Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 11:47 AM   Moonset 1:24 AM

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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 835 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am edt Thursday through Thursday afternoon - .
Tonight - N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Isolated showers with patchy drizzle. Thu - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Thu night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Fri night - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Sat night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Sun - NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Mon - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 946 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis - A cold front will sag southward into central florida and adjacent waters tonight. The cold front will become stationary over the southern waters Thursday then return northward as a warm front this weekend.
Gulf stream hazards - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Tuesday, may 14th.
41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 29 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS61 KLWX 160131 AAA AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 931 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak area of high pressure will build Thursday into Friday, leading to drier conditions compared to the previous days.
Another slow moving low pressure system will bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances for the weekend before weak high pressure returns early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Low pressure off of the NJ coast will continue to fill in as it becomes vertically stacked with upper low. Patchy light drizzle should end after midnight as low level covergence weakens. Some clearing may occur overnight which may lead to patchy dense fog given moist conditions near the surface.

Mid-upper level ridge will build overhead by the end of the day Thu and crest over the area by daybreak Friday. Expect mainly fair weather conditions Thu with a few pop-up showers possible Thu afternoon west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. T-storms are not anticipated at this time.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The low will continue to linger around the coast on Thursday, keeping more clouds around the I-95 corridor with ridging building in further west. While most places will be mostly dry throughout the day, cannot rule out a few isolated showers with any lingering low- level moisture around as a result of the departing low. Highs will be tricky, as areas that receive more breaks in the clouds will likely top out in the mid to upper 70s, whereas places with more clouds will be in the upper 60s to low 70s during the afternoon and early evening hours. Ridging will build more overhead by Thursday night, allowing drier conditions and lows in the 50s for most areas.

The next system will approach the area on Friday, increasing clouds and precipitation chances, especially along and west of the Blue Ridge. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s. Moisture increases by Friday night with increased rain chances and lows dipping down into the mid to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Overall the long term period looks to remain quite unsettled for the most part, with a brief respite likely towards the beginning of next week between areas of low pressure.

For the weekend, unfortunately it looks to be another wet one with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s on both days. This is due to a slow-moving trough that will be working its way eastward across the southern CONUS. The majority of shower and thunderstorm activity should occur on Saturday, but as the surface low associated with this system reaches the coast, it seems to slow down and some guidance even nearly stalls it off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.

By early next week, as the aforementioned low moves well off to our east, a ridge aloft builds in from the west. This will bring warmer and drier conditions back to the region. However, neither day poses a non-zero chance for thunderstorms. Pieces of upper-level energy will be sliding across the north side of the ridge, thus bringing at least a small chance for some afternoon storms.

By mid-week, we may have our next organized system moving through.
Whether that is Wednesday or Thursday is still a bit up in the air, but the combination of much warmer temperatures by then (likely in the low 80s or so) and higher humidity should yield a better chance of organized thunderstorm activity. This would likely come in the form of thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain during peak heating, before drifting eastward into the afternoon/evening hours.
We will be a bit more confident on that potential, as well as any severe weather potential, as we get a bit closer in time.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Cigs should improve somewhat tonight as some clearing takes place, however, this could lead to fog formation overnight particularly west of the Blue Ridge Mountains.

Low ceilings should gradually lift Thursday and could scatter out in some locations. However, there are indications low ceilings and/or fog may redevelop Thursday night into Friday morning. The next system will be approach late Friday, increasing the chance for showers and sub-VFR ceilings, especially Friday night.

An area of low pressure will slowly traverse the region Saturday into Sunday, bringing unsettled conditions to the terminals.
Sub-VFR conditions are likely during this time due to lowered CIGs and potential VSBY restrictions in heavier rain and/or thunderstorms.

MARINE
SCAs are in effect for most of the waters aside from the northern- most Potomac zone through this evening. The low will remain off the coast tonight into Thursday. An advisory will remain in effect for the bay and lower Potomac through the night as winds become more northerly. Deeper mixing should ensue Thursday with the wind field still in place, so the SCA will expand to all waters. Winds are forecast to gradually diminish Thursday night, but the advisory will likely need to be extended for some zones. Overall, lighter winds are expected Friday and Friday night as weak high pressure moves across the area.

A brief period of SCA conditions remain possible Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as an area of low pressure passes just south of the region. This will be especially true over middle and lower portions of the bay and lower tidal Potomac where a bit more channeling could occur. Numerous showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will accompany this system through Saturday into early Sunday.

Onshore easterly flow is expected on Saturday ahead of an approaching area of low pressure, and should be close to SCA criteria. Winds Saturday night into Sunday will gradually shift to north-northeasterly as the low slides across the region. Again, would expect winds to be at or near SCA criteria during this time.
This will especially be true across lower portions of the waters.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

As winds become northeast, then north, decreasing water levels should result.

Beyond today, the next threat for coastal flooding appears to be Friday into the weekend as south to southeasterly flow returns ahead of an approaching low pressure system from the Ohio River Valley.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ530>534- 537-539>541-543.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ535- 536-538-542.

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Chain Bridge, Washington, D.C., Tide feet

Chain Bridge
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Wed -- 02:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:09 AM EDT     2.92 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 09:26 AM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:24 PM EDT     2.96 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:06 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chain Bridge, D.C., Tide feet

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