Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mystic Island, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 4:42PM Saturday November 17, 2018 2:08 PM EST (19:08 UTC) Moonrise 3:04PMMoonset 1:39AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 1245 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
This afternoon..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 4 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt late. Seas around 3 ft until early morning, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 1245 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure over the great lakes and ohio valley builds east today, passes overhead tonight, then moves out to sea Sunday and Sunday night. SEveral upper level disturbances will pass north of the region Monday and Monday night, and then a cold front passes through Wednesday night. High pressure builds to the north to close out the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mystic Island, NJ
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location: 39.54, -74.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 171423
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
923 am est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
High pressure over the great lakes and ohio valley builds east
today, passes overhead tonight, then moves out to sea Sunday and
Sunday night. Several upper level disturbances will pass north
of the region Monday and Monday night, and then a cold front
passes through Wednesday night. High pressure builds to the
north to close out the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
9 am update: no major changes with this update. Stratocumulus
persists northwest of the fall line, but across the coastal
plains, it has eroded for the most part. Still, given the
strong cold air advection, heating should be limited even if the
clouds erode more.

Previous discussion...

a strong vort MAX is moving offshore new england early this
morning, leaving the northern mid-atlantic in quasi-zonal
midlevel flow. A surface high to our south and west will provide
for westerly surface flow today. Fairly strong cold advection
in the low levels will continue today, so not expecting too much
of a warmup from yesterday. Statistical guidance has
temperatures about 2-6 degrees warmer than yesterday, in
general. I leaned toward the cooler guidance somewhat, mainly
because I am somewhat concerned it will be a little cloudier
than the model consensus suggests. The strength of the cold
advection near the surface is clearly allowing for the
development trapping of upstream stratocumulus, with models
poorly forecasting the southeastward expansion and oscillation
of the cloud deck. I expect this to continue to be the case
today. In addition, a dry weak cold front will be approaching
from the west, and this may be enough to curb stronger heating,
especially in the north west.

Cannot rule out a flurry or even a rain snow shower in the
northern CWA today, but model guidance is generally excluding
this as a risk. Given the nearly universal consensus on this,
considered this too low of a risk for inclusion in the forecast
at this time.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
The surface high to our west will build into the northeast
tonight, allowing the weak cold front to move through the region
during the period. Surface flow will become more northerly,
though it may decouple entirely as the surface ridge approaches.

Meanwhile, midlevel zonal flow will continue, and a weak vort
max passage during the evening will likely keep some amount of
cloudiness around, especially to areas north and west of the
urban corridor. Cannot completely rule out a flurry shower in
the poconos and vicinity this evening, though the threat looks
too low for forecast mention at this time. Otherwise, the CWA is
expected to be dry.

Given the infiltration of the surface high to our north and
west upstream of the weakening cold front passing through,
minimum temperatures will likely be somewhat lower than those
observed this morning, though the potential for considerable
cloudiness may impede this cooling somewhat. In general,
followed a consensus statistical blend.

Long term Sunday through Friday
High pressure over the area Sunday morning moves out to sea
during the day. The first of several weak clipper systems will
approach in the afternoon, and passes north of the area late
Sunday and Sunday night.

Thermal profiles have temperatures below freezing in the
southern poconos and far northern new jersey, where precip
should fall as snow. Temperatures will generally above freezing
from around i-78 to i-80, where precip will start out as rain,
then temps fall through the night, allowing for rain to mix with
some snow. QPF totals will be less than 1 10", with the bulk of
the QPF in carbon and monroe counties, so not expecting much in
the way of snowfall. Will cap pops at chance, mainly for the
northern half of the forecast area.

The second clipper system will pass through the region Monday
afternoon and Monday night. Again, temperatures will be cold
enough for all snow along and north of around i-78, and rain
south of that. QPF amounts will once again be light, generally
less than 2 10" inch, with the highest amounts in the southern
poconos. Accumulating snow possible, especially in the higher
elevations.

Surface high pressure passes through the region on Wednesday,
and then a cold front will pass through the region Wednesday
night and thanksgiving morning. An arctic airmass builds into
the region for the end of the week, as 850 mb temps will fall to
-12c in DELMARVA to -20c in the southern poconos.

High pressure builds east on Friday, and the airmass warms back
up a bit, as 850 mb temps warm back to 0 to +3c.

Aviation 14z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... MainlyVFR, though transient MVFR may occur at rdg abe
this morning. Bkn-ovc CIGS around 3000-5000 feet early this
morning may scatter out at times, especially from the philly
terminals southeastward, but a more considerable cloud deck most
of the day cannot be ruled out. Winds generally westerly around
10 kts. Moderate confidence.

Tonight... MainlyVFR, though some MVFR conditions may occur
from time to time, generally northwest of phl. Winds becoming
light variable. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday-Tuesday... Periods of MVFR conditions possible with a chance
of showers. Snow possible at krdg abe at night.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...VFR conditions expected.

Marine
Winds have dropped below 25 kt, thus the SCA was allowed to
expire. West to northwest winds should diminish to 10 to 20 kts
by this afternoon with seas lowering to 3 to 4 feet. Sub-
advisory conditions should continue tonight, with directions
becoming more northerly with time as a weak cold front moves
through the area. No precipitation is expected through the
period.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday... Conditions expected to remain below
advisory levels with west-northwest winds 10-15 knots.

Tuesday night... Conditions may increase to near small craft
advisory levels.

Wednesday... Conditions expected to be below advisory levels.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Cms johnson
short term... Cms
long term... Mps
aviation... Cms mps
marine... Cms johnson mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 4 mi99 min W 6 46°F 1023 hPa29°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 13 mi39 min 49°F 51°F1023.1 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 45 mi39 min NW 6 G 12 46°F 41°F1023.2 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi93 min WNW 8 G 9.9 45°F 40°F1022.8 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 48 mi39 min 49°F 43°F1022.5 hPa
BDSP1 48 mi39 min 47°F 46°F1022.9 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ11 mi75 minWNW 13 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy50°F33°F52%1023 hPa

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Graveling Point, New Jersey
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Graveling Point
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Sat -- 12:39 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:29 AM EST     2.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:24 AM EST     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:43 PM EST     3.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:48 PM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.322.52.82.82.52.11.71.310.80.91.322.52.932.82.31.71.20.80.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:37 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:53 AM EST     1.36 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:06 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:03 AM EST     -1.63 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:33 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:12 PM EST     1.59 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:39 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:24 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:30 PM EST     -1.97 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.51.11.41.10.60.1-0.5-1-1.4-1.6-1.3-0.50.41.21.61.40.90.3-0.4-1-1.5-1.9-1.9-1.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.