Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 9:19 AM   Moonset 12:21 AM

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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 402 Am Edt Sun May 12 2024
Today - SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 8 seconds and S 1 foot at 8 seconds. Showers likely this morning, then a chance of showers early this afternoon. A slight chance of showers late.Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 9 seconds and se 1 foot at 14 seconds. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 3 seconds. Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 3 ft at 9 seconds. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds. Tue night - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: se 5 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 foot at 12 seconds. Showers likely in the evening, then showers after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Wed - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning. Wed night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Thu - N winds around 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

ANZ400 402 Am Edt Sun May 12 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay - High pressure lingers through the remainder of the day, before a series of fronts and low pressure systems affect the east coast Wednesday through the end of the week. High pressure looks to return to end the weekend and start the new week.

FXUS61 KPHI 120751 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 351 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure centered over Lake Huron will continue to move eastward through this afternoon. High pressure builds south of the Mid- Atlantic region Sunday night into Monday. Another area of low pressure brings more unsettled weather by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Low pressure currently centered near Buffalo NY extends a warm front southeast across Central PA into the Delmarva region. Also, a trailing cold front is currently positioned along the Appalachians.
At this hour, the warm front is accompanied with a band of light to moderate rain which will continue to move east across the area this morning. The overall position of the warm front will not change as the front weakens and essentially becomes a stationary boundary near the Delaware Bay. To the north of the boundary, this is where I expect the highest probability of light rain to continue through the morning as the surface low pivots near the eastern Great Lakes.
Periods of drizzle and mist will also be possible up in the Lehigh Valley/Poconos, as southeast flow results in some upsloping effects.
For areas south of the boundary, precip will be more in the way of isolated to scattered showers after daybreak.

By the afternoon, the cold front will be making its way east across the Mid-Atlantic. As it does so, there will be some shortwave energy aloft rounding the base of the upper trough which looks to spark up some showers and possibly a couple thunderstorms this afternoon.
SBCAPE values up to 500 J/kg will be available to tap into basis available forecast soundings. As a result, have introduced a slight chance of thunder in the forecast mainly across the Delmarva and into portions of southeast PA south of the stalled boundary. In total, expecting rainfall amounts up to 1/2 of an inch areawide.
High temps will range from the mid to upper 50s for most, with low to mid 60s across the Delmarva.

Any shower/thunderstorm activity will quickly wane with the loss of surface-based instability by early evening. Latest HRRR guidance suggests that skies will vastly improve around sunset or so as some drier air filters in. Overall, an improvement in conditions is expected tonight as the upper trough moves away. Will need to monitor the potential for some patchy fog late as well. Low temps will be in the low to mid 40s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Quiet weather makes a brief return with partly sunny skies and temps warming into the low to mid 70s under broad scale subsidence for Monday. The brief reprieve ends shortly though as the ridge breaks down ahead of an advance cutoff low pressure system moving through the Ohio Valley region. With a modest surge of PVA and height falls, there should be ample lift to support fairly widespread showers across the region Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Severe progs aren't very supportive so we should be looking at more of the typical spring/summer showers with maybe a rumble of thunder and brief periods of moderate rainfall. PW isn't forecast to be high with respect to climo as the EFI is remarkable average for the week across the forecast region. Ensemble guidance suggests about a 40% of seeing 0.4" or more with only a 15-20% chance of more than an inch. With rivers back towards normal streamflows and the rainfall not expected to fall over a short period of time, there are currently no flooding concerns.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Heading towards the end of the week the forecast will be highly dependent on how quickly the low pressure system through the middle of the week departs. There's considerable spread in guidance clusters from the ensemble suites this morning mostly dependent on timing. So the forecast is subject to change somewhat dramatically over the next few days until guidance becomes more consistent. Eventually another system will bring widely scattered showers but for the given reason just mentioned, confidence isn't sufficiently high on whether that is Sat or Sun. Thus the forecast call for low to moderate changes (30-40%) both days with slightly higher chances on Saturday.

Temps through the long term should be fairly seasonable in the low to mid 70s with overnight lows in the 50s most days.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Today...VFR expected through about 08-09Z before CIGs are expected to drop to around 1500-2500 feet as rain showers move into the region. CIGs may temporarily lower to IFR at KRDG/KABE early Sunday morning. Visibilities should generally remain in the 4-6SM range at all terminals. SE winds around 7-12 kt.
Moderate confidence overall.

Tonight...Any lingering sub-VFR CIGs early, should give way to clearing skies as skies scatter out by 23Z-03Z. Some increase in low-level clouds will be possible into early Monday especially near KRDG/KABE with some patchy fog possible. E-SE winds around 5 kt or less. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...No significant weather expected.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday night...Sub-VFR conditions expected with occasional showers.

Thursday... VFR probable.

MARINE
No marine headlines are in effect through tonight. E-SE winds around 10-15 kt today will diminish to around 5-10 kt tonight. Seas of 3-4 feet. Other than some scattered rain showers through this afternoon, fair weather is expected.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday...No marine headlines expected.
Fair.

Tuesday through Wednesday...SCA conditions possible (30-40%) as wind gusts get near 25 kt. Significant wave heights approach 6 feet Wednesday. Occasional showers.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Coastal Flood Advisories continue for the Delaware River and along the back bays of Ocean, NJ and Sussex, DE this morning.
High tide has passed over the Atlantic Ocean however trapped water in the back bays is pushing sites well into minor flood stage this morning.

Spotty minor flooding is also expected with tomorrow morning's high tide within the Chesapeake Bay.

No further tidal flooding issues are expected beyond this morning's high tide.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for NJZ016.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ020- 026.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for DEZ001.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for DEZ003- 004.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Cramers Boatyard
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:49 AM EDT     3.48 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:00 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:36 PM EDT     2.81 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:53 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cramers Boatyard, New Jersey, Tide feet

Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:59 AM EDT     -2.56 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 09:02 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:20 AM EDT     1.69 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:19 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:03 PM EDT     -1.79 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:33 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:23 PM EDT     2.17 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current, knots

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