Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 8:36PM Monday June 26, 2017 4:50 AM EDT (08:50 UTC) Moonrise 7:31AMMoonset 9:50PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 431 Am Edt Mon Jun 26 2017
Rest of the overnight..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Wed night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 431 Am Edt Mon Jun 26 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build west of the area through Tuesday. A weak cold front cross the waters Tuesday. High pressure will move over the area Wednesday before shifting offshore Thursday. Small craft advisory conditions are possible over portions of the waters Tuesday and again Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, MD
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location: 39.57, -75.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 260730
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
330 am edt Mon jun 26 2017

Synopsis
A large area of surface high pressure builds into the eastern united
states early in the new week before moving offshore on Wednesday. A
series of upper troughs will swing through the east coast during
this time as well. A series of low pressure systems will pass north
of the region late this week and into the new weekend, and each low
will drag a weak boundary through the region during this time. A
more developed area of low pressure is possible Sunday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A strong short wave dropping southeastward from the midwest and
upper great lakes early this morning will amplify an upper-
level trough eastward through the day. This will result in
gradual height falls across our area by late in the day. At the
surface, a weak cold front across the area early should tend to
dissipate through the day or become a surface trough.

The model guidance shows several short waves within the flow
out ahead of the aforementioned amplifying trough. This along
with cooling aloft should generate enough lift and instability
to develop showers and thunder (probably low-topped) to our
northwest and west. Much of the guidance keeps this activity
just to our west northwest by late in the day, however terrain
influence may help pop a few isolated showers in the
northwestern zones after 18z 2 pm. The forecast soundings
overall show a fair amount of dry air, however there is some
instability that develops this afternoon. The forecast amount of
instability within these soundings looks to be minimal and
given that convection will probably be low-topped, we only
carried a shower mention and kept pops across the northwest
zones no higher than slight chance. We also slowed down the
arrival of the mentionable pops. The forecast soundings show the
convective temperatures being reached more likely across the
interior, therefore placed the higher sky cover mainly near and
west of i-95.

Based on the incoming height falls through the day, the
thickness values will also lower some and therefore high
temperatures are expected to be a bit cooler than yesterday. The
flow should be light enough to allow the surface winds to turn
more southerly along the coast. The high temperatures are mostly
a blend of MOS and continuity.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
An upper-level trough will continue to sharpen across the
eastern great lakes and ohio valley through the night. This will
drive weak low pressure just north of the great lakes, with
either a weak cold front or surface trough extending southward
from it. There is plenty of short wave energy within this
trough, however much of this looks to hang back over the great
lakes and ohio valley. The main short wave is forecast to move
across the eastern great lakes late tonight, and this is where
much of the shower activity should be focused. For our area,
some guidance is a bit more robust with a lead short wave and
want to produce a few showers thunder overnight near the
delaware valley. This cannot be ruled out as there may still be
a surface trough in place or weak incoming cold front, however
confidence is not all that high and therefore kept it dry for
now.

Otherwise, there should be more cloudiness around for awhile
tonight especially the mid level variety as some instability may
linger with cooling aloft. The lowering of the dew points
during the day today should recover some tonight as winds go
light, however despite more cloud cover for a time the
temperatures are expected to be cooler given the overall air
mass will be cooling with the incoming upper-level trough. Low
temperatures were mainly a blend of continuity and mos.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
The long term period will start off relatively cool and dry, as
high pressure and an upper trough build in from the west. When
both the high and the trough move offshore during the mid-week
period, return flow will usher a hot and humid airmass back into
the region for the end of the week and into next weekend.

By Tuesday, the center of the surface high positions itself
over the southeast u.S. And the base of the upper trough digs
into the ohio valley and appalachians. A few strong shortwaves
will dive into the base of the trough, and this trough will
traverse the east coast in the afternoon and evening. There is
not much moisture associated with this systems, as a drying west
winds result in surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to around
50.Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible, do not think they will be long lived or widespread.

Highest pops will be to the north and south, where the strongest
shortwaves will be. Highs remain several degrees below normal,
generally in the mid to upper 70s, though the poconos will be
about 10 degrees cooler.

Any lingering showers will taper off in the evening as the
trough moves offshore. By Wednesday morning, the center of the
high establishes itself over the mid-atlantic. Dry and pleasant
conditions on tap with low humidity values as highs will
approach 80 for most of the region, and dewpoints will be in the
low 50s.

Surface high pressure begins to move offshore Wednesday night.

This results in a pattern shift for the end of the week and
weekend, as heat and humidity gradually build.

With surface high pressure entrenched off the southeast u.S.

Coast, and an upper ridge gradually builds east through the end
of the week, return flow sets up and pushes temps through the
80s on Thursday, and gradually into the lower 90s Friday and
Saturday. In addition, surface dewpoints rise back up, first
into the low 60s Thursday, and then approaching 70 and low 70s
over the weekend.

Meanwhile, several strong shortwaves will dive into the
northern states, and several areas of low pressure will develop
to the west and will pass north of the region. As they track
north of the region, they will drag a weak frontal boundary
through the northeast and mid-atlantic. Will carry slight
chance-chance pops from Thursday through Saturday.

Upper ridge moves offshore late Saturday, and then an upper
trough begins to dig towards the east coast. Sunday could
feature a bit more precip across the region as low pressure
develops south of the region and lifts to the north. Will carry
high chance pops for Sunday.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. An isolated shower is possible after 18z north and
west of krdg and kabe. Light and variable winds becoming
northwest to west 5-10 knots, however turning from the south at
kacy in the afternoon with some sea breeze influence.

Tonight...VFR ceilings at times, mainly at or above 7000 feet.

While a shower around is possible, coverage and occurrence is
rather low. Southwest winds (locally south) less than 10 knots,
becoming light and variable at most terminals.

Outlook...

Tuesday: mainlyVFR. Isolated to scattered shra tsra possible
with brief MVFR or lower conditions. W-sw winds 10-15 kt with
gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon.

Tuesday night...VFR. Any lingering shra tsra taper off in the
evening. Light w-nw winds.

Wednesday...VFR. W winds 5-10 kt. Gusts 15-18 kt possible in
the afternoon.

Wednesday night...VFR. S winds 5-10 kt.

Thursday...VFR. Isolated shra tsra possible at kabe krdg. S
winds 5- 10 kt north and west of i-95, and 10-15 kt with 20-25
kt gusts at terminals south and east of i-95.

Thursday night and Friday... MainlyVFR, but scattered shra tsra
possible, mainly north and west of i-95. SW winds 10-15 kt with
gusts up to 20 kt.

Marine
The conditions are expected to remain below small craft
advisory criteria through tonight. A northwesterly wind will
turn southwest to south this afternoon and tonight (possibly
south-southeast in delaware bay for a time as a sea bay breeze
occurs). While some gustiness will occur at times, gusts are
expected to be less than 25 knots.

Outlook...

Tuesday... Sub-sca conditions. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Possible.

Tuesday night... Any showers and thunderstorms taper off in the
evening. Sub-sca conditions.

Wednesday... Sub-sca conditions.

Thursday through Friday: SCA winds seas possible as stronger
southwesterly winds become established. A slight chance of
storms on Friday.

Rip currents
The forecast conditions through this evening should result in a
low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Gorse
short term... Gorse
long term... Mps
aviation... Gorse mps
marine... Gorse mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 4 mi51 min W 1.9 G 5.1 69°F 82°F1017 hPa (+0.3)
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 12 mi41 min NW 9.7 G 12 71°F 1016.6 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 14 mi51 min NW 5.1 G 7 66°F 77°F1016.4 hPa (+0.0)
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 15 mi51 min 67°F 79°F1016.1 hPa (+0.0)
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 28 mi51 min 67°F 1015.8 hPa (+0.4)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 31 mi51 min W 8 G 11 71°F 78°F1016 hPa (+0.5)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 32 mi51 min NW 14 G 18 74°F 80°F1017.1 hPa (+0.0)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 40 mi96 min S 1 64°F 1017 hPa60°F
44043 - Patapsco, MD 41 mi41 min NW 14 G 18 74°F 1 ft1017.3 hPa
FSNM2 43 mi51 min WNW 11 G 13 71°F 1016.7 hPa (+0.0)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 43 mi51 min WNW 9.9 G 12 72°F 1016.6 hPa (+0.0)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 44 mi51 min N 7 G 8.9 72°F 80°F1016.4 hPa (+0.0)
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi51 min 71°F 77°F1015.7 hPa (+0.6)
CPVM2 49 mi51 min 73°F 55°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE15 mi60 minNW 410.00 miFair65°F50°F59%1016.7 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD18 mi1.9 hrsN 010.00 miFair62°F51°F67%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from ILG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3NW3CalmCalmCalmSE3SE5SW76W85--NW86W14W7W7W5W8NW8NW8W6NW6NW4
1 day agoS6S13
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NW7W5W7SW7SW5W6SW3W5W3W6NW6NW6
2 days agoS4S5S7SW8SW11SW10S10SW11SW15
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SW13SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Old Frenchtown Wharf, Maryland
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Old Frenchtown Wharf
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Mon -- 05:26 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:09 PM EDT     4.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:18 PM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.82.51.91.30.90.60.60.91.62.53.44.14.34.23.732.31.510.70.81.21.82.4

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:02 AM EDT     -2.43 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:51 AM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:51 AM EDT     2.45 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:33 PM EDT     -0.04 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:53 PM EDT     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:13 PM EDT     0.08 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:57 PM EDT     1.93 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.2-1.9-2.3-2.4-2.3-1.9-1.30.61.72.32.42.21.81-0.9-1.5-1.7-1.5-1.2-0.51.11.71.91.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.