Tuesday, June19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glasgow, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:33AMSunset 8:35PM Tuesday June 19, 2018 10:22 AM EDT (14:22 UTC) Moonrise 11:09AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 908 Am Edt Tue Jun 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until noon edt today...
Rest of today..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers. Scattered tstms.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SE winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 908 Am Edt Tue Jun 19 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front approaching from the north will stall near the waters through Wednesday. Low pressure will track along the boundary and pass near the waters Wednesday. The front will then drop farther south Thursday. High pressure will briefly build toward the waters from the ohio valley Friday before moving into the western atlantic over the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glasgow, DE
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location: 39.55, -75.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 190736
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
336 am edt Tue jun 19 2018

Synopsis
A cold front settles south of our area by later today and stalls,
then weak high pressure slides to our north through tonight. A weak
area of low pressure tracks along the front and crosses our region
Wednesday night into early Thursday. High pressure builds in
Thursday night, then shifts offshore Friday. A warm front lifts
across the region later Saturday, followed by a cold front during
Sunday. High pressure should then start to build in during Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A cold front was located over eastern new england, extending back to
the west-southwest near the pa-ny border and the midwest per 06z
surface analysis. This front will continue to progress southward
this morning, passing through our far northern zones in northeast pa
and northwest nj around daybreak, then i-95 corridor mid morning and
lastly southern de by early afternoon.

Convection along a pre-frontal trough has steadily diminished (in
terms of coverage and intensity) overnight as it moves southeastward
through eastern pa and central nj. Given recent trends, have opted
to remove thunder from the forecast for most of the area (except
southeast pa and southern nj where the atmosphere hasn't been worked
over from yesterday evening's storms) early this morning. Following
the hrrr and NAM nest, which seem to have a decent handle on the
overnight convection, the forecast calls for showers to continue to
dissipate as they move southward toward the mason-dixon line through
about 9 am.

The arrival of CAA in wake of the cold front would appear to be
delayed enough to allow temperatures to quickly rise through the 80s
this morning and into lower 90s this afternoon in and southeast of
the urban i-95 corridor. Drier air will works it way into the area
from north to south today, preventing heat indices from peaking much
higher than MAX dry-bulb temperatures this afternoon for the
northern two-thirds of the forecast area. Farther south into central
and southern de and adjacent eastern md, dewpoints will likely still
be in the lower 70s early this afternoon, resulting in heat indices
in the upper 90s to near 100.

Pockets of moderate instability should develop by early this
afternoon across our southern DELMARVA zones owing to the later
arrival of drier cooler air behind the front. Expect convective
initiation to occur south of the mason-dixon line around midday early
afternoon once the boundary layer destabilizes and a weak mid-level
shortwave trough approaches from the northwest. Based on the latest
cams and model forecast soundings, there appears to be a brief
window for strong storms toward the easton, md - georgetown, de area
through about 3 or 4 pm.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
High pressure builds in from the great lakes-upstate ny area
tonight. North-northeast winds around the surface high will sustain
the transport of cooler and drier air into the region.

Low temperatures range from the mid 50s in northeast pa and
northwest nj to the mid and upper 60s in the i-95 urban areas and in
the coastal plain. High clouds (convective debris from midwest
convection) may spread into the area late tonight.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Summary... Unsettled late Wednesday into early Thursday; turning more
humid and potentially unsettled over the weekend; some cooling early
next week.

Synoptic overview... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify
across southeastern canada and the northeast later Wednesday and
Thursday. This trough lifts out for the end of the week with some
ridging arriving ahead of an upper-level trough. This trough looks
to arrive over the weekend as it may eventually merge into one main
upper-level trough once again over southeastern canada and the
northeast. This may then tend to keep our region within cyclonic
flow through early next week. Overall, the pattern looks progressive
with no sustained high heat and humidity.

For Wednesday and Thursday... As an upper-level trough amplifies
across the northeast from southeastern canada, some short wave
energy results in weak low pressure developing along a stalled west
to east frontal zone which is to our south. These features track
eastward and move across our region late Wednesday before shifting
out to sea Thursday morning. Most of the shower activity looks to
occur Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, coinciding with
an area of ascent and convergence that moves across the forecast
area. A plume of precipitable water values to around 2 inches is
forecast to advect northward across about the southern half of our
area Wednesday night. This may result in locally heavy rain,
especially where stronger convective elements occur. There is mostly
elevated instability forecast to be present, therefore will maintain
a thunder mention for a time. The pops were raised to likely for
a good portion of our area Wednesday night.

As the weak surface low shifts out to sea during Thursday, high
pressure from near and north of the great lakes builds eastward.

This allows for drier air to advect across our area, however a north
to northeast low-level flow may delay the clearing longer especially
for the southern areas. The presence of a nearby upper-level jet may
also keep some mid to high level clouds around for awhile. The upper-
level trough is forecast to lift out Thursday night.

For Friday... As the upper-level trough lifts farther away from our
region, a short wave ridge builds east on Friday. This allows
surface high pressure to build across new england and also down into
the northern mid-atlantic region. A frontal zone will be positioned
well to our south and an onshore flow looks to result. This will
likely keep the coastal areas cooler. As the next upper-level
trough, which may be a closed low, moves into the ohio and tennessee
valley's, warm air advection is forecast to increase toward our
region late in the day and especially at night. This will help to
strengthen the frontal zone as a warm front. This warm front should
be approaching our far southern areas late Friday night. The best
lift, forcing and instability looks to be west and southwest of our
area, therefore only carried some slight chance pops across the
western and southern areas at night.

For Saturday and Sunday... As an upper-level trough or closed low
lifts across the eastern great lakes Saturday, it should weaken and
become absorbed into a larger upper-level trough that starts
amplifying across southeastern canada. This drives surface low
pressure across the eastern great lakes later Saturday, pulling a
warm front northward across our region. Some showers and
thunderstorms may accompany the warm frontal passage during the day
Saturday followed by a possible pre-frontal trough Saturday night. A
cold front is currently forecast to move through our area during
Sunday. The main upper-level trough amplifying into the northeast
Sunday may hold back the stronger forcing behind the actual cold
front. Therefore, the coverage and intensity of the convection is
less certain as the more organized convection may focus across
delmarva southward. The incoming trough looks decent, therefore will
have to monitor for the potential for a more robust convective setup.

For Monday... The amount of clearing and drying that takes place will
depend on the timing and sharpness of an upper-level trough in the
northeast as it shifts eastward. A cold front is forecast to be
settled to our south, and as of now it is far enough south to
probably result in a dry day. It is possible the boundary hangs up a
bit farther north as a wave of low pressure develops on it, however
this is less certain. We opted to carry a slight chance pop for now
in the gridded forecast.

Aviation 08z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... PredominatelyVFR. A 2-3 hr tempo group for MVFR vsby in
shra before daybreak was included in the 06z TAF for sites N W of
phl but with convection continuing to weaken across the area, the
risk of this occurring is quickly decreasing. W-sw winds 5-10 kt
early this morning will become NW behind a cold front mid to late
morning. The potential for gusts up to 20 kt should generally be
confined to N W of i-95 terminals (rdg and abe) from mid morning
through mid afternoon. Winds will veer out of the N late this
afternoon. However, a sea-breeze will lead to a much more abrupt
wind shift out of the e-ne this afternoon at acy and possibly at miv
toward the early evening.

Tonight...VFR. N-ne winds under 10 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR during the day with increasing clouds,
then MVFR ifr conditions should develop at night as some showers and
possible thunderstorms move through. The conditions should improve
toVFR during Thursday morning.

Friday...VFR overall.

Saturday... Developing MVFR conditions are probable as a warm front
lifts across the area with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Southerly winds may gust up to 20 knots during the day.

Marine
Winds and seas below SCA criteria today. W-sw winds 5-10 kt with
gusts to 15 kt early this morning will become NW by late this
morning and then NE this afternoon. Seas in our coastal waters of 3-
4 ft early this morning should gradually diminish to around 2 ft
this afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday... The conditions are expected to be below small craft
advisory criteria. Some increase in the winds may occur for a time
especially in the afternoon and evening however gusts should be
at or below 20 knots.

Thursday and Friday... The conditions are anticipated to be below
small craft advisory criteria.

Saturday... A warm front is forecast to lift north of the area late.

Southeast to south winds may gust to around 20 knots at times. There
is a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Rip currents...

a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents is expected
at the nj and de beaches today with waves in the surf zone of 2-3
ft and a light medium-period (6-9 sec) south to southeasterly swell.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Gorse
near term... Klein
short term... Klein
long term... Gorse
aviation... Gorse klein
marine... Gorse klein


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 5 mi52 min NW 6 G 8.9 79°F 78°F1010.2 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 8 mi52 min 80°F 76°F1009.4 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 8 mi52 min NNW 7 G 11 80°F 73°F1010 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 24 mi52 min 82°F 75°F1009.7 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 35 mi112 min WNW 1.9 81°F 1010 hPa78°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 36 mi52 min SW 1.9 G 2.9 81°F 78°F1010.3 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 41 mi52 min 82°F 73°F1009.1 hPa
BDSP1 46 mi52 min 80°F 75°F1009.7 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 48 mi52 min W 4.1 G 5.1 82°F 1009.9 hPa
FSNM2 48 mi52 min W 6 G 8.9 83°F 1010.1 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 49 mi52 min NNW 7 G 12 86°F 80°F1009.7 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE11 mi31 minNNW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F73°F74%1010 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD24 mi84 minWNW 59.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F73°F77%1010.4 hPa

Wind History from ILG (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE6SE6SE6SE7S7S11S10S11S11S9S10S7S7SE6S3CalmSE3SE4S4SW3S3S3W5W9
2 days agoCalm3SE8S9S7SW8SW8SW9SW5SW7S5S5S4S4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Summit Bridge, Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Delaware
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Summit Bridge
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Tue -- 12:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:51 AM EDT     4.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:37 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:38 PM EDT     3.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:54 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.62.63.43.943.732.21.40.70.100.61.62.53.23.73.73.32.51.81.20.60.3

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
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Tue -- 12:12 AM EDT     1.83 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:39 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT     -2.04 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:38 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     2.25 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:08 PM EDT     -0.07 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:55 PM EDT     -1.84 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:44 PM EDT     0.06 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.81.71.1-0.8-1.5-1.9-2-1.9-1.5-10.81.62.12.221.50.5-1.2-1.7-1.8-1.7-1.4-10.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.