Tuesday, September18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Charles, MD

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Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 7:07PM Tuesday September 18, 2018 5:21 PM EDT (21:21 UTC) Moonrise 2:36PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 441 Pm Edt Tue Sep 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm edt this evening...
Rest of this afternoon..N winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Isolated showers.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 441 Pm Edt Tue Sep 18 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build over the waters Wednesday into Thursday before moving offshore later in the week. A cold front will approach this weekend, then stall just south of the waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charles, MD
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location: 39.57, -75.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 181959
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
359 pm edt Tue sep 18 2018

Synopsis
A cold front continues to move offshore early this evening,
pushing the remnants of florence out to sea. High pressure
builds in from the north and west on Wednesday, then moves off
the northeast coast on Thursday. A cold front passes through the
region late Friday, then may become stationary over the mid-
atlantic into the start of the new week as high pressure builds
to the north.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
4 pm update... Showers storms have shifted south toward the coast
and we no longer expect flash flooding so we have cancelled the
flash flood watch.

3pm... Dynamic situation unfolding as a cold front continues to
push across the area north to south. This front is associated
with post-tropical low from florence that has moved off to the
north and east. A flash flood watch remains in effect for areas
along the i-95 corridor where 1 to 2+ inches of rain has fallen
within the past few hours. With the front crossing right through
this area as of mid afternoon the heaviest showers and storms
have begun to shift south but still seeing responses on area
creeks and streams so will not make any further cancellations to
the watch at this moment. Otherwise, heading through the latter
part of this afternoon into this evening heaviest
showers storms with the front shift south toward the coast with
the front and then come to an end through early this evening as
the front clears the area. Given the instability and pwats over
2 inches could still see some heavy downpours towards the coast
and possibly some urban and small stream type flooding here
though don't expect this area to see flash flooding. The system
will have cleared the area by the overnight with cooler and
drier air moving in on NW winds. Lows will range from around 60
across the southern poconos to the mid to upper 60s along and
south of the i-95 corridor.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday
Fairly quiet day on tap for Wednesday. The low will be well off
the coast to the east with high pressure building into ontario
and quebec. This will set up a continuing northerly flow so
drier, more comfortable air will continue to advect in. With the
winds out of the north, don't have as much concern for stratus
as we did earlier so expecting an overall partly to mostly sunny
day with highs generally in the upper 70s to low 80s. It will
be a bit cooler though across the southern poconos and far
northern nj where highs will only be in the low to mid 70s.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
High pressure over eastern canada continues to nose its way
southward into the northeast u.S. Wednesday night, pushing a
backdoor cold front south through the region by Thursday
morning. High pressure will then be over the eastern seaboard on
Thursday. Although temperatures will be a bit cooler, humidity
levels will begin to creep up due to onshore flow. Highs will
top off in the low to mid 70s for most of the region, and
surface dew points will slowly creep up into the lower and
middle 60s. Relatively comfortable compared to the tropical
moisture of early this week, but still a bit on the humid side.

Onshore flow may also result in widespread low clouds throughout
the day.

High pressure moves offshore Thursday night, then return flow
behind the high results in a surge of warmer and more humid air
ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures will approach
80 for highs on Thursday, but surface dewpoints will approach 70
once again late in the day. Low pressure moves through eastern
canada on Friday, and this drags a cold front through the
northeast and mid-atlantic late Friday Friday night. The bulk of
the upper level energy will remain well to the north, so
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible with the
passage of the front, but at this time, the strongest activity
should stay north of the region.

Thereafter, low confidence forecast for the weekend. Cold front
becomes nearly stationary south of DELMARVA over the mid-
atlantic as high pressure builds to the north. Some mid-level
shortwave energy will interact with the front, producing at
least scattered showers and possible thunderstorms Saturday and
Sunday. The question is: how far north will that activity be
able to go and how far south will the activity be suppressed due
to high pressure building in from the north? High pressure
moves off the northeast coast by Monday, and then the front will
begin to lift north as a warm front. Widespread precip chances
better for Monday and Tuesday. For now, will generally run with
low chance pops over the weekend, and then have pops increasing
from south to north by the start of the new work week. At least
the southern poconos and northern nj for Saturday and possibly
most of Sunday as well.

Aviation 20z Tuesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Through tonight... Showers and storms along a cold front will
likely bring continuing restrictions to MVFR ifr until this
evening for kmiv kacy. Meanwhile, while some restrictions are
still occuring at sites along the i-95 corridor these should
improve by 21z as the front continues to clear the area with
showers ending. Kabe krdg are atVFR and should remain so
through the TAF period. Otherwise, by 0z expect all other sites
to beVFR as well with mainly just scattered high clouds through
the remainder of the night. Winds generally N NW 5-10 knots.

Wednesday...VFR with N NW winds continuing around 5-10 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday... Areas of low stratus
possible with MVFR conditions through Thursday morning. Cigs
should lift toVFR sometime Thursday afternoon. Lgt vrb winds
become NE 5 kt or less Thursday morning, then SE in the
afternoon.

Thursday night through Friday... MainlyVFR. Winds shift to sw
and increase to around 10 knots by Friday afternoon.

Friday night through Saturday... Scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible with the passage of a cold front.

Conditions should dry out by Saturday afternoon. S winds 5-10 kt
Friday night become NW 8-12 kt Saturday afternoon.

Sunday... MainlyVFR. Scattered showers possible.

Marine
As of mid afternoon, wave heights over the ocean are still
around 5 feet but SW winds are below SCA levels. Expect seas to
diminish by early this evening with conditions likely remaining
just below SCA levels through tonight. Winds will shift to N nw
this evening behind a cold front and increase to around 15
gusting up to 20 knots by Wednesday morning. Also, there will
continue to be some showers and storms over the waters into this
evening and these could produce locally strong winds, higher
seas and well as reduced visibilities.

For Wednesday, conditions will be hovering near SCA levels over
the ocean waters with northerly winds eventually shifting to
northeast with speeds of 15 to 20 and gusts potentially up to 25
knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday night... Winds should be below
sca levels, but seas on the ocean should remain elevated around
5 feet Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Sub-sca conditions
Thursday night.

Friday through Saturday... Conditions build to SCA levels Friday
afternoon and Saturday with the passage of a cold front. Winds
shift from the S on Friday to the NW on Saturday. There should
be a brief respite from SCA conditions Thursday night before
these conditions potentially return by late Friday as flow turns
sw ahead of the next cold front.

Sunday... Sub-sca conditions expected.

Rip currents...

the moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents
will continue through this evening due to waves up to 5 feet and
long-period swells.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for
anz450>455.

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Fitzsimmons
short term... Fitzsimmons
long term... Mps
aviation... Fitzsimmons mps
marine... Fitzsimmons mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 9 mi34 min NE 6 G 9.9 79°F 71°F1007.3 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 20 mi34 min N 8.9 G 11 77°F 70°F1007.1 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 29 mi34 min N 6 G 7 75°F 75°F1007.8 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 34 mi34 min 79°F 74°F1007.1 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 36 mi34 min NNW 18 G 19 76°F 77°F1006.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 38 mi34 min N 8 G 9.9 78°F 1007.6 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 38 mi40 min N 5.1 G 7 79°F 78°F1007.4 hPa
FSNM2 38 mi34 min N 8 G 9.9 79°F 1007.8 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 44 mi112 min WSW 2.9 83°F 1006 hPa75°F
CPVM2 45 mi34 min 76°F 73°F
44063 - Annapolis 48 mi32 min N 12 G 16 77°F 1008.1 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 49 mi34 min 77°F 1007.5 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD13 mi96 minVar 47.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F69°F79%1007.7 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE21 mi31 minN 910.00 miOvercast78°F71°F79%1007.3 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------------------SW8SW9SW9SW10S10W3N3N64Calm
1 day ago--------E3----------------------NE4--------------
2 days ago------------------------------NE9--E7--E6------E7

Tide / Current Tables for Charlestown, Northeast River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.