Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Accident, MD
May 7, 2024 9:11 AM EDT (13:11 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:11 AM Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 4:38 AM Moonset 7:10 PM |
Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 071229 AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 829 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
Patchy dense fog is possible this morning, primarily south of Pittsburgh. Severe weather potential increases Tuesday evening after 6pm, and could last into the overnight hours. Another round of severe weather could potentially impact southern portions of the area early Thursday morning. Cooler weather is expected this weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- Severe storms are possible late this evening into early Wednesday morning.
- Probabilities for severe weather area highest for our CWA across east-central Ohio.
- All modes of severe weather (large hail, damaging wind, tornadoes, and flooding) are possible with these storms.
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Ridging will briefly build over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today as a large low pressure system lifts and occludes across the Dakotas. This will keep the area mostly dry for the morning into early afternoon. By this afternoon, the stationary front to our south will lift north across the region as a warm front. This will allow a few stray showers and non-severe storms to develop across portions of southwest PA and northern WV.
Ongoing convection from storms currently across the Plains will shift eastward across the Mississippi Valley through this morning, strengthening to our west across the Ohio Valley with diurnal heating and an increasingly unstable atmosphere this afternoon. CAMs show an initial round of thunderstorms rapidly decaying across central Ohio by mid-afternoon as it outruns better dynamic/thermodynamic support to the west.
A second round of more potent thunderstorms is expected to develop behind this initial feature, coincident with a crossing shortwave and strengthening low-level jet. These storms will reach eastern Ohio near sunset. Despite the loss of surface heating, a surge of warm/moist air may keep the region modestly unstable into the overnight. This will be a key factor in how far east severe storms can persist, as ample shear will be more than sufficient to maintain well-organized storms (Bulk Shear ~50 kts).
Modeled soundings across Ohio support a clustered or discrete/supercell environment during the afternoon. These cells will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes before eventually weakening somewhere across our forecast area. Probabilities for severe weather remain highest in our area across east-central Ohio where SPC has highlighted a Slight Risk (2/5). Farther east, a Marginal Risk (1/5) flags the lower-end threat. The potential for severe storms rapidly decreases after 2am Wednesday morning as mid-level ridging builds.
Though quick storm motion should preclude widespread flooding risk, high PWAT (~1.5") will allow for heavy rainfall rates and the potential for localized flash flooding.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- Brief ridging will allow for dry weather with sunshine on Wednesday.
- Additional storms are possible late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, but probabilities are increasing for severe storms to stay south of the forecast area.
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A brief respite from rainfall is expected during the day on Wednesday with high pressure in place behind the front.
Temperatures will push back into the upper 70s and lower 80s for much of the area with plentiful sunshine.
Another disturbance is expected Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as another low pressure system develops over the Plains and crosses into the Ohio Valley. At this time, severe weather appears to be initially focused along a warm front lifting north across across southern IL/IN/KY. Recent guidance trends keep stall this boundary with much slower northward progress. This should keep most initial convection to our south Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. The SPC Convective Outlook reflects this change, pulling the Slight Risk south out of our area. Severe storms could still be possible across northern West Virginia if this feature were to shift farther north, but probabilities for this are decreasing.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- Ensembles suggest a wet pattern into the weekend.
- Cooler temperatures arrive by late week with highs in the 60s this weekend.
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Crossing low pressure will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast Thursday into Friday. Deep eastern CONUS troughing developing late week and a series of shortwaves traversing the upper flow will then keep daily shower and thunderstorm chance in the forecast through early next week.
Below-average temperature is likely Friday through Sunday within northwesterly flow, and 850mb temperature could range from 2C to -1C. At the moment, the potential for frost/freeze concerns is considered low.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Broken VFR cigs will be rule through the day except for FKL and DUJ where there will be less coverage. Dry conditions will prevail before a line of showers and thunderstorms move through the region between 02z-08z; be prepared for gusty wind and cloud to ground lightning with that convection.
Outlook
The active weather pattern will persist through the end of the week by promoting periods of showers and thunderstorms.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 829 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
Patchy dense fog is possible this morning, primarily south of Pittsburgh. Severe weather potential increases Tuesday evening after 6pm, and could last into the overnight hours. Another round of severe weather could potentially impact southern portions of the area early Thursday morning. Cooler weather is expected this weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- Severe storms are possible late this evening into early Wednesday morning.
- Probabilities for severe weather area highest for our CWA across east-central Ohio.
- All modes of severe weather (large hail, damaging wind, tornadoes, and flooding) are possible with these storms.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Ridging will briefly build over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today as a large low pressure system lifts and occludes across the Dakotas. This will keep the area mostly dry for the morning into early afternoon. By this afternoon, the stationary front to our south will lift north across the region as a warm front. This will allow a few stray showers and non-severe storms to develop across portions of southwest PA and northern WV.
Ongoing convection from storms currently across the Plains will shift eastward across the Mississippi Valley through this morning, strengthening to our west across the Ohio Valley with diurnal heating and an increasingly unstable atmosphere this afternoon. CAMs show an initial round of thunderstorms rapidly decaying across central Ohio by mid-afternoon as it outruns better dynamic/thermodynamic support to the west.
A second round of more potent thunderstorms is expected to develop behind this initial feature, coincident with a crossing shortwave and strengthening low-level jet. These storms will reach eastern Ohio near sunset. Despite the loss of surface heating, a surge of warm/moist air may keep the region modestly unstable into the overnight. This will be a key factor in how far east severe storms can persist, as ample shear will be more than sufficient to maintain well-organized storms (Bulk Shear ~50 kts).
Modeled soundings across Ohio support a clustered or discrete/supercell environment during the afternoon. These cells will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes before eventually weakening somewhere across our forecast area. Probabilities for severe weather remain highest in our area across east-central Ohio where SPC has highlighted a Slight Risk (2/5). Farther east, a Marginal Risk (1/5) flags the lower-end threat. The potential for severe storms rapidly decreases after 2am Wednesday morning as mid-level ridging builds.
Though quick storm motion should preclude widespread flooding risk, high PWAT (~1.5") will allow for heavy rainfall rates and the potential for localized flash flooding.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- Brief ridging will allow for dry weather with sunshine on Wednesday.
- Additional storms are possible late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, but probabilities are increasing for severe storms to stay south of the forecast area.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A brief respite from rainfall is expected during the day on Wednesday with high pressure in place behind the front.
Temperatures will push back into the upper 70s and lower 80s for much of the area with plentiful sunshine.
Another disturbance is expected Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as another low pressure system develops over the Plains and crosses into the Ohio Valley. At this time, severe weather appears to be initially focused along a warm front lifting north across across southern IL/IN/KY. Recent guidance trends keep stall this boundary with much slower northward progress. This should keep most initial convection to our south Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. The SPC Convective Outlook reflects this change, pulling the Slight Risk south out of our area. Severe storms could still be possible across northern West Virginia if this feature were to shift farther north, but probabilities for this are decreasing.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- Ensembles suggest a wet pattern into the weekend.
- Cooler temperatures arrive by late week with highs in the 60s this weekend.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Crossing low pressure will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast Thursday into Friday. Deep eastern CONUS troughing developing late week and a series of shortwaves traversing the upper flow will then keep daily shower and thunderstorm chance in the forecast through early next week.
Below-average temperature is likely Friday through Sunday within northwesterly flow, and 850mb temperature could range from 2C to -1C. At the moment, the potential for frost/freeze concerns is considered low.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Broken VFR cigs will be rule through the day except for FKL and DUJ where there will be less coverage. Dry conditions will prevail before a line of showers and thunderstorms move through the region between 02z-08z; be prepared for gusty wind and cloud to ground lightning with that convection.
Outlook
The active weather pattern will persist through the end of the week by promoting periods of showers and thunderstorms.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
Pittsburgh, PA,
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