Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North East, MD

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Sunrise 5:34AMSunset 8:35PM Thursday June 20, 2019 9:30 AM EDT (13:30 UTC) Moonrise 10:18PMMoonset 7:29AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 736 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Friday afternoon...
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog this morning. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms this morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this morning.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 736 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure tracking to the northwest will sweep a cold front through the area late today and tonight. High pressure nudging southward from canada will dominate over the waters through the weekend. A warm front will then cross the waters Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North East, MD
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location: 39.58, -75.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 201020
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
620 am edt Thu jun 20 2019

Synopsis
An area of low pressure will pass north of the region today. A cold
front will move through tonight. High pressure will gradually build
in Friday night and remain nearby through Sunday. A warm front is
expected to move through Sunday night. A frontal system will likely
affect the area Monday and Tuesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Warm front continues to lift north through northern new jersey
and eastern pennsylvania. Showers producing locally heavy rain
are lifting to the north, and seem to be weakening somewhat.

The flash flood warnings are being converted to flood warnings,
and flood warnings will remain in place for most of the day.

Persistent southerly flow increases behind the passage of the
warm front. This will usher a warm and humid airmass into the
region, and with abundant moisture leftover from the rainfall
yesterday and through this morning, this will push surface
dewpoints well into the lower 70s. Combined with highs in the
80s, the heat index will approach 90 south of i-76, and will be
in the lower 90s across much of southern new jersey and
delmarva.

Low pressure over the great lakes lifts to the northeast
throughout the day, and this drags a cold front east late in the
day. A pre-frontal trough develops out ahead of the front, and
this trough will trigger another round of showers and
thunderstorms starting late in the afternoon.

Sb CAPE values will rise to 1500-2000 j kg across the northern
half of the forecast area and to 2000-3000 j kg across delmarva,
southern new jersey, and southeast pennsylvania. 0-6 km bulk
shear will be around 35-45 kt, and pwats will be up around 2
inches. There is a slight risk for severe weather later today
and tonight, and thunderstorms that develop will be capable of
torrential rain, damaging winds, and frequent and deadly
lightning strikes.

With the threat of heavy rain once again, the flash flood watch
remains in effect for all of southeast pennsylvania, most of
new jersey, and northern portions of delmarva.

Given areas where there is already flooding occurring, it will
not take much rainfall to result in additional flooding.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
Flash flood watch remains in effect until 1 am.

Cold front slowly works its way into the western portions of the
forecast area this evening, and then crosses the region during the
overnight.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through much of the evening
hours, and then storms lose their intensity as the evening
progresses with the loss of diurnal heating. Pwats drop to around
1.75 inches, and heavy rain remains a threat for most of tonight.

Showers and storms taper off after midnight, and some dryer air
begins to work its way in from the north and west. Surface dewpoints
begin to drop, but with abundant moisture on the ground, can expect
fog to develop once again.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Overview...

we will finally see some changes in the long term, as the mid-
atlantic will for a few days find itself downstream of a ridge over
the great lakes and upstream a departing trough associated with a
departing surface low. This will mean a well-deserved multi-day
break in rainfall across our area, as high pressure builds in to the
northwest and guides any ridge-riding convective disturbances to our
south. And such disturbances will exist, as the ridging to our west
is not very long in wavelength, and ample troughing continues to
exist further west, which will keep the pattern active over the
plains and midwest. That then raises questions for our weather going
further into next week. It appears likely the ridge to our west will
start to flatten out, with renewed troughing pushing into the great
lakes. Thus, it is likely we will be dealing with another frontal
system by early next week. Early indications are that we will not
deal with such a prolonged and impactful stretch of unsettled
weather. However, the one constant in the hemispheric pattern
remains a seemingly unbreakable block over greenland, which should
briefly relax over the weekend but then looks to build right back in
next week. Because of this, even as longwave ridging attempts to
build over the conus, we continue to see frequent troughing over
southern canada with the trough unable to lift out. This leaves us
vulnerable to additional frontal disturbances even in a pattern
which is trying to trend warmer and drier overall. We may get there
eventually, but for now after the break over the weekend it appears
next week will be on the unsettled side with a return of higher
humidity and occasional shower and storm chances.

Dailies...

Friday... Deepening low pressure will be pulling away from the
region. Gusty northwesterly flow is likely given the pressure
gradient of this unseasonably strong low. Gusts to 30mph are
possible. Lingering showers are also possible especially in the
morning, but should depart from west to east with all areas likely
dry by early to mid afternoon. Highs running a few to several
degrees below normal with cooler air to the northwest being advected
in and the trough axis moving overhead then swinging gradually to
the east.

Saturday-Sunday... A pleasant and quiet weekend awaits us as high
pressure moves overhead. The trough from Friday will still not have
fully pulled away by Saturday, and flow will remain northerly or
northwesterly, so this will keep temperatures a little below normal
even with sunshine. By Sunday, winds turn out of the west as the
trough pushes further off to the east, and we start to advect in
warmer air. So Sunday looks several degrees warmer than Saturday,
with highs mostly in the mid 80s and dew points creeping up a little
but still comfortable.

Monday-Tuesday... A warm frontal passage is expected Sunday night or
early Monday as low pressure tracks into the great lakes. Time
constraints prevented any detailed analysis for this period, but the
chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to return. In addition,
behind the warm front, higher dew points and warmer temperatures are
expected, and some areas may see highs approach 90 by Monday.

Mid-week beyond... Low confidence. Guidance is widely spread on
whether the early week system or an additional frontal system may
continue to impact the region, or if high pressure and hotter
weather will build in. No strong preference at this time.

Aviation 10z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Most terminals will likely be ifr and locally lifr early this
morning. This should gradually improve to MVFR andVFR through mid-
morning, but low confidence on the speed of improvements. Light and
variable winds will turn southwesterly at 5 to 10 kt through the
day. Tstms possible across the region this afternoon. Some storms
could be strong to severe with gusty winds.

Tonight... A period of MVFR or ifr ceilings is possible. By late
tonight, a cold frontal passage will turn winds more northwesterly,
which should start to scour out the lower ceilings towards daybreak
Friday. Showers possible with a lingering TSTM also possible early
southeast of phl.

Outlook...

Friday-Friday night... MVFR possible in the morning, but improving
toVFR. Northwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts as high as 30 kt,
diminishing to 10 kt overnight.

Saturday-Sunday... VFR. High confidence. Northwest winds of 10 kt
gusting to 20 kt on Saturday becoming westerly or southwesterly at 5
to 10 kt Sunday.

Sunday night-Monday... Periods of cig and vsby restrictions
possible along with scattered showers and tstms. Southwest winds
of 5 to 10 kt.

Marine
Visibilities have dropped to under one mile along the coast, so
will go ahead and issue a marine dense fog advisory that will
run until 10 am. Vsbys should improve then, but it is possible
that the marine dense fog advisory may have to be extended for
the rest of the day, depending on how bad the fog is and if it
lifts or not.

Otherwise, sub-small craft advisory conditions on tap for
today.

Showers and thunderstorms with frequent lightning, heavy rain
resulting in lowered vsby, and wind gusts in excess of 34 kt will
affect the waters later today and tonight.

Sca conditions develop on the waters after midnight tonight. Fog is
possible again.

Outlook...

Friday-Friday night... SCA conditions expected and a period of
northwesterly gales is possible especially over the southern marine
zones. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Conditions may drop below SCA Friday night as
seas fall to 2 to 4 ft but gusts will likely linger close to 25 kt.

Saturday-Monday... SCA conditions may linger into early Saturday but
sub-sca conditions expected for most of the weekend into early next
week.

Rip currents...

there is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at
the nj and de ocean beaches today. Winds become south with waves in
the surf zone about 3 feet.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Flash flood watch through late tonight for paz054-055-060>062-
070-071-101>106.

Nj... Flash flood watch through late tonight for njz001-007>010-
012>027.

De... Flash flood watch through late tonight for dez001.

Md... Flash flood watch through late tonight for mdz008-012.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until 10 am edt this morning for anz430-431-
450>455.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 6 pm edt Friday
for anz430-431-451>455.

Small craft advisory from 8 am to 6 pm edt Friday for anz450.

Synopsis... O'brien
near term... Mps
short term... Mps
long term... O'brien
aviation... O'brien
marine... Mps o'brien


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 6 mi48 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 76°F 75°F1003.1 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 16 mi54 min SW 1.9 G 4.1 76°F 73°F1003.2 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 17 mi48 min 1002.6 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 30 mi48 min 72°F 73°F1002.8 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 32 mi48 min SSW 6 G 9.9 76°F 75°F1003.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 42 mi48 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 77°F 78°F1002.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 42 mi48 min S 4.1 G 5.1 76°F 1002.8 hPa
FSNM2 42 mi54 min S 2.9 G 7 76°F 1002.8 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 47 mi42 min 71°F 72°F1002.5 hPa
CPVM2 48 mi42 min 75°F 75°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD17 mi45 minSSW 710.00 miOvercast77°F73°F89%1003 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE17 mi39 minS 510.00 miOvercast76°F73°F94%1003 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S5SW4CalmS6S7S5S7SW4S6S3------------------CalmS3SW4SW7
1 day agoCalmS3SW5S6SW9S6SW8W11W9--SW7------------------CalmCalmS5S3
2 days agoCalm53W7SE5S7SW6SW9--W10
G20
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Tide / Current Tables for Old Frenchtown Wharf, Maryland
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Old Frenchtown Wharf
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Thu -- 12:16 AM EDT     2.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:39 AM EDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:36 PM EDT     3.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT     1.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.42.11.61.210.91.11.62.22.93.53.83.83.63.12.51.91.41.111.21.62.1

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
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Thu -- 03:21 AM EDT     -2.22 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:09 AM EDT     0.09 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:13 AM EDT     2.27 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:55 PM EDT     -0.08 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:09 PM EDT     -1.48 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:24 PM EDT     0.06 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:14 PM EDT     1.70 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.8-1.6-2-2.2-2.2-1.9-1.4-0.51.322.32.21.81.2-0.3-1.2-1.5-1.4-1-0.60.81.41.71.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.