Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Republic, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 8:11PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 2:30 PM EDT (18:30 UTC) Moonrise 11:04PMMoonset 7:53AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 1207 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019
This afternoon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft early, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt early in the evening, then 20 kt late. Seas around 3 ft early in the evening, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late in the morning, then becoming ne early in the afternoon, becoming S late. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1207 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will build into the area today into Wednesday bringing dry and pleasant weather. A warm front will pass through the area Wednesday night with a cold front arriving Thursday night into Friday morning. High pressure will again be nearby the area Friday and into Saturday. A cold front will likely cross the region late Saturday into early Sunday potentially stalling just our south towards the start of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Republic, NJ
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location: 39.55, -74.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 211600
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1200 pm edt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build into the area today into Wednesday
bringing dry and pleasant weather. A warm front will pass
through the area Wednesday night with a cold front arriving
Thursday night into Friday morning. High pressure will again be
nearby the area Friday and into Saturday. A cold front will
likely cross the region late Saturday into early Sunday
potentially stalling just our south towards the start of next
week.

Near term through tonight
Yesterday afternoon, dewpoints topped out in the 60s to around
70 degrees. This morning they are in the upper 30s and 40s. So
after temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 yesterday with said
dewpoints, today will feel almost september-like. Highs will be
about 15 degrees cooler with a stiff NW breeze.

Previous discussion...

northwesterly flow today as cooler and drier air continues to
filter into the region behind the cold frontal passage last
night. It will be breezy this afternoon with gusts potentially
reaching 20 mph at times. Dew points will continue drop into
the low 40s, to even upper 30s across the poconos and northern
new jersey. Overall, dry weather today with sunny skies.

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler with highs in the low 70s and
upper 60s to the north, just a few degrees below average for this
time of year. These temperatures combined with the lower humidity
will provide a refreshing, perhaps even fall feel to the air.

Short term Wednesday
Winds will begin to taper down tonight as northwesterly flow aloft
moves further offshore to the east. Lows will drop into the low 50s
to 40s across the southern poconos and northwest new jersey under
clear skies.

We continue to sit between low pressure systems to our east and west
and high pressure centered just to the north over quebec. Another
nice and sunny day with highs a few degrees warmer and right near
where we should be this time of year in the mid 70s throughout most
of the cwa. It will continue to feel comfortable with relative
humidity values sitting near 50 percent. Winds will be on the
lighter side as well.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Synoptic overview... The large-scale pattern will continue to
be characterized by broad troughing in western north america and
ridging over the southeast. Any active weather for our area
during this period will largely be initiated by waves rounding
the ridge axis to our north (and the ridge flattening in
response). As mentioned in the previous discussion, timing
these waves and predicting their intensity is difficult since
they will be highly influenced by convection generated upstream
of the area (this synoptic pattern tends to result in
significant convective activity over the plains).

A sfc.Low should pass well to our north on Thursday pushing a
warm front through early Thursday and then a cold front Thursday
night into Friday morning. Weak high pressure attempts to build
just north of the area Friday into early Saturday before the
Thursday-early Friday pattern more or less repeats itself
Saturday into early Sunday. By early next week the pattern
becomes less clear with a stalled front possibly coming into
play along with a stronger northern shortwave.

Dailies...

Wednesday night-Thursday night... A warm front will move into
the area Wednesday night, likely generating some scattered
showers over the area into Thursday morning. Precipitation
intensity coverage will be influenced by upstream convection and
associated vorticity generation. Currently think the GFS is a
bit too bullish as it typically is in these precursor high
pressure situations so retained only chc. Pops and left qpf
generally under a tenth of an inch. There is some thunder
potential particularly over eastern pa and NW nj where some
elevated instability will be present.

After a warm day Thursday (maxes generally upper 70s to low 80s)
expect at least scattered convection to develop in an unstable
atmosphere (sbcape generally around 500-1000 j kg ahead of the
approaching cold front. Similar to the am precipitation
intensity coverage is uncertain but can't rule out some heavier
storms if shortwave energy can interact with ample moisture and
modest instability.

Friday... We will dry out behind the front on Friday, as high
pressure attempts to establish itself to our nw. Despite the
earlier front being classified a "cold" front maxes will
generally be similar to Thursday or even slightly warmer
(although we should be cooler Friday night than Thursday night
given the drier airmass and less cloud cover).

Saturday... The daytime period on Saturday looks dry, as retreating
high pressure should still lend us protection for most of the
day. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms later
in the day as another low tracks north of the area out of the
plains. Temperatures will be similar to previous days outside of
the coast which will likely run a bit cooler as onshore flow
develops in response to high pressure to our east.

Sunday-Monday... Guidance currently indicates another weak (from
a thermal standpoint) cold front passes through late Saturday
into early Sunday. Temperatures will likely warm several
degrees relative to Saturday as a more westerly-northwesterly
flow develops. Forecasting sensible weather becomes more
challenging as the aforementioned boundary may stall just south
of the area into Monday, and a more amplified shortwave digging
in from canada may provide better dynamic lift than was
associated with the earlier systems. That being said ensembles
are not particularly bullish about this wave breaking down the
eastern ridge significantly so will need to wait and see.

Aviation 16z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. Sct045 for ttn, rdg, and abe this morning, but
these should clear by 14z. Northwest winds 10-15 knots with
gusts to 25 knots. High confidence.

Tonight... VFR. Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, with gusts of 10-12
knots. High confidence.

Wednesday... VFR. Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night... MainlyVFR although some showers and
localized MVFR conditions will be possible. Winds light and
variable.

Thursday-Thursday night... Most of the daytime Thursday should be
vfr with southwest winds 5-10 kts. Showers and thunderstorms
possible Thursday evening into the overnight with winds
gradually shifting to the northwest overnight.

Friday-Saturday... VFR expected with cloud cover increasing by
Saturday pm. Initially northerly winds Friday will veer to
southerly southeasterly by Saturday afternoon.

Marine
Nw winds will diminish to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this
afternoon. Buoy 44025, 30 nm south of islip, has been reporting 5
foot seas, but is expected to the trend toward 3 to 4 ft for the
remainder of today. The small craft advisory will be allowed to
expire at noon.

Previous discussion...

with this morning update, I will issue a SCA from sandy hook
down to little egg. Gradient behind last night's front is best
across this area. Northwest winds will gust up to 25 kt and seas
will build up to 5 feet as you work further offshore and away
from the protection of land. It will be short-fused only up to
noon.

Previous discussion...

today... Sub SCA conditions expected with northwesterly winds 15 to
20 knots. Gusts to 20 to 25 knots possible. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Tonight... Sub SCA conditions expected with northwesterly winds 10 to
15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.

Wednesday... Sub SCA conditions expected with northwesterly winds 10
to 15 knots and gusts to 20 knots in the morning, subsiding to 5
knots or less in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Outlook...

Wednesday night-Friday... Winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA criteria.

Rip currents...

a northwest wind with little to no sea breeze expected should
result in a low risk.

Equipment
The kdix radar is back online. However, it will be in a test phase
through this afternoon. Intermittent outages are possible.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Carr
near term... Davis kruzdlo
short term... Davis
long term... Carr
aviation... Carr davis
marine... Carr davis kruzdlo
equipment... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 1 mi60 min WNW 7 66°F 1014 hPa40°F
44091 40 mi30 min 59°F4 ft
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 43 mi54 min NNW 5.1 G 9.9 65°F 65°F1015 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 43 mi36 min NW 12 G 16 67°F 66°F1015.4 hPa
BDSP1 44 mi36 min 66°F 65°F1015.3 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi36 min 69°F 62°F1014.8 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 48 mi36 min NW 13 G 21 66°F 64°F1015.1 hPa

Wind History for Burlington, Delaware River, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ9 mi36 minNW 15 G 2310.00 miFair70°F42°F37%1014.5 hPa

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSE11S9
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SE10S10S8--S5SE4S5S6SE5S5S5SE3SW4S4S7S7S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Cramers Boatyard, New Jersey
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Cramers Boatyard
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Tue -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:31 AM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:56 AM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:33 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.73.32.61.810.3-0.1-0.10.51.42.22.832.82.31.71.10.60.30.30.81.72.63.3

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:31 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:26 AM EDT     -2.93 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:26 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:50 AM EDT     2.14 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:55 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:36 PM EDT     -2.20 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:09 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:57 PM EDT     2.57 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.6-0.5-1.5-2.3-2.9-2.8-1.9-0.60.81.82.11.70.9-0.1-0.9-1.6-2.1-2.1-1.4-0.21.12.22.62.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.