Tuesday, March19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North East, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 7:15PM Tuesday March 19, 2019 7:04 PM EDT (23:04 UTC) Moonrise 4:43PMMoonset 5:33AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 625 Pm Edt Tue Mar 19 2019
Tonight..S winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 625 Pm Edt Tue Mar 19 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build overhead through tonight before settling to the south Wednesday. Low pressure will move northward along the coast Wednesday night and it will pass through our area Thursday. High pressure will return for late in the week into the weekend. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters late Thursday through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North East, MD
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location: 39.58, -75.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 192223
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
623 pm edt Tue mar 19 2019

Synopsis
High pressure over our region will gradually shift to our northeast
by later Wednesday. On Thursday, a cold front will approach from the
northwest, and will combine with a developing coastal low to bring
rain to the region. Another cold front will cross the region Friday.

Colder air and gusty winds move in behind the front by Friday night.

Dry weather returns Saturday with gusty winds continuing before
diminishing by Sunday with high pressure building in. Another cold
front may approach early next week.

Near term through Wednesday
For the 630 pm update, adjusted the temperature and dew points based
on the latest observations. The temperatures were initially adjusted
upward for many based on this, then the cooling trend was slowed for
areas west of a sea breeze prior to sunset. Temperatures were
adjusted downward east of the sea breeze due to a wind off the
chilly water. Radar data shows the sea breeze boundary moving inland
across central to southern new jersey.

Otherwise, lingering cumulus across the northern areas will quickly
diminish through early this evening as daytime heating is lost with
the sky becoming mainly clear. With high pressure remaining overhead
through tonight, this will result in good radiational cooling so our
low temperature forecast is a little below the model consensus.

Generally expect lows in the 20s, except around 30 across the urban
corridor, coastal nj and areas along the delaware bay.

The aformentioned high will slip off to the east-northeast through
Wednesday as low pressure begins to organize well to our south. This
will result in a south or southeast flow across the area with highs
inland generally in the low to mid 50s. It will be a few degrees
cooler right along the nj coast due to the marine influence as well
as over the southern poconos. The day should begin mainly sunny but
expect some mid and high clouds to begin to increase from the south
in the afternoon associated with the leading edge of moisture from a
developing low off the southeast coast.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday
The main story for this period will be a developing coastal low
which will move northward impacting the area later Wednesday
night through Thursday. To begin the period Wednesday evening,
incipient low will be in the very early stages of development
off the SE coast near the base of a digging upper level trough
over the east. Meanwhile, high pressure will be continuing to
depart to our east. This low will slowly take shape near the
carolina coast through Wednesday night as shortwave energy digs
south into the base of the upper level trough. Moisture plume
associated with the system will result in rain developing across
the area from south to north by late at night. With the high
moving off the coast and a resultant SE flow, temperatures
should be mild enough for this to be rain just about everywhere
but the exception will be the southern poconos where it could
start briefly as a rain snow mix or wet snow late Wednesday
night or early Thursday before changing to rain. No accumulation
expected though.

Thursday is shaping up to be a rainy day across the forecast
area as the developing low moves northward up the coast. That
said there is uncertainty in the low's exact track as well as
how quickly it develops so this will have an impact on just how
heavy the rain will be across the area and where the heaviest
rain will fall. At this point though, thinking is with basin
average total rain amounts looking to generally be around an
inch or less we shouldn't have any significant hydro issues.

However this will need to be monitored as some of the guidance
is showing heavier amounts. Highs Thursday will range from the
mid 40s over the southern poconos to the mid 50s over portions
of the delmarva.

The storm will continue to deepen as it moves north toward long
island into southern new england through Thursday night. While
rain should continue into Thursday evening the progressive
nature of the system should result in rain moving out by Friday
morning. Beyond this time increasing winds will be the
concern... Especially by late Friday as pressure gradient
tightens as storm rapidly deepens over new england. Again, still
uncertainty in the forecast details but expect that by
afternoon widespread wind NW gusts in at least the 20 to 30 mph
range will be doable. There should be a break in precip through
the morning however by afternoon as upper level low dives se
through area along with a cold front this will result in some
showers developing that could be mixed with snow over the
southern poconos.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
A couple of lingering rain or snow showers are possible early Friday
night, but the trend will be for drying out in the northwest flow.

That northwest flow then becomes the main story, as the concern from
Friday night through Saturday will be gusty wind potential. High
confidence in high pressure building in over the great lakes with a
ridge over the central us. Wind potential will be partly contingent
on the strength and track of the storm from Thursday, which is a
little less certain. Current indications suggest that storm will
deepen significantly as it moves into the maritimes. That would
create a tight pressure gradient with the building high to the west,
leading to strong winds Friday night and Saturday. Winds aloft are
not especially impressive, however, so even with good mixing there
will be a limit to just how high we can gust. Current thinking is
that near advisory level winds are possible, but not expecting a
repeat of the high wind event we saw a few weeks ago. Behind the
front Friday, a respectable shot of late season cold air also moves
in. 850mb temperatures Friday night and into Saturday bottom out
near to below -10c. Strong winds will stop the bottom from falling
out Friday night, and the strong march Sun will allow for a decent
daytime recovery Saturday, but with the gusty winds the air will
still have a wintry feel. As winds diminish Saturday night, suspect
we will see better radiational cooling even as the air mass starts
to moderate, so lows should be similar to Friday night.

By Sunday, the high pressure to the west builds in and moves to our
south. Temperatures should recover quickly from the cool start, as
heights rise and the air mass moderates further. Clear skies along
with the high Sun angle suggest potential for overachieving
temperatures that day, so went on the warm side. Early next week,
confidence decreases as a west-to-east oriented front approaches
from the north. This front will be an important player next week.

Some timing differences exist on its passage, with the 19.12z gfs
and ec faster than the 19.12z gem. This creates high uncertainty for
Monday's temperatures. A slower passage would allow for another warm
day, but a faster passage would mean much cooler weather since this
front divides a rather impressive temperature gradient. A faster
frontal passage would also introduce a greater shower risk for
Monday, while a slower passage would delay that to Monday night or
Tuesday. Currently leaning more towards the faster GFS and ec
guidance as the trend seems to be in that direction. Should the
front only partly move through Monday, a large north to south high
temperature gradient is very possible, and tried to hint at that in
the grids. By Tuesday, cooler temperatures are likely everywhere.

Lingering showers possible early to the south Tuesday but the trend
should be for drying out as the front pushes further south and
canadian high pressure moves in.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. Winds becoming light and variable.

Wednesday... ContinuingVFR with winds becoming SW 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...VFR conditions expected. Showers possible
late Wednesday.

Thursday... MVFR or ifr conditions develop during the day with
rain developing. East winds around 10 knots.

Thursday night... MVFR or ifr conditions with rain possible
early, improving overnight. Winds becoming northwest, with gusts
around 20 knots overnight.

Friday... MainlyVFR conditions expected with a chance of
scattered showers. Gusty northwest winds of at least 20-30
knots.

Friday night-Saturday... GenerallyVFR, though MVFR possible early
Friday night at rdg and abe. Gusty northwest winds sustained at 15
to 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt.

Saturday night-Sunday... VFR conditions continue with winds shifting
to west and diminishing to around 10 kt with gusts below 20 kt.

Marine
Tranquil conditions on tap through Wednesday. Winds generally
e SE around 10 knots tonight increasing to 10-15 knots by late
Wednesday. Seas generally 1-2 feet.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday... Winds and seas increase
with marginal SCA conditions possible Thursday north of
developing coastal low. Also, expect rain late Wednesday night
through Thursday.

Thursday night-Friday... Small craft advisory conditions likely
as low pressure slides past the area.

Friday night-Saturday... Northwesterly gales likely. Gusts to 40 kt
possible Friday night. Winds may start to diminish Saturday
afternoon and especially into the evening, possibly to SCA levels.

Seas should run generally 4 to 6 ft.

Saturday night-Sunday... Trend will be for diminishing winds with a
gradual shift from northwesterly to westerly. SCA conditions should
linger for the first half of Saturday night before dropping to sub-
sca. Seas diminishing to 2 to 4 ft by the latter half of Saturday
night and into Sunday.

Tides coastal flooding
Developing low pressure is forecast to move up the east coast on
Wednesday and Thursday. The low is expected to pass over or near our
region on Thursday night. An onshore flow is anticipated to develop
in advance of the low from Wednesday into Thursday. Tidal departures
will likely be on the increase at that time.

Wednesday evening's high tide should not pose any problem. It is
possible that we could see some spotty minor flooding with Thursday
morning's high tide.

Our main focus is on the Thursday evening high tide. Tidal
departures of +0.8 to +0.9 feet would begin to create minor flooding
at that time along the coasts of new jersey and delaware, along
delaware bay and on the tidal delaware river. Departures of greater
than +1.0 foot would produce some noticeable impacts on the
coastal tidal communities in our region, with some roadway flooding.

Also, moderate to heavy rainfall could worsen any roadway and poor
drainage area flooding.

Based on the present forecast we will continue to keep an eye on the
Thursday evening high tide for a possible coastal flood advisory.

Once the low moves away to our northeast, an offshore wind will
develop and the potential for minor coastal flooding will come to an
end.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... O'brien
near term... Fitzsimmons gorse
short term... Fitzsimmons
long term... O'brien
aviation... Fitzsimmons o'brien
marine... Fitzsimmons o'brien
tides coastal flooding... Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 6 mi35 min W 4.1 G 6 1029.1 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 16 mi35 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 48°F 44°F1028.9 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 17 mi35 min 1028.3 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 30 mi35 min 49°F 46°F1028.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 32 mi35 min SW 8 G 8.9 47°F 48°F1029.4 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 33 mi35 min S 6 G 8.9 45°F 45°F1029 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 42 mi35 min S 4.1 G 8 47°F 45°F1028.8 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 42 mi155 min E 5.1 49°F 1029 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 42 mi35 min SE 9.9 G 11 46°F 1029.1 hPa
FSNM2 42 mi47 min SE 8.9 G 9.9 46°F 1028.6 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 47 mi35 min 49°F 46°F1028 hPa
CPVM2 48 mi35 min 47°F 13°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD17 mi77 minS 77.00 miFair46°F17°F32%1029.1 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE17 mi74 minNNW 910.00 miFair50°F12°F22%1028.8 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5Calm------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmN6NE3NE6NE7S8S10S12SE10S7
1 day ago----------------------E6NE7E7E9NE8NE7NE9NE7--CalmE6E6S7
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Old Frenchtown Wharf, Maryland
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Old Frenchtown Wharf
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Tue -- 03:19 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:43 AM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:09 PM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:33 PM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.610.50.30.30.71.31.92.32.42.11.60.90.3-0.2-0.4-0.30.20.91.82.52.92.92.6

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:11 AM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:17 AM EDT     2.13 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:21 PM EDT     -2.27 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:06 PM EDT     0.10 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:57 PM EDT     2.28 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:09 PM EDT     -0.08 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.8-1.6-1.2-0.51.11.82.121.50.2-1.4-2-2.3-2.2-1.9-1.4-0.51.52.12.32.11.50.6-1.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.