorms.

Winds will be strong out of south to southeast. Winds will
likely be over 18 knots which means a small craft advisory will
likely be needed on Friday.

Saturday, rain will move out early in the day and winds will become
westerly. Strong winds in the boundary layer suggest another small
craft advisory will likely be needed on Saturday.

Hydrology
River levels are now falling on the potomac river but minor
flooding will continue through today.

Attention will then turn to the end of the week with widespread
1-2" of rain likely Thursday and Friday. With wet antecedent
conditions, incidents of small stream and urban flooding are
possible Thursday evening into Friday, with potential for
mainstem river flooding Friday and Saturday.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels have crested at dc waterfront and georgetown with a
continual recession expected through today. A coastal flood
warning remains in effect through 1 pm today.

Climate
Rainfall totals continue to creep upward, with baltimore md and
washington dc setting the annual record already. Here are the
current rankings for wettest year on record (through december
17th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 64.22 inches (2018)
2. 61.33 inches (1889)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 68.82 inches (2018)
2. 62.66 inches (2003)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 64.36 inches (2018)
3. 59.05 inches (1972)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Coastal flood advisory until noon est today for dcz001.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for
anz530>534-537>543.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for anz535-
536.

Synopsis... Mm
near term... Lfr
short term... Mm
long term... Jmg
aviation... Lfr jmg
marine... Lfr jmg
hydrology...

tides coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 17 mi31 min N 11 G 16 43°F 46°F1019.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 19 mi31 min WNW 11 G 15 42°F 1019.8 hPa
FSNM2 19 mi37 min WNW 14 G 17 42°F 1019.2 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 24 mi31 min NW 8.9 G 11 42°F 43°F1019.8 hPa
CPVM2 35 mi31 min 43°F 22°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 36 mi31 min 43°F 1019.6 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 37 mi31 min NW 12 G 16 42°F 41°F1019.2 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 42 mi61 min WNW 13 G 16 42°F 43°F1020.8 hPa (-0.8)19°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 49 mi31 min NW 17 G 21 41°F 38°F1019 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 49 mi31 min 41°F 41°F1018.8 hPa

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD12 mi76 minW 13 G 2110.00 miA Few Clouds45°F24°F46%1020.3 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD16 mi67 minno data mi45°F19°F35%1020.4 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD18 mi72 minN 09.00 miFair43°F19°F39%1020 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD23 mi67 minNW 810.00 miA Few Clouds45°F21°F39%1019.8 hPa

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW9
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2 days agoNE12NE9NE4NE4NE5NE6NE6NE7NE10
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N5N4CalmNE8NE6N7NE9N9N4N5N4N6NW6NW8

Tide / Current Tables for Bowley Bar, Middle River, Maryland
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Bowley Bar
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:32 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:55 AM EST     0.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:25 AM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:59 PM EST     1.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:37 PM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.70.910.90.70.40.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-00.20.60.91.11.21.10.90.70.50.30.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Battery Point, Gunpowder River, Maryland
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Battery Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:32 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:08 AM EST     0.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:52 AM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:12 PM EST     1.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 11:04 PM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.70.910.90.70.50.20-0.2-0.2-0.10.10.50.81.11.21.110.80.60.40.30.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.