Wednesday, January24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mystic Island, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:10PM Wednesday January 24, 2018 6:44 AM EST (11:44 UTC) Moonrise 12:23PMMoonset 12:39AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 614 Am Est Wed Jan 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late this morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the W with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of light freezing spray late.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas around 3 ft early in the evening, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less. Rain likely.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
ANZ400 614 Am Est Wed Jan 24 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will build into the eastern united states through the end of the week before proceeding offshore on Saturday. A strong storm system with an accompanying cold front will move through the region Sunday and Monday. High pressure builds back into the northeast by the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mystic Island, NJ
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location: 39.54, -74.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 241106
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
606 am est Wed jan 24 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build into the eastern united states through the
end of the week before proceeding offshore on Saturday. A strong
storm system with an accompanying cold front will move through the
region Sunday and Monday. High pressure builds back into the
northeast by the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Today... Mostly cloudy this morning with probably some thinning
of the cold air advection cloud cover mid afternoon. A few flurries
near and north of i-78 early today with caa. A gusty northwest
wind of 25 to 30 mph this morning- midday should diminish a bit
by mid afternoon. Stayed close (raised 1f) to the prev fcst max
temps which are decidedly cooler than the 00z 24 GFS mos. Still
the daytime high temp should be within 4f of normal.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
Mid and high cloud increases late, especially pa nj. Otherwise
a diminished wind but temps winds were basically a continuity
forecast from the previous 330 pm Tuesday forecast. Low temps
basically within 2f of normal. I could see these temps running a
few degrees warmer if it becomes overcast for several hours.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Progressive pattern will continue across the u.S. Through the
period with a surface low moving near or through the area Sunday
and a potent northwest-flow vort MAX moving through Monday and
Monday night that will bring our next chance(s) for
precipitation.

Thursday and Friday will feature a trough departing the east
coast with upstream ridging progressing into the area. A broad
surface high will encompass the region during this period, with
the northern extension of the high originating from central
canada. This means temperatures will be colder than average,
especially Thursday and Thursday night, before thicknesses
increase with the approaching midlevel ridge on Friday. The gfs
is somewhat more progressive than the cmc ecmwf, with the
associated statistical guidance considerably warmer on Friday
(10 degrees warmer for phl, e.G.). Ensemble simulations and
consensus guidance suggest that the GFS is probably on the fast
side, so I kept temperatures much below mex MOS on Friday,
though not as cool as ECMWF mos would suggest. Temperatures
Thursday night are also of somewhat lower confidence, as the
combination of light winds and clear skies will likely allow
temperatures to tank in especially prone rural valley locations.

Mos has been woefully inaccurate in these scenarios much of
this winter, so the lows forecast are below consensus and
potentially still too warm.

Temperatures climb quickly this weekend, with temperatures 10 to
20 degrees above average Saturday and Sunday. The familiar
forecast adjustments were made here, generally increasing
highs lows at least a degree or two above consensus based on
biases observed for the past year in these patterns. With the
approaching system on Sunday, did not go too out of hand with
temperatures yet, given increased cloud cover and potential
effects of precipitation.

Saturday night and Sunday, a midlevel vort MAX will lift east-
northeast through the central u.S. Into the northeast by Sunday
night. There remain considerable differences in the synoptic-
scale details of the associated trough, with the gfs
flatter faster than the ECMWF (with the cmc in between). With
Tuesday's system, the GFS ended up being too fast and the ecmwf
was a tad too slow, so a consensus approach on timing is
probably a good idea, though the forecast is weighted much more
strongly to the cmc ECMWF timing (which worked out well for the
system affecting the area on Tuesday).

The greater uncertainty is with the position track of the
developing surface low, though there is improved consensus for a
track from the ohio valley into the northern mid-atlantic and
southern new england Sunday and Sunday night. This places the
cwa in the warm sector Sunday, so precipitation will likely be
all liquid during this period. Rain looks especially likely
during the day, with the best consensus between 12z Sunday and
00z Monday, when pops are highest. QPF looks fairly tame, with
the strongest ascent generally north of the area (and then east
as a southern-stream vort MAX aids in large-scale lift as the
attendant front moves offshore). However, given the large
discrepancies in spatial details and remaining timing
uncertainty, broadened pops from Saturday night through Sunday
night and cannot rule out higher QPF than consensus (which
currently is generally in the 0.10-0.50 inch range for the
event).

Perhaps the most challenging (and interesting) aspect of the
long-range forecast is the upstream behavior of the system, with
ensemble trends strongly favoring a deeper trough. This implies,
for starters, that temperatures may be too warm in the current
operational suite, and there may be sufficient instability
upstream of the front for showers Monday and Monday night,
especially as a kicker vort MAX digs into the mid-atlantic
during this period. The 00z ECMWF paints a rather interesting
scenario Monday night, with some light snow occurring in parts
of the area as the vort MAX swings through. Would like to see
better consensus among the guidance before changing the forecast
too much, but I did extend low pops through Monday night, with
temperatures cold enough for snow in most of the area by the
evening hours. Further refinements to the forecast are likely
here as a lot of model differences need to be worked out.

High pressure builds back in Tuesday and Wednesday, which spells
another cold dry period for the area.

Aviation 11z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR CIGS at or above 4,500 feet thinning this afternoon
to scattered clouds toward sunset. West to northwest winds
10-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, perhaps even 28 kt this
morning
tonight...VFR. Sct-bkn clouds AOA 4000 ft, mostly AOA 15000 ft.

Northwest wind may gust 15 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday:VFR with northwest winds 10 to 15 kts with occasional
gusts to 20 kts or so. Somewhat above average confidence.

Thursday night and Friday:VFR with light variable winds. High
confidence.

Friday night and Saturday:VFR with winds between southeast and
southwest 5 to 15 kts (potentially stronger near the coast and
in delmarva). Average confidence.

Saturday night: south to southwest winds 5 to 15 kts
(potentially stronger near the coast) with increasing
cloudiness. Increasing chances of rain, especially west of phl,
with sub-vfr conditions possible. Below average confidence.

Sunday: periods of sub-vfr conditions likely with a good chance
of rain. Winds generally southwest 5 to 15 kts. Average
confidence.

Marine
Sca today only. Water temps cooler than the overriding airmass
and therefore momentum transfer is limited. Nevertheless, a
pulse of CAA later this morning should boost gusts to 25 kt in
the cw for a time. These winds are now developing as this is
written. Its possible, in part dependent on what happens late
this morning, that the SCA may need an extension into tonight,
and even tomorrow but for now... A conservative approach was
applied to the headline due to our uncertainty. We had to lower
our modeled gust speeds over the water, and raise the gusts over
the landmass.

Outlook...

Thursday: marginal advisory conditions possible, especially in
the morning, but confidence is not high.

Thursday night through Friday night: no headlines anticipated.

Fair weather.

Saturday and Saturday night: low-end advisory (south to
southwest) winds and seas possible, especially off the nj
coast.

Sunday: southwest winds may gust around 20 kts or so, but the
current forecast is for sub-advisory conditions. A good chance
of rain, with visibility restrictions possible.

Hydrology
Forecast points... Monitoring the delaware, well within its
banks and expected to remain so. Still the runoff and some ice
forced some decent rises vcnty tocks island overnight. That has
just changed with a slight recession there since 415 am. No
action anticipated, just monitoring.

River ice... We continue to receive reports of solid ice cover
on the delaware river, but conditions are not as widespread as
last week. We know of solid ice near trenton from about the
route 1 bridge south down to about borderntown, or near the head
of the tide. We also know of ice further north near and in the
delaware water gap.

With the warm temperatures the last few days combined with yesterday's
rains and rising water levels, melting and fracturing ice will
occur. Restrictions in flow or ice jams are possible as ice
breaks up and begins to move.

Since ice jams can not be predicted with certainty, the best approach
is awareness and to take notice of day to day changes on a river
or stream of concern.

Climate
For what its worth: acy is already 8" above the entire seasonal
normal snowfall... 24.2" vs entire season 16.2.

January average temps... Negative departure will warm another
degree or degree and one half for the rest of the month over the
entire area so that monthly norms will be below normal except
possibly abe and phl.

For phl: based on our forecast these last 7 days of the month,
the month will average normal. That is about 1.2f warmer than an
in-house prediction on the 18th.

So, food for thought. If one were to look at monthly averages
as a determinant of climate, one might look back at phl climate
for january and not see anything unusual (presuming we end up
within 1f of normal). Except we all know better.

The two week period of december 24-jan 6 was the third coldest
in that period of time for phl, using climate perspectives and
looking back 146 years=equivalent to living in milwaukee.

Wilmington was 2nd coldest looking back 125 years for that
specific two week period and also equivalent to living in
milwaukee.

Atlantic city was 3rd coldest.

For allentown looking back 96 years, that two week period was
the coldest ever for that time frame and equivalent to living a
normal day-day life in anchorage.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for anz430-
431-450>455.

Synopsis... Cms
near term... Drag 607
short term... Drag 607
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms drag 607
marine... Cms drag 607
hydrology...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 4 mi75 min SW 6 40°F 1012 hPa31°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 13 mi45 min 42°F 37°F1013.4 hPa (+2.0)
44091 37 mi45 min 42°F6 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 45 mi45 min NW 8.9 G 14 43°F 34°F1012.2 hPa (+2.1)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi69 min WNW 14 G 24 44°F 34°F1011.3 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 48 mi45 min 45°F 34°F1012.3 hPa (+2.5)
BDSP1 48 mi45 min 44°F 37°F1012.5 hPa (+2.5)

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ11 mi51 minW 610.00 miOvercast43°F32°F65%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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SW11S10W6W8NW15
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS3SE4S3SE3S5S7S7S7S6S7S5S6S7SW5S8S10
G19
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2 days agoCalmCalmSW4NW10NW10NW11NW7NW7--W3S5S4SW4S5S3S6S6S5S6S4S3CalmSE3SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Graveling Point, New Jersey
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Graveling Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:00 AM EST     3.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:53 AM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:22 PM EST     2.92 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:08 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     First Quarter
Wed -- 08:12 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.932.92.51.81.20.70.50.40.61.222.62.92.92.51.91.20.60.20.10.20.71.6

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:54 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:11 AM EST     -2.13 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:46 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:21 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:23 PM EST     2.11 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:09 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:06 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     First Quarter
Wed -- 07:22 PM EST     -2.21 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:58 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.41.90.9-0.1-0.9-1.5-1.9-2.1-1.9-10.31.4221.20.1-0.8-1.5-1.9-2.2-2.1-1.301.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.