Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mystic Island, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:32AMSunset 8:18PM Monday May 29, 2017 1:39 AM EDT (05:39 UTC) Moonrise 9:38AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 940 Pm Edt Sun May 28 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Overnight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Showers.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt late in the morning, then becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the late evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tue..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ400 940 Pm Edt Sun May 28 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A low pressure system stalls over ontario tomorrow. Two cold fronts associated with this low are expected to move through our region, one on Monday, and another late Tuesday or early Wednesday. High pressure will build in over the region on Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mystic Island, NJ
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location: 39.54, -74.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 290135
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
935 pm edt Sun may 28 2017

Synopsis
A low pressure system stalls over ontario tomorrow. Two cold
fronts associated with this low are expected to move through our
region, one on Monday, and another late Tuesday or early
Wednesday. High pressure will build in over the region on
Thursday. Another low pressure system is expected to approach
the region Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Showers continue to move across the region this evening. While a
small chance exists for a rumble of thunder, in general, most
areas will see light showers through tonight.

Clouds will remain across the area all night, so low temperatures
will not be that cool. Readings will only fall into the upper
50s (north) and low 60s elsewhere.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
Monday, memorial day, looks to feature cloudy conditions across the
area with some improvement later in the day. Showers will be across
the N E areas during the morning, but these will move away by
afternoon. Temperatures will be cool early, but then jump once the
clouds begin to thin. High temperatures will range from the low 70s
north to the low 80s over delmarva. Winds will switch from
onshore... To wrly at 5 to 10 knots.

There is a growing chance that the cloud cover remains thicker
across the region, especially across the northern areas. As a
result, high temperatures may not break out of the lower 60s through
northern new jersey and the poconos.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
The main thing to watch through the long term period will be the mid
and upper level low that is expected to mostly stall out over
ontario early this week.

Monday night... Added fog to the forecast... Areas along the coast
and patchy inland. It clears aloft, though some cirrus at times.

That leaves Mondays stratus deck likely to settle to the sfc as
fog... Possibly dense in a light wind field with the weak sfc
ridge overhead.

Tuesday and Wednesday... A secondary cold front (the first one, a
rather weak and dissipating one is expected tomorrow) is expected to
move through the region either late Tuesday or early Wednesday at
the same time a mid level short wave trough digs along the south
side of the main low. Synoptic scale lift isn't especially
impressive through this time period, but there could be enough
instability both days to support some thunderstorms. Despite the
cold front, temperatures through this period should stay near or
even slightly above normal, with highs generally in the 70s and 80s.

Thursday... With a surface high building over the region, this looks
to be the day with the best chance of dry weather of the week. It
also looks like the coolest day of the work week, with temperatures
slightly below normal.

Friday through Sunday... As mentioned by the previous shift, the
details in this period are uncertain at this time as it will be
highly dependent on how the mid and upper level low evolves. At this
point, there are rather large differences both between models and
with run to run consistency. Therefore, stayed close to the previous
forecast and a guidance consensus through this period.

Aviation 02z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Vfr conditions remain at most of the terminals with MVFR at
kacy and kmiv. Expect conditions to deteriorate through the rest
of the night as rain spreads across the terminals. Ceilings will
drop further to ifr through the overnight period.

Scattered showers will remain across the terminals through much
of the night, which will help to keep low clouds fog in place
through much of the TAF period. A small chance for thunder
exists overnight but confidence is too low to include in the
tafs at this time.

Winds will be mostly out of the east to southeast around 5 to
10 knots tonight.

Skies are expected to lift a little on Monday but remain
ifr MVFR into the afternoon. Some improvement might occur into
Monday evening but confidence is low.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Wednesday... Some possible fog or low clouds to
start Tuesday, otherwise generallyVFR through Wednesday. There
is a chance for showers and thunderstorms each day which could
also lead to conditions belowVFR.

Thursday...VFR is anticipated with dry conditions.

Friday... Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. If any affect
the TAF sites, it may result in MVFR or lower conditions.

Marine
We will continue with the SCA flag for the northern nj coastal
waters as previously outlined. While conditions have been sub-sca
today, a gradual increase in seas is expected overnight with the
continuing SE flow across the waters. Scattered showers are expected
overnight. There is a chance for a thunderstorm too, mainly across
delaware bay and possibly the delaware ocean waters.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday... Winds and seas are expected to stay below
sca criteria. However, seas may begin to build above 4 ft on Friday.

Rip currents...

the outlook for Monday is still a low risk for the development
of dangerous rip currents. A 2-3 foot east or southeast swell
and a south or southwest wind is expected to develop from
southern nj southward (atlantic and CAPE may counties in nj and
sussex county de).

A somewhat enhanced but still low risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents may develop for monmouth county and possibly
the beaches of northern ocean county nj where an east or northeast
wind of 15 mph may persist through the entire day.

Tides coastal flooding
Onshore flow continuing into the evening hours and the
continued high astronomical tides should result in another round
of minor coastal flooding tonight. As a result, the coastal
flood advisory continues for the high tide cycle tonight. It
covers the coastal counties of new jersey and delaware, as well
as the counties along delaware bay and the lower delaware river
up to the area just below the commodore barry bridge.

Based on the guidance and on the fact that the astronomical
tides are decreasing as we move away from the new moon,
tonight's coastal flood advisory should be the last one for a
while.

Climate
May rainfall as 2 pm today:
acy 7.11 inches ranked #2. Record 8.80 1948. Por 1874.

Phl 6.12 inches. Ranked #11 record 9.46 1894. Por 1872. #10 is
6.65" just last year.

Ilg 5.70 inches. Ranked #16. Record 11.99 1894. Por 1894.

May rainfall in central de without todays amts... Ie through the 27th
smyrna 7.33
kenton 6.10
dover 6.03 and 6.50 (two different deos reported sites)
townsend 5.61
blackbird 5.63

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... Coastal flood advisory until 3 am edt Monday for njz012>014-
020>027.

Coastal flood advisory until 4 am edt Monday for njz016.

De... Coastal flood advisory until 3 am edt Monday for dez002>004.

Coastal flood advisory until 4 am edt Monday for dez001.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon edt Monday for anz450>452.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... Meola o'hara
short term... Meola o'hara
long term... Drag johnson
aviation... Johnson meola o'hara
marine... Johnson meola o'hara
tides coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 4 mi70 min ENE 13 60°F 1011 hPa57°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 13 mi52 min 59°F 62°F1009.6 hPa
44091 37 mi40 min 60°F5 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 45 mi52 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 59°F 67°F1011.5 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi64 min 59°F 66°F1011 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 48 mi52 min 60°F 67°F1010.3 hPa
BDSP1 48 mi52 min 59°F 1010.9 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ11 mi46 minENE 98.00 miLight Rain59°F0°F%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS3----CalmE4E7SE10SE10SE14
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1 day ago--W5W5W4--NW6NW8NW7--3W7W9NW8NW9----W5--SW5SW5--CalmSW3--
2 days agoW4SW3W5W7W10W10W13----W14W13
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Tide / Current Tables for Graveling Point, New Jersey
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Graveling Point
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Mon -- 05:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:52 AM EDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:27 PM EDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:57 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.33.93.12.21.20.4-0.2-0.401.12.133.63.63.12.31.50.70.2-00.41.42.53.4

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:37 AM EDT     -3.46 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:31 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:58 AM EDT     2.71 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:10 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:52 PM EDT     -2.76 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:26 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:09 PM EDT     3.04 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.10.8-0.5-1.6-2.5-3.3-3.4-2.5-0.90.82.22.72.31.30.2-0.9-1.8-2.5-2.8-2.1-0.70.92.33

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.