Sunday, June24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fallston, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:38PM Sunday June 24, 2018 12:40 PM EDT (16:40 UTC) Moonrise 4:25PMMoonset 2:25AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 1032 Am Edt Sun Jun 24 2018
Rest of today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1032 Am Edt Sun Jun 24 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure moving eastward across new england will send a cold front south across the waters this evening. High pressure will build from southern ontario across the eastern great lakes toward the mid- atlantic Monday into Tuesday, then move into the atlantic Tuesday night as a developing warm front approaches from the south. The warm front should move north into pennsylvania Wednesday as low pressure moves from the central plains to the great lakes. A cold front will follow Thursday as the low moves across the northeastern u.s. Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday into Wednesday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fallston, MD
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location: 39.5, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 241426
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1026 am edt Sun jun 24 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure moving eastward across new england will send a cold
front south across the mid-atlantic tonight. High pressure will
build from southern ontario across the eastern great lakes toward
the region Monday into Tuesday, then move into the atlantic Tuesday
night as a developing warm front approaches from the south. The warm
front should move north into pennsylvania Wednesday as low pressure
moves from the central plains to the great lakes. A cold front will
follow Thursday as the low moves across the northeastern u.S. The
front will likely fall apart as it crosses. A bermuda high will then
establish itself over the western atlantic next weekend.

Near term through tonight
Skies have cleared over some areas this morning with highest
cloud cover over higher elevations, the i-95 corridor and
central southern md. Patchy fog is no longer and issue and a
few showers have been moving between dc and near charlottesville
early this morning but have been dissipating in the last hour.

A front is stalled over our CWA this morning with light flow
over our area.

Low pressure will move offshore from new england today, which in
conjunction with a mid-upper level trough axis, will drag a surface
cold front across the region, mainly during the very late afternoon
to evening hours. South of this boundary, it will be warm and
unstable once again... Especially across central virginia and
southern maryland where there is a strong probability of sbcape
greater than 1000 j kg. (some hiresw solutions suggest MUCAPE up to
2000 j kg. However, there is considerable spread as well, as
evidenced by 3-hour sref MUCAPE and MLCAPE plumes. Sufficient bulk
shear effective 30-40 kt) exists as well. However, lapse rates
marginal (5.0-5.5 c km), and westerly flow provides some inhibition,
not to mention the lack of well-defined convergence. Recent rap hrrr
runs remain the least robust solutions, with minimal thunderstorm
development.

Do believe that scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon,
especially late in the day in vicinity of the subtle surface
boundary and mid-level positive vorticity as they encounter the pool
of unstable air. It is plausible that a strong storm or two could
form. However, there are enough mitigating factors and spread in
model output to preclude more than scattered coverage of
thunderstorms, and no enhanced wording at this time.

Any storms that do develop should move southeast of southern
maryland by early this evening as the cold front crosses the
forecast area. Cool dry advection will infiltrate overnight.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
Lower dewpoints (lower-mid 60s) will truly be realized after mixing
resumes Monday morning. Canadian high pressure will reside across
the northeastern united states, providing northwest flow... Becoming
northeast by Monday evening. Certainly, more Sun and lower
temperatures than this weekend. Highs generally lower-mid 80s. Lows
could drop into the 50s Monday night across northern maryland and
the potomac highlands; lower 60s elsewhere.

High pressure will remain the dominating force into Tuesday. In the
evening, low pressure shortwave energy will be tracking across the
great lakes. The forward speed of this system still in doubt. Have
delayed the arrival of more rain in amplified flow, keeping Tuesday
and Tuesday evening dry, and confining any chance of precip to the
blue ridge west late Tuesday night. Have favored climo trends in
identifying this precipitation as just showers. It does remain
possible that some elevated instability may overspread the mountains
after midnight, which can be included later if those trends
hold.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
A developing warm front will approach from southern virginia
Wednesday morning as a surface high shifts off the new england
coast. This front should approach the mason-dixon line during the
afternoon as low pressure moves across the great lakes from the
central plains.

The surface low will be occluding and weakening as the upper trough
forcing it fills and gets reabsorbed into the larger scale westerly
flow through the day, but a decent 850-500 mb wind field will result
in substantial speed shear. The aforementioned warm front and the
presence of a lee surface trough will likely result in scattered
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A few
storms could be accompanied by gusty winds given 30-40 kts of mid
level flow, but airmass recovery and destabilization as well as the
magnitude of forcing brings into question how widespread stronger
storms will be.

The surface low will depart up the saint lawrence river valley and
through northeastern CONUS Thursday, with its attendant surface
front dropping southward into the mid-atlantic. The upper forcing
will be quickly departing, so the front should largely fall apart by
Friday as it drifts south. Still, a few pop up showers or storms are
possible Thursday afternoon as the front crosses.

Long range operational and ensemble guidance is in unanimous
agreement on the development of surface high pressure developing
over the western atlantic Friday into next weekend, with a 594+ dm
ridge at 500 hpa overhead. This would result in very warm to hot and
humid weather as 850 hpa temps rise to around 20 c.

Aviation 14z Sunday through Thursday
No restrictions are being observed at this moment over the
terminals and am expecting conditions to remain that way until
this afternoon with an increase in cloud cover and the chance of
scattered showers thunderstorms, however coverage is still
uncertain at this time. Any storms should end by sunset, or
very soon thereafter... From northwest (mrb) to southeast (cho-
dca)
a cold front will slowly turn winds more westerly early this
evening. Humidity will be slow to erode though, so another night of
patchy fog possible. At this point, kept vsby restrictions away from
terminals aside from a couple of hours immediately before dawn.

Building high pressure will provide tranquil flight conditions
Monday into Tuesday. Winds will be northwest Monday, with
return flow arriving Tuesday.

Some patchy sub-vfr fog or lower ceilings are possible Wednesday am
before a weak warm front lifts north toward the pa border. Scattered
showers and a few gusty thunderstorms are possible Wednesday pm
which could result in brief restrictions. Winds will generally be
southerly around 10 kts, gusting to 20 kts Wed afternoon outside of
any convection. A weakening cold front will move south across the
mid-atlantic Thu with patchy sub-vfr is possible again in the am, d
possibly a pop up shower storm in the afternoon. Winds W AOB 10
kts.

Marine
Winds over the waters are less than 10 kt this morning.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon... A few
of which may contain locally strong winds.

Any thunderstorms will end soon after sunset as a cold front crosses
the waters. Winds will veer west, but mixing not likely to improve
until after sunrise Monday. Guidance suggesting full mixing will
support winds approaching by not reaching small craft criteria. Have
capped winds just under at this time.

The pressure gradient will weaken Monday night into Tuesday as high
pressure builds across the waters.

Despite warm air over relatively cooler air Wednesday, the gradient
should be strong enough to result in some SCA level gusts on
southerly flow. Scattered afternoon and evening storms are possible,
more isolated Thursday with lighter winds.

Tides coastal flooding
Anomalies should continue to decrease on westerly to northwesterly
flow through Tuesday. Minor flooding is still possible through
Monday morning on the upper tidal potomac shoreline due to some
added freshwater input, but overall the tidal flood threat should be
very low.

Onshore flow will cause anomalies to increase again during the
middle of the week in tandem with a full moon (Thursday), resulting
in a renewed potential of more widespread (minor) tidal flooding.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Dhof
near term... Imr hts
short term... Hts
long term... Dhof
aviation... Imr hts dhof
marine... Hts dhof
tides coastal flooding... Dhof


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 17 mi46 min WSW 6 G 9.9 86°F 77°F1010.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 19 mi40 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1 82°F 1010.7 hPa (-0.3)
FSNM2 19 mi40 min WSW 4.1 G 9.9 83°F 1010.8 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 24 mi40 min SSW 6 G 8.9 81°F 75°F1011.2 hPa (-0.4)
CPVM2 35 mi40 min 77°F 77°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 36 mi46 min 84°F 1010.8 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 37 mi40 min W 5.1 G 8.9 83°F 77°F1010.7 hPa (-0.5)
44063 - Annapolis 37 mi30 min S 5.8 G 5.8 77°F 1011.6 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 42 mi40 min SSE 5.1 G 5.1 77°F 74°F1012.2 hPa (-0.0)74°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 49 mi40 min W 7 G 9.9 84°F 73°F1010.5 hPa (-0.6)
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 49 mi40 min 84°F 77°F1009.8 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD12 mi55 minWSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F73°F62%1011.2 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD16 mi46 minno data mi91°F64°F42%1010.6 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD23 mi1.8 hrsWSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F69°F63%1010.9 hPa

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW12W8SW8
1 day agoE8--E8
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E9NE5NE4CalmNE4NE4E9
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2 days agoCalmW3N8N7NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE3SE4E6SE4CalmE3CalmE3E4E6E7E6E10
G16
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Tide / Current Tables for Bowley Bar, Middle River, Maryland
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Bowley Bar
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Sun -- 03:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:44 AM EDT     2.04 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:44 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:35 PM EDT     1.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:34 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.71.11.51.8221.91.71.41.10.80.60.60.70.91.11.31.31.210.70.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for Pond Point, Bush River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Pond Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:45 AM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:32 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:36 PM EDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.40.711.41.8221.91.61.310.70.50.50.60.91.11.31.31.10.90.60.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.