Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mystic Island, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 7:49PM Friday August 18, 2017 11:44 PM EDT (03:44 UTC) Moonrise 2:40AMMoonset 5:29PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 942 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, then becoming W 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Showers and scattered tstms.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas around 3 ft until early morning, then 2 ft or less. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming S around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..SW winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 942 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. As low pressure tracks well to our north, a cold front moves through late tonight into early Saturday. High pressure then builds in late Saturday and remains in place into Monday before shifting offshore. The next cold front is scheduled to arrive during Wednesday, then canadian high pressure builds in for Thursday and Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mystic Island, NJ
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location: 39.54, -74.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 190154
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
954 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
As low pressure tracks well to our north, a cold front moves
through late tonight into early Saturday. High pressure then
builds in late Saturday and remains in place into Monday before
shifting offshore. The next cold front is scheduled to arrive
during Wednesday, then canadian high pressure builds in for
Thursday and Friday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
The cold front was still back across central pennsylvania and
eastern west virginia around 9:30 pm. The boundary is forecast
to pass through our region after midnight. Until that time
conditions will remain warm and muggy.

The last of the rain showers were in southern new jersey and
central and southern delaware. They will continue to make their
way off the coast and farther out to sea overnight. The
potential for severe weather and flooding continues to decrease.

As a result, all watches have been discontinued. All that
remains in effect are a couple flood advisories where the rain
continues to fall.

The wind will be generally less than 10 mph overnight at
varying directions which may begin to favor the northwest and
west with the arrival of the cold front. Low temperatures are
expected to be mostly in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
Cold front should be offshore early Saturday morning, and once
west to northwest winds increase a bit, the drier airmass
spreads east, and any lingering fog will burn off. Skies clear
out in the afternoon. Dewpoints drop about 10-15 degrees,
generally into the mid 60s, but temps will be fairly warm,
topping off in the upper 80s to near 90 across the urban
corridor of i-95 from trenton to wilmington, and in the
delmarva. Upper trough approaches from the west, and this may
bring isolated late day showers and thunderstorms to far western
portions of the forecast area.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
Summary... Lowering of the dew points through Sunday although
remaining warm to hot, then moistures increases again with some
convection especially Wednesday with the next cold front. A
noticeably cooler and drier airmass arrives for Thursday and
Friday in the wake of the cold front.

Synoptic overview... An upper-level trough is forecast to exit
the northeast Saturday night and Sunday, then the flow aloft
turns more zonal through early next week. Another trough is
forecast to amplify across eastern canada and the great lakes to
the northeast Tuesday into Thursday, which then remains in the
northeast on Friday. We used a blend of continuity guidance for
Saturday night through Sunday night, then blended in the 12z wpc
guidance.

For Saturday night and Sunday... The axis of an upper-level
trough is forecast to slide across the region Saturday night,
then quickly move across and exit new england Sunday. A short
wave embedded within this trough is forecast to move through
Saturday night, although it may shear out to the east-northeast.

While some drying is expected to move in, enough lingering
moisture and instability combined with lift may allow for some
convection to arrive from the west before weakening. We
therefore carried some slight chance pops in Saturday evening
across parts of the western zones. The flow aloft then turns
more zonal on Sunday with surface high pressure building in.

This should be accompanied by more pronounced drying, and with
plenty of heating during the day Sunday the dew points are
anticipated to lower to more comfortable levels. A northwesterly
breeze on Sunday may be light enough to allow for a sea breeze
to develop in the afternoon.

For Monday and Tuesday... The zonal flow aloft continues at
least into Tuesday. This drives high pressure eventually
offshore as it weakens some later Monday. The next upper-level
trough amplifies eastward from the midwest and upper great lakes
Tuesday. This will start to back the flow more southwesterly,
and there may be a lee- side trough present on Tuesday. As the
moisture begins to increase once again combined with the
possibility for some convergence and enough instability, some
convective development is possible Tuesday afternoon. We will
carry slight chance pops as a result for Tuesday. Any isolated
convection especially inland should tend to diminish during the
night. It will turn more humid during this timeframe.

For Wednesday through Friday... The prospects for convection
will depend on the timing of an incoming cold front Wednesday.

This will be due to an upper-level trough arriving from the
west, however a pre-frontal trough may serve as the primary
focus for showers and thunderstorms. We will continue with
chance pops with the idea for at least scattered convection
possible Wednesday. As of now, the cold front should be offshore
to start Thursday and canadian high pressure builds
southeastward, which arrives over our area on Friday. A
noticeably cooler and drier airmass overspreads our region for
Thursday and Friday.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Overnight...VFR and MVFR. Low level moisture remains in place
and some local low clouds and or fog should develop. The extent
of the low clouds fog is of lower confidence.

Saturday... Any fog dissipates early, otherwiseVFR. Northwest
winds increase to 5-10 knots, then shift to the west or
southwest in the afternoon. Isolated late day shower or
thunderstorm possible near krdg kabe.

Outlook...

Saturday night and Sunday...VFR overall. Southwest winds 5
knots or less becoming northwest Saturday night, then northwest
winds near 10 knots Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday... MainlyVFR. Southerly winds around 10
knots.

Wednesday... Sub-vfr at times with some showers and
thunderstorms possible as a cold front arrives. Southwest winds
5-10 knots, becoming west.

Marine
The SCA has been cancelled as wind speeds and wave heights
diminish gradually. The last of the showers and thunderstorms
will move out to sea overnight.

Tranquil conditions develop and will remain in place through
Saturday.

Fog may develop late tonight and into Saturday morning, which
could reduce vsbys down to 1 nm.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday... The conditions are
anticipated to be below small craft advisory criteria.

Rip currents...

the rip current risk for Saturday is currently outlooked as
low.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Gorse
near term... Iovino
short term... Mps
long term... Gorse
aviation... Gorse mps
marine... Gorse mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 4 mi74 min S 8.9 75°F 1010 hPa74°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 13 mi44 min 75°F 79°F1010.7 hPa (+0.8)
44091 37 mi44 min 77°F6 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 45 mi44 min WNW 5.1 G 5.1 74°F 77°F1010.6 hPa (+1.0)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi68 min 74°F 76°F1009.8 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 48 mi44 min 74°F 78°F1009.7 hPa (+1.6)
BDSP1 48 mi44 min 76°F 1010.2 hPa (+1.3)

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ11 mi50 minS 10 G 2010.00 miLight Rain76°F73°F94%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E6E8E5E7E6E9
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2 days agoCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW4NW6NW7NW8N76344SE8SE8S6S6S63NE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Graveling Point, New Jersey
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Graveling Point
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Fri -- 12:41 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:56 AM EDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:43 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:21 PM EDT     4.05 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.10.71.62.43.13.33.12.51.91.20.60.20.10.61.62.73.6443.52.821.2

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:10 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:35 AM EDT     2.37 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:41 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:33 AM EDT     -2.71 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:05 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:52 PM EDT     3.05 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:20 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.8-1.8-0.31.22.22.31.70.7-0.3-1.2-2-2.6-2.6-1.7-0.11.42.732.51.50.4-0.7-1.7-2.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.