Tuesday, February19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 5:45PM Tuesday February 19, 2019 11:54 PM EST (04:54 UTC) Moonrise 5:56PMMoonset 7:02AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 943 Pm Est Tue Feb 19 2019
Rest of tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A slight chance of snow with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Snow or sleet. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw late. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sat..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming w. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely through the day.
ANZ500 943 Pm Est Tue Feb 19 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong low pressure system will impact the region late tonight through Wednesday night. Low pressure will then push off to the north and east on Thursday as a frontal boundary passes through the waters. High pressure will build to the north through week's end. Small craft conditions will be possible on Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, MD
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location: 39.57, -75.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 192347
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
647 pm est Tue feb 19 2019

Synopsis
High pressure over the mid-atlantic region tonight will give way on
Wednesday to a complex low pressure and frontal system moving into
the eastern u.S. This system will bring a mix of wintry
precipitation across the area through Wednesday night. High pressure
will build into the area for Thursday and Friday. Strong low
pressure moving across the great lakes should bring mostly rain to
the region for much of Saturday and Sunday. High pressure is
forecast to return early next week.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
One more period with the surface high in place over the region,
resulting in mostly dry conditions. As mid level dry air
advection begins to develop late tonight, we should see
increasing cloudiness and some precipitation could even reach
portions of DELMARVA by the pre-dawn hours.

The increasing clouds will limit radiational cooling, so we
should see temperatures near normal, with lows in the teens and
20s across the region.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
This is the period of greatest concern with the potential for wintry
weather across the region starting very early Wednesday morning and
continuing through Wednesday night (though for many locations there
will be a changeover to all rain as early as Wednesday afternoon -
more on that below).

Changes with this forecast: the biggest change involved the
headlines: far NE md and chester, berks, and upper montgomery co
in pa are now under a winter storm warning. A winter weather
advisory has been issued for the remainder of the area.

Synoptic mesoscale pattern: as the large surface high that has
been sitting over our region for the last few days shifts east,
a warm front will propagate north into the region. In the mid
and upper levels, a large closed low will cross from the dakotas
to the great lakes region. What is interesting about this system
is that the main area of synoptic scale lift stays well north
and west of the region. Thus, the amount of precipitation is
highly dependent on mesoscale (mostly with frontogenesis) lift.

Unfortunately, this leads to another source of uncertainty as it
is difficult to pick out the areas of greatest mesoscale lift
this far out.

Timing: timing for the onset and ending of precipitation has changed
little with the latest model runs. Precipitation is expected to
start very early Wednesday morning in delmarva, but it may not begin
until early afternoon for portions of northern nj. Precipitation
should come to an end early Thursday morning as the surface low
lifts northeast away from our region.

Precipitation type:the biggest source of uncertainty with both
impacts and snow ice amounts is the precipitation type and the
timing of any precipitation type changes. We have relatively
high confidence that the precipitation will begin as all snow.

Once the warm front arrives, ptype gets very uncertain. As is
often the case with warm fronts, we will likely see an elevated
warm layer develop from south to north. When this develops, we
should see snow begin to change over to sleet. Based on model
soundings, it looks like the elevated warm layer will initially
be high enough to preclude much freezing rain - it will be
mostly snow or sleet. As the elevated warm layer becomes deeper,
and the base lowers closer to the surface, the threat for
freezing rain increases.

Snow and ice amounts: no significant changes in forecast snow
and ice amounts. Having said that, there is still considerable
uncertainty with the snow and ice amounts as it will be very
dependent on the timing of changeovers.

Impacts: regardless of the exact snow and ice amounts, I am very
concerned that much of the region could be seeing the greatest
impacts coincident with the evening commute. The one exception
is DELMARVA and SE nj which should see the change over to all
rain before this time. Even if the snow and ice amounts are
lower, the potential for ice on top of snow, could result in
very slippery conditions.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
The long term period starts out with a break from stormy weather
as the low pressure and frontal system associated with the wed-
wed night event will have moved north east of the area by 12z on
Thursday. Precip should be over for most areas by then, except
possibly southern de or south coastal section of nj. There is
some cold advection behind this system, but no big surge of
arctic air, and temps are forecast to remain near or somewhat
above normal, even as surface high pressure builds in from the
west through the end of the week.

Meanwhile a mid- upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the
eastern u.S., while another shortwave trof begins to eject out
of the southwest. Winds aloft become southwest and begin to
bring increasing cloud and moisture into the mid-atlantic. Light
precip is forecast to develop and spread northeast into the area
on Saturday, or possibly late Friday night in delmarva.

Confidence in the time of arrival is relatively low, and any
rain amounts on Saturday should be light. Temps should be warm
enough to avoid any sig snow or ice with this event.

Saturday night looks more favorable for significant rain as uvv
and warm advctn increase ahead of the upper trof and deepening
sfc low, both moving northeast into the great lakes. A warm
front is forecast to move north through the area early Sunday
resulting in mild temps and more showery precip in the sfc low
warm sector during the day. A cold front passage late in the day
should end the precip.

High pressure is expected to build into the area early next
week, bringing fair wx an a return to near normal temps for late
feb.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. Increasing high clouds early then mid-level
clouds arrive towards dawn. Light winds from the N mostly.

Wednesday...VFR early then lowering CIGS as snow overspreads from
the SW during the morning. Phl fcst beginning time is 15z presently.

Sharply lowering vsbys then CIGS (ifr or lifr) after snow begins.

Precip will mix with or change to sleet across the SRN terminals
during the afternoon. Rain snow mix at kphl after 21z (limited
confid). Winds mostly E or SE around 10 knots.

Outlook...

Thursday... MVFR or lower conditions are possible in the
morning, improving toVFR by the afternoon. Winds becoming W nw
between 10-15 knots with some gustiness. High confidence.

Friday...VFR conditions with northwesterly winds under 10
knots. High confidence.

Saturday... GenerallyVFR conditions early but possibly lowering
to MVFR in the afternoon. Light southeast winds.

Saturday night... Widespread MVFR ifr conditions expected in rain
and fog. Variable winds mostly less than 10 kt. Moderate
confidence.

Sunday... Conditions should improve toVFR MVFR but lower at
times in showers. South winds becoming gusty and shifting to
west late in the day. Low confidence on timing.

Marine
Winds and seas could reach small craft advisory criteria as
early as Wednesday afternoon on the coastal waters, and will
likely continue Wednesday night.

Outlook...

Thursday... Seas building to SCA levels by Thursday am on ocean
waters with west winds gusting 20 to 25 kt.

Friday Saturday... Seas winds dipping below SCA by early Friday
morning with sub-sca conditions prevailing through Saturday.

Sunday... SCA conditions possible in gusty SW winds and building
seas.

Tides coastal flooding
Northeast flow develops late tonight, and then east to southeast
flow increases on Wednesday as low pressure approaches from the
south and west. The higher of the two high tide cycles will occur
Wednesday morning, when departures should be around 1 2 foot above
normal. Minor coastal flooding thresholds may be touched in some
spots Wednesday morning, but not anticipating widespread minor
coastal flooding advisory. Although locally minor coastal flooding
cannot be ruled out, do not think it will be widespread enough to
warrant a coastal flood advisory for the high tide Wednesday morning
at this time. Elevated tides may continue into Thursday morning.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter weather advisory from 10 am Wednesday to 1 am est
Thursday for paz105.

Winter weather advisory from 7 am to 9 pm est Wednesday for
paz070-071-104-106.

Winter weather advisory from 10 am Wednesday to 6 am est
Thursday for paz054-055-061-062.

Winter storm warning from 10 am Wednesday to 1 am est Thursday
for paz060-101>103.

Nj... Winter weather advisory from 10 am Wednesday to 1 am est
Thursday for njz008>010-012>015.

Winter weather advisory from 7 am to 9 pm est Wednesday for
njz016>027.

Winter weather advisory from 10 am Wednesday to 6 am est
Thursday for njz001-007.

De... Winter weather advisory from 7 am to 9 pm est Wednesday for
dez001.

Winter weather advisory from 7 am to 4 pm est Wednesday for
dez002>004.

Md... Winter weather advisory from 7 am to 4 pm est Wednesday for
mdz015-019-020.

Winter storm warning from 7 am to 4 pm est Wednesday for
mdz008-012.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm Wednesday to 6 am est Thursday
for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Amc
near term... Johnson mps
short term... Johnson
long term... Amc
aviation... Amc o'hara
marine... Amc johnson
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 4 mi54 min Calm G 1 30°F 39°F1036.9 hPa (-0.0)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 14 mi54 min N 6 G 7 33°F 34°F1036.4 hPa (-0.4)
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 15 mi60 min 1035.8 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 28 mi60 min 33°F 39°F1035.9 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 31 mi54 min N 7 G 8.9 33°F 38°F1036.2 hPa (-0.3)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 32 mi54 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 33°F 39°F1036.9 hPa (-0.0)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 40 mi144 min Calm 31°F 1036 hPa19°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 43 mi54 min E 5.1 G 6 34°F 1036.8 hPa (-0.0)
FSNM2 43 mi60 min NE 6 G 6 34°F 1035.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 44 mi60 min ENE 5.1 G 6 35°F 38°F1036.5 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi60 min 33°F 38°F1035.7 hPa
CPVM2 49 mi54 min 35°F 13°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE15 mi63 minN 310.00 miFair31°F10°F43%1036.5 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD18 mi4 hrsNNE 47.00 miOvercast30°F10°F43%1037.2 hPa

Wind History from ILG (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE6CalmSE4CalmE4NW8CalmNW3CalmW10W4W13
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2 days agoN7N8N5N8N9N8N7N6NE6E7E7E93CalmS4S6S8S10S9SE10SE8SE6CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Old Frenchtown Wharf, Maryland
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Old Frenchtown Wharf
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Tue -- 03:41 AM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:01 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:53 AM EST     1.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:53 AM EST     Full Moon
Tue -- 03:09 PM EST     -1.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:44 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:46 PM EST     2.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.50.90.3-0.1-0.20.10.71.31.71.91.61.10.4-0.3-0.8-1-0.9-0.40.41.42.22.72.82.6

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
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Tue -- 12:15 AM EST     -1.73 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:13 AM EST     0.05 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:28 AM EST     2.14 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:00 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:03 AM EST     -0.02 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:53 AM EST     Full Moon
Tue -- 12:33 PM EST     -2.41 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:20 PM EST     0.02 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:44 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:14 PM EST     2.36 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:33 PM EST     -0.04 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.7-1.6-1.2-0.51.11.72.12.11.60.4-1.5-2.1-2.4-2.4-2.1-1.7-0.91.322.32.21.81.1-0.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.