Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Republic, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 5:41PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 1:56 AM EST (06:56 UTC) Moonrise 8:05PMMoonset 8:36AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 1211 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through late tonight...
Rest of tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Wed..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of snow early in the morning, then snow in the late morning and afternoon. Rain and sleet late. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm late.
Wed night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Rain.
Thu..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of rain early in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Sat night..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sun night..W winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
ANZ400 1211 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure over the mid-atlantic region tonight will give way on Wednesday to a complex low pressure and frontal system moving into the eastern u.s. This system will bring a mix of wintry precipitation across the area through Wednesday night. High pressure will build into the area for Thursday and Friday. Strong low pressure moving across the great lakes should bring mostly rain to the region for much of Saturday and Sunday. High pressure is forecast to return early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Republic, NJ
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location: 39.55, -74.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 192347
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
647 pm est Tue feb 19 2019

Synopsis
High pressure over the mid-atlantic region tonight will give way on
Wednesday to a complex low pressure and frontal system moving into
the eastern u.S. This system will bring a mix of wintry
precipitation across the area through Wednesday night. High pressure
will build into the area for Thursday and Friday. Strong low
pressure moving across the great lakes should bring mostly rain to
the region for much of Saturday and Sunday. High pressure is
forecast to return early next week.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
One more period with the surface high in place over the region,
resulting in mostly dry conditions. As mid level dry air
advection begins to develop late tonight, we should see
increasing cloudiness and some precipitation could even reach
portions of DELMARVA by the pre-dawn hours.

The increasing clouds will limit radiational cooling, so we
should see temperatures near normal, with lows in the teens and
20s across the region.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
This is the period of greatest concern with the potential for wintry
weather across the region starting very early Wednesday morning and
continuing through Wednesday night (though for many locations there
will be a changeover to all rain as early as Wednesday afternoon -
more on that below).

Changes with this forecast: the biggest change involved the
headlines: far NE md and chester, berks, and upper montgomery co
in pa are now under a winter storm warning. A winter weather
advisory has been issued for the remainder of the area.

Synoptic mesoscale pattern: as the large surface high that has
been sitting over our region for the last few days shifts east,
a warm front will propagate north into the region. In the mid
and upper levels, a large closed low will cross from the dakotas
to the great lakes region. What is interesting about this system
is that the main area of synoptic scale lift stays well north
and west of the region. Thus, the amount of precipitation is
highly dependent on mesoscale (mostly with frontogenesis) lift.

Unfortunately, this leads to another source of uncertainty as it
is difficult to pick out the areas of greatest mesoscale lift
this far out.

Timing: timing for the onset and ending of precipitation has changed
little with the latest model runs. Precipitation is expected to
start very early Wednesday morning in delmarva, but it may not begin
until early afternoon for portions of northern nj. Precipitation
should come to an end early Thursday morning as the surface low
lifts northeast away from our region.

Precipitation type:the biggest source of uncertainty with both
impacts and snow ice amounts is the precipitation type and the
timing of any precipitation type changes. We have relatively
high confidence that the precipitation will begin as all snow.

Once the warm front arrives, ptype gets very uncertain. As is
often the case with warm fronts, we will likely see an elevated
warm layer develop from south to north. When this develops, we
should see snow begin to change over to sleet. Based on model
soundings, it looks like the elevated warm layer will initially
be high enough to preclude much freezing rain - it will be
mostly snow or sleet. As the elevated warm layer becomes deeper,
and the base lowers closer to the surface, the threat for
freezing rain increases.

Snow and ice amounts: no significant changes in forecast snow
and ice amounts. Having said that, there is still considerable
uncertainty with the snow and ice amounts as it will be very
dependent on the timing of changeovers.

Impacts: regardless of the exact snow and ice amounts, I am very
concerned that much of the region could be seeing the greatest
impacts coincident with the evening commute. The one exception
is DELMARVA and SE nj which should see the change over to all
rain before this time. Even if the snow and ice amounts are
lower, the potential for ice on top of snow, could result in
very slippery conditions.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
The long term period starts out with a break from stormy weather
as the low pressure and frontal system associated with the wed-
wed night event will have moved north east of the area by 12z on
Thursday. Precip should be over for most areas by then, except
possibly southern de or south coastal section of nj. There is
some cold advection behind this system, but no big surge of
arctic air, and temps are forecast to remain near or somewhat
above normal, even as surface high pressure builds in from the
west through the end of the week.

Meanwhile a mid- upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the
eastern u.S., while another shortwave trof begins to eject out
of the southwest. Winds aloft become southwest and begin to
bring increasing cloud and moisture into the mid-atlantic. Light
precip is forecast to develop and spread northeast into the area
on Saturday, or possibly late Friday night in delmarva.

Confidence in the time of arrival is relatively low, and any
rain amounts on Saturday should be light. Temps should be warm
enough to avoid any sig snow or ice with this event.

Saturday night looks more favorable for significant rain as uvv
and warm advctn increase ahead of the upper trof and deepening
sfc low, both moving northeast into the great lakes. A warm
front is forecast to move north through the area early Sunday
resulting in mild temps and more showery precip in the sfc low
warm sector during the day. A cold front passage late in the day
should end the precip.

High pressure is expected to build into the area early next
week, bringing fair wx an a return to near normal temps for late
feb.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. Increasing high clouds early then mid-level
clouds arrive towards dawn. Light winds from the N mostly.

Wednesday...VFR early then lowering CIGS as snow overspreads from
the SW during the morning. Phl fcst beginning time is 15z presently.

Sharply lowering vsbys then CIGS (ifr or lifr) after snow begins.

Precip will mix with or change to sleet across the SRN terminals
during the afternoon. Rain snow mix at kphl after 21z (limited
confid). Winds mostly E or SE around 10 knots.

Outlook...

Thursday... MVFR or lower conditions are possible in the
morning, improving toVFR by the afternoon. Winds becoming W nw
between 10-15 knots with some gustiness. High confidence.

Friday...VFR conditions with northwesterly winds under 10
knots. High confidence.

Saturday... GenerallyVFR conditions early but possibly lowering
to MVFR in the afternoon. Light southeast winds.

Saturday night... Widespread MVFR ifr conditions expected in rain
and fog. Variable winds mostly less than 10 kt. Moderate
confidence.

Sunday... Conditions should improve toVFR MVFR but lower at
times in showers. South winds becoming gusty and shifting to
west late in the day. Low confidence on timing.

Marine
Winds and seas could reach small craft advisory criteria as
early as Wednesday afternoon on the coastal waters, and will
likely continue Wednesday night.

Outlook...

Thursday... Seas building to SCA levels by Thursday am on ocean
waters with west winds gusting 20 to 25 kt.

Friday Saturday... Seas winds dipping below SCA by early Friday
morning with sub-sca conditions prevailing through Saturday.

Sunday... SCA conditions possible in gusty SW winds and building
seas.

Tides coastal flooding
Northeast flow develops late tonight, and then east to southeast
flow increases on Wednesday as low pressure approaches from the
south and west. The higher of the two high tide cycles will occur
Wednesday morning, when departures should be around 1 2 foot above
normal. Minor coastal flooding thresholds may be touched in some
spots Wednesday morning, but not anticipating widespread minor
coastal flooding advisory. Although locally minor coastal flooding
cannot be ruled out, do not think it will be widespread enough to
warrant a coastal flood advisory for the high tide Wednesday morning
at this time. Elevated tides may continue into Thursday morning.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter weather advisory from 10 am Wednesday to 1 am est
Thursday for paz105.

Winter weather advisory from 7 am to 9 pm est Wednesday for
paz070-071-104-106.

Winter weather advisory from 10 am Wednesday to 6 am est
Thursday for paz054-055-061-062.

Winter storm warning from 10 am Wednesday to 1 am est Thursday
for paz060-101>103.

Nj... Winter weather advisory from 10 am Wednesday to 1 am est
Thursday for njz008>010-012>015.

Winter weather advisory from 7 am to 9 pm est Wednesday for
njz016>027.

Winter weather advisory from 10 am Wednesday to 6 am est
Thursday for njz001-007.

De... Winter weather advisory from 7 am to 9 pm est Wednesday for
dez001.

Winter weather advisory from 7 am to 4 pm est Wednesday for
dez002>004.

Md... Winter weather advisory from 7 am to 4 pm est Wednesday for
mdz015-019-020.

Winter storm warning from 7 am to 4 pm est Wednesday for
mdz008-012.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm Wednesday to 6 am est Thursday
for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Amc
near term... Johnson mps
short term... Johnson
long term... Amc
aviation... Amc o'hara
marine... Amc johnson
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 1 mi86 min W 2.9 29°F 1036 hPa17°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 14 mi56 min 33°F 39°F1036.9 hPa (+0.3)
44091 40 mi56 min 41°F2 ft
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 43 mi80 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 31°F 39°F1036.6 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 43 mi56 min NNE 1.9 G 4.1 31°F 38°F1037 hPa (-0.0)
BDSP1 44 mi56 min 32°F 41°F1036.4 hPa (-0.0)
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi56 min 32°F 38°F1035.9 hPa (-0.0)
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 48 mi56 min ENE 1 G 1.9 33°F 39°F1036.1 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Burlington, Delaware River, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ9 mi62 minNW 410.00 miFair30°F17°F58%1036.5 hPa

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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2 days agoN8NW4N5N3N4N6N6NE6E9NE9SE66E3SE6SE8SE6SE4SE7SE6SE4E5N5S3S5

Tide / Current Tables for Cramers Boatyard, New Jersey
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Cramers Boatyard
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Wed -- 04:02 AM EST     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:36 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:31 AM EST     3.87 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:40 PM EST     -0.85 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:05 PM EST     3.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.910.2-0.5-0.7-0.40.723.13.83.83.42.51.60.6-0.2-0.7-0.8-0.112.33.23.63.4

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
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Wed -- 02:02 AM EST     -3.33 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:38 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:25 AM EST     3.59 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:34 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:47 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:37 PM EST     -3.77 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:27 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:38 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:00 PM EST     3.17 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:12 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2-2.9-3.3-2.8-1.30.72.53.53.42.51.1-0.3-1.6-2.7-3.6-3.7-2.7-0.91.12.63.22.71.60.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (1,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.