Tuesday, August21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tuckerton, NJ

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Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 7:45PM Tuesday August 21, 2018 4:36 AM EDT (08:36 UTC) Moonrise 4:46PMMoonset 1:51AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 332 Am Edt Tue Aug 21 2018
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers early this morning. A slight chance of tstms late this morning and afternoon. A chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds around 15 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers early in the evening, then showers likely in the late evening and overnight.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Scattered tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Scattered showers and tstms early in the evening.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..N winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 332 Am Edt Tue Aug 21 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A warm front will gradually lift north across our area later today into tonight, then a cold front moves through on Wednesday. High pressure builds in Thursday and Friday, before shifting offshore and also to our south Friday night into Saturday, then remaining there Sunday and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tuckerton , NJ
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location: 39.6, -74.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 210748
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
348 am edt Tue aug 21 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will gradually lift north across our area later today
into tonight, then a cold front moves through on Wednesday. High
pressure builds in Thursday and Friday, before shifting offshore and
also to our south Friday night into Saturday, then remaining there
Sunday and Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A midlevel shortwave trough will be advancing eastward through the
midwest and great lakes region today, with an attendant surface low
lifting east-northeast from northern illinois currently to far
southeastern ontario by 00z Wednesday. A baroclinic zone extends
eastward from the surface low this morning through the
central southern mid-atlantic, and the big forecast question today
is how far north the associated warm front will lift in advance of
the midwest great lakes low.

Overall, models look a little too eager in returning the warm front
northward (as usual). As a result, I have kept the sky
cover temperature forecast rather pessimistic today, with mostly
cloudy to overcast conditions expected across the area and
temperatures somewhat below consensus guidance.

In advance of the midlevel shortwave trough, subtle perturbations
will eject eastward through the mid-atlantic, though none of them
appear to be particularly potent, at least as far as the 00z
operational model simulations suggest. Nevertheless, warm-air
advection atop the baroclinic zone should prove sufficient for the
development of (elevated) convection in much of the central mid-
atlantic today. The hi-res simulations initiate this convection to
the south and west of the CWA by early this afternoon before
progressing it northeastward into DELMARVA and portions of south-
central southeast pennsylvania after 18z. There is pretty good
agreement among the hrrr NAM nest wrf-arw nmm simulations regarding
this evolution, and given the large-scale lift phenomena involved,
followed this scenario rather closely in terms of pops wx grids and
their evolution over the course of the day.

There is some concern about the potential for locally heavy rainfall
with any of the convection that develops. Precipitable water values
will be increasing rapidly in the warm moist advection regime. The
hrrr and WRF simulations indicate pockets of 1-2+ inch QPF where the
stronger convective cores track (despite reasonably progressive cell
motions). However, this threat area is generally south of where the
very wet past few weeks has occurred. Moreover, the localized nature
of the threat and remaining questions regarding available
instability suggest to me the threat is not high enough at this
point to justify issuance of a flash flood watch. Nevertheless, the
threat of localized flooding exists, and should confidence increase
in a more widespread threat (especially farther north), a watch may
be required later today.

Notably, there are indications the convection that develops
along north of the retreating warm front may diminish with the loss
of daytime heating (i.E., farther north). This appears to be tied to
the associated perturbation shifting offshore by evening (with
downstream lift shunted eastward from the area). This further
justifies holding off on a flash flood watch at this time.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
As the surface low entering southeast canada continues its trek
along the saint lawrence valley tonight, a cold front will approach
the coastal mid-atlantic through the period. A retreating warm front
is expected to progress through the region during this period as
well, allowing a brief time window in which the warm sector of the
large-scale cyclone advances into the area. Of course, this will
occur after peak heating, which will likely impede development of
more substantial instability, particularly given fairly widespread
antecedent cloud cover and meager midlevel lapse rates.

As the story GOES this summer, tropospheric moisture content will be
anomalously high in the pre-frontal environment. Thus, locally heavy
rain with any convection remains the primary threat tonight. Have
continued the mention of this threat in the forecast. However, a lot
of question marks remain regarding the overall threat. One of the
biggest involves the degree of large-scale ascent available in the
cwa versus surrounding areas.

Specifically, there appear to be two portions of the large-scale
system that will aid in the development of fairly widespread convection.

The first will be shifting north-northeastward, coincident with
the canada surface low and a retreating 250-mb jet streak exiting
the northeast. The second is a southern-stream perturbation surging
eastward to the south of the area during the night. As convection
nocturnally weakens along the cold front progressing through the
appalachians, operational models clearly favor two regions with
a greater convective threat. The first is in portions of new york,
new england, and adjacent quebec (in closer proximity to the surface
low), and the second is to the south southeast of the CWA as the
southern-stream perturbation rounds the base of the larger-scale
trough late in the night. This leaves the CWA in between the
two more favorable regions. As such, questions remain regarding
the extent of the heavy rain threat, especially given the unfavorable
timing of the cold front. Therefore, no flash flood watch was issued
at this time.

Pops reach their maximum during the late evening to early overnight
period (high-chance to likely), with general lowering late in the
night as the strongest synoptic-scale lift begins to advance east of
the area.

Forecast lows are in the mid 60s in the poconos to the low-to-mid
70s in the urban corridor, delmarva, and the coastal areas.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Summary... A change in the pattern during midweek allows for a much
drier airmass to settle in for the second half of this week and into
the weekend. However, turning warmer to hot with increasing humidity
to end the weekend and especially early next week.

Synoptic setup... A sharpening upper-level trough is forecast to swing
across the great lakes, eastern canada and the northeast Wednesday
into Thursday. This trough looks progressive therefore it lifts
out Thursday night, with some ridging arriving from the west. This
ridge should build some late this week and to start the weekend
as a new trough slides across the midwest. This trough then may
weaken as it shifts across the great lakes and the northeast this
weekend, while an east to west ridge strengthens some across the
southern part of the u.S.

For Wednesday... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify from
the great lakes to the northeast by late Wednesday. This drives
surface low pressure well to our north during the day, with a cold
front shifting offshore by evening. Our region will be in the warm
sector prior to the cold fronts arrival and some showers and maybe a
few thunderstorms should be ongoing to start the day. Some
additional showers should occur during much of the day even behind
the cold front as cold air advection creates a bit more instability
before substantial drying moves in from the northwest. The strongest
cold air advection however is forecast to arrive during the night.

We placed the highest pops through about midday then gradually
lowered them into the evening hours. Due to the expectation of
ongoing showers and cloudiness which will act to hold down the
overall instability, the intensity of any thunderstorms should be
sub-severe. Given the cold air advection along with cyclonic flow,
areas of cloudiness may hang on for much of the night before
increasing subsidence arrives. A substantial dew point drop is
expected to occur during the course of Wednesday night under a north-
northwest breeze.

For Thursday and Friday... A strong upper-level trough moves across
our region during Thursday, however the flow is progressive and
therefore this feature should be offshore by Friday morning. This
will result in a cooler day Thursday with much drier low-level air.

Some guidance suggests that parts of our region may experience dew
points dropping into the mid and upper 40s during peak heating
Thursday. A narrow ridge is forecast to start overspreading our area
Friday, allowing surface high pressure to be over our area although
this feature starts to shift offshore Friday night.

For Saturday and Sunday... The pattern looks to undergo some changes
once again, with a short wave trough weakening as it tracks across
the great lakes to the northeast Saturday and Sunday. A ridge across
the southern states expands some and with high pressure anchored
offshore and to our south will result in a more southerly return
flow. This results in warm air advection and also with time the
moisture returns allowing for dew points to rise once again to the
humid levels. There looks to be a surface trough developing in our
vicinity Sunday, while the aforementioned short wave trough is
mostly glancing the area. It is less certain if this will be enough
to develop some convection given the moisture return and warmer
temperatures. For now, opted to keep the forecast dry given the
uncertainty.

For Monday... A ridge centered to our southwest is forecast to expand
a bit more to the north, with our area near the northern periphery
of it. This results in a more zonal flow regime with some energy
sliding eastward across the great lakes region. A cold front is
forecast to be draped well to our north, however a surface trough
should be in place given the warm to hot conditions and a weakness
in the surface pressure field. There is some potential for
convection to develop during the afternoon and evening especially,
however the overall focus for any development is less certain and
may be mostly tied to the surface trough. As of now, carried some
slight chance pops in the gridded database for the northwestern
zones. It looks rather warm hot with afternoon temperatures around
90 degrees for many places, and afternoon heat indices especially in
the i-95 urban corridor may be well into the 90s.

Aviation 08z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Through 12z... Conditions are expected to vary fromVFR to MVFR at
the terminals early this morning, with general cloud bases between
2000 and 5000 feet. Vsbys are expected to remainVFR at the
terminals given the low clouds. Winds east-northeast around or below
10 kts. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday...VFR to potentially MVFR CIGS will continue through the
day, with increasing chances of showers storms this afternoon,
moving in from the southwest. General timing looks to be after 19z
at the terminals. Once precipitation moves in, CIGS are expected to
become more solidly MVFR, with vsbys locally temporarily lowering as
well. Winds will be slowly shifting to a more southeasterly
direction with time during the day, with speeds ranging from 5 to 15
kts. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night... Prolonged sub-vfr conditions expected with a chance
of showers storms. Winds becoming more southerly around 10 kts or
so. Fairly low confidence overall, especially with timing of
precipitation and associated worse vsby cig restrictions.

Outlook...

Wednesday... MVFR ifr conditions possible to start, otherwiseVFR.

Some showers and thunderstorms though should be around before a cold
front shifts offshore, with local restrictions possible. Southwest
winds becoming west-northwest 10-15 knots.

Thursday through Saturday...VFR. Northwest winds 10-15 knots
Thursday, then becoming light and variable at night and continuing
Friday into Saturday.

Marine
East winds will become more southeasterly today and southerly southwesterly
tonight as a warm front moves through the coastal waters. Speeds
will generally be 10 to 20 kts, with gusts potentially approaching
advisory criteria after midnight. However, confidence is too
low at this point to issue a small craft advisory.

Seas will likely approach five feet on the atlantic waters late
tonight as winds become south southwest. However, as with the winds,
confidence in reaching criteria is low at this point. Waves of 2 to
4 feet are expected on delaware bay.

A chance of storms exists late this afternoon and tonight, with
local visibility restrictions and higher waves winds likely in their
proximity.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday... Southwest winds may gust to near 25 knots
to start Wednesday, the northwest winds may gust to near 25 knots at
times Thursday. Seas on the atlantic coastal waters should build to
near 5 feet Wednesday before subsiding some Thursday.

Friday and Saturday... The conditions are expected to be below small
craft advisory criteria as high pressure is mainly in place.

Rip currents...

there is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents
on the new jersey and delaware coasts today. Though onshore
flow and medium-period swell will persist, winds will be somewhat
lighter and swell heights will be a foot or so lower overall.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Gorse
near term... Cms
short term... Cms
long term... Gorse
aviation... Cms gorse
marine... Cms gorse


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 8 mi67 min NNW 1 60°F 1019 hPa59°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 17 mi37 min 1019 hPa (-1.5)
44091 33 mi37 min 74°F4 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 43 mi37 min E 5.1 G 6 67°F 72°F1019.6 hPa (-1.7)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 44 mi61 min E 6 G 7 68°F 73°F1018.8 hPa
BDSP1 47 mi37 min 69°F 75°F1019.1 hPa (-1.3)
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 48 mi37 min 1018.4 hPa (-1.3)

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ16 mi43 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds67°F66°F97%1018.7 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ23 mi1.7 hrsNE 49.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F63°F96%1020 hPa

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5N7N6NE7NE7NE9NE12E8E9NE9E9E9E11E12E9E5NE4CalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Tuckerton, Tuckerton Creek, New Jersey
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Tuckerton
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Tue -- 01:10 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:28 AM EDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:14 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:56 PM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.40.50.81.21.61.81.81.71.41.10.80.60.40.50.91.31.82.22.32.21.91.51.2

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:53 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:02 AM EDT     1.18 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:08 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:54 AM EDT     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 01:30 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:14 PM EDT     1.80 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:52 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:36 PM EDT     -2.14 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.6-0.80.10.91.210.60.1-0.5-0.9-1.4-1.7-1.3-0.50.51.31.81.71.20.6-0.1-0.7-1.4-2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.