Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fallston, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:22PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 12:03 AM EDT (04:03 UTC) Moonrise 4:08AMMoonset 6:01PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 1032 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday night...
Rest of tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night. Showers likely with a chance of tstms after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely in the morning. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1032 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move up the coast near the delmarva tonight. Another area of low pressure will move through the area Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold front will cross the waters late Thursday. High pressure will arrive by Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday and again on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fallston, MD
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location: 39.5, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 240139
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
939 pm edt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will move northeast off the DELMARVA overnight.

Upper-level low pressure will move toward the area Wednesday
through Thursday, and then depart on Friday. High pressure will
move across the area Friday night into Saturday, with a warm
front approaching on Sunday.

Near term through Wednesday
Latest surface analysis indicates that high pressure remains
over the northern mid-atlantic this evening. A stationary front
is draped southeast of the area. Dry air associated with the
high pressure is continues slowing northward progress and
intensity of rain, but not as much as many models expected it
to. With the second trough moving northeast into the area and
inducing cyclogenesis along the coast, overall chance of rain
appears higher than guidance has suggested. While heavy rain
resulting in any flooding concerns is certainly not expected,
widespread rain looks more and more likely overnight, so will
likely up pops through at least 9z to likely with the next
scheduled grid update in about an hour.

With saturated low levels, fog development is still possible.

Lows will be in the 50s.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
Most of the daytime hours of Wednesday will be dry as the
coastal low moves away and the wedged high pressure continues to
exert influence. A few showers or drizzle may linger through the
day in the allegheny highlands. It will be cloudy across the
entire area with temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Meanwhile, dynamic low pressure system will be winding up over
the ohio valley. Strong low level jet moisture transport will
overspread the area Wednesday night, resulting in a widespread
moderate to perhaps locally heavy rainfall. With strong theta-e
advection aloft, there may be a few embedded rumbles of thunder
as well. If any areas in the mountains overperform on rainfall
tonight, it could set the stage for minor flooding concerns, but
will have to let the preceding events play out first. Otherwise
the system is progressive as the dry slot works northward
Thursday morning, with amounts from this wave ranging from 0.5
to 1.5 inches.

Jet energy will be moving off to the east on Thursday as upper
level low moves overhead and takes on a negative tilt. Surface
low looks to develop over northern parts of the area in response
to the forcing. The amount of clearing and destabilization is
in question, and if so, how much would overlap with the
departing shear. So while showers will be probable by afternoon,
the amount and intensity of thunderstorms is uncertain. Rain
chances will diminish Thursday night as low occluded front move
to the east.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
Closed upper level low will continue to move NE away from new
england on Friday. Energy behind the upper trough may enhance
some showers over our area. Conditions dry out into Friday night
and Saturday as high pressure briefly builds over.

Shortwave trough and an approaching warm front will bring
rounds of showers Saturday evening and into Monday, as the front
stalls near or over our cwa. Cold front approaches from the
west Monday into Tuesday keeping the unsettled weather
conditions over our area.

High temperatures will be near normal mainly in the 70s and low
80s... Some 60s at higher elevations.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
MVFR CIGS have returned as wave of low pressure moves along the
coast. Rainfall tonight will be generally light in nature.

Considerable uncertainty still exists about tonight regarding
flight cats, thought it is diminishing. While MOS guidance
suggests ifr CIGS develop, actual model rh fields show dry air
advecting in from the northeast, causing CIGS to lift. However,
overall guidance appears to be overdoing the dry air somewhat.

Have trended tafs more pessimistic.

Break in low clouds and precip during the day Wednesday,
although remaining ovc. Next wave of rain will arrive Wednesday
night and be moderate to possibly heavy at times. Ifr or lower
conditions seem likely. Llws may be an issue with southeasterly
winds at surface and southerly aloft. A break in rain is
possible Thursday morning in addition to rising cigs, but
additional showers and perhaps thunderstorms will occur Thursday
afternoon. Precipitation exits Thursday evening but CIGS may be
slow to lift.

Periods of sub-vfr conditions possible on Friday, becomingVFR
Friday night into Saturday. Then sub-vfr conditions return
Saturday evening and into Sunday with rounds of showers moving
through our region. Gusts as high as 22 kt possible on Friday.

Marine
Low clouds will result in poor momentum transfer though the
midweek. Coastal low pressure will move past the delmarva
tonight. Extended small craft advisories for the mid bay and
lower potomac through 9 am with expected slower progression of
low pressure wave. Southeast winds increase Wednesday night in
response to low pressure in the ohio valley. Mainted a small
craft advisory for larger waters of the bay and lower potomac
where mixing should be better, although moderate rain may
eventually limit this potential. There may be a lull on Thursday
morning, but winds may increase again later in the day as low
pressure passes by to the north.

Scattered showers expected on Friday with breezy conditions,
gusting as high as 22 kt, which would require a small craft
advisory. Conditions dry out Friday night into Saturday before
other rounds of rain move through into Sunday. Winds will be
below the SCA threshold Saturday and Sunday.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels are less than a half foot above astronomical
normals this afternoon. However... Coastal low pressure will
strengthen the onshore flow a little this evening... So anomalies
will increase a bit during this time. The flow should be light
enough for water levels to remain below minor flooding
thresholds for most areas... But it will be close for sensitive
areas such as straits point in st marys county and annapolis in
anne arundel county. Anomalies will have to be monitored through
this evening.

The low will move away from the area late tonight into
Wednesday... But deep low pressure will cross the area Thursday,
with southeast winds picking up Wednesday night. The early
Thursday morning tide cycle will need to be monitored, as the
preponderance of evidence suggests that minor flooding is
likely. Minor flooding is possible during the high tide cycles
Thursday afternoon through Thursday night... But confidence is
lower since the wind is expected to turn west to southwest.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 pm Wednesday to 6 am edt Thursday
for anz530>534-537>543.

Small craft advisory until 9 am edt Wednesday for anz533-534-
537-541-543.

Synopsis... Ads
near term... Ads
short term... Ads
long term... Imr
aviation... Ads imr
marine... Ads imr
tides coastal flooding... Bjl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 17 mi45 min ESE 8 G 8.9 62°F 69°F1007.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 19 mi45 min E 6 G 8 62°F 1007.7 hPa
FSNM2 19 mi45 min ENE 8 G 8.9 61°F 1007.6 hPa
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 23 mi43 min NNE 3.9 G 5.8 62°F 1007.8 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 24 mi45 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1 59°F 65°F1008.1 hPa
44043 - Patapsco, MD 25 mi43 min E 9.7 G 12 62°F 1008.3 hPa
CPVM2 35 mi45 min 62°F 54°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 36 mi45 min 62°F 1007.2 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 37 mi43 min ENE 9.7 G 12 62°F 1007.3 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 37 mi51 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 60°F 68°F1008.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 42 mi63 min ENE 8.9 G 9.9 61°F 65°F
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 49 mi45 min 61°F 66°F1007.7 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 49 mi45 min E 5.1 G 8 62°F 65°F1008.1 hPa

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD12 mi72 minENE 410.00 miLight Rain61°F59°F94%1008.5 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD16 mi69 minno data mi64°F61°F90%1008.2 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD18 mi4.1 hrsN 07.00 miLight Rain63°F60°F91%1010.1 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD23 mi69 minENE 410.00 miOvercast62°F59°F90%1007.8 hPa

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmW5NW3NW3NW3CalmNW5CalmCalmCalmNE3NE6N3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3
1 day agoE6E4E3CalmE3E5E4E4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE7E4E4E4CalmE6E5E5CalmE3CalmE5SE4E5E8SE8E8E7E8E9E7E7E8E7

Tide / Current Tables for Bowley Bar, Middle River, Maryland
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Bowley Bar
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:06 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:45 AM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:50 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:01 PM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.30.611.41.82.12.221.71.410.70.40.40.50.81.11.31.41.31.10.80.5

Tide / Current Tables for Pond Point, Bush River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Pond Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:54 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:46 AM EDT     2.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:38 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:02 PM EDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.20.30.611.41.82.12.121.71.30.90.60.30.30.50.711.31.41.310.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.